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This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages. The results show that the MENA countries are more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the Euro Area or the United States, in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and the emergence of China as a key driver of the global economy. Outward spillovers from the GCC region and MENA oil exporters are likely to be stronger in their immediate geographical proximity, but also have global implications.

As the world’s largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia faces the same pressures as any other government to expand its economy. Saudi Vision 2030 is to reduce the country’s reliance on oil exports and revenues. One of the main goals of Saudi Vision 2030 is to increase the share of GDP that does not come from oil. Dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration is used to look at how oil exports and exports of goods other than oil affect GDP growth. The results of the dynamic ARDL simulation show that there is both long-term and short-term cointegration between the variables. The dynamic ARDL simulation tests rely on the presence of cointegration to show that a 1% increase in oil exports will boost Saudi Arabia’s economic growth by about 0.48% in the long run and 0.18% in the short run, depending on the type of time frame. In the same way, the results about non-oil exports showed that an increase in non-oil exports would boost Saudi Arabia’s economic growth by 0.26 percentage points in the long run and by 0.16 percentage points in the short run. This is a good sign of Saudi Arabia’s efforts to diversify its economy away from oil exports and make room for international investors to help the country reach its Vision 2030 goals. AcknowledgmentThis study is supported via funding from Prince Sattam bin Abdulaziz University project number (PSAU/2023/R/1444).

The influence of the main export product on the main import product is the focus of any country. In this regard, since oil and oil products are the main export commodity of Azerbaijan, their impact on the import of machinery and equipment necessary for the development of the agricultural and agro −processing industries, which are the main imported products, was chosen as the subject of study. The purpose of the article was to assess the impact of the export of oil and oil products on the import of machinery and equipment necessary for the development of the agricultural sector and the agro −processing industry. The study used data for the period from 1999 to 2020. ARDL and ECM methods were applied and compared with FMOLS, DOLS and CCR as a validation. During the study, 9 hypotheses were proposed. All hypotheses have been proven to some extent. The results of the study show that, like all industries, the agricultural sector depends on the oil factor. Thus, the export of oil to the republic has a positive effect on imports and, of course, on the imports of many machineries and equipment necessary for the development of the agricultural sector, especially agricultural machinery for tillage and harvesting, equipment for the food industry and equipment for processing agricultural products. The overall result of the research was a recommendation to further acceleration of work aimed at diversifying the economy and developing the non −oil sector, similar to the results of other similar studies (researches investigating resource −exporting economies).

Oil and non-oil export played essential role in economic activity in Saudi Arabia with amount average of 841816.0 and 162654.6 Saudi riyal respectively in the period 2005- 2019. This study investigates from an empirical point of view the impact of oil and non-oil export on economic performance in Saudi Arabia during the period 2005 to 2019. Data were collected from General Authority for Statistics (GAS) in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Ordinary least square method has been applied to estimate linear and non-linear form of the study models. The obtained results showed that oil export and non-oil export have positive impact on economic performance in Saudi Arabia during period of the study.

The analysis in this paper suggests that import and export volume elasticities are markedly lower in oil-exporting Middle East and Central Asian countries than in non-oil countries in the region. A key implication of this finding is that a real appreciation of the exchange rate in oil-exporting countries would achieve little in terms of expenditure switching: an appreciation does not boost imports and non-oil exports constitute only a small share of GDP and total trade in these countries. Therefore, while a real appreciation lowers the current account surplus of oil-exporting countries through valuation effects, the contribution to lowering global imbalances may be more limited.

This paper examines the structural competitiveness of oil-rich economies in sub-Saharan Africa relative to other major oil-exporting developing countries, and investigates reasons for systematic differences in the non-oil export performance across these economies. The analysis reveals that oil-rich Africa lags behind other oil-exporters in terms of diversification, global market share and the overall investment climate. The poor performance of their nonoil sector can be largely attributed to weak infrastructure and institutional quality. The results also show that institutional quality is a significant determinant of the extent to which oil abundance affects the competitiveness of the non-oil sector; thereby explaining the divergent experiences of oil-rich economies across the world. This implies that oil wealth does not necessarily weaken the non-oil tradable sector; countries may mitigate the impact of Dutch disease and benefit from oil booms if revenues are used prudently to reduce oil dependence.

This article makes four contributions. First, it investigates the extent to which the U.S. fracking boom has caused Arab oil exports to decline since late 2008. Second, the article quantifies for the first time by how much the U.S. fracking boom has lowered the global price of oil. Using a novel econometric methodology, it is shown that in mid-2014, for example, the Brent price of crude oil was lower by $10 than it would have been in the absence of the fracking boom. Third, the article provides evidence that the decline in Saudi net foreign assets between mid-2014 and August 2015 would have been reduced by 27% in the absence of the fracking boom. Finally, the article discusses the policy choices faced by Saudi Arabia and other Arab oil producers.

In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries.