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This paper develops a path for the global energy system up to 2050, presenting a new application of the open-source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS) to the community. It allows quite disaggregate energy and emission analysis: Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD) uses a system of linear equations of the energy system to search for lowest-cost solutions for a secure energy supply, given externally defined constraints, mainly in terms of CO2-emissions. The general algebraic modeling system (GAMS) version of OSeMOSYS is updated to the newest version and, in addition, extended and enhanced to include e.g., a modal split for transport, an improved trading system, and changes to storages. The model can be scaled from small-scale applications, e.g., a company, to cover the global energy system. The paper also includes an application of GENeSYS-MOD to analyze decarbonization scenarios at the global level, broken down into 10 regions. Its main focus is on interdependencies between traditionally segregated sectors: electricity, transportation, and heating; which are all included in the model. Model calculations suggests that in order to achieve the 1.5–2 °C target, a combination of renewable energy sources provides the lowest-cost solution, solar photovoltaic being the dominant source. Average costs of electricity generation in 2050 are about 4 €cents/kWh (excluding infrastructure and transportation costs).

Responding to the Paris Agreement and climate change mitigation, Indonesia aims to reach net zero by 2060 or sooner. Due to Indonesia’s dependence on coal and growing consumption, alternative sources of clean energy are imperative for meeting its rising energy needs and reducing energy-related greenhouse gas emissions to achieve the energy transition. This project aims to examine Indonesia’s opportunities and potential to achieve low carbon ambition in the energy sector and identify alternative pathways for the energy transition in Indonesia. In this study, the open-source energy modelling system (OSeMOSYS), which is a long-term energy system modelling tool, is employed to compare electricity generation, investment, and carbon dioxide emissions between business-as-usual and five alternative scenarios. Six scenarios, including business as usual, least-cost, two coal-phrase out and two net zero aligned with national climate targets and optimal scenarios, were simulated across different target years. The results show that the net zero (NZ) scenario is more cost-effective and emits fewer greenhouse gases than the other scenarios in meeting Indonesia’s future energy demand. However, achieving net zero by 2050 (NZ50) results in significantly lower CO2 emissions (10,134 MtCO2), which is less than half of the emissions in the net zero by 2060 (NZ60) scenario (16,849 MtCO2) at a similar cost (6229 and 6177 billion USD, respectively). This paper’s insights emphasise that large-scale renewable energy deployment and coal retirement are critical pathways to reaching carbon neutrality and achieving the energy mix transition.

This paper presents an innovative approach to addressing critical global challenges in long-term energy planning for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The paper proposes and tests an international enabling environment, a delivery ecosystem, and a community of practice. These components are integrated into workflows that yield four self-sustaining capacity-development outcomes. Planning long-term energy strategies in LMICs is particularly challenging due to limited national agency and poor international coordination. While outsourcing energy planning to foreign experts may appear to be a viable solution, it can lead to a reduction in government agency (the ability of a government to make its own informed analysis and decisions). Additionally, studies commissioned by external experts may have conflicting terms of reference, and a lack of familiarity with local conditions can result in misrepresentations of on-the-ground realities. It is argued here that enhancing national agency and analytical capacity can improve coordination and lead to more robust planning across line ministries and technical assistance (TA) providers. Moreover, the prevailing consulting model hampers the release and accessibility of underlying analytics, making it difficult to retrieve, reuse, and reconstruct consultant outputs. The absence of interoperability among outputs from various consultants hinders the ability to combine and audit the insights they provide. To overcome these challenges, five strategic principles for energy planning in LMICs have been introduced and developed in collaboration with 21 international and research organizations, including the AfDB, IEA, IRENA, IAEA, UNDP, UNECA, the World Bank, and WRI. These principles prioritize national ownership, coherence and inclusivity, capacity, robustness, transparency and accessibility. In this enabling environment, a unique delivery ecosystem consisting of knowledge products and activities is established. The paper focuses on two key knowledge products as examples of this ecosystem: the open-source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS) and the power system flexibility tool (IRENA FlexTool). These ecosystem elements are designed to meet user-friendliness, retrievability, reusability, reconstructability, repeatability, interoperability, and audibility (U4RIA) goals. To ensure the sustainability of this ecosystem, OpTIMUS is introduced—a community of practice dedicated to maintaining, supporting, expanding, and nurturing the elements within the ecosystem. Among other ecosystem elements, training and research initiatives are introduced, namely the Energy Modelling Platform for Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia-Pacific as well as the ICTP Joint Summer School on Modelling Tools for Sustainable Development. Once deployed via workflows, the preliminary outcomes of these capacity-development learning pathways show promise. Further investigation is necessary to evaluate their long-term impacts, scalability, replication, and deployment costs.

Ethiopia is a low-income country, with low electricity access (45%) and an inefficient power transmission network. The government aims to achieve universal access and become an electricity exporter in the region by 2025. This study provides an invaluable perspective on different aspects of Ethiopia’s energy transition, focusing on achieving universal access and covering the country’s electricity needs during 2015–2065. We co-developed and investigated three scenarios to examine the policy and technology levels available to the government to meet their national priorities. To conduct this analysis, we soft-linked OnSSET, a modelling tool used for geospatial analysis, with OSeMOSYS, a cost-optimization modelling tool used for medium to long-run energy planning. Our results show that the country needs to diversify its power generation system to achieve universal access and cover its future electricity needs by increasing its overall carbon dioxide emissions and fully exploit hydropower. With the aim of achieving universal access by 2025, the newly electrified population is supplied primarily by the grid (65%), followed by stand-alone (32%) technologies. Similarly, until 2065, most of the electrified people by 2025 will continue to be grid-connected (99%). The country’s exports will increase to 17 TWh by 2065, up from 832 GWh in 2015, leading to a cumulative rise in electricity export revenues of 184 billion USD.

In September 2015 UN announced 17 Sustainable Development goals (SDG) from which goal number 7 envisions universal access to modern energy services for all by 2030. In Kenya only about 46% of the population currently has access to electricity. This paper analyses hypothetical scenarios, and selected implications, investigating pathways that would allow the country to reach its electrification targets by 2030. Two modelling tools were used for the purposes of this study, namely OnSSET and OSeMOSYS. The tools were soft-linked in order to capture both the spatial and temporal dynamics of their nature. Two electricity demand scenarios were developed representing low and high end user consumption goals respectively. Indicatively, results show that geothermal, coal, hydro and natural gas would consist the optimal energy mix for the centralized national grid. However, in the case of the low demand scenario a high penetration of stand-alone systems is evident in the country, reaching out to approximately 47% of the electrified population. Increasing end user consumption leads to a shift in the optimal technology mix, with higher penetration of mini-grid technologies and grid extension.

The increasing prevalence of wicked problems, such as climate change, requires a transformation in education that equips students with the skills, competencies and knowledge to address these complex challenges. Wicked problems are characterised by their incomplete, contradictory, and ever-changing requirements, rendering them difficult to resolve due to intricate interdependencies. Nexus thinking offers a valuable approach to these problems, as it emphasises the interconnectedness of various systems, fostering a more comprehensive understanding of the challenges at hand. In this paper, we propose the use of Climate, Land, Energy, and Water (CLEWs) modelling as an innovative pedagogical strategy tool to cultivate nexus thinking among students. Building upon the pioneering CLEWs pedagogical work of Shivakumar et al., in their ‘Introduction to CLEWs’ Open Learn course, we demonstrate how this approach can be utilised in a Higher Education (HE) setting in the form of a Masters’ module for geography students.

Egypt has the potential to generate a significant amount of energy from renewable technologies, in particular solar PV, concentrated solar power (CSP), and onshore and offshore wind. The energy sector is reliant on fossil fuels, particularly natural gas, for electricity production and is at risk of locking itself into a high carbon pathway. Globally, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with national energy sectors is a target outlined in the UN’s Paris Agreement. To reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions associated with a higher dependence on fossil fuels, Egypt must consider upscaling renewable energy technologies (RETs) to achieve a clean energy transition (CET). This research modelled six scenarios using clicSAND for OSeMOSYS to identify the technologies and policy target improvements that are needed to upscale RETs within Egypt’s energy sector. The results showed that solar PV and onshore wind are key technologies to be upscaled to contribute towards Egypt’s CET. The optimal renewable target is the International Renewable Energy Agency’s (IRENA) target of 53% of electricity being sourced from RETs by 2030, which will cost USD 16.4 billion more up to 2035 than Egypt’s current Integrated Sustainable Energy Strategy (ISES) target of 42% by 2035; it also saves 732.0 MtCO2 over the entire modelling period to 2070. Socio-economic barriers to this transition are considered, such as recent discoveries of natural gas reserves combined with a history of energy insecurity, political instability impacting investor confidence, and a lack of international climate funding. The paper concludes with policy recommendations that would enable Egypt to progress towards achieving a CET.

Access to clean and sustainable energy technologies is critical for all nations, particularly developing countries in Africa. Ghana has committed to ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, aiming for 10% and 20% variable renewable energy integration by 2030 and 2070, respectively. This study explores potential pathways for Ghana to achieve its renewable energy production targets amidst a growing energy demand. An open-source energy modelling tool was used to assess four scenarios accounting for current policies and additional alternatives to pursue energy transition goals. The scenarios include Business as Usual (BAU), Government Target (GT), Renewable Energy (REW), and Net Zero (NZ). The results indicate that total power generation and installed capacity would increase across all scenarios, with natural gas accounting for approximately 60% of total generation under the BAU scenario in 2070. Total electricity generation is projected to grow between 10 and 20 times due to different electrification levels. Greenhouse gas emission reduction is achievable with nuclear energy being critical to support renewables. Alternative pathways based on clean energy production may provide cost savings of around USD 11–14 billion compared to a Business as Usual case. The findings underscore the necessity of robust policies and regulatory frameworks to support this transition, providing insights applicable to other developing countries with similar energy profiles. This study proposes a unique contextualized open-source modelling framework for a data-constrained, lower–middle-income country, offering a replicable approach for similar contexts in Sub-Saharan Africa. Its novelty also extended towards contributing to the knowledge of energy system modelling, with nuclear energy playing a crucial role in meeting future demand and achieving the country’s objectives under the Paris Agreement.

Low carbon transition strategies of power plants are crucial to meet China’s ‘Dual Carbon’ targets. While the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region, the ‘capital economic circles’ of China, is suffering from serious air pollution, air quality co-benefits of low carbon transition policies in electricity system in BTH area remain unclear. Here, we estimate the impacts of low carbon transition policies, including one BAU, six single and five combined scenarios, in electricity system in BTH area on installed power capacity, CO 2 emissions, air quality and human health through 2060 based on open source energy modeling system and extend response surface model ERSM models. Results show that the total installed capacity under single and combined scenarios (except RE and Tech single scenarios) fluctuates around the BAU level of 310.5 GW in 2060. While all single and combined scenarios would generally achieve ‘carbon peak’ in BTH electricity system before 2030, only S4 (combining technological progress, renewable energy development and CCUS) and S5 (in additional to S4, including gas-fired power generation instead of coal-fired power generation) scenarios have the potential to realize carbon neutrality by 2060. The magnitude of reductions in air pollutant emissions and improvement in air quality in BTH area from the BAU level in 2060 under combined scenarios, especially S4 and S5, generally exceed that of six single scenarios. Importantly, S5 in 2060 contributes to about 8528 avoided premature mortalities in BTH area, which are more effective than any other scenarios. The results suggest that S5 is a promising low carbon transition policy to achieve environmental improvement and produce health benefits.

Land availability is a critical dimension in high-renewable power generation strategies, as renewable technologies typically require substantially more area for infrastructure deployment and operational spacing than incumbent fossil-fuel-powered technologies. Land use has mainly been considered in energy system modeling studies as a post-processing evaluation, at a sub-national scale, or in non-Mediterranean regions. Consequently, there remains a gap in endogenizing land requirements within an energy planning optimization model for a Mediterranean country with high renewable potential, thereby allowing examination of the trade-offs between land use, mitigation and economic efficiency. In this study, we address this gap by focusing on the Greek power system, developing alternative land supply curves, and integrating them into an optimization model for the Greek power sector (OSeMOSYS-Greece). This approach generates a large ensemble of mitigation scenarios with varying land intensities and cost requirements. The results highlight strong substitution effects between land-intensive and less-land-intensive renewable technologies. Notably, onshore wind power generation is found to decline by up to approximately 70% by 2050 between the land-unconstrained case and the most stringent land-constrained scenario, chiefly substituted by offshore wind and, to a lesser extent, solar PV. Furthermore, under integrated energy-land planning, land occupation for power generation can be reduced to 3% of Greece’s total land area by 2050, compared to around 11% under a land-unconstrained pathway.