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This study analyzed data from 67.8 million persons in 195 countries between 1980 and 2015 using the Global Burden of Disease study data and methods. The rapid increase in the prevalence and disease burden of elevated BMI highlights the need for continued focus on this major issue.

Obesity is a risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Whether obesity affects outcomes among those with T2D and atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) remains uncertain. Our objective was to investigate the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and ASCVD outcomes among TECOS participants with T2D and ASCVD. BMI categories were defined as underweight/normal weight (BMI <25 kg/m2), overweight (25-29.9 kg/m2), obese class I (30-34.9 kg/m2), obese class II (35-39.9 kg/m2), and obese class III (≥ 40 kg/m2). Asian-specific BMI categories were applied to Asian participants. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine associations between baseline BMI and a composite CV outcome (CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or hospitalization for unstable angina). For 14,534 TECOS patients with available BMI, mean age was 65.5 years; 29.3% were female, 32.0% non-White, and 23.1% insulin-treated, with median 3 years' follow-up. At baseline, 11.6% (n = 1686) were underweight/normal weight, 38.1% (n = 5532) overweight, 32.2% (n = 4683) obese class I, 12.4% (n = 1806) obese class II, and 5.7% (n = 827) obese class III. The composite CV outcome occurred in 11.4% (n = 1663) of participants; the outcome risk was lower, compared with under/normal weight, in overweight (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.71-0.98) and obese class I (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.67-0.93) individuals. Obesity was not associated with worse glycemic control. The majority of TECOS participants with ASCVD and T2D were overweight or obese, yet overweight or obese class I individuals had lower CV risk than those who were under/normal weight. These results suggest the presence of an obesity paradox, but this paradox may reflect an epidemiological artifact rather than a true negative association between normal weight and clinical outcomes.

BACKGROUND:Despite a call to study the effect of weight gain pattern on development of gestational diabetes mellitus, few studies have correctly adjusted for independent effects of gain after the first trimester. We used a conditional percentile approach to model the independent association between first and second trimester weight-gain trajectories and development of gestational diabetes. METHODS:We sampled women delivering singleton infants from 1998-2010 at Magee-Womens Hospital in Pittsburgh, PA (n=124,590) using a case–cohort design. We modeled weight-gain trajectories in the first and second trimesters of pregnancy using conditional weight-gain percentiles, and used multivariable logistic regression to assess independent associations of the trajectory with gestational diabetes. We studied associations separately by pre-pregnancy body mass index category. RESULTS:The final cohort included 806 women with gestational diabetes and 4,819 randomly sampled women who delivered without gestational diabetes. In normal-weight women, every standard deviation increase in weight gain in the first trimester above her predicted gain was associated with a 23% increased odds of gestational diabetes [95% CI0.2%, 51%]. Second trimester gain trajectory was not associated with gestational diabetes (OR1.1, [95% CI0.9, 1.3]) although the direction of effect was positive. This pattern was similar in obese class I and II but not in overweight and obese class III women. CONCLUSIONS:An upward weight gain trajectory in the first trimester was positively associated with gestational diabetes for women of most pre-pregnancy BMI categories. Second trimester weight gain trajectory was not associated with gestational diabetes for any group.

Objective: Liraglutide, a once-daily human glucagon-like peptide-1 analog, induced clinically meaningful weight loss in a phase 2 study in obese individuals without diabetes. The present randomized phase 3 trial assessed the efficacy of liraglutide in maintaining weight loss achieved with a low-calorie diet (LCD). Methods: Obese/overweight participants (⩾18 years, body mass index ⩾30 kg m −2 or ⩾27 kg m −2 with comorbidities) who lost ⩾5% of initial weight during a LCD run-in were randomly assigned to liraglutide 3.0 mg per day or placebo (subcutaneous administration) for 56 weeks. Diet and exercise counseling were provided throughout the trial. Co-primary end points were percentage weight change from randomization, the proportion of participants that maintained the initial ⩾5% weight loss, and the proportion that lost ⩾5% of randomization weight (intention-to-treat analysis). ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00781937. Results: Participants ( n =422) lost a mean 6.0% (s.d. 0.9) of screening weight during run-in. From randomization to week 56, weight decreased an additional mean 6.2% (s.d. 7.3) with liraglutide and 0.2% (s.d. 7.0) with placebo (estimated difference −6.1% (95% class intervals −7.5 to −4.6), P <0.0001). More participants receiving liraglutide (81.4%) maintained the ⩾5% run-in weight loss, compared with those receiving placebo (48.9%) (estimated odds ratio 4.8 (3.0; 7.7), P <0.0001), and 50.5% versus 21.8% of participants lost ⩾5% of randomization weight (estimated odds ratio 3.9 (2.4; 6.1), P <0.0001). Liraglutide produced small but statistically significant improvements in several cardiometabolic risk factors compared with placebo. Gastrointestinal (GI) disorders were reported more frequently with liraglutide than placebo, but most events were transient, and mild or moderate in severity. Conclusion: Liraglutide, with diet and exercise, maintained weight loss achieved by caloric restriction and induced further weight loss over 56 weeks. Improvements in some cardiovascular disease-risk factors were also observed. Liraglutide, prescribed as 3.0 mg per day, holds promise for improving the maintenance of lost weight.

This book addresses the obesity epidemic from a political, economic and social perspective. Examining the populations that suffer the greatest from political and economic decision-making associated with obesity prevalence, this book utilizes a contemporary framework to discuss obesity. While it does examine the behavioral risks associated with rising obesity rates, it also explores the political level, by evaluating theories in social justice and the political economy that foster or restrict at-risk behaviors. It considers the economic context through rising income inequality levels in the US. It also critiques the actions of higher institutions, including transnational corporations, as social contributors to this epidemic. Finally, it compares global and national challenges of the epidemic--back cover.

Over the past several decades, the overweight and obesity epidemic in the USA has resulted in a significant health and economic burden. Understanding current trends and future trajectories at both national and state levels is crucial for assessing the success of existing interventions and informing future health policy changes. We estimated the prevalence of overweight and obesity from 1990 to 2021 with forecasts to 2050 for children and adolescents (aged 5–24 years) and adults (aged ≥25 years) at the national level. Additionally, we derived state-specific estimates and projections for older adolescents (aged 15–24 years) and adults for all 50 states and Washington, DC. In this analysis, self-reported and measured anthropometric data were extracted from 134 unique sources, which included all major national surveillance survey data. Adjustments were made to correct for self-reporting bias. For individuals older than 18 years, overweight was defined as having a BMI of 25 kg/m2 to less than 30 kg/m2 and obesity was defined as a BMI of 30 kg/m2 or higher, and for individuals younger than 18 years definitions were based on International Obesity Task Force criteria. Historical trends of overweight and obesity prevalence from 1990 to 2021 were estimated using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. A generalised ensemble modelling approach was then used to derive projected estimates up to 2050, assuming continuation of past trends and patterns. All estimates were calculated by age and sex at the national level, with estimates for older adolescents (aged 15–24 years) and adults aged (≥25 years) also calculated for 50 states and Washington, DC. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of the posterior distributions of the respective estimates. In 2021, an estimated 15·1 million (95% UI 13·5–16·8) children and young adolescents (aged 5–14 years), 21·4 million (20·2–22·6) older adolescents (aged 15–24 years), and 172 million (169–174) adults (aged ≥25 years) had overweight or obesity in the USA. Texas had the highest age-standardised prevalence of overweight or obesity for male adolescents (aged 15–24 years), at 52·4% (47·4–57·6), whereas Mississippi had the highest for female adolescents (aged 15–24 years), at 63·0% (57·0–68·5). Among adults, the prevalence of overweight or obesity was highest in North Dakota for males, estimated at 80·6% (78·5–82·6), and in Mississippi for females at 79·9% (77·8–81·8). The prevalence of obesity has outpaced the increase in overweight over time, especially among adolescents. Between 1990 and 2021, the percentage change in the age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased by 158·4% (123·9–197·4) among male adolescents and 185·9% (139·4–237·1) among female adolescents (15–24 years). For adults, the percentage change in prevalence of obesity was 123·6% (112·4–136·4) in males and 99·9% (88·8–111·1) in females. Forecast results suggest that if past trends and patterns continue, an additional 3·33 million children and young adolescents (aged 5–14 years), 3·41 million older adolescents (aged 15–24 years), and 41·4 million adults (aged ≥25 years) will have overweight or obesity by 2050. By 2050, the total number of children and adolescents with overweight and obesity will reach 43·1 million (37·2–47·4) and the total number of adults with overweight and obesity will reach 213 million (202–221). In 2050, in most states, a projected one in three adolescents (aged 15–24 years) and two in three adults (≥25 years) will have obesity. Although southern states, such as Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Kentucky, are forecast to continue to have a high prevalence of obesity, the highest percentage changes from 2021 are projected in states such as Utah for adolescents and Colorado for adults. Existing policies have failed to address overweight and obesity. Without major reform, the forecasted trends will be devastating at the individual and population level, and the associated disease burden and economic costs will continue to escalate. Stronger governance is needed to support and implement a multifaceted whole-system approach to disrupt the structural drivers of overweight and obesity at both national and local levels. Although clinical innovations should be leveraged to treat and manage existing obesity equitably, population-level prevention remains central to any intervention strategies, particularly for children and adolescents. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.