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15,456 result(s) for "Ocean warming"
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Categorizing and Naming MARINE HEATWAVES
Considerable attention has been directed at understanding the consequences and impacts of long-term anthropogenic climate change. Discrete, climatically extreme events such as cyclones, floods, and heatwaves can also significantly affect regional environments and species, including humans. Climate change is expected to intensify these events and thus exacerbate their effects. Climatic extremes also occur in the ocean, and recent decades have seen many high-impact marine heatwaves (MHWs)—anomalously warm water events that may last many months and extend over thousands of square kilometers. A range of biological, economic, and political impacts have been associated with the more intense MHWs, and measuring the severity of these phenomena is becoming more important. Progress in understanding and public awareness will be facilitated by consistent description of these events. Here, we propose a detailed categorization scheme for MHWs that builds on a recently published classification, combining elements from schemes that describe atmospheric heatwaves and hurricanes. Category I, II, III, and IV MHWs are defined based on the degree to which temperatures exceed the local climatology and illustrated for 10 MHWs. While there is a long-term increase in the occurrence frequency of all MHW categories, the largest trend is a 24% increase in the area of the ocean where strong (Category II) MHWs occur. Use of this scheme can help explain why biological impacts associated with different MHWs can vary widely and provides a consistent way to compare events. We also propose a simple naming convention based on geography and year that would further enhance scientific and public awareness of these marine events.
Evolution of Antarctic Sea Ice Ahead of the Record Low Annual Maximum Extent in September 2023
The 2023 Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) maximum on 7 September was the lowest annual maximum in the satellite era (16.98 × 106 km2), with the largest contributions to the anomaly coming from the Ross (37.7%, −0.57 × 106 km2) and Weddell (32.9%, −0.49 × 106 km2) Seas. The SIE was low due to anomalously warm (>0.3°C) upper‐ocean temperatures combined with anomalously strong northerly winds impeding the ice advance during the fall and winter. Northerly winds of >12 ms−1 in the Weddell Sea occurred because of negative pressure anomalies over the Antarctic Peninsula, while those in the Ross Sea were associated with extreme blocking episodes off the Ross Ice Shelf. The Ross Sea experienced an unprecedented SIE decrease of −1.08 × 103 km2 d−1 from 1 June till the annual maximum. The passage of quasi‐stationary and explosive polar cyclones contributed to periods of southward ice‐edge shift in both sectors. Plain Language Summary Sea ice provides a vital habitat for life in the Southern Ocean, and plays an important role in the ocean circulation, the dynamics of the Earth's climate, the biogeochemical cycle, and the regional ecosystem. Climatologically, Antarctic sea ice expands northwards from the continent each autumn and winter. However, in 2023 an unprecedented slow ice expansion occurred in the Southern Ocean ahead of the annual maximum on 7 September of 16.98 × 106 km2, which was 1.46 × 106 km2 below the long‐term average. In fact, the area covered by ice remained at a record low level every day from 21 April 2023 until 11 November 2023. Our findings suggest that an impact of upper‐ocean warming and changes in winds, combined with heat and moisture fluxes, extreme winds and high ocean waves associated with polar cyclones (storms), contributed to these record low ice conditions. In particular, cyclones caused episodes of exceptional slow ice expansion or even retreat, leading to negative ice anomalies. For instance, the ice‐edge in the Weddell Sea was moved southwards quickly in a few days (up to 256 km southward) with an ice area loss of ∼2.3 × 105 km2, equivalent to the size of United Kingdom. Key Points The 2023 Antarctic sea ice extent maximum on 7 September (16.98 × 106 km2) was the lowest annual maximum in the satellite era Anomalous upper‐ocean warming and strong northerly winds contributed to impeding the ice expansion in the Ross and Weddell Seas Quasi‐stationary and explosive polar cyclones contributed to periods of southward ice‐edge shift in both sectors
Increased Summer Monsoon Rainfall Over Northwest India Caused by Hadley Cell Expansion and Indian Ocean Warming
From 1979 to 2022, the summer monsoon precipitation has increased by a substantial 40% over Northwest India compared to the 1980s. This wetting trend aligns with the future projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). The observationally constrained reanalysis data indicates that significant sea surface warming in the western equatorial Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea is likely driving this increase in rainfall by enhancing the cross‐equatorial monsoonal flow and associated evaporation. We demonstrate that the strengthening of the cross‐equatorial monsoon winds is due to the rapid warming of the Indian Ocean and the enhanced Pacific Ocean trade winds, which result from the poleward shift and expansion of the Hadley cell. These strengthened winds boost the latent heat flux (evaporation), leading to increased moisture transport to Northwest India. Plain Language Summary From 1979 to 2022, the summer monsoon precipitation has increased by a substantial 40% over Northwest India compared to the 1980s. The analysis suggests that a noticeable warming of the sea surface in the western equatorial Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea could be causing this increase in rainfall. This warming strengthens the winds crossing the equator in the Indian Ocean and increases evaporation. The study also shows that the monsoon winds are strengthened due to the rapid warming of the Indian Ocean and the enhanced Pacific Ocean trade winds. These stronger winds cause more evaporation, which means more moisture is carried from the ocean to the land, leading to increased monsoon rainfall. Key Points Large increase in summer monsoon precipitation over Northwest India The strengthening of the monsoon winds and the Indian Ocean warming drives increasing evaporation Poleward shift and expansion of high‐pressure belts and the Indian Ocean warming are responsible for the strengthening of winds
Indian Ocean warming modulates global atmospheric circulation trends
The Indian Ocean has warmed rapidly and notably at a faster rate than the other tropical ocean basins in the latter half of the twentieth century. We conduct sensitivity experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model to determine the impact of Indian Ocean surface warming on large-scale global atmospheric circulation trends and rainfall distribution, in terms of its pattern and magnitude. Indian Ocean warming drives changes in the local Indian Ocean Walker cell that leads to anomalous easterlies over the Pacific Ocean and strengthens the Pacific Walker Circulation. The anomalous Indian Ocean Walker cell results in anomalous subsidence over Central Africa and the tropical Atlantic, where it is associated with a precipitation decrease over the equator. During austral summer, Indian Ocean warming is associated with the intensification of the northern hemisphere Hadley cell and strengthening of the extratropical atmospheric circulation resembling a positive North Atlantic Oscillation. During austral winter, it is associated with weakening of the southern hemisphere Hadley cell and strengthening of a positive Southern Annular Mode pattern. More intensive warming in the western region of the Indian Ocean basin compared to the east has a significant impact on rainfall trends in the basin, easterly wind trend in the western Pacific and intensity of Hadley circulation changes. It is, however, the Indian Ocean warming across the entire basin that dominates the drying of the tropical Atlantic and the trends in extratropical modes of variability. This study suggests the Indian Ocean warming could have potentially influenced global atmospheric circulation trends observed in the recent decades.
Southern Ocean Warming
The Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in global climate. With no continental barriers, it distributes climate signals among the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans through its fast-flowing, energetic, and deep-reaching dominant current, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The unusual dynamics of this current, in conjunction with energetic atmospheric and ice conditions, make the Southern Ocean a key region for connecting the surface ocean with the world ocean’s deep seas. Recent examinations of global ocean temperature show that the Southern Ocean plays a major role in global ocean heat uptake and storage. Since 2006, an estimated 60%–90% of global ocean heat content change associated with global warming is based in the Southern Ocean. But the warming of its water masses is inhomogeneous. While the upper 1,000 m of the Southern Ocean within and north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are warming rapidly, at a rate of 0.1°–0.2°C per decade, the surface subpolar seas south of this region are not warming or are slightly cooling. However, subpolar abyssal waters are warming at a substantial rate of ~0.05°C per decade due to the formation of bottom waters on the Antarctic continental shelves. Although the processes at play in this warming and their regional distribution are beginning to become clear, the specific mechanisms associated with wind change, eddy activity, and ocean-ice interaction remain areas of active research, and substantial challenges persist to representing them accurately in climate models.
Impacts of Antarctic Sea Ice Change on Global Warming Pattern Inferred From CMIP6 Intermodel Spread
Global climate models generally project a robust decline in Antarctic sea ice (ASI) under increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) while an ASI expansion has been observed over the recent four decades. Motivated by the apparent model‐observation discrepancy, this study investigates the influences of ASI change on global warming pattern by exploiting the spread across models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The results indicate a close intermodel relationship between ASI change and global sea surface warming pattern. Models with less ASI loss tend to produce a weaker warming globally, especially in the Southern Ocean, subtropical southeastern Pacific Ocean, and tropical Pacific Ocean. This extratropical teleconnection to the tropics agrees with the theory of cross‐equator energy transport. By correcting the modeled ASI change with observations, we can bring the SST warming pattern closer to observations, especially in the Southern Hemisphere and tropics. Plain Language Summary Over the past 40 years, Antarctic sea ice (ASI) has expanded despite the steady rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). However, global climate models generally fail to replicate the ASI trend. Such a model‐observation discrepancy casts doubts on model projections of ocean surface warming pattern under greenhouse forcing. Here, we find a close intermodel relationship between the ASI change and the SST warming pattern across CMIP6 models, with positive intermodel spread in ASI tending to have weaker sea surface warming globally, especially in the Southern Ocean, the subtropical southeastern and the tropical Pacific Ocean. When the modeled ASI changes are adjusted to the observed ASI trend in the recent four decades, the model‐simulated warming pattern appears to be closer to observations. Key Points There is a significant negative relationship between Antarctic sea ice loss and global warming across CMIP6 models The impacts of Antarctic sea ice change on global warming pattern agree with cross‐equatorial energy transport theory Modeled global warming pattern is closer to observations by constraining the Antarctic sea ice change in the recent four decades
Satellite Evidence for Strengthened M2 Internal Tides in the Past 30 Years
Satellite altimetry sea surface height measurements from 1993 to 2022 are used to show the strengthened mode‐1 M2 internal tides in the past 30 years. Two mode‐1 M2 internal tide models M9509 and M1019 are constructed using the data in 1995–2009 and 2010–2019, respectively. The results show that the global mean M2 internal tides strengthened by 6% in energy. However, the internal tide strengthening is spatially inhomogeneous. Significantly strengthened internal tides are observed in a number of regions including the Aleutian Ridge and the Madagascar‐Mascarene region. Weakened internal tides are observed in the central Pacific. On global average, M1019 leads M9509 by about 10° (20 min in time), suggesting that the propagation speed of M2 internal tides increased. M9509 and M1019 are evaluated using independent altimetry data. The results show that M9509 and M1019 perform better for the data in 1993–1994 and 2020–2022, respectively. Plain Language Summary It is not surprising that ocean stratification increases with global ocean warming, because the upper ocean stores more extra heat and becomes lighter. Given that ocean stratification becomes stronger, it is naturally expected that internal tides should strengthen with global ocean warming as well. However, it is extremely difficult to quantify internal tide strengthening on a global scale. Here we show for the first time that mode‐1 M2 internal tides strengthened in the past 30 years using satellite altimetry data from 1993 to 2022. We further show that the internal tide strengthening is spatially inhomogeneous, which has important implications on the downward heat transport. The strengthened internal tides and eventual ocean mixing may facilitate the vertical transport of tracers and nutrients, compensating partly for the reduction caused by strengthened ocean stratification. The results suggest that the long‐term changes should be taken into account in making internal tide correction for the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission. Key Points Mode‐1 M2 internal tide models M9509 and M1019 are constructed using satellite altimetry data in 1995–2009 and 2010–2019, respectively Mode‐1 M2 internal tides strengthened and their speeds increased; however, the internal tide strengthening is spatially inhomogeneous M9509 (M1019) performs better in making internal tide correction to independent satellite altimetry data in 1993–1994 (2020–2022)
The reef-building coral Siderastrea siderea exhibits parabolic responses to ocean acidification and warming
Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric CO2 over this century are predicted to cause global average surface ocean pH to decline by 0.1–0.3 pH units and sea surface temperature to increase by 1–4°C. We conducted controlled laboratory experiments to investigate the impacts of CO2-induced ocean acidification (pCO2 = 324, 477, 604, 2553 µatm) and warming (25, 28, 32°C) on the calcification rate of the zooxanthellate scleractinian coral Siderastrea siderea, a widespread, abundant and keystone reef-builder in the Caribbean Sea. We show that both acidification and warming cause a parabolic response in the calcification rate within this coral species. Moderate increases in pCO2 and warming, relative to near-present-day values, enhanced coral calcification, with calcification rates declining under the highest pCO2 and thermal conditions. Equivalent responses to acidification and warming were exhibited by colonies across reef zones and the parabolic nature of the corals' response to these stressors was evident across all three of the experiment's 30-day observational intervals. Furthermore, the warming projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the end of the twenty-first century caused a fivefold decrease in the rate of coral calcification, while the acidification projected for the same interval had no statistically significant impact on the calcification rate—suggesting that ocean warming poses a more immediate threat than acidification for this important coral species.
Impacts of Global Change on Ocean Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) Cycling
The marine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) pool is an important player in the functioning of marine ecosystems. DOC is at the interface between the chemical and the biological worlds, it fuels marine food webs, and is a major component of the Earth’s carbon system. Here, we review the research showing impacts of global change stressors on the DOC cycling, specifically: ocean warming and stratification, acidification, deoxygenation, glacial and sea ice melting, changed inflow from rivers, changing ocean circulation and upwelling, and wet/dry deposition. A unified outcome of the future impacts of these stressors on the global ocean DOC production and degradation is not possible, due to regional differences and differences in stressors impacts, but general patterns for each stressor are presented.
Southwest Pacific Ocean Warming Driven by Circulation Changes
An area of ocean centered on 179°E, 46°S has warmed to full depth since 2006, with surface warming around 5 times the global rate. This Subtropical Front area is associated with a confluence of warm, salty, subtropical water from the north carried in a western boundary current and cold, fresh, subantarctic water from the south carried in the northernmost branch of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Temperature and salinity changes observed from Argo floats indicate that the Subtropical Frontal Zone has moved west ∼120 km, creating this area of strong warming analogous to changes in extension regions of other western boundary currents. The warming is a result of changes in the local flows of subantarctic water, evident in satellite altimeter data and 1,000 m Argo trajectories, which in turn likely result from changes in meridional ocean heat content and winds. The warming has placed this biologically‐significant region in almost perpetual marine heatwave conditions. Plain Language Summary An area of ocean east of New Zealand has warmed strongly since 2006 through the full ocean depth. The warming has been driven by a change in Southern Ocean currents, which, in turn appear to result from changes in the ocean heat content gradient between mid and high latitudes and changes in wind. The change is occurring in a biologically highly‐productive area of importance to Orange Roughy and Hoki fisheries. Key Points There has been strong, full‐depth ocean warming since 2006 in a region south of Chatham Islands, New Zealand South of Chatham Islands, the Subtropical Frontal Zone has moved 120 km west The warming is a result of diminished Subantarctic Water flows along northern Campbell Plateau and around Bounty Trough