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The study evaluates the feasibility of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries to form an Optimum Currency Area (OCA) through the analysis of shock correlation within the OCA framework. Employing a structural vector auto regression (SVAR) model proposed by Blanchard and Quah, the analysis encompasses both external and domestic shocks affecting individual countries. The study employs four variables: world real GDP, domestic real GDP as a proxy for output, the real effective exchange rate, and the inflation rate as a proxy for price level, to estimate the shocks. Subsequent analysis includes ANOVA, impulse response function (IRF), and variance decomposition to discern shock magnitudes, adjustment dynamics, and underlying determinants of variability. Empirical results show that BRICS countries display symmetric responses to external shock, however, with overall different sources of variation in the responses to domestic supply, demand, and monetary shocks. The results of the analysis using the ANOVA test, IRF, and variance decomposition also highlight the nuanced disparities across BRICS countries in terms of demand, and monetary shocks, indicative of differences in transmission mechanisms and policy responses. The study underscores the implication of aligning exchange rate mechanisms and monetary policies in facilitating the convergence of shock levels, thereby fostering economic stability among BRICS countries. This study provides a critical analysis of the feasibility of BRICS countries forming an Optimum Currency Area (OCA) through the application of Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) modeling. By analyzing the correlation and dynamics of both external and domestic macroeconomic shocks, the research highlights significant disparities in how these shocks affect BRICS countries. Despite these differences, the study identifies a strong symmetric response to external shocks. These findings underscore the challenges of aligning exchange rate mechanisms and monetary policies among these diverse economies, yet also reveal the potential for economic stability through coordinated policy responses to symmetric external shocks. This work is pivotal in informing policy decisions on deeper economic integration within the BRICS bloc. It also suggests that with careful policy design, particularly focusing on strengthening economic interdependencies and mitigating asymmetric shock, the BRICS bloc could enhance its economic stability and global influence. Therefore, the study also offers valuable insights into the feasibility of a common currency or enhanced economic integration for emerging economies considering monetary unions in a complex global financial landscape. The study's recommendations provide a roadmap for BRICS countries to navigate the complexities of economic integration, making it a significant contribution to the field of international economics and regional development strategies.

Our study presents a pioneering bibliometric analysis of optimum currency areas literature and monetary integration, utilising 9,228 research outputs published between 1960 and 2022. We employ the biblioshiny function in R-studio to comprehensively analyse this data. Our findings reveal a growing body of literature on optimum currency areas, with increased author productivity. Remarkably, influential authors, despite their lower research volume, receive extensive citations and publish in prestigious journals such as The Quarterly Journal of Economics and The American Economic Review. Additionally, our analysis exposes a lack of representation from non-European/American institutions, as well as an underrepresentation of female and non-White researchers. We propose future research directions to address these gaps. Notably, our study is the first to conduct a bibliometric analysis on optimum currency areas and monetary integration, highlighting its originality.

So far, empirical research on an ex-post benchmark of the euro adoption has relied on the synthetic control method by Abadie & Gardeazabal (Am Econ Rev 93:112-132, 2003) and Abadie et al. (J Am Stat Assoc 105:493-505, 2010, Am J Polit Sci, 59:495-510, 2015). However, the evidence obtained with this method is not overly consistent, leading to the conclusion that the method is not too robust to different settings of the adjustment screws. Using a new method developed by Harvey & Thiele (J Appl Econ 36:71–85, 2021) based on structural time series models, I find that France and Italy are clear losers from the euro while there are no real winners until 2019. Spain, Netherlands, Greece gain in the period before the financial crisis, but afterwards they lose. In fact, only the German economy is robust to the two crises but it loses until 2008. Relating the theories of optimum currency areas to the estimated gaps of the euro adopters from their synthetic controls, I find that openness, real convergence, and net migration are the main drivers of gains from a euro adoption, while the main drivers of losses are low levels of competitiveness, fiscal instability and labour market rigidity. Examining the crisis channels of the financial and euro crisis shows that fiscal instability, labour market rigidity and also business cycle synchronization cause large losses during the crises. Net migration helps to dampen these shocks. While openness is beneficial during the pre-crises period, it cannot help dampen the shock of the crises.

PurposeThis paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks and the degree of synchronization in the impulse responses of output, inflation and trade to a one standard deviation shock to non-oil commodities price index and exchange rates within the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) countries from 1990q1 to 2020q1.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses the structural vector autoregressive model to isolate the underlying structural shocks and compares them with the West African Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries.FindingsFindings from the study suggest that correlations of underlying structural shocks are more profound in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. Impulse responses of output to price and exchange rate shocks are more symmetric in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. However, impulse responses of inflation to price and exchange rate shocks are symmetric in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU and responses of trade in both sub-groups are not uniform.Practical implicationsThe paper concludes that the WAMZ does not constitute an Optimum Currency Area concerning the correlations of the structural shocks and output. However, it has achieved convergence in inflation and there are adequate adjustment mechanisms to shocks in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU. Therefore, the WAMZ may not suffer from joining the monetary union. Thus, economic Community of West African States may take steps to roll out the monetary union.Originality/valueThe paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks, impulse responses of output and inflation to shocks to commodities price and exchange rates in the WAMZ and compares them with the WAEMU.

The mobility of factors of production from the very beginnings of the theory of the optimal currency area (OCA) stands out as one of the primary mechanisms for achieving a balance of payments, i.e. sustainability of the monetary union (Mundell criterion). However, there is a significant qualitative difference between the monetary union of countries with similar income levels and the one with different development stages Namely, in the first case, labor mobility, as a rule, has short-term economic effects, while it has a longer-term (more negative) impact – especially on the long-run aggregate supply (LRAS). Many Eastern European countries, which expressed a desire to become part of European integration and the monetary union after the communist ruin, experienced this. In a previous paper, the authors set the thesis about “Impossible Trinity of Developing Countries”. In this paper, the aspiration is to confirm the validity of this theory by analyzing Greece within the period 1999-2020, specifically observing the impact of three variables (fiscal policy, social development level, and level of economic freedom) on the emigration of the population under conditions of monetary union and labor force mobility. The results obtained in this research indicate that the fiscal policy in the observed period was the most significant factor in explaining migration trends. The implications for developing countries that are currently entering (such as Croatia) or intend to enter the monetary union with more developed countries in the future are particularly significant.

Using a Bayesian dynamic factor model, I examine the comovement of output, investment and consumption growth among Euro area countries before and after the introduction of the Euro. For that purpose, I compare a pre-Euro period (1991–1998) to a Euro period (2000–2010) and identify a common Euro factor for each period separately. I find that the comovement of main macroeconomic variables and the common factor increases for core Eurozone countries from the first to the second period, while it decreases for most peripheral economies. This can be interpreted as a rise in business cycle synchronization for the core and a respective decline for the periphery. Different to the implications made by the endogeneity argument of currency areas (Frankel and Rose in Econ J 108(449):1009–1025, 1998 ), my evidence suggest that the introduction of the Euro has fostered imbalances between core and peripheral Eurozone countries.

Applying Unsupervised Machine Learning techniques to a set of nominal variables (based on the optimum currency area [OCA] theory and the Maastricht Treaty criteria) and industrial indicators (based on similar production patterns), this paper aims to identify potential candidates for a monetary integration in South America (SA). The main conclusion is that, according to the clustering of the nominal and industrial indicators, the countries in best position for a hypothetical monetary integration in SA are Chile, Colombia, and Perú (and Ecuador to a lesser extent); countries that are generally members of the same cluster. This group of economies, which belong to the Pacific Alliance, are in a better position to meet various criteria for regional monetary integration, such as nominal convergence and similar production patterns

This paper investigates the relationship between the political and economic aspects of monetary unions. After illustrating the recent change in approach to the theory of optimum currency areas (section  2 ), the paper analyzes the momentous implications of union members maintaining political sovereignty (section  3 ) for the notion of currency area optimality and the viability of monetary unions (section  4 ).

We take stock of the history of the European Monetary Union and pegged exchange-rate regimes in recent decades. The post-Bretton Woods greater financial integration and under-regulated financial intermediation have increased the cost of sustaining a currency area and other forms of fixed exchange-rate regimes. Financial crises illustrated that fast-moving asymmetric financial shocks interacting with real distortions pose a grave threat to the stability of currency areas and fixed exchange-rate regimes. Members of a currency union with closer financial links may accumulate asymmetric balance-sheet exposure over time, becoming more susceptible to sudden-stop crises. In a phase of deepening financial ties, countries may end up with more correlated business cycles. Down the road, debtor countries that rely on financial inflows to fund structural imbalances may be exposed to devastating sudden-stop crises, subsequently reducing the correlation of business cycles between currency area’s members, possibly ceasing the gains from membership in a currency union. A currency union of developing countries anchored to a leading global currency stabilizes inflation at a cost of inhibiting the use of monetary policy to deal with real and financial shocks. Currency unions with low financial depth and low financial integration of its members may be more stable at a cost of inhibiting the growth of sectors depending on bank funding.

While the pre-1914 mass migrations have been widely studied, the related pattern of emigrants' remittances is still largely untouched. This article aims at filling this gap by analyzing the contribution of remittances to financial stability. In the optimum currency area theory, labor mobility can ease the adjustment mechanism for countries under fixed exchange rate regimes. We confirm this claim by showing that emigrants' remittances reduced the incidence of financial disturbances among a sample of emerging economies characterized by substantial emigration. This result underscores the benefits for emerging economies from opening up to international factor flows, despite the associated financial turbulence. “A fantastic rain of gold.” Thus observers in the decades between the nineteenth and the twentieth century described the influx of capital toward Italy generated by emigration remittances. These flows were spread piecemeal across the countryside of the entire peninsula, especially into the poorest regions of marginal mountain agriculture.1