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The mere preannouncement of a new product can affect consumer choice, thus complicating preannouncement strategy. This is because a preannounced product that is unavailable immediately can still be one of the alternatives in a consumer’s mind at the time of choice. Such unavailable products, also known as phantom products, influence the reference point that consumers compare alternatives to when making a choice, as has been widely demonstrated in experimental studies. Thus, in addition to encouraging consumers to postpone purchase in favor of a future product, preannouncement also changes their preference for the currently available products when consumers do not prefer to postpone. In this paper we explore preannouncement strategy by analyzing a model that incorporates the effect of new product preannouncement (NPP) on consumer preferences and compare the results with a benchmark case in which consumer preferences across the existing products are not influenced by preannouncement. We find that when we take into account the effect of NPP on consumer preferences across the existing products, although postponement of purchase by some consumers remains beneficial, the preference for the current product offering with a lower quality can suffer so much that the significant lowering of current profits is not offset by future gains. Thus, preannouncement may no longer be the optimal strategy for the firm with a lower-quality product, which in turn explains the “Osborne effect.” Our results also challenge the conventional wisdom in new product preannouncement literature. This paper was accepted by Juanjuan Zhang, marketing.

Thea Slocombe, nâee Osborne, is trying to settle into normal, domestic life with Drew and his two children in Broad Campden. But in the course of an attempt to make friends locally, she finds the body of a close neighbor and suddenly feels much less settled and secure. No longer a house-sitter, she has no choice but to stay in the village and deal with whatever happens next.

National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure–the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index–on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0–42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2–55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The magic treehouse takes Jack and Annie to a moon base in the future where they continue to search for the fourth thing they need to free their friend Morgan from the magician's spell.

For British playwright, John Osborne, there are no brave causes; only people who muddle through life, who hurt, and are often hurt in return. This study deals with Osborne's complete oeuvre and critically examines its form and technique; the function of the gaze; its construction of gender; and the relationship between Osborne's life and work. Gilleman has also traced the evolution of Osborne's reception by turning to critical reviews at the beginning of each chapter.

Steve Osborne has seen a thing or two in his twenty years in the New York Police Department (NYPD) -- some harmless things, some definitely not. In \"Stakeout,\" Steve and his partner mistake a Manhattan dentist for an armed robbery suspect and reduce the man down to a puddle of snot and tears when questioning him. In \"Mug Shot,\" the mother of a suspected criminal makes a strange request and provides a sobering reminder of the humanity at stake in his profession. And in \"Home,\" the image of his family provides the adrenaline he needs to fight for his life when assaulted by two armed and violent crackheads. From his days as a rookie cop to the time spent patrolling in the Anti-Crime Unit -- and his visceral, harrowing recollections of working during 9/11 -- Steve Osborne's stories capture both the absurdity of police work and the bravery of those who do it. His stories will speak to those nostalgic for the New York City of the 1980s and '90s, a bygone era of when the city was a crazier, more dangerous (and possibly more interesting) place.

The self-heating effect can be considered as a catastrophic phenomenon that occurs in polymers and polymer–matrix composites (PMCs) subjected to fatigue loading or vibrations. This phenomenon appears in the form of temperature growth in such structures due to their relatively low thermal conductivities. The appearance of thermal stress resulting from temperature growth and the coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) mismatch between fibers and neighboring polymer matrix initiates and/or accelerates structural degradation and consequently provokes sudden fatigue failure in the structures. Therefore, it is of primary significance for a number of practical applications to first characterize the degradation mechanism at the nano-, micro- and macroscales caused by the self-heating phenomenon and then minimize it through the implementation of numerous approaches. One viable solution is to cool the surfaces of considered structures using various cooling scenarios, such as environmental and operational factors, linked with convection, contributing to enhancing heat removal through convection. Furthermore, if materials are appropriately selected regarding their thermomechanical properties involving thermal conductivity, structural degradation may be prevented or at least minimized. This article presents a benchmarking survey of the conducted research studies associated with the fatigue performance of cyclically loaded PMC structures and an analysis of possible solutions to avoid structural degradation caused by the self-heating effect.

The spectrophotometric Bradford assay was adapted for the analysis of gluten protein contents (gliadins and glutenins) of spelt, durum wheat, emmer and einkorn. The assay was applied to a set of 300 samples, including 15 cultivars each of common wheat, spelt, durum wheat, emmer and einkorn cultivated at four locations in Germany in the same year. The total protein content was equally influenced by location and wheat species, however, gliadin, glutenin and gluten contents were influenced more strongly by wheat species than location. Einkorn, emmer and spelt had higher protein and gluten contents than common wheat at all four locations. However, common wheat had higher glutenin contents than einkorn, emmer and spelt resulting in increasing ratios of gliadins to glutenins from common wheat (< 3.8) to spelt, emmer and einkorn (up to 12.1). With the knowledge that glutenin contents are suitable predictors for high baking volume, cultivars of einkorn, emmer and spelt with good predicted baking performance were identified. Finally, spelt, emmer and einkorn were found to have a higher nitrogen partial factor productivity than common and durum wheat making them promising crops for a more sustainable agriculture.