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An energy criterion model of coal and gas outbursts was established to study the energy conversion mechanism. Ideal gas law was utilized to establish a correlation between dissipated energy (i.e., energy dissipated during outbursts) and accumulated energy (potential energy leading to outbursts) in gas-containing briquettes. This relationship, along with the expression for the energy criterion, was derived from the deformation of briquettes under load, which led to instability and eventual failure expulsion. Hence, physical simulation experiments on coal and gas outbursts were conducted to analyze the energy conversion mechanism and to determine the change law of the initiation energy criterion index for outbursts. Besides, energy conditions were verified for the initiation of coal and gas outbursts. Potential energy includes the expansive deformation energy of adsorbed gas desorption, the expansive deformation energy of free gas, the elastic potential energy of gas-bearing briquettes under the stored load, and the gravitational potential energy work of unstable coal. Besides, the dissipation energy of outbursts included coal-crushing energy and coal-throwing power. The potential energy-to-dissipation energy ratios of outbursts were 1.07 and 1.04 in two groups of experiments. These values greater than 1 surpassed the threshold of the activation energy criterion, resulting in coal and gas outbursts. The firmness coefficient and Poisson's ratio of coal were negatively correlated with the energy criterion index, while the elasticity modulus, density, and initial velocity of gas emissions were positively correlated with the energy criterion index. The five experimental parameters (i.e., initial gas pressure, coal amount, maximum principal stress, average velocity of coal outbursts, and falling height of unstable coal) were positively correlated with the energy criterion index. The findings provide further insight into the mechanism of coal and gas outbursts, establishing a basis for their control, prevention, and dynamic warning systems.

Coal and gas outburst is a frequent dynamic disaster during underground coal mining activities. After about 150 years of exploration, the mechanisms of outbursts remain unclear to date. Studies on outburst mechanisms worldwide focused on the physicochemical and mechanical properties of outburst-prone coal, laboratory-scale outburst experiments and numerical modeling, mine-site investigations, and doctrines of outburst mechanisms. Outburst mechanisms are divided into two categories: single-factor and multi-factor mechanisms. The multi-factor mechanism is widely accepted, but all statistical phenomena during a single outburst cannot be explained using present knowledge. Additional topics about outburst mechanisms are proposed by summarizing the phenomena that need precise explanation. The most appealing research is the microscopic process of the interaction between coal and gas. Modern physical-chemical methods can help characterize the natural properties of outburst-prone coal. Outburst experiments can compensate for the deficiency of first-hand observation at the scene. Restoring the original outburst scene by constructing a geomechanical model or numerical model and reproducing the entire outburst process based on mining environment conditions, including stratigraphic distribution, gas occurrence, and geological structure, are important. Future studies can explore outburst mechanisms at the microscale.

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have been intensely investigated in High Mountain Asia (HMA) in recent years and are the most well-known hazard associated with the cryosphere. As glaciers recede and surrounding slopes become increasingly unstable, such events are expected to increase, although current evidence for an increase in events is ambiguous. Many studies have investigated individual events, and while several regional inventories exist, they either do not cover all types of GLOF or are geographically constrained. Further, downstream impacts are rarely discussed. Previous inventories have relied on academic sources and have not been combined with existing inventories of glaciers and lakes. In this study, we present the first comprehensive inventory of GLOFs in HMA, including details on the time of their occurrence, processes of lake formation and drainage involved, and downstream impacts. We document 697 individual GLOFs that occurred between 1833 and 2022. Of these, 23 % were recurring events from just three ephemeral ice-dammed lakes. In combination, the documented events resulted in 6906 fatalities of which 906 can be attributed to 24 individual GLOF events, which is 3 times higher than a previous assessment for the region. The integration of previous inventories of glaciers and lakes within this database will inform future assessments of potential drivers of GLOFs, allowing more robust projections to be developed. The database and future, updated versions are traceable and version-controlled and can be directly incorporated into further analysis. The database is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7271187 (Steiner and Shrestha, 2023), while the code including a development version is available on GitHub.

Sustained glacier melt in the Himalayas has gradually spawned more than 5,000 glacier lakes that are dammed by potentially unstable moraines. When such dams break, glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) can cause catastrophic societal and geomorphic impacts. We present a robust probabilistic estimate of average GLOFs return periods in the Himalayan region, drawing on 5.4 billion simulations. We find that the 100-y outburst flood has an average volume of 33.5+3.7/−3.7 × 10⁶ m³ (posterior mean and 95% highest density interval [HDI]) with a peak discharge of 15,600+2,000/−1,800 m³·s−1. Our estimated GLOF hazard is tied to the rate of historic lake outbursts and the number of present lakes, which both are highest in the Eastern Himalayas. There, the estimated 100-y GLOF discharge (∼14,500 m³·s−1) is more than 3 times that of the adjacent Nyainqentanglha Mountains, and at least an order of magnitude higher than in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Western Himalayas. The GLOF hazard may increase in these regions that currently have large glaciers, but few lakes, if future projected ice loss generates more unstable moraine-dammed lakes than we recognize today. Flood peaks from GLOFs mostly attenuate within Himalayan headwaters, but can rival monsoon-fed discharges in major rivers hundreds to thousands of kilometers downstream. Projections of future hazard from meteorological floods need to account for the extreme runoffs during lake outbursts, given the increasing trends in population, infrastructure, and hydropower projects in Himalayan headwaters.

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are among the most severe cryospheric hazards in the Third Pole, encompassing the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding Himalayas, Hindu Kush, and Tianshan Mountains. Recent studies on glacial lake changes and GLOF characteristics and risks in this region have shown scattered and insufficiently detailed features. Here, we conduct an appraisal of the GLOF risks by combining high-resolution satellite images, case-by-case high-precision GLOF modeling, and detailed downstream exposure data. The glacial lake changes from 2018 to 2022 in the region were primarily driven by the accelerated expansion of proglacial lakes. The GLOF frequency has exhibited a significant increasing trend since 1980, with intensified activity in Southeastern Tibet and the China-Nepal border area over the past decade. Approximately 6,353 km 2 of land could be at risk from potential GLOFs, posing threats to 55,808 buildings, 105 hydropower projects, 194 km 2 of farmland, 5,005 km of roads, and 4,038 bridges. This study directly responds to the need for local disaster prevention and mitigation strategies, highlighting the urgent requirement of reducing GLOF threats in the Third Pole and the importance of regional cooperation. The recent accelerated expansion of glacial lakes and increased glacial lake outburst flood activities in the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings indicate that numerous communities and infrastructure downstream are at a higher flood risk than previously understood.

Quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs) are luminous X-ray outbursts recurring on hour timescales, observed from the nuclei of a growing handful of nearby low-mass galaxies. Their physical origin is still debated, and usually modeled as (a) accretion disk instabilities or (b) interaction of a supermassive black hole (SMBH) with a lower mass companion in an extreme mass-ratio inspiral (EMRI). EMRI models can be tested with several predictions related to the short- and long-term behavior of QPEs. In this study, we report on the ongoing 3.5 yr NICER and XMM-Newton monitoring campaign of eRO-QPE1, which is known to exhibit erratic QPEs that have been challenging for the simplest EMRI models to explain. We report (1) complex, non-monotonic evolution in the long-term trends of QPE energy output and inferred emitting area; (2) the disappearance of the QPEs (within NICER detectability) in 2023 October, and then the reappearance by 2024 January at a luminosity of ∼100× fainter (and temperature of ∼3× cooler) than the initial discovery; (3) radio non-detections with MeerKAT and Very Large Array observations partly contemporaneous with our NICER campaign (though not during outbursts); and (4) the presence of a possible ∼6 day modulation of the QPE timing residuals, which aligns with the expected nodal precession timescale of the underlying accretion disk. Our results tentatively support EMRI–disk collision models powering the QPEs, and we demonstrate that the timing modulation of QPEs may be used to jointly constrain the SMBH spin and disk density profile.

In order to explore the relationship between IEERG and outburst intensity and verify the feasibility of the former in predicting coal and gas outburst, a series tests with different gases and different gas pressures were conducted on the basis of self-developed coal and gas outburst simulation system and IEERG measuring instrument. The results show that with the increase of gas pressure, the IEERG increases gradually. Under the same gas pressure, the coal has the strongest adsorption capacity for CO 2 , followed by CH 4 and N 2 . When the IEERG is less than 24.40 mJ·g −1 , no outburst will occur. When the IEERG is greater than 24.40 mJ·g −1 , weak outburst will occur. When the IEERG is greater than 34.72 mJ·g −1 , strong outburst will occur. This shows that the magnitude of IEERG is closely related to the outburst. The larger the IEERG, the greater the possibility of outburst and the greater the intensity of outburst. It is feasible to predict the risk of outburst using IEERG, and it can be quantified.

The global research community is concerned about the potential impact of Lake Outburst Floods (LOFs) worldwide due to glacier retreat and permafrost melting as a consequence of global climate change. These conditions have led to the formation of new potentially dangerous lakes. Extreme climatic conditions, high topography, and active tectonics highlight the vulnerability of the Andean region. Additionally, the region is exposed to increasing urbanization pressures in mountainous areas. This review presents an updated inventory of LOF events in the Argentinean Andes (31–51° S) as a complete catalog is currently lacking. The main characteristics and hydrodynamic parameters were compiled from the collected historical LOFs, while missing data were estimated in this study. These findings provide insight into the dynamics and outreach of this type of threatening phenomena in the Andean region. Possible triggering mechanisms were investigated to better understand the main causes of LOFs in the Andes. This understanding is crucial for the development of effective prevention and mitigation measures against regional lake-related hazards.

Coal and gas outbursts are small-scale geological disasters controlled by tectonic movement, and tectonic coal is widespread in outburst zones. In this study, we compare tectonic and intact coal specimens to examine the basic properties of tectonic coal. We estimate the different energies and limits of the crushing work ratio of coal from five typical outburst cases using on-site outburst data, and discuss the relationship between outbursts and tectonic coal. The results show that tectonic coal is a product of tectonic movement and its original primary structure is destroyed during the tectonic process. Compared with intact coal, tectonic coal shows low strength properties and a crushing work ratio of 22.11 J/m2. The specific surface area and total pore volume of the minipores, mesopores, and macropores of the coal strongly increase under conditions of intense tectonism, which indicates that tectonic coal has a very high capacity for rapid initial gas desorption. An adequate supply of gas is required to transport outburst coal, such that the existence of coal particles smaller than the critical diameter is important. Our calculations indicate that the crushing work ratio of coal from the five outburst case ranges from 22.19 to 78.67 J/m2. Only the crushing work ratio of tectonic coal satisfies the requirement for these cases. Therefore, the properties of the tectonic coal and crushing work ratio for the five cases indicate that the widespread occurrence of tectonic coal plays a crucial role in outbursts.

A coal and gas outburst can lead to a catastrophic failure in a coal mine. These outbursts usually occur where the distribution of coal seam gas is abnormal, commonly in tectonic belts. To study the effects of the abnormal distribution of this gas on outbursts, an experimental apparatus to collect data on simulated coal seam outbursts was constructed. Experiments on specimens containing discrete gas-enriched areas were run to induce artificial gas outbursts and further study of these outbursts using data from the experiment was conducted. The results suggest that more gas and outburst energy are contained in gas-enriched areas and this permits these areas to cause an outburst easily, even though the gas pressure in them is lower. During mining, the disappearance of the sealing effect of a coal pillar establishes the occurrence conditions for an outburst. When the enriched gas and outburst energy in the gas-enriched area is released suddenly, a reverse unloading wave and a high gas pressure gradient are formed, which have tension effects on the coal. Under these effects, the fragmentation degree of the coal intensifies and the intensity of the outburst increases. Because a high gas pressure gradient is maintained near the exposed surface and the enriched energy release reduces the coal strength, the existence of a gas-enriched area in coal leads to a faster outburst and the average thickness of the spall is smaller than where is no gas-enriched area.