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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)—one of Earth’s major ocean circulation systems—redistributes heat on our planet and has a major impact on climate. Here, we compare a variety of published proxy records to reconstruct the evolution of the AMOC since about ad  400. A fairly consistent picture of the AMOC emerges: after a long and relatively stable period, there was an initial weakening starting in the nineteenth century, followed by a second, more rapid, decline in the mid-twentieth century, leading to the weakest state of the AMOC occurring in recent decades. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is currently distinctly weaker than it has been for the last millennium, according to a synthesis of proxy records derived from a range of techniques.

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 000 years ago) has been a major focus for evaluating how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future using paleoclimate reconstructions. A new generation of climate models has been used to generate LGM simulations as part of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Here, we provide a preliminary analysis and evaluation of the results of these LGM experiments (PMIP4, most of which are PMIP4-CMIP6) and compare them with the previous generation of simulations (PMIP3, most of which are PMIP3-CMIP5). We show that the global averages of the PMIP4 simulations span a larger range in terms of mean annual surface air temperature and mean annual precipitation compared to the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations, with some PMIP4 simulations reaching a globally colder and drier state. However, the multi-model global cooling average is similar for the PMIP4 and PMIP3 ensembles, while the multi-model PMIP4 mean annual precipitation average is drier than the PMIP3 one. There are important differences in both atmospheric and oceanic circulations between the two sets of experiments, with the northern and southern jet streams being more poleward and the changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation being less pronounced in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations than in the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations. Changes in simulated precipitation patterns are influenced by both temperature and circulation changes. Differences in simulated climate between individual models remain large. Therefore, although there are differences in the average behaviour across the two ensembles, the new simulation results are not fundamentally different from the PMIP3-CMIP5 results. Evaluation of large-scale climate features, such as land–sea contrast and polar amplification, confirms that the models capture these well and within the uncertainty of the paleoclimate reconstructions. Nevertheless, regional climate changes are less well simulated: the models underestimate extratropical cooling, particularly in winter, and precipitation changes. These results point to the utility of using paleoclimate simulations to understand the mechanisms of climate change and evaluate model performance.

Previous work has shown that anthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing drives a strengthening in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in CMIP6 historical simulations over 1850–1985, but the mechanisms have not been fully understood. Across CMIP6 models, it is shown that there is a strong correlation between surface heat loss over the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) and the forced strengthening of the AMOC. Despite the link to AA forcing, the AMOC response is not strongly related to the contribution of anomalous downwelling surface shortwave radiation to SPNA heat loss. Rather, the spread in AMOC response is primarily due to the spread in turbulent heat loss. We hypothesize that turbulent heat loss is larger in models with strong AA forcing because the air advected over the ocean is colder and drier, in turn because of greater AA-forced cooling over the continents upwind, especially North America. The strengthening of the AMOC also feeds back on itself positively in two distinct ways: by raising the sea surface temperature and hence further increasing turbulent heat loss in the SPNA, and by increasing the sea surface density across the SPNA due to increased northward transport of saline water. A comparison of key indices suggests that the AMOC response in models with strong AA forcing is not likely to be consistent with observations.

Central elements of the climate system are at risk for crossing critical thresholds (so-called tipping points) due to future greenhouse gas emissions, leading to an abrupt transition to a qualitatively different climate with potentially catastrophic consequences. Tipping points are often associated with bifurcations, where a previously stable system state loses stability when a system parameter is increased above a well-defined critical value. However, in some cases such transitions can occur even before a parameter threshold is crossed, given that the parameter change is fast enough. It is not known whether this is the case in high-dimensional, complex systems like a state-of-the-art climate model or the real climate system. Using a global ocean model subject to freshwater forcing, we show that a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation can indeed be induced even by small-amplitude changes in the forcing, if the rate of change is fast enough. Identifying the location of critical thresholds in climate subsystems by slowly changing system parameters has been a core focus in assessing risks of abrupt climate change. This study suggests that such thresholds might not be relevant in practice, if parameter changes are not slow. Furthermore, we show that due to the chaotic dynamics of complex systems there is no well-defined critical rate of parameter change, which severely limits the predictability of the qualitative long-term behavior. The results show that the safe operating space of elements of the Earth system with respect to future emissions might be smaller than previously thought.

The role of the mid‐latitude seaway between the proto‐Paratethys and the North Sea on the early Paleogene ocean circulation is examined with a state‐of‐art earth system model. The early Eocene simulations here demonstrate that the open mid‐latitude seaway captures most relatively fresh surface water from the Arctic and Greenland‐Norwegian Sea and prohibits them from leaking into the Labrador Sea, thus benefiting the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, the closure of the seaway triggers the AMOC reduction as more relatively fresh surface water enters the Labrador Sea, and the AMOC finally shuts down. Together with geological reconstructions, our results also provide insights into understanding the evolution of the Atlantic‐Arctic oceanic gateways during the Paleogene. Plain Language Summary Recent geological evidence demonstrated that a mid‐latitude seaway connected the proto‐Paratethys sea and the North Sea during the early Eocene. Then, this connection was closed since the late Eocene‐early Oligocene. Here, using climate modeling, we investigated the effects of this mid‐latitude seaway evolution, particularly in modulating the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Our simulations show that the open seaway prohibits the relatively fresh Arctic surface water from leaking into the Labrador Sea and thus favors the formation of AMOC. On the contrary, the closed seaway allows more relatively fresh Arctic surface water to influence the Labrador Sea, thus triggering the AMOC reduction. Our study pinpoints a controlling role of the mid‐latitude seaway in modulating global ocean circulation during the early Paleogene. Key Points The evolution of the mid‐latitude seaway in the early Paleogene influences ocean circulation The opening of the seaway favors the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), while its closing leads to AMOC shutdown

Future projections indicate the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken and shoal in response to global warming, but models disagree widely over the amount of weakening. We analyze projected AMOC weakening in 27 CMIP6 climate models, in terms of changes in three return pathways of the AMOC. The branch of the AMOC that returns through diffusive upwelling in the Indo‐Pacific, but does not later upwell in the Southern Ocean (SO), is particularly sensitive to warming, in part, because shallowing of the deep flow prevents it from entering the Indo‐Pacific via the SO. The present‐day strength of this Indo‐Pacific pathway provides a strong constraint on the projected AMOC weakening. However, estimates of this pathway using four observationally based methods imply a wide range of AMOC weakening under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario of 29%–61% by 2100. Our results suggest that improved observational constraints on this pathway would substantially reduce uncertainty in 21st century AMOC decline. Plain Language Summary The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a system of ocean currents that move warm surface waters from the south to the north of the Atlantic Ocean where they cool, sink, and return southward at depth. Changes in the AMOC would have wide‐ranging impacts on our climate. It is predicted to weaken as the climate warms during the 21st century, but the extent of weakening varies among different climate models. We show that AMOC weakening is greatest in models that have a large exchange of water between the AMOC and the Indo‐Pacific Ocean along a specific pathway. The magnitude of this ocean pathway, inferred from four observation‐based estimates of the global overturning circulation, is uncertain. By using these estimates and analyzing the relationship between the aforementioned ocean pathway and AMOC weakening across many climate models, we can predict how the real‐world AMOC will change. Our findings indicate that by 2100, under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario, the AMOC will weaken by 29%–61%. This highlights the importance of reducing differences between observational estimates of the ocean's overturning pathways to reduce uncertainty in future AMOC weakening and to improve the representation of these pathways in climate models. Key Points The magnitude of 21st century Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) weakening in CMIP6 models is highly correlated with an AMOC pathway into the Indo‐Pacific Ocean The real‐world “Indo‐Pacific diffusive” AMOC pathway inferred from observation‐based estimates is used to constrain future AMOC weakening Under high‐end greenhouse gas forcing, AMOC weakening based on this emergent constraint relationship ranges from 29% to 61% by 2100

A 10-member ensemble simulation with the NASA GISS-E2-1-G climate model shows a clear bifurcation in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength under the SSP2–4.5 extended scenario. At 26°N, the bifurcation leads to 8 strong AMOC and 2 much weaker AMOC states, while at 48°N, it leads to 8 stable AMOC-on and 2 nearly AMOC-off states, the latter lasting approximately 800 years. A variety of fully coupled models have demonstrated tipping points in AMOC through hosing experiments, i.e., prescribing sufficient freshwater inputs in the subpolar North Atlantic. In the GISS simulations, there are no external freshwater perturbations. The bifurcation arises freely in the coupled system and is the result of stochastic variability (noise-induced bifurcation) associated with sea ice transport and melting in the Irminger Sea after a slowing of the greenhouse gas forcing. While the AMOC strength follows the near shutdown of the Labrador Sea deep convection initially, the Irminger Sea salinity and deep mixing determine the timing of the AMOC recovery or near collapse at 48°N, which varies widely across the ensemble members. Other feedbacks such as ice-albedo, ice-evaporation, E − P , and the overturning salt-advection feedback play a secondary role that may enhance or reduce the primary mechanism which is ice melt. We believe this is the first time that a coupled climate model has shown such a bifurcation across an initial condition ensemble and might imply that there is a chance for significant and prolonged AMOC slow down due to internal variability of the system.

Sea level rise (SLR) shows important spatiotemporal variability. A better understanding of characteristics and mechanisms of the variability is critical for future SLR projection and coastal preparedness. Here we analyze various observational and modeling data of sea level and its components, atmospheric pressure and winds, and ocean circulation in the North Atlantic. Both the century-long tide gauge data and the more recent altimetry data reveal a rapid decadal acceleration of SLR during 2010–22 along the U.S. East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico coast. The acceleration is most notable on the Southeast and Gulf Coasts, as quantified by the decadal rise rate, extreme annual sea level departure from the long-term trend, as well as the sea level record-breaking frequency and magnitude. Our analysis suggests that this SLR acceleration is largely a lagged response to the observed slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in 2009–10. In the North Atlantic, the response is characterized by a large-scale pattern of contrast changes in dynamic sea level between the Eastern Subpolar Gyre and the U.S. Southeast and Gulf Coasts. The latest global climate model generally captures this observed pattern and projects that further increase in greenhouse gas forcing will modify it over the twenty-first century. The faster SLR on the Southeast and Gulf Coasts, at a rate of more than 10 mm yr −1 during 2010–22, coincided with active and even record-breaking North Atlantic hurricane seasons in recent years. As a consequence, the elevated storm surge exacerbated coastal flooding and damage particularly on the Gulf Coast.

We explore the mechanisms by which Arctic sea ice decline affects the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in a suite of numerical experiments perturbing the Arctic sea ice radiative budget within a fully coupled climate model. The imposed perturbations act to increase the amount of heat available to melt ice, leading to a rapid Arctic sea ice retreat within 5 years after the perturbations are activated. In response, the AMOC gradually weakens over the next ∼100 years. The AMOC changes can be explained by the accumulation in the Arctic and subsequent downstream propagation to the North Atlantic of buoyancy anomalies controlled by temperature and salinity. Initially, during the first decade or so, the Arctic sea ice loss results in anomalous positive heat and salinity fluxes in the subpolar North Atlantic, inducing positive temperature and salinity anomalies over the regions of oceanic deep convection. At first, these anomalies largely compensate one another, leading to a minimal change in upper ocean density and deep convection in the North Atlantic. Over the following years, however, more anomalous warm water accumulates in the Arctic and spreads to the North Atlantic. At the same time, freshwater that accumulates from seasonal sea ice melting over most of the upper Arctic Ocean also spreads southward, reaching as far as south of Iceland. These warm and fresh anomalies reduce upper ocean density and suppress oceanic deep convection. The thermal and haline contributions to these buoyancy anomalies, and therefore to the AMOC slowdown during this period, are found to have similar magnitudes. We also find that the related changes in horizontal wind-driven circulation could potentially push freshwater away from the deep convection areas and hence strengthen the AMOC, but this effect is overwhelmed by mean advection.

Previous studies emphasized a significant linkage between Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation multidecadal variability (AMOC‐MV) and subsurface temperature in the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA). However, as AMOC‐MV weakens under global warming, it remains unclear whether this linkage persists. Here, we use the Community Earth System Model version 1 Large Ensemble to demonstrate that the connection remains robust under global warming. We highlight that the TNA subsurface response and its changes are primarily confined to the western boundary, regulated by variations in the AMOC‐MV‐related North Brazil Current. In the TNA western boundary, a subsurface temperature dome, which dominates the subsurface thermal response by strengthening meridional heat transport, shifts southward due to changes in mean‐state AMOC and local winds. This southward shift extends the subsurface temperature response equatorward, amplifying the mean TNA response. The sustained linkage supports using TNA subsurface temperature as an indicator for future AMOC‐MV monitoring.