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"PASS RATE"
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Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-through and International Monetary Policy Cooperation
There is no consensus on the existence of welfare gains from international monetary policy cooperation. This study adds to the debate by providing a new open macroeconomics model with incomplete exchange rate pass-through. We find that, from a global perspective, the welfare gains from international monetary policy cooperation arise with incomplete exchange rate pass-through. Furthermore, the country’s incentive for cooperation increases with its degree of exchange rate pass-through. Cooperation benefits small countries with high pass-through; however, it is disadvantageous to large countries with low pass-through. In addition, when there is in the absence of cooperation, fixed exchange rate regime is preferred for a country suffering from monetary uncertainty, particularly for small economies with high exchange rate pass-through.
Journal Article
Heads I win; tails you lose: asymmetry in exchange rate pass-through into import prices
We analyse exchange rate pass-through into import prices for a large group of 33 emerging and developed economies from 1980, quarter 1, to 2010, quarter 4. Our error correction models permit asymmetric pass-through for currency appreciations and depreciations over three horizons of interest: on impact, in the short run and in the long run. We find that depreciations are typically passed through more strongly than appreciations in the long run, suggesting that exporters may exert a degree of long-run pricing power. This asymmetry is stronger in economies which are more import dependent but is moderated by freedom to trade and a positive output gap. Given that this pass-through asymmetry is welfare reducing for consumers in the destination market, a key macroeconomic implication is that import-dependent economies, in particular, can benefit from trade liberalization.
Journal Article
Interest Rate Pass‑through and Monetary Policy Transmission in SADC and EAC Countries: Implications for Monetary Union
Southern African Development Community (SADC) and East African Community (EAC) countries are exploring the feasibility of establishing a monetary union. This study assesses the economic integration in the two blocs, using the interest rate pass‑through mechanism to determine the convergence of interest rates in the two regions. This study evaluates the potential for forming a monetary union using the panel autoregressive distributive lag model (PARDL) with monthly data from January 2000 to December 2022, including central bank and retail bank interest rates. The dynamic common correlated effects (DCCE) results suggest that the complete interest pass‑through to retail bank rates does not hold for the two blocs. Secondly, there are varying speeds of adjustment for banking rates in response to changes in policy rates. In addition, the incomplete interest‑rate pass‑through for the two blocs indicates the presence of banking market imperfections, weak banking asset quality, and information asymmetries, which are more pronounced in the EAC. Monetary policymakers should implement measures to enhance the efficiency and competitiveness of their financial systems to minimise these imperfections.
Journal Article
Consumer Search, Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through, and Optimal Interest Rate Policy
This paper studies utility-maximizing monetary policy in a two-country economy with consumer search frictions. Search frictions provide a microfoundation for incomplete exchange rate pass-through and international deviations from the law of one price (LOP). I show that optimal interest rate policy targets deviations from the LOP and acts to mitigate the effect of search frictions. In a quantitative setting, with internationally correlated technology and preference shocks, optimal policy generates positive cross-country correlation of nominal interest rates.
Journal Article
Exchange rate pass-through to inflation in Morocco: a structural VAR approach
Both theoretical and empirical literature emphasize the influence of exchange rate shocks on the domestic prices of imported goods. In this context, this study aims to investigate the fundamental connection between exchange rate fluctuations and domestic price levels, a phenomenon referred to as Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT). The primary objective is to analyze the transmission of exchange rate variations across the economy and their impact on domestic prices, thereby offering valuable insights into the mechanisms of pass-through and their relevance in the Moroccan context.
Journal Article
Firms' heterogeneity, demand accumulating, and exchange rate pass-through
In this article, we study how the export behaviors of new and incumbent exporters differentially respond to exchange rate shocks. We establish a dynamic model, in which new exporters strategically charge a lower price than incumbent exporters to grow their customer base and increase future sales. The model predicts that new exporters adjust their prices more aggressively relative to their incumbent counterparts in response to exchange rate fluctuations. Using a transaction-level data set containing all Chinese exporters during the 2000–2009 period, we find supporting evidence for the model's predictions: new exporters adjust their price 1.5 times more than incumbent exporters. This, in turn, results in export quantities being less responsive to exchange rate shocks among new exporters. The result holds for a series of robustness checks. The findings imply that there are different degrees of exchange rate pass-through among new and incumbent exporters.
Journal Article
Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: Vector Autoregression Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through
Macro-economic consequences of large currency depreciations among the crisis-hit Asian economies varied from one country to another. Inflation did not soar after the Asian currency crisis of 1997-98 in most crisis-hit countries except Indonesia where high inflation followed a very large nominal depreciation of the rupiah. The high inflation meant a loss of price competitive advantage, a key for economic recovery from a crisis. This paper examines the pass-through effects of exchange rate changes on the domestic prices in the East Asian economies using a vector autoregression analysis. The main results are as follows: (i) the degree of exchange rate pass-through to import prices was quite high in the crisis-hit economies; (ii) the pass-through to Consumer Price Index (CPI) was generally low, with a notable exception of Indonesia; and (iii) in Indonesia, both the impulse response of monetary policy variables to exchange rate shocks and that of CPI to monetary policy shocks were positive, large, and statistically significant. Thus, Indonesia's accommodative monetary policy, coupled with the high degree of CPI responsiveness to exchange rate changes was an important factor in the inflation-depreciation spiral in the wake of the currency crisis.
Journal Article
Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Domestic Competition, and Inflation: Evidence from the 2005-08 Revaluation of the Renminbi
Import competition from China is pervasive in the sense that for many good categories, the competitive environment that U. S. firms face in these markets is strongly driven by the prices of Chinese imports, and so is their pricing decision. This paper quantifies the effect of the government-controlled appreciation of the Chinese renminbi vis-à-vis the USD from 2005 to 2008 on the prices charged by U.S. domestic producers. In a panel spanning the period from 1994 to 2010 and including up to 519 manufacturing sectors, import price changes of Chinese goods pass into U.S. producer prices at an average rate of 0.7, while import price changes that can be traced back to exchange rate movements of other trade partners only have mild effects on U.S. prices. Further analysis points to the importance of trade integration, variable markups, and demand complementarities on the one side, and to the importance of imported intermediate goods on the other side as drivers of these patterns. Simulations incorporating these microeconomic findings reveal that a substantial revaluation of the renminbi would result in a pronounced increase in aggregate U.S. producer price inflation.
Journal Article
Testing the effects of real exchange rate pass-through to unemployment in Brazil
This paper attempts to test the pass-through of the real exchange rate (RERT) to unemployment in Brazil over the period 1981M1-2015M11 using linear and nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models. The result of the linearity test suggests that the relationship between RERT and unemployment is linear in the short-run and nonlinear in the long-run. Therefore, using the symmetric ARDL model for the short-run analysis, we find that an increase in the RERT decreases the unemployment rate. The result of the nonlinear ARDL for the long-run analysis shows that the unemployment rate reacts to the RERT appreciations and depreciations differently with depreciations having a strong effect. However, the pass-through of the RERT to unemployment is incomplete both in the short- and long-run. These findings have important policy implications for the designing of appropriate monetary policy in response to a rise in unemployment resulting from a change in the real exchange rate.
Journal Article