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The recent Californian hot drought (2012–2016) precipitated unprecedented ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa ) mortality, largely attributable to the western pine beetle ( Dendroctonus brevicomis ; WPB). Broad-scale climate conditions can directly shape tree mortality patterns, but mortality rates respond non-linearly to climate when local-scale forest characteristics influence the behavior of tree-killing bark beetles (e.g., WPB). To test for these cross-scale interactions, we conduct aerial drone surveys at 32 sites along a gradient of climatic water deficit (CWD) spanning 350 km of latitude and 1000 m of elevation in WPB-impacted Sierra Nevada forests. We map, measure, and classify over 450,000 trees within 9 km 2 , validating measurements with coincident field plots. We find greater size, proportion, and density of ponderosa pine (the WPB host) increase host mortality rates, as does greater CWD. Critically, we find a CWD/host size interaction such that larger trees amplify host mortality rates in hot/dry sites. Management strategies for climate change adaptation should consider how bark beetle disturbances can depend on cross-scale interactions, which challenge our ability to predict and understand patterns of tree mortality. The 2012–2016 drought and western pine beetle outbreaks caused unprecedented mortality of ponderosa pine in the Sierra Nevada, California. Here, the authors analyse drone-based data from almost half a million trees and find an interaction between host size and climatic water deficit, with higher mortality for large trees in dry, warm conditions but not in cooler or wetter conditions.

Large and severe wildfires have raised concerns about the future of forested landscapes in the southwestern United States, especially under repeated burning. In 2011, under extreme weather and drought conditions, the Las Conchas fire burned over several previous burns as well as forests not recently exposed to fire. Our purpose was to examine the influences of prior wildfires on plant community composition and structure, subsequent burn severity, and vegetation response. To assess these relationships, we used satellite‐derived measures of burn severity and a nonmetric multidimensional scaling of pre‐ and post‐ Las Conchas field samples. Earlier burns were associated with shifts from forested sites to open savannas and meadows, oak scrub, and ruderal communities. These non‐forested vegetation types exhibited both resistance to subsequent fire, measured by reduced burn severity, and resilience to reburning, measured by vegetation recovery relative to forests not exposed to recent prior fire. Previous shifts toward non‐forested states were strongly reinforced by reburning. Ongoing losses of forests and their ecological values confirm the need for restoration interventions. However, given future wildfire and climate projections, there may also be opportunities presented by transformations toward fire‐resistant and resilient vegetation types within portions of the landscape.

• We modeled hydraulic stress in ponderosa pine seedlings at multiple scales to examine its influence on mortality and forest extent at the lower treeline in the northern Rockies. • We combined a mechanistic ecohydrologic model with a vegetation dynamic stress index incorporating intensity, duration and frequency of hydraulic stress events, to examine mortality from loss of hydraulic conductivity. We calibrated our model using a glasshouse dry-down experiment and tested it using in situ monitoring data on seedling mortality from reforestation efforts. We then simulated hydraulic stress and mortality in seedlings within the Bitterroot River watershed of Montana. • We show that cumulative hydraulic stress, its legacy and its consequences for mortality are predictable and can be modeled at local to landscape scales. We demonstrate that topographic controls on the distribution and availability of water and energy drive spatial patterns of hydraulic stress. Low-elevation, south-facing, nonconvergent locations with limited upslope water subsidies experienced the highest rates of modeled mortality. • Simulated mortality in seedlings from 2001 to 2015 correlated with the current distribution of forest cover near the lower treeline, suggesting that hydraulic stress limits recruitment and ultimately constrains the low-elevation extent of conifer forests within the region.

Induced defense is a common plant strategy in response to herbivory. Although abiotic damage, such as physical wounding, pruning, and heating, can induce plant defense, the effect of such damage by large-scale abiotic disturbances on induced defenses has not been explored and could have important consequences for plant survival facing future biotic disturbances. Historically, low-severity wildfire was a widespread, frequent abiotic disturbance in many temperate coniferous forests. Native Dendroctonus and Ips bark beetles are also a common biotic disturbance agent in these forest types and can influence tree mortality patterns after wildfire. Therefore, species living in these disturbance-prone environments with strategies to survive both frequent fire and bark beetle attack should be favored. One such example is Pinus ponderosa forests of western North America. These forests are susceptible to bark beetle attack and frequent, low-severity fire was common prior to European settlement. However, since the late 1800s, frequent, low-severity fires have greatly decreased in these forests. We hypothesized that non-lethal, low-severity, wildfire induces resin duct defense in P. ponderosa and that lack of low-severity fire relaxes resin duct defense in forests dependent on frequent, low-severity fire. We first compared axial resin duct traits between trees that either survived or died from bark beetle attacks. Next, we studied axial ducts using tree cores with crossdated chronologies in several natural P. ponderosa stands before and after an individual wildfire and, also, before and after an abrupt change in fire frequency in the 20th century. We show that trees killed by bark beetles invested less in resin ducts relative to trees that survived attack, suggesting that resin duct-related traits provide resistance against bark beetles. We then show low-severity fire induces resin duct production, and finally, that resin duct production declines when fire ceases. Our results demonstrate that low-severity fire can trigger a long-lasting induced defense that may increase tree survival from subsequent herbivory.

Interactions between water stress and induced defenses and their role in tree mortality due to bark beetles are poorly understood. We performed a factorial experiment on 48 mature ponderosa pines (Pinus ponderosa) in northern Arizona over three years that manipulated a) tree water stress by cutting roots and removing snow; b) bark beetle attacks by using pheromone lures; and c) phloem exposure to biota vectored by bark beetles by inoculating with dead beetles. Tree responses included resin flow from stem wounds, phloem composition of mono- and sesqui-terpenes, xylem water potential, leaf gas exchange, and survival. Phloem contained 21 mono- and sesqui-terpenes, which were dominated by (+)-α-pinene, (−)-limonene, and δ-3-carene. Bark beetle attacks (mostly Dendroctonus brevicomis) and biota carried by beetles induced a general increase in concentration of phloem mono- and sesqui-terpenes, whereas water stress did not. Bark beetle attacks induced an increase in resin flow for unstressed trees but not water-stressed trees. Mortality was highest for beetle-attacked water-stressed trees. Death of beetle-attacked trees was preceded by low resin flow, symptoms of water stress (low xylem water potential, leaf gas exchange), and an ephemeral increase in concentrations of mono- and sesqui-terpenes compared to surviving trees. These results show a) that ponderosa pine can undergo induction of both resin flow and phloem terpenes in response to bark beetle attack, and that the former is more constrained by water stress; b) experimental evidence that water stress predisposes ponderosa pines to mortality from bark beetles.

Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently available, geographically widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results demonstrate the utility in modeling intraspecific response to changing climate and they inform management and conservation strategies, by identifying haplotypes and geographic areas that may be most at risk, or most secure, under projected climate change.

The current mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae ) outbreak in the southern Rocky Mountains has impacted ∼ 750 000 ha of forest. Weather and habitat heterogeneity influence forest insect population dynamics at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Comparison of forest insect population dynamics in two principal host species may elucidate the relative contribution of weather and landscape factors in initiating and driving extensive outbreaks. To investigate potential drivers of the current MPB outbreak, we compared broadscale spatiotemporal patterns of MPB activity in lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta ) and ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa ) from 1996 to 2010 in Colorado and southern Wyoming with regional weather fluctuations, and then tracked the annual meso-scale progression of the epidemic in lodgepole pine with respect to weather, topographic, previous MPB activity, and forest stand attributes. MPB activity in lodgepole pine compared to ponderosa pine showed higher magnitude and extent of spatial synchrony. Warm temperatures and low annual precipitation favorable to beetle populations showed high regional synchrony across areas of both pine species, suggesting that habitat interacts with weather in synchronizing MPB populations. Cluster analysis of time series patterns identified multiple, disjunct locations of incipient MPB activity (epicenters) in lodgepole pine, which overlapped an earlier 1980s MPB outbreak, and suggests a regional trigger (drought) across this homogenous forest type. Negative departures from mean annual precipitation played a key role in subsequent spread of MPB outbreak. Development of the outbreak was also associated with lower elevations, greater dominance by lodgepole pine, stands of larger tree size, and stands with higher percentage canopy cover. After epidemic levels of MPB activity were attained, MPB activity was less strongly associated with stand and weather variables. These results emphasize the importance of considering differences in patterns of MPB dynamics for different host pine species even under similar regional-scale weather variation and the nonstationarity of outbreak dynamics over time.

Interannual climate variations have been important drivers of wildfire occurrence in ponderosa pine forests across western North America for at least 400 years, but at finer scales of mountain ranges and landscapes human land uses sometimes over-rode climate influences. We reconstruct and analyse effects of high human population densities in forests of the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico from ca 1300 CE to Present. Prior to the 1680 Pueblo Revolt, human land uses reduced the occurrence of widespread fires while simultaneously adding more ignitions resulting in many small-extent fires. During the 18th and 19th centuries, wet/dry oscillations and their effects on fuels dynamics controlled widespread fire occurrence. In the late 19th century, intensive livestock grazing disrupted fuels continuity and fire spread and then active fire suppression maintained the absence of widespread surface fires during most of the 20th century. The abundance and continuity of fuels is the most important controlling variable in fire regimes of these semi-arid forests. Reduction of widespread fires owing to reduction of fuel continuity emerges as a hallmark of extensive human impacts on past forests and fire regimes. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’.

As climates change, thermal limits may no longer constrain some native herbivores within their historical ranges. The mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, is a tree-killing bark beetle native to western North America that is currently expanding its range. Continued eastward expansion through the newly invaded and novel jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) trees of the Canadian boreal forest could result in exposure of several species of novel potential host pines common in northeastern North America to this oligophagous herbivore. Due to the tightly co-evolved relationship between mountain pine beetle and western pine hosts, in which the insect utilizes the defensive chemistry of the host to stimulate mass attacks, we hypothesized that lack of co-evolutionary association would affect the host attraction and acceptance behaviors of this insect among novel hosts, particularly those with little known historical association with an aggressive stem-infesting insect. We studied how beetle behavior differed among the various stages of colonization on newly cut logs of four novel potential pine host species; jack, red (P. resinosa Ait.), eastern white (P. strobus L.) and Scots (P. sylvestris L.) pines, as well as two historical hosts, ponderosa (P. ponderosa Dougl. ex. Laws. var. scopulorum Engelm.) and lodgepole (P. contorta Dougl. var. latifolia Engelm.) pines. Overall, we found that beetle colonization behaviors at each stage in the colonization process differ between pine hosts, likely due to differing chemical and physical bark traits. Pines without co-evolved constitutive defenses against mountain pine beetle exhibited reduced amounts of defensive monoterpenoid chemicals; however, such patterns also reduced beetle attraction and colonization. Neither chemical nor physical defenses fully defended trees against the various stages of host procurement that can result in tree colonization and death.

Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) is a major and widely distributed component of conifer biomes in western North America and provides substantial ecological and economic benefits. This tree is exposed to several tree-killing bark beetle-microbial complexes, including the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) and the phytopathogenic fungus Grosmannia clavigera that it vectors, which are among the most important. Induced responses play a crucial role in conifer defenses, yet these have not been reported in ponderosa pine. We compared concentrations of terpenes and a phenylpropanoid, two phytochemical classes with strong effects against bark beetles and their symbionts, in constitutive phloem tissue and in tissue following mechanical wounding or simulated D. ponderosae attack (mechanical wounding plus inoculation with G. clavigera). We also tested whether potential induced responses were localized or systemic. Ponderosa pines showed pronounced induced defenses to inoculation, increasing their total phloem concentrations of monoterpenes 22.3-fold, sesquiterpenes 56.7-fold, and diterpenes 34.8-fold within 17 days. In contrast, responses to mechanical wounding alone were only 5.2, 11.3, and 7.7-fold, respectively. Likewise, the phenylpropanoid estragole (4-allyanisole) rose to 19.1-fold constitutive levels after simulated attack but only 4.4-fold after mechanical wounding. Overall, we found no evidence of systemic induction after 17 days, which spans most of this herbivore’s narrow peak attack period, as significant quantitative and compositional changes within and between terpenoid groups were localized to the wound site. Implications to the less frequent exploitation of ponderosa than lodgepole pine by D. ponderosae, and potential advantages of rapid localized over long-term systemic responses in this system, are discussed.