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We find that if all countries adopt the necessary uniform global carbon tax and then return the revenues to their citizens on an equal per capita basis, it will be possible to meet a 2 °C target while also increasing wellbeing, reducing inequality and alleviating poverty. These results indicate that it is possible for a society to implement strong climate action without compromising goals for equity and development.Messages for policyThe revenues from a carbon tax capable of achieving a 2 °C target will be large enough to fund substantial policies that can promote equity and protect vulnerable populations.An equal per capita redistribution of carbon tax revenues within countries — a relatively straightforward policy to implement — can increase wellbeing, reduce inequality and alleviate poverty.These benefits occur in countries at all levels of development, primarily accrue to individuals at the bottom of the income distribution, and are even greater with global equal per capita redistribution.Large benefits will occur even if some revenues are lost to administrative costs or are saved to fund other programs, and they can make the poorest citizens net beneficiaries this decade.Given an equal per capita refund, the optimal timing of global greenhouse gas mitigation is characterized by rapid initial reductions, followed by a slower climb towards net zero emissions.

We find limited evidence that individual or household rebates (also called dividends) have increased public support for carbon taxes in Canada and Switzerland. In the presence of partisan and interest group conflict over climate policy, policymakers should not assume that voter support for carbon pricing will automatically increase with the inclusion of rebates.Messages for policyRebates do not offer a panacea to public opposition to carbon taxation. Taxpayers often remain unaware of the rebate’s existence or underestimate the rebate’s value.Public support for carbon pricing remains structured by partisanship and ideology, even when individuals or households receive material benefits.In the presence of partisan and interest group conflict over carbon taxes, when the costs of carbon taxation are salient, policymakers should not assume that voters’ support for carbon pricing will automatically increase with rebate inclusion.Efforts to increase the political efficacy of dividends must focus on ensuring that citizens understand this policy instrument and must test whether increasing dividend visibility can increase support.

The worldwide trend of decreasing corporate tax in recent years has contributed to an increase in global carbon emissions, but implementing a global minimum tax rate of 15% could partially mitigate this impact. Policymakers should coordinate corporate tax policies with climate regulations.Recommendations for policyThe environmental impact assessment is essential for formulating fiscal or monetary policies. Specifically, coordinating economic and environmental policies simultaneously is recommended.Implementing higher and industry-specific minimum corporate tax rates is recommended to alleviate the challenges posed by climate change.The increased revenues resulting from the minimum tax reforms could be considered for use in supporting green investments to further alleviate climate pressure.When attracting international investments, policymakers should balance economic objectives with environmental impacts.

Currently, chemical monitoring based on priority substances fails to consider the majority of known environmental micropollutants not to mention the unexpected and unknown chemicals that may contribute to the toxic risk of complex mixtures present in the environment. Complementing component- and effect-based monitoring with wide-scope target, suspect, and non-target screening (NTS) based on high-resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS) data is recommended to support environmental impact and risk assessment. This will allow for detection of newly emerging compounds and transformation products, retrospective monitoring efforts, and the identification of possible drivers of toxicity by correlation with effects or modelling of expected effects for future and abatement scenarios. HRMS is becoming increasingly available in many laboratories. Thus, the time is right to establish and harmonize screening methods, train staff, and record HRMS data for samples from regular monitoring events and surveys. This will strongly enhance the value of chemical monitoring data for evaluating complex chemical pollution problems, at limited additional costs. Collaboration and data exchange on a European-to-global scale is essential to maximize the benefit of chemical screening. Freely accessible data platforms, inter-laboratory trials, and the involvement of international partners and networks are recommended.

Eliminating government infrastructure spending, public disaster insurance and post-disaster aid in high-risk coastal areas reduces development there and leads to lower flood damages and higher property values on nearby lands. The strategic withdrawal of development incentives could be used more broadly to reduce climate risks.Recommendations for policyExpanding the CBRS would help curb excessive development and promote resilience in coastal communities at high risk of climate change in the USA.CBRS is more effective at curbing development when the tracts are large and relatively less developed at the time of designation.In the US setting, coordination across different levels of government is critical for the success of any federal policy that removes development incentives. State and local spending also affects land use and development decisions.The USA should explore removal of development incentives in other high-risk areas, such as inland flood plains and high-wildfire-risk zones. The policy could also be replicated in other countries.Natural land conservation resulting from the removal of development incentives generated amenity value and natural hazard protection in surrounding communities.

A large gap exists between the concerns over the risks of climate change and the support needed for effective climate actions. We show that participating in a market where individuals make predictions on future climate outcomes and earn money can change climate attitudes, behaviour and knowledge.Recommendations for policyParticipation in a climate prediction market, where individuals make bets on outcomes and earn money when they are correct, results in more climate concern, support and knowledge.Climate prediction markets can be used by policymakers as a highly accurate polling mechanism.The market, at scale, can infuse private money into climate efforts. It can act as an exchange where those who hold inaccurate beliefs sponsor policies with the money they lose.The market allows policymakers to leverage the wisdom of the crowd to estimate future outcomes based on current bet values. Thus, it ameliorates the brain’s challenge in valuing distant consequences.The market acts as an agreed-upon referee and, through its anonymity, protects social standing in groups where alignment with science on politicized issues results in exclusion.

Achieving net zero means balancing remaining emissions with carbon removal, and understanding the nature and scope of residual emissions is key to planning decarbonized energy and industrial systems. However, our analysis of long-term climate strategies shows that many governments lack clear projections for residual emissions at net zero.Recommendations for policyCurrent projections of residual emissions by 2050 by the countries that have quantified them indicate a need for high levels of removals, which risks compromising other sustainability goals.Clear projections for the amount of residual emissions, sectoral and spatial distribution, and the types of greenhouse gas will help planning and investment for mid-century infrastructure.Policymakers and researchers should develop standards for what can be reasonably deemed residual emissions, in order to avoid inflated expectations of emissions that cannot be compensated by removals.Policymakers can support decarbonization planning by being explicit about whether residual emissions — and net zero as a goal — are a temporary stopgap towards decarbonization, or a state to maintain.Both international and national policy action is needed to solve the problem of ensuring that removals are compensating for emissions from sectors and activities that are truly hard-to-abate.

Inadequate information in national adaptation policies limits the ability to track national adaptation progress in Africa. Enhancing coverage, consistency and robustness of these policies offers a clear path to establish effective, nationally led adaptation-tracking infrastructure.Recommendations for policyNDCs and NAPs can inform adaptation assessments if they cover all elements of the adaptation cycle, are internally consistent and provide robust indicators to measure progress.The UAE–Belém work programme on indicators should champion robust indicators that reflect climate risks, adaptation needs and priorities outlined in national policies.NAP technical guidance revisions by the Least Developed Countries Expert Group can enhance NDCs–NAPs linkage, driving consistent adaptation planning, implementation and tracking.The research community can aid global and national efforts by establishing a database of indicators and methods that governments can use to build or enhance tracking systems.Enhanced researchers–practitioners–governments collaborations are needed to accelerate testing and refinement of indicators and to produce evidence on adaptation progress.

Funding large-scale negative emissions through a carbon market designed for traditional emission reduction strategies risks exacerbating long-term economic inequality. We suggest exploring alternative financing mechanisms that address this concern and that still ensure decarbonization at reasonable costs.Recommendations for policyIn a net-zero emissions world, NETs could become a trillion-dollar business globally.If financed through an unregulated carbon market, the owners of these companies would enjoy windfall profits, potentially leading to a large increase in economic inequality.Market regulation, such as profit caps, could reduce the inequality increase, but at the risk of stimulating too much or too little carbon removal — policymakers should be aware of this trade-off.Concentrating removal efforts in the Global North or transferring resources to the Global South could, to some extent, offset the increase in inequality at the global level.These dynamics mostly apply to a net-zero and post-net-zero world. The current priority of policymakers should remain to provide adequate resources to scale up NETs towards technology maturity.

Climate policy adoption in one country increases the probability of adoption in neighbouring countries. Governments can thus support global climate action by adopting a leadership role in climate policy and do not need to worry about freeriding behaviour.Recommendations for policyIntroducing carbon pricing encourages other countries to do the same, contributing to greenhouse gas emissions reductions abroad, which means additional global benefits from climate leadership.Countries with the largest global benefits from policy diffusion are centrally located among countries that have not yet introduced carbon pricing.Freeriding behaviour does not seem to be the primary response to climate leadership, reducing possible carbon leakage concerns.International organizations seem to be one channel through which countries influence each other’s climate policies. Strengthening international cooperation thus supports global climate policy.Pointing out the global benefits of climate leadership can help to realize these benefits. International leadership is particularly relevant for countries with relatively small domestic greenhouse gas emissions.