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"POPULATION DISTRIBUTION"
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Timebomb : when ageing explodes
Ageing is a timebomb. We celebrate our greater longevity, yet few of us consider its consequences. This book is an important warning that unless Europeans defuse its explosive force, within two decades our societies will be devastated by it. The hard fact is that because our political economies have been built around shorter lifespans, they risk being blown apart by ageing. The pressures exerted by the over-60s, who are increasing from today's quarter of the population to a third, will upend our politics and impoverish our young.
BOOK
Global and country-level estimates of human population at high altitude
Estimates of the global population of humans living at high altitude vary widely, and such data at the country level are unavailable. Herein, we use a geographic information system (GIS)-based approach to quantify human population at 500-m elevation intervals for each country. Based on georeferenced data for population (LandScan Global 2019) and elevation (Global Multiresolution Terrain Elevation Data), 500.3 million humans live at ≥1,500 m, 81.6 million at ≥2,500 m, and 14.4 million at ≥3,500 m. Ethiopia has the largest absolute population at ≥1,500 m and ≥2,500 m, while China has the greatest at ≥3,500 m. Lesotho has the greatest percentage of its population above 1,500 m, while Bolivia has the greatest at ≥2,500 m and ≥3,500 m. High altitude presents a myriad of environmental stresses that provoke physiological responses and adaptation, and consequently impact disease prevalence and severity. While the majority of high-altitude physiology research is based upon lowlanders from western, educated, industrialized, rich, and democratic countries ascending to high altitude, the global population distribution of high-altitude residents encourages an increased emphasis on understanding high-altitude physiology, adaptation, epidemiology, and public health in the ∼500 million permanent high-altitude residents.
Journal Article
The Area and Population of Cities: New Insights from a Different Perspective on Cities
The distribution of city populations has attracted much attention, in part because it constrains models of local growth. However, there is no consensus on the distribution below the very upper tail, because available data need to rely on “legal” rather than “economic” definitions for medium and small cities. To remedy this difficulty, we construct cities “from the bottom up” by clustering populated areas obtained from high-resolution data. We find that Zipf 's law for population holds for cities as small as 5,000 inhabitants in Great Britain and 12,000 inhabitants in the US. We also find a Zipf 's law for areas. JEL: R11, R12, R23
Journal Article
Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data
During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography.
Journal Article
High-Resolution Gridded Population Datasets: Exploring the Capabilities of the World Settlement Footprint 2019 Imperviousness Layer for the African Continent
The field of human population mapping is constantly evolving, leveraging the increasing availability of high-resolution satellite imagery and the advancements in the field of machine learning. In recent years, the emergence of global built-area datasets that accurately describe the extent, location, and characteristics of human settlements has facilitated the production of new population grids, with improved quality, accuracy, and spatial resolution. In this research, we explore the capabilities of the novel World Settlement Footprint 2019 Imperviousness layer (WSF2019-Imp), as a single proxy in the production of a new high-resolution population distribution dataset for all of Africa—the WSF2019-Population dataset (WSF2019-Pop). Results of a comprehensive qualitative and quantitative assessment indicate that the WSF2019-Imp layer has the potential to overcome the complexities and limitations of top-down binary and multi-layer approaches of large-scale population mapping, by delivering a weighting framework which is spatially consistent and free of applicability restrictions. The increased thematic detail and spatial resolution (~10 m at the Equator) of the WSF2019-Imp layer improve the spatial distribution of populations at local scales, where fully built-up settlement pixels are clearly differentiated from settlement pixels that share a proportion of their area with green spaces, such as parks or gardens. Overall, eighty percent of the African countries reported estimation accuracies with percentage mean absolute errors between ~15% and ~32%, and 50% of the validation units in more than half of the countries reported relative errors below 20%. Here, the remaining lack of information on the vertical dimension and the functional characterisation of the built-up environment are still remaining limitations affecting the quality and accuracy of the final population datasets.
Journal Article
Isolated Capital Cities, Accountability, and Corruption: Evidence from US States
We show that isolated capital cities are robustly associated with greater levels of corruption across US states, in line with the view that this isolation reduces accountability. We then provide direct evidence that the spatial distribution of population relative to the capital affects different accountability mechanisms: newspapers cover state politics more when readers are closer to the capital, voters who live far from the capital are less knowledgeable and interested in state politics, and they turn out less in state elections. We also find that isolated capitals are associated with more money in state-level campaigns, and worse public good provision.
Journal Article
A pixel level evaluation of five multitemporal global gridded population datasets: a case study in Sweden, 1990–2015
Human activity is a major driver of change and has contributed to many of the challenges we face today. Detailed information about human population distribution is fundamental and use of freely available, high-resolution, gridded datasets on global population as a source of such information is increasing. However, there is little research to guide users in dataset choice. This study evaluates five of the most commonly used global gridded population datasets against a high-resolution Swedish population dataset on a pixel level. We show that datasets which employ more complex modeling techniques exhibit lower errors overall but no one dataset performs best under all situations. Furthermore, differences exist in how unpopulated areas are identified and changes in algorithms over time affect accuracy. Our results provide guidance in navigating the differences between the most commonly used gridded population datasets and will help researchers and policy makers identify the most suitable datasets under varying conditions.
Journal Article