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Current data and trends in morbidity and mortality for the sub-Saharan Region as presented in this new edition reflect the heavy toll that HIV/AIDS has had on health indicators, leading to either a stalling or reversal of the gains made, not just for communicable disorders, but for cancers, as well as mental and neurological disorders.

The era of big data provides a platform for high-precision RUL prediction, but the existing RUL prediction methods, which effectively extract key degradation information, remain a challenge. Existing methods ignore the influence of sensor and degradation moment variability, and instead assign weights to them equally, which affects the final prediction accuracy. In addition, convolutional networks lose key information due to downsampling operations and also suffer from the drawback of insufficient feature extraction capability. To address these issues, the two-layer attention mechanism and the Inception module are embedded in the capsule structure (mai-capsule model) for lifetime prediction. The first layer of the channel attention mechanism (CAM) evaluates the influence of various sensor information on the forecast; the second layer adds a time-step attention (TSAM) mechanism to the LSTM network to weigh the contribution of different moments of the engine's whole life cycle to the prediction, while weakening the influence of environmental noise on the prediction. The Inception module is introduced to perform multi-scale feature extraction on the weighted data to capture the degradation information to the maximum extent. Lastly, we are inspired to employ the capsule network to capture important position information of high and low-dimensional features, given its capacity to facilitate a more effective rendition of the overall features of the time-series data. The efficacy of the suggested model is assessed against other approaches and verified using the publicly accessible C-MPASS dataset. The end findings demonstrate the excellent prediction precision of the suggested approach.

The individual account-based but unfunded approach to mandated public pension systems is a reform benchmark for all pension schemes, promising fair and financially sustainable benefits. Nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) pension schemes originated in Italy and Sweden in the 1990s, were then adopted by Latvia, Norway, and Poland, envisaged but not implemented in various other countries, such as Egypt and Russia, and remain under discussion in many nations around the world, such as China and France. In its complete form, the approach also comprises budget-financed basic income provisions and mandated or voluntary funded provisions. Volume 1 of this book offers an assessment of countries that were early adopters before addressing key aspects of policy implementation and design review, including how best to combine basic income provisions with an NDC scheme, how to deal with heterogeneity in longevity, and how to adjust NDC scheme design and labor market policies to deliver on reform expectations. Volume 2 addresses a second set of issues, including the gender pension gap and what family policies can do about it within the NDC framework, labor market issues and administrative challenges of NDC schemes and how countries are coping, the role of communication in these pension schemes, the complexity of cross-border pension taxation, and much more. Progress and Challenges of Nonfinancial Defined Contribution Pension Schemes is the third in a series of books analyzing the progress, challenges, and adjustment options of this reform revolution for mandated public pension systems. ‘Pension reform is a major issue in many countries. The development of the nonfinancial defined contribution pension plan in the 90’s was a major advance in pension design. By reporting actual country experiences and exploring properties of plan designs, this latest collection of essays is a valuable contribution, well worth reading.’ Peter Diamond Professor at Massachusetts Institute of Technology; 2010 winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences ‘A highly stimulating publication for policy makers and researchers alike. It pushes the analytical frontier for policy challenges that all public pension schemes are confronted with but that the nonfinancial defined contribution approach promises to handle best.’ Noriyuki Takayama President, Research Institute for Policies on Pension and Aging, Tokyo, and professor emeritus, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo ‘In a changing world where pensions are more than ever linked to labor markets, communication tools, and flexibility considerations, this anthology provides a unique up-to-date analysis of nonfinancial defined contribution pension schemes. By mixing international experiences and theoretical studies, it demonstrates the high adaptability of such pension schemes to changing social challenges.’ Pierre Devolder Professor of Finance and Actuarial Sciences, Catholic University of Louvain, Belgium

The individual account-based but unfunded approach to mandated public pension systems is a reform benchmark for all pension schemes, promising fair and financially sustainable benefits. Nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) pension schemes originated in Italy and Sweden in the 1990s, were then adopted by Latvia, Norway, and Poland, envisaged but not implemented in various other countries, such as Egypt and Russia, and remain under discussion in many nations around the world, such as China and France. In its complete form, the approach also comprises budget-financed basic income provisions and mandated or voluntary funded provisions. Volume 1 of this book offers an assessment of countries that were early adopters before addressing key aspects of policy implementation and design review, including how best to combine basic income provisions with an NDC scheme, how to deal with heterogeneity in longevity, and how to adjust NDC scheme design and labor market policies to deliver on reform expectations. Volume 2 addresses a second set of issues, including the gender pension gap and what family policies can do about it within the NDC framework, labor market issues and administrative challenges of NDC schemes and how countries are coping, the role of communication in these pension schemes, the complexity of cross-border pension taxation, and much more. Progress and Challenges of Nonfinancial Defined Contribution Pension Schemes is the third in a series of books analyzing the progress, challenges, and adjustment options of this reform revolution for mandated public pension systems. ‘Pension reform is a major issue in many countries. The development of the nonfinancial defined contribution pension plan in the 90’s was a major advance in pension design. By reporting actual country experiences and exploring properties of plan designs, this latest collection of essays is a valuable contribution, well worth reading.’ Peter Diamond Professor at Massachusetts Institute of Technology; 2010 winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences ‘A highly stimulating publication for policy makers and researchers alike. It pushes the analytical frontier for policy challenges that all public pension schemes are confronted with but that the nonfinancial defined contribution approach promises to handle best.’ Noriyuki Takayama President, Research Institute for Policies on Pension and Aging, Tokyo, and professor emeritus, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo ‘In a changing world where pensions are more than ever linked to labor markets, communication tools, and flexibility considerations, this anthology provides a unique up-to-date analysis of nonfinancial defined contribution pension schemes. By mixing international experiences and theoretical studies, it demonstrates the high adaptability of such pension schemes to changing social challenges.’ Pierre Devolder Professor of Finance and Actuarial Sciences, Catholic University of Louvain, Belgium

We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for producing probabilistic forecasts of male period life expectancy at birth for all the countries of the world to 2100. Such forecasts would be an input to the production of probabilistic population projections for all countries, which is currently being considered by the United Nations. To evaluate the method, we conducted an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment, fitting the model to the data from 1950-1995 and using the estimated model to forecast for the subsequent 10 years. The 10-year predictions had a mean absolute error of about 1 year, about 40 % less than the current UN methodology. The probabilistic forecasts were calibrated in the sense that, for example, the 80 % prediction intervals contained the truth about 80 % of the time. We illustrate our method with results from Madagascar (a typical country with steadily improving life expectancy), Latvia (a country that has had a mortality crisis), and Japan (a leading country). We also show aggregated results for South Asia, a region with eight countries. Free, publicly available R software packages called bayesLife and bayesDem are available to implement the method.

Abstract Every four years, the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) conducts a public health foresight study to support evidence-based policymaking in the Netherlands. These studies project future health challenges by estimating risk factors, incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a wide range of diseases over the next 25 years. The foresight approach at RIVM uses advanced modeling techniques, including demographic projections, disease models, age-period-cohort models, and risk factor analyses. Both quantitative and qualitative inputs are used, drawing on historical data, surveys, registries, and expert consultations. The analyses also enable projections of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), calculated by combining Years of Life Lost (YLL) and Years Lived with Disability (YLD). The results highlight future changes in disease burden. Dementia is projected to rise strongly, mainly due to an increase in YLL. Arthrosis will also grow, driven primarily by a rise in YLD. Cardiovascular diseases, although becoming less lethal, will continue to cause a significant burden, with YLD levels remaining high. Producing DALY projections requires key methodological choices. For YLL, remaining life expectancy is based on projected life tables from future all-cause mortality, rather than aspirational life tables. For YLD, it is assumed that the severity distribution of diseases stays constant, even though improvements in detection and treatment could change outcomes. Uncertainty is important and should ideally be addressed through scenario development. Despite limitations, RIVM's foresight studies are essential for proactive public health planning. By identifying future disease burdens and opportunities for action, these projections help policymakers better prepare for emerging challenges, strengthen health resilience, and optimize healthcare systems.

Background Life expectancy (LE) is one of crucial metrics of human evolution. However, the evolutionary trajectories of LE in different regions of China and the regional inequalities expected in 2030 are still unclear yet. Methods This study collected provincial LE data and relevant explanatory variables for the years of 2000, 2010, 2020 in China. The Geotree method was employed to reconstruct the evolution trajectories of LE, while a multilevel model was used to predict LEs at the provincial levels in the country for the year 2030. Results The LE in China exhibited significant geographical pattern, decreasing from the east to the west of the country. LE increases with socio-economic development but is constrained by the natural environment. The physical limitation to LE is significant in western China but are being alleviated with the development of socio-economic conditions. LE will increase in all provinces by 2030, with the overall LE in China reaching 80.05 years (95% confidence interval: 78.93 ~ 81.28), and regional inequalities will diminish. Conclusions LE is increasing with the improvement of socioeconomic condition over time; the constraints imposed by the natural environment on LE are being overridden with the improvement of socio-economic conditions.

Background Population ageing is associated with rising healthcare expenditure. To inform policy and adapt health systems accordingly, a detailed quantitative analysis of the different components of ageing and other factors that influence cost dynamics is needed. Methods We use dynamic microsimulation to project healthcare expenditure in Austria and disentangle the effects of changes in longevity, population age-structure, healthy life years and socio-economic health disparities. By combining price weights for healthcare services with information on healthcare consumption from the Austrian Health Interview Survey, we construct average cost profiles by gender, age, and education. These profiles, aligned with the System of Health Accounts, are integrated into the microDEMS model, along with official population projections, to estimate expenditure scenarios until 2060. We examine the relationship between rising life expectancy and changes in healthy life years and assess the potential impact of closing the gap in costs currently observed between education groups. Total and per-capita cost trajectories are derived and evaluated against two indicators for the size of the labor force to assess economic implications. Results In all scenarios, demographic ageing increases the financial burden on the economically active population, even with morbidity compression. Nearly two-thirds of the projected cost increase stems from declining mortality, while one-third results from age-structure changes. Per-capita costs rise by 26% under a morbidity expansion scenario but could decrease by 5% if lower mortality is accompanied by an extension of healthy life years and a reduction in socio-economic health disparities. In economic terms, costs per working-age person increase by 12% to 48%, depending on the scenario. When adjusting for labor force expansion and the associated economic benefits, the increase ranges between 5% and 39%. Conclusions Rising healthcare expenditure poses a major challenge in an ageing society. However, policies that extend healthy life years and reduce socio-economic disparities offer viable strategies to significantly mitigate the economic impact of ageing.

In developed countries, mortality decline is decelerating at younger ages and accelerating at old ages, a phenomenon we call \"rotation.\" We expect that this rotation will also occur in developing countries as they attain high life expectancies. But the rotation is subtle and has proved difficult to handle in mortality models that include all age groups. Without taking it into account, however, long-term mortality projections will produce questionable results. We simplify the problem by focusing on the relative magnitude of death rates at two ages (0 and 15-19) while making assumptions about changes in rates of decline at other ages. We extend the Lee-Carter method to incorporate this subtle rotation in projection. We suggest that the extended Lee-Carter method could provide plausible projections of the age pattern of mortality for populations, including those that currently have very high life expectancies. Detailed examples are given using data from Japan and the United States.

Background This study aimed to make future projections of the nationwide prevalence of dementia in Japan using the prevalence of dementia from the Toyama Dementia Survey and population projections. Methods We performed linear regression analysis using the prevalence of dementia by sex and age in 1985, 1990, 1996, 2001, and 2014 from the Toyama Dementia Survey to calculate the estimated future prevalence by sex and age. The estimated prevalence was then multiplied by the estimated future population of people aged 65 years and older by sex and age in each of the 47 prefectures from 2020 to 2045 and added together to calculate the total number of people with dementia. The estimated future prevalence of dementia was calculated by dividing the calculated number of people with dementia by the estimated future population of people aged 65 years and older in each of the 47 prefectures. In addition, the estimated future prevalence of dementia in each of the 47 prefectures from 2020 to 2045 was presented on a map of Japan and grayscale-coded in four levels. Results In 2020, the estimated future prevalence of dementia did not exceed 20% in any prefecture, but in 2025, five prefectures, mainly rural prefectures, had projected rates exceeding 20%. In 2030, the prevalence rate is projected to exceed 20% nationwide, and by 2035, the rate will exceed 25% in 42 prefectures. In 2045, all prefectures excluding Tokyo are projected to have a dementia prevalence rate exceeding 25%, and the rate will exceed 30% in 12 of 47 prefectures. Conclusions Over the next 25 years, the prevalence of dementia in people older than 65 years is projected to exceed 25% nationwide, including metropolitan areas.