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"PROTECTIONISM (TRADE)"
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Potential Trump Tariff Conflict in 2025 and Its Implications for International Trade
This study examines the dynamics of Trump's tariff strategy, as well as its long-term impacts on the global economy, trade networks, and inflation trajectories through 2025 and 2030. Using updated statistics and economic models, the analysis shows how protectionist trade policies, which were designed to address trade imbalances, have instead contributed to supply-chain regionalization, a slowdown in global growth, and persistent inflationary pressures. Empirical evidence from 2020 to 2025 shows that the tariff war raised the U.S. trade deficit and delayed the expansion of international commerce. The report offers three forward-looking scenarios - Technological Protectionism, Strategic Recalibration, and Bloc Polarization - in order to assess different policy paths. The results show that while recalibration through selective liberalization could restore modest growth and inflation stability, sustained tariff rises could reduce global GDP growth to 1.7% and trade volume by more than 10% by 2030. Policy proposals emphasize the need to revitalize multilateral trade governance, coordinate monetary and fiscal policies, and promote regional production resilience through sustainable and unique tariff regimes. The research predicts that globalization will eventually shift toward \"managed interdependence\" by fusing strategic autonomy with cooperative frameworks. These findings provide an essential basis for policymakers, economists, and international organizations seeking to develop flexible policies for an increasingly fragmented global trade landscape.
Journal Article
The politics of fair trade : moving beyond free trade and protection
\" The Politics of Fair Trade argues that fair trade is more than just labels on specialty coffee products. Nor is fair trade just protectionism in disguise. Rather, fair trade is opposition to unrestricted trade based on sincere concerns about environmental and labor conditions abroad. Fair traders are not trying to protect jobs or the economy at home, but do not want to see workers exploited and the environment degraded in their trading partners. Academics and policymakers are ill equipped to deal with fair trade concerns because they wrongly assume trade preferences run along a single dimension from free trade to protection. This book introduces a multidimensional theory of trade policy preferences, arguing that people can oppose trade for different and unrelated reasons. The book then demonstrates, using public opinion data in the U.S. and EU and Congressional voting data in the U.S., that fair traders are sincere and not simply protectionists. The book demonstrates why fair trade poses a threat to free trade and argues that free traders should include stronger and enforceable labor and environmental standards in trade agreements in order to win the support of fair traders. Doing so will enable free trade to continue while also helping to improve conditions in developing countries, satisfying the concerns of both free traders and fair traders. \"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Analysis of the Impact of U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty on China’s Grain Trade
U.S. trade protectionism has frequently risen recently, and trade policy fluctuations have become increasingly significant. In this context, examining the impact of U.S. trade policy uncertainty on China’s grain trade is of great significance to China’s response to changes in the international trade situation, guaranteeing national food security and promoting sustainable agricultural development. From the statistical data, the U.S. trade policy uncertainty and China’s grain imports primarily show a reverse trend, and China’s grain exports show a positive trend. To further explore the impact of U.S. trade policy uncertainty on China’s grain trade, this study selects the monthly data from July 2003 to December 2022. It conducts impulse response analysis by constructing a vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility. It is found that the impact of U.S. trade policy uncertainty on China’s grain trade has prominent time-varying characteristics and point-in-time effects, and the impact on different kinds of grain is heterogeneous. In this regard, China needs to clarify the nature of the trade dispute between China and the United States, reasonably utilize the multilateral coordination mechanism of the WTO, coordinate the international and domestic markets, adjust the short board of grain trade, and safeguard the sustainable development of Chinese agriculture.
Journal Article
Trade is not a four-letter word : how six everyday products make the case for trade
\"Trade allows us to sell what we produce at home and purchase what we don't. It lowers prices and gives us greater variety and innovation. Yet understanding our place in the global trade network is rarely so simple, and today's workers are wary of being taken advantage of. Trade has become an easy excuse for struggling economies, a scapegoat for our failures to adapt to a changing world, and--for many Americans on both the right and the left--nothing short of a four-letter word. But as Fred P. Hochberg reminds us, trade is easier to understand than we commonly think. In Trade Is Not a Four-Letter Word, you'll learn how NAFTA became a populist punching bag on both sides of the aisle. You'll learn how Americans can avoid the grim specter of the $10 banana. And you'll finally discover the truth about whether or not, as President Trump once famously tweeted, \"trade wars are good and easy to win.\" (Spoiler alert--they aren't.) Hochberg unravels the mysteries of trade by pulling back the curtain on six everyday products, each with a surprising story to tell: the taco salad, the Honda Odyssey, the banana, the iPhone, the college degree, and the smash hit HBO series Game of Thrones. Behind these six examples are stories that help explain not only how trade has shaped our lives so far but also how we can use trade to build a better future for our own families, for America, and for the world. There is no going back. Trade Is Not a Four-Letter Word is the antidote to today's acronym-laden trade jargon pitched to voters with simple promises that rarely play out so one-dimensionally. It's time to read between the lines. Packed with colorful examples and highly digestible explanations, Trade Is Not a Four-Letter Word entertains as it dispels popular misconceptions and arms readers with a thorough grasp of the basics of trade.\"--Provided by publisher.
Book
Trade Protectionism Shocks and FDI Divestment in Host Countries: The Role of Urban Supply Networks
Based on the data of prefecture-level cities in China from 2012 to 2020, this paper discusses the impact of Sino-US trade frictions on foreign direct investment (FDI) divestment in China. We find that Sino-US trade frictions will significantly reduce the scale of foreign direct investment, and slow down the growth rate. Our conclusion is still robust after the exclusion of endogenous and robust tests. Furthermore, we reveal that the learning, division of labor, and sharing mechanism generated by virtual agglomeration in the urban supply network is an important way for Sino-US trade friction to impact FDI in China. While improving the level of urban division of labor and market sharing, Sino-US trade friction has a negative impact on the exchange and learning between cities in the supply network node. We also observe that virtual agglomeration promotes the community interaction of FDI between node cities, and the geographical spatial distance in the dimension of urban agglomeration still plays an important role in economic activities.
Journal Article
The Impacts of COVID-19 on China’s Economy and Energy in the Context of Trade Protectionism
In the current context of rising trade protectionism, deeply understanding the impacts of COVID-19 on economy and energy has important practical significance for China to cope with external shocks in an uncertain environment and enhance economic resilience. By constructing an integrated economic and energy input-output model including the COVID-19 shock, this paper assesses the impacts of COVID-19 on China’s macro-economy and energy consumption in the context of trade protectionism. The results are shown as follows. First, in the context of protectionism, the outbreak of COVID-19 in China would cause a 2.2–3.09% drop in China’s GDP and a 1.56–2.48% drop in energy consumption, while adverse spillovers from global spread of COVID-19 would reduce its GDP by 2.27–3.28% and energy consumption by 2.48–3.49%. Second, the negative impacts of domestic outbreak on China’s construction, non-metallic mineral products, and services would be on average 1.29% higher than those on other industries, while the impacts of global spread of COVID-19 on export-oriented industries such as textiles and wearing apparel would be on average 1.23% higher than other industries. Third, the effects of two wave of the pandemic on China’s fossil energy consumption would be on average 1.44% and 0.93% higher than non-fossil energy consumption, respectively.
Journal Article
Decoding stock market reactions of BRICS to U.S. policy shifts in 2025
On January 20, 2025, President Trump’s seismic cautions ended birth right citizenship and slapped 100% tariffs on BRICS nations engaging in non-dollar transactions sent shockwaves through global markets. This study analyses immediate financial turmoil and dissecting stock indices across the BRICS economies. Event study is used to analyze the impact of Trump's January 20, 2025, cautions on the BRICS stock markets. Daily data from May 2024 to February 2025 were analyzed through a 10-day event window and a 160-day estimation window, revealing a heightened reaction across BRICS markets, with sector-specific disparities. Brazil and South Africa exhibited immediate sensitivity, India and China remained relatively stable, suggesting stronger shock absorption whereas Russia showed a delayed yet persistent reaction. The short-term stock market responses suggest the initial economic stress due to geopolitical shocks and underscore the risks of all emerging economies to remain sustainable over the long run. The findings underscore asymmetric vulnerabilities within emerging economies, shaped by policy exposure, investor sentiment, and sectoral dependencies, which underscores urgent need for BRICS nations to build sector-specific shock absorbers against disruptions.
Journal Article
Trade protectionism and the manufacturing sector: a review of border closure policy in Nigeria
This study empirically investigates to ascertain the impact of trade protection vis-à-vis border closure policy on manufacturing sector in Nigeria between January 2018 and June 2021 using monthly secondary data. The study employs traditional theory of protectionism as its theoretical framework. The chow breakpoint result revealed that there is a significant change in the parameters of the model in July 2019 which coincides with the time the policy implementation started. It employs dummy variable to investigate the impact of the policy on manufacturing sector output as against use of two regression model. The regression analysis revealed that in the short run, the impact of the border closure on manufacturing sector was positive but later became adverse in the long run. Also, the interaction of the border closure with the inflation rate revealed that the inflation rate became high during the period but the government generated income from tariff increased. This revealed that there are leakages through the land borders that needs to be curbed through legislation. Sequel to these findings, the study makes the following recommendations: government should not consider closing the borders again as it closures constitute a drag to the manufacturing sector growth; rather than closed border, government should formulate policies to enforce trade protection; lastly, should it become exigent for the government to close the border, they should allow moderate inflation rate that the economy can tolerate in order to spur manufacturing output.
Journal Article