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This study investigates the procyclicality of loan loss provision (LLP), with a focus on differentiating the procyclical inclinations of non-discretionary and discretionary components. Using a dataset of 377 IFRS-compliant banks from 75 countries around the world, we analyze how each component of LLP responds to economic cycles during the period from 2013 to 2022. Our findings indicate that non-discretionary LLP exhibits procyclicality, as they respond to observable credit losses that typically rise following economic downturns. Conversely, discretionary LLP, which reflects anticipatory adjustments made by banks in response to economic conditions, does not show procyclicality. These results underscore the role of LLP components in amplifying economic cycles. This research contributes to the broader understanding of procyclicality and financial stability, providing insights for standard setters and policymakers seeking to mitigate the procyclical effects of provisioning practices.

This study explores the association between earning management practices and financial distress in commercial banks. Earning management is measured through discretionary loan loss provisions and non-discretionary loan loss provisions. Modified Altman’s Z-score has been used as a proxy for financial distress. Panel regression with fixed and random effect has been employed for empirical analysis. The study finds a significant positive association between DLLP, NDLLP and financial distress in terms of the Altman Z-score. In the case of NDLLP, liquidity reduces the probability of financial distress. Whereas, a bank’s SIZE, LEVG and AQ enhance the likelihood of financial distress. The robustness tests were applied to find the association between NDLLP and FD using logistic regression to validate baseline estimates results of the random effect model. The findings of this study have implications for the policymakers, regulators and internal stakeholders to devise effective regulatory measures for well-informed investment decisions.

This report is part of a broader effort by the World Bank Group to understand the motives and challenges of small entrepreneurs in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS). The report's key finding is that, compared to entrepreneurs elsewhere, entrepreneurs in FCS have different characteristics, face significantly different challenges, and thus may be subject to different incentives and have different motives. Therefore, it is recommended that both the current analytical approach and the operational strategy of the World Bank be informed by the findings that follow. The report summarizes findings of recent World Bank Enterprise Surveys (ES) conducted across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Asia, and the Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Region as well as Doing Business indicators and additional World Bank Group studies and field observations. The report finds that the majority of entrepreneurs in FCS countries are small, informal, and concentrated in the trade/services sectors. According to the ES, and after controlling for the level of development (that is, GDP per capita): 1) the average FCS firm in SSA and the ECA Region produces less output than non-FCS firms; 2) the average FCS firm in ECA is by 20 percent less likely to innovate (that is, to introduce/upgrade new products and services) than its non-FCS counterpart; and 3) FCS firms start smaller and grow significantly more slowly, or even shrink (in the number of employees) over time, compared to non-FCS firms in the Regions analyzed. The report also highlights the differences in sector and business environment characteristics between FCS and non-FCS business environments.

Prior research has shown that loan loss provisions are primarily used as a tool for earnings management and capital management by listed banks. Effective 2005 all listed companies in the European Union (EU) are required to comply with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Adherence to IFRS, it is claimed, should enhance transparency of reporting practices relative to local General Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). The overall objective of this paper is to examine the impact of the implementation of IFRS on the use of loan loss provisions (LLPs) to manage earnings and capital. We use a sample of 91 EU listed commercial banks covering a period of 10 years (before and after implementation of IFRS). Since early adopters may have different incentives and motivations relative to those who adopt mandatorily, we dichotomize our sample into early and late adopters. Overall, we find that earnings management (using loan loss provisions) for both early and late adopters while significant over the estimation window is significantly reduced after implementation of IFRS. We also find that, for risky banks, earnings management behavior is more pronounced when compared to the less risky banks, but is significantly reduced in the post IFRS period. Capital management behavior by bank managers is not significant in both pre and post IFRS regimes. Overall, we conclude that the implementation of IFRS in the EU appears to have improved earnings quality by mitigating the tendency of bank managers of listed commercial banks to engage in earnings management using loan loss provisions.

We explore how expansionary monetary policy (EMP) influences bank loan loss provisioning. We find that banks’ discretionary loan loss provisions (DLLPs) increase during periods of EMP. This effect is stronger for banks with greater risk-taking, a larger proportion of influential stakeholders, lower ex-ante transparency of loan loss provisions, and more stringent bank regulation, which is consistent with external stakeholders requiring more conservative and timelier loan loss provisioning. We also find that both the timeliness and the validity of banks’ loan loss provisions (LLPs) increase during EMP periods. Our results are robust to the use of instrumental variable estimation and exogenous variations in monetary policy. Lastly, we show that conservative (i.e., higher DLLPs) and timely loan loss provisioning discipline banks from excessive risk-taking during periods of EMP.

The global financial crisis of 2008 sparked new ideas on pro-cyclical transmission in the financial system. The accounting treatment method of loan loss provisions differs between the accounting standards that banks use and the supervisory rules of banks. This fundamental difference has attracted wide attention from academics and regulators. This article studies whether bank loan loss provisions affect credit fluctuation in China's banking system. We divide loan loss provisions into discretionary and non-discretionary loan loss provisions. We find that non-discretionary loan loss provisions result in greater credit fluctuation, whereas discretionary loan loss provisions have no significant impact on credit fluctuation. Further evidence shows that the relation between non-discretionary loan loss provisions and credit fluctuations does not vary among different types of banks. Overall, our study shows that non-discretionary loan loss provisions can increase credit fluctuation and therefore strengthen banks' pro-cyclical behavior.

Economic policymakers express concern that procyclical lending by banks imperils financial stability. Prior research finds that banks that record timelier loan loss provisions originate more loans during downturns, consistent with loan loss–provision timeliness mitigating loan-origination procyclicality. Motivated by this concern and research, we examine whether banks’ credit risk modeling disciplines both their loan loss provisions and loan origination. We identify two forms of credit risk modeling from banks’ financial report disclosures: statistical modeling of the drivers of past loan losses and stress testing of future loan losses to adverse scenarios. We show that banks’ credit risk–modeling disclosures are positively associated with their loan loss–provision timeliness, with the ability of their provisions to predict future loan charge-offs, and with their loan origination during downturns. We further show that these associations vary in predictable ways across the two forms of credit risk modeling when we distinguish homogeneous from heterogeneous loans and stable periods from downturns. This paper was accepted by Mary Barth, accounting.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate two research questions: do accounting reports provide information that helps bondholders assess credit risk of financial institutions? What are the relevant accounting variables related to financial institutions’ credit spreads? Design/methodology/approach The authors estimate all models of credit spread by specifying fixed effects with year dummies. Findings The authors’ document that financial institutions’ cash flows and loan loss provisions (LLP) are significantly correlated with bond spreads. The authors observe that an increase in nondiscretionary LLP predicts an increase in credit spreads, as the former reflects a higher default risk. Bondholders also react negatively to an increase in discretionary LLP, viewed as evidence that a financial institution is engaged in opportunistic earnings or tax management. Finally, the authors demonstrate that the relationship between accounting data and credit spreads is stronger for high-yield bonds than for low-yield bond. Research limitations/implications This study has certain limitations due to the sample size and data frequency. Practical implications First, this paper provides strong evidence to all market participants that financial accounting reports are useful in forecasting credit risk in emerging markets. Second, the paper highlights the importance of disclosure policies and accounting transparency of financial institutions in emerging markets. Third, the results are also of practical interest to standard setters and financial regulators. The latter should consider monitoring accruals, especially the discretionary component of LLP, to mitigate the effects of accounting manipulations and managers’ opportunism. Originality/value First, the previous literature does not focus on financial institutions despite their key role in the economy. Second, the paper is the first to study the credit relevance of accounting information in emerging markets (Tunisia).

Policy uncertainty is an increasingly important issue in many economies. Extensive evidence indicates that higher policy uncertainty is associated with future negative macroeconomic and microeconomic conditions. In this paper, we examine how policy uncertainty affects banks’ accruals for loan losses. Consistent with banks signaling more expected loan losses, we document that in times of higher policy uncertainty, banks make more loan loss provisions. This positive association is more pronounced for banks that were previously less prudent in their risk-taking and loan loss reserving, indicating that less prudent banks are harmed more by loan losses in difficult times. We also show that higher attention paid to a banks’ financial reporting strengthens the role of loan loss provisions as a signal of expected loan losses. Overall, our paper offers insight into how, in the face of policy uncertainty, banks convey information about their loan portfolios to their stakeholders.

The use of accounting measures and disclosures in banks' contracts and regulation suggests that the quality of banks' financial reporting is central to the efficacy of market discipline and nonmarket mechanisms in limiting banks' development of debt and risk overhangs in economic good times and in mitigating the adverse consequences of those overhangs for the stability of the financial system in downturns. This essay examines how research on banks' financial reporting, informed by the financial economics literature on banking, can generate insights about how to enhance the stability of the financial system. We begin with a foundational discussion of how aspects of banks' accounting and disclosures may affect stability. We then evaluate representative papers in the empirical literature on banks' financial reporting and stability, pointing out the research design issues that empirical accounting researchers need to confront to develop well-specified tests able to generate reliably interpretable findings. To this end, we provide examples of settings amenable to addressing these issues. We conclude with considerations for accounting standard setters and financial system policy makers.