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Aim: Conservationists have been using ecological niche modelling (ENM) to understand how climate change impacts species, estimate their extinction risk and assess species conservation status in the future. However, most ENMs are built using just current species occurrences. As short-term observations are naturally biased and incomplete in both geographical and climate spaces, palaeontologists have recommended the use of fossil data to improve species vulnerability assessments. Here, we used a time structured data set of the jaguar Panthera onca (Linnaeus, 1758) to test the implications of fossil data on distinct distribution dynamics and conservation status predicted by ENMs under future climate change scenarios. Location: The New World. Methods: We built two classes of ENMs, (i) using only current occurrences of P. onca and (ii) combining current and fossil information. Models were then projected onto current and future climates. Results: Niche models calibrated using fossil data broadly predicted more optimistic conservation statuses, with larger suitable areas for the species in the future, which are geographically nearest to its current distribution and better represented within protected areas (current network of protected areas will hold significant suitable areas). Main conclusions: Fossils provided complementary information about different climate conditions that species experienced though time and filled empty spaces in currently unoccupied fundamental niche. Our analyses reinforce the idea the fossil record is a valuable source of alternative information to increase the reliability of ENMs when assessing biodiversity risk. Combining ecological and palaeontological data for niche modelling increase our understanding about species responses to changing climates. Consequently, it potentially improves our knowledge on how to manage biodiversity by more reliably anticipating the effects of climate change and proactively—rather than reactively—planning conservation actions over longer periods going forward.

We summarize >80 accounts of jaguars killed and/or photographed in Arizona during a 160-year period. These accounts include 13 previously unrecorded animals and six contemporary photographic records. The period with most records occurred between 1900 and 1920. Occurrences ranged from Sonoran desertscrub < 1000 m ASL to mixed confer forest at 2,134 m ASL. Every county in Arizona save four had jaguar records and distribution of records indicate a north by northwest movement along montane corridors from the southeastern quarter of the state northwest to the Grand Canyon. Three counties bordering Sonora yielded numerous records over protracted periods, namely Santa Cruz, Cochise, and Pima Counties. The distribution, number of occurrences and records of females and sub-adults before 1920 suggest some animals may have been breeding residents.

Broad scale population estimates of declining species are desired for conservation efforts. However, for many secretive species including large carnivores, such estimates are often difficult. Based on published density estimates obtained through camera trapping, presence/absence data, and globally available predictive variables derived from satellite imagery, we modelled density and occurrence of a large carnivore, the jaguar, across the species' entire range. We then combined these models in a hierarchical framework to estimate the total population. Our models indicate that potential jaguar density is best predicted by measures of primary productivity, with the highest densities in the most productive tropical habitats and a clear declining gradient with distance from the equator. Jaguar distribution, in contrast, is determined by the combined effects of human impacts and environmental factors: probability of jaguar occurrence increased with forest cover, mean temperature, and annual precipitation and declined with increases in human foot print index and human density. Probability of occurrence was also significantly higher for protected areas than outside of them. We estimated the world's jaguar population at 173,000 (95% CI: 138,000-208,000) individuals, mostly concentrated in the Amazon Basin; elsewhere, populations tend to be small and fragmented. The high number of jaguars results from the large total area still occupied (almost 9 million km2) and low human densities (< 1 person/km2) coinciding with high primary productivity in the core area of jaguar range. Our results show the importance of protected areas for jaguar persistence. We conclude that combining modelling of density and distribution can reveal ecological patterns and processes at global scales, can provide robust estimates for use in species assessments, and can guide broad-scale conservation actions.

Accurately estimating home range and understanding movement behavior can provide important information on ecological processes. Advances in data collection and analysis have improved our ability to estimate home range and movement parameters, both of which have the potential to impact species conservation. Fitting continuous-time movement model to data and incorporating the autocorrelated kernel density estimator (AKDE), we investigated range residency of forty-four jaguars fit with GPS collars across five biomes in Brazil and Argentina. We assessed home range and movement parameters of range resident animals and compared AKDE estimates with kernel density estimates (KDE). We accounted for differential space use and movement among individuals, sex, region, and habitat quality. Thirty-three (80%) of collared jaguars were range resident. Home range estimates using AKDE were 1.02 to 4.80 times larger than KDE estimates that did not consider autocorrelation. Males exhibited larger home ranges, more directional movement paths, and a trend towards larger distances traveled per day. Jaguars with the largest home ranges occupied the Atlantic Forest, a biome with high levels of deforestation and high human population density. Our results fill a gap in the knowledge of the species´ ecology with an aim towards better conservation of this endangered/critically endangered carnivore-the top predator in the Neotropics.

Energetic subsidies between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems can strongly influence food webs and population dynamics. Our objective was to study how aquatic subsidies affected jaguar (Panthera onca) diet, sociality, and population density in a seasonally flooded protected area in the Brazilian Pantanal. The diet (n = 138 scats) was dominated by fish (46%) and aquatic reptiles (55%), representing the first jaguar population known to feed extensively on fish and to minimally consume mammals (11%). These aquatic subsidies supported the highest jaguar population density estimate to date (12.4 jaguars/100 km²) derived from camera traps (8,065 trap nights) and GPS collars (n = 13). Contrary to their mostly solitary behavior elsewhere, we documented social interactions previously unobserved between same-sex adults including cooperative fishing, co-traveling, and play. Our study demonstrates that aquatic subsidies, frequently described in omnivores, can also transform the ecology and behavior of obligate carnivores.

The jaguar (Panthera onca) is a keystone species within diverse ecosystems ranging from dense rainforests to open grasslands across Central and South America. However, its populations are declining rapidly due to anthropogenic actions, such as deforestation and poaching. Here we investigate the effects of this decline on genetic diversity and genetic health. Utilizing both modern and historical museum samples, we infer population structure and immunome variability in 25 jaguars to identify unique genetic diversity that can inform targeted conservation efforts. Our genome-wide analyses identifies three distinct geographic populations: Central America, South American lowlands, and South American highlands. Modern samples that exhibit lower levels of heterozygosity also show higher levels of inbreeding. The South American lowland population shows the lowest levels of inbreeding, while the highland population exhibits the lowest overall immunome-wide variability. However, the innate (Natural Killer Cell Complex, Toll-Like Receptor) and adaptive (Major Histocompatibility Complex Class II) immune genes, which are crucial for adaptive responses and disease resilience, show high diversity in terms of heterozygosity and haplotype diversity in individuals of all three populations. South American highland and Central American jaguars face significant threats from habitat loss and fragmentation. The observed genome- and immunome-wide diversity in historical and modern jaguars reflect their recent demographic decline and challenges of local adaptation. We recommend re-evaluating evolutionarily significant units to prioritize conservation strategies, ensuring the preservation of unique genetic and adaptive diversity crucial for the species' resilience and long-term survival.

All species of big cats, including tigers, cheetahs, leopards, lions, snow leopards, and jaguars, are protected under the Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES). This is due in large part to population declines resulting from anthropogenic factors, especially poaching and the unregulated and illegal trade in pelts, bones, teeth and other products that are derived from these iconic species. To enhance and scale up monitoring for big cat products in this trade, we created a rapid multiplex qPCR test that can identify and differentiate DNA from tiger ( Panthera tigris ), cheetah ( Acinonyx jubatus ), leopard ( Panthera pardus ), lion ( Panthera leo ), snow leopard ( Panthera uncia ), and jaguar ( Panthera onca ) in wildlife products using melt curve analysis to identify each species by its unique melt peak temperature. Our results showed high PCR efficiency (> 90%), sensitivity (detection limit of 5 copies of DNA per PCR reaction) and specificity (no cross amplification between each of the 6 big cat species). When paired with a rapid (< 1 h) DNA extraction protocol that amplifies DNA from bone, teeth, and preserved skin, total test time is less than three hours. This test can be used as a screening method to improve our understanding of the scale and scope of the illegal trade in big cats and aid in the enforcement of international regulations that govern the trade in wildlife and wildlife products, both ultimately benefiting the conservation of these species worldwide.

The IUCN Red List is widely used to guide conservation policy and practice. However, in most cases the evaluation of a species using IUCN Red List criteria takes into account only the global status of the species. Although subpopulations may be assessed using the IUCN categories and criteria, this rarely occurs, either because it is difficult to identify subpopulations or because of the effort involved. Using the jaguar Panthera onca as a model we illustrate that wide-ranging species that are assigned a particular category of threat based on the IUCN Red List criteria may display considerable heterogeneity within individual taxa in terms of the level of risk they face. Using the information available on the conservation status of the species, we evaluated the jaguar's current geographical range and its subpopulations. We identified the most threatened subpopulations, using the extent of occurrence, area of occupancy, population size and the level of threat to each subpopulation. The main outcome of this analysis was that although a large subpopulation persists in Amazonia, virtually all others are threatened because of their small size, isolation, deficient protection and the high human population density. Based on this approach, future conservation efforts can be prioritized for the most threatened subpopulations. Based on our findings we recommend that for future Red List assessments assessors consider the value of undertaking assessments at the subpopulation level. For the jaguar, sub-global assessments should be included on the Red List as a matter of urgency.

Trotting, ledgering, spinning, popping, dapping, float fishing, fly casting...the fisherman must choose his technique wisely to match his quarry and the water in which it lives. The jaguar {Panthera onca) apparently knows this too. Across Amazonia it has long been held that the jaguar uses different fishing techniques, including one so extraordinary that you might instantly regard it a flight of fancy. But beware, for if the jaguar does indeed fish with its tail, it might just catch you out.