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In many supervised learning applications, understanding and visualizing the effects of the predictor variables on the predicted response is of paramount importance. A shortcoming of black box supervised learning models (e.g. complex trees, neural networks, boosted trees, random forests, nearest neighbours, local kernel-weighted methods and support vector regression) in this regard is their lack of interpretability or transparency. Partial dependence plots, which are the most popular approach for visualizing the effects of the predictors with black box supervised learning models, can produce erroneous results if the predictors are strongly correlated, because they require extrapolation of the response at predictor values that are far outside the multivariate envelope of the training data. As an alternative to partial dependence plots, we present a new visualization approach that we term accumulated local effects plots, which do not require this unreliable extrapolation with correlated predictors. Moreover, accumulated local effects plots are far less computationally expensive than partial dependence plots.We also provide an R package ALEPlot as supplementary material to implement our proposed method.

As the world’s largest energy consumer and carbon emitter, the task of carbon emission reduction is imminent. In order to realize the dual-carbon goal at an early date, it is necessary to study the key factors affecting China’s carbon emissions and their non-linear relationships. This paper compares the performance of six machine learning algorithms to that of traditional econometric models in predicting carbon emissions in China from 2011 to 2020 using panel data from 254 cities in China. Specifically, it analyzes the comparative importance of domestic economic, external economic, and policy uncertainty factors as well as the nonparametric relationship between these factors and carbon emissions based on the Extra-trees model. Results show that energy consumption (ENC) remains the root cause of increased carbon emissions among domestic economic factors, although government intervention (GOV) and digital finance (DIG) can significantly reduce it. Next, among the external economic and policy uncertainty factors, foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) are important factors influencing carbon emissions, and the partial dependence plots (PDPs) confirm the pollution haven hypothesis and also reveal the role of EPU in reducing carbon emissions. The heterogeneity of factors affecting carbon emissions is also analyzed under different city sizes, and it is found that ENC is a common driving factor in cities of different sizes, but there are some differences. Finally, appropriate policy recommendations are proposed by us to help China move rapidly towards a green and sustainable development path.

Atmospheric fine particles (PM2.5) have been found to be harmful to the environment and human health. Recently, remote sensing technology and machine learning models have been used to monitor PM2.5 concentrations. Partial dependence plots (PDP) were used to explore the meteorology mechanisms between predictor variables and PM2.5 concentration in the “black box” models. However, there are two key shortcomings in the original PDP. (1) it calculates the marginal effect of feature(s) on the predicted outcome of a machine learning model, therefore some local effects might be hidden. (2) it requires that the feature(s) for which the partial dependence is computed are not correlated with other features, otherwise the estimated feature effect has a great bias. In this study, the original PDP’s shortcomings were analyzed. Results show the contradictory correlation between the temperature and the PM2.5 concentration that can be given by the original PDP. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of PM2.5-AOD relationship cannot be displayed well by the original PDP. The drawbacks of the original PDP make it unsuitable for exploring large-area feature effects. To resolve the above issue, multi-way PDP is recommended, which can characterize how the PM2.5 concentrations changed with the temporal and spatial variations of major meteorological factors in China.

The interpretation of feature importance in machine learning models is challenging when features are dependent. Permutation feature importance (PFI) ignores such dependencies, which can cause misleading interpretations due to extrapolation. A possible remedy is more advanced conditional PFI approaches that enable the assessment of feature importance conditional on all other features. Due to this shift in perspective and in order to enable correct interpretations, it is beneficial if the conditioning is transparent and comprehensible. In this paper, we propose a new sampling mechanism for the conditional distribution based on permutations in conditional subgroups. As these subgroups are constructed using tree-based methods such as transformation trees, the conditioning becomes inherently interpretable. This not only provides a simple and effective estimator of conditional PFI, but also local PFI estimates within the subgroups. In addition, we apply the conditional subgroups approach to partial dependence plots, a popular method for describing feature effects that can also suffer from extrapolation when features are dependent and interactions are present in the model. In simulations and a real-world application, we demonstrate the advantages of the conditional subgroup approach over existing methods: It allows to compute conditional PFI that is more true to the data than existing proposals and enables a fine-grained interpretation of feature effects and importance within the conditional subgroups.

In recent years, artificial intelligence-based computer aided diagnosis (CAD) system for the hepatitis has made great progress. Especially, the complex models such as deep learning achieve better performance than the simple ones due to the nonlinear hypotheses of the real world clinical data. However,complex model as a black box, which ignores why it make a certain decision, causes the model distrust from clinicians. To solve these issues, an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) framework is proposed in this paper to give the global and local interpretation of auxiliary diagnosis of hepatitis while retaining the good prediction performance. First, a public hepatitis classification benchmark from UCI is used to test the feasibility of the framework. Then, the transparent and black-box machine learning models are both employed to forecast the hepatitis deterioration. The transparent models such as logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT)and k-nearest neighbor (KNN) are picked. While the black-box model such as the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), random forests (RF) are selected. Finally, the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) and Partial Dependence Plots (PDP) are utilized to improve the model interpretation of liver disease. The experimental results show that the complex models outperform the simple ones. The developed RF achieves the highest accuracy (91.9%) among all the models. The proposed framework combining the global and local interpretable methods improves the transparency of complex models, and gets insight into the judgments from the complex models, thereby guiding the treatment strategy and improving the prognosis of hepatitis patients. In addition, the proposed framework could also assist the clinical data scientists to design a more appropriate structure of CAD.

The primary aim of this study was to examine whether accuracy of rugby union match prediction outcomes differed dependent on the method of data analysis (i.e., isolated vs. descriptively converted or relative data). A secondary aim was to then use the most appropriate method to investigate the performance indicators (PI’s) most relevant to match outcome. Data was 16 PI’s from 127 matches across the 2016–17 English Premiership rugby season. Given the binary outcome (win/lose), a random forest classification model was built using these data sets. Predictive ability of the models was further assessed by predicting outcomes from data sets of 72 matches across the 2017–18 season. The relative data model attained a balanced prediction rate of 80% (95% CI – 75–85%) for 2016–17 data, whereas the isolated data model only achieved 64% (95% CI – 58–70%). In addition, the relative data model correctly predicted 76% (95% CI – 68–84%) of the 2017–18 data, compared with 70% (95% CI – 63–77%) for the isolated data model. From the relative data model, 10 PI’s had significant relationships with game outcome; kicks from hand, clean breaks, average carry distance, penalties conceded when the opposition have the ball, turnovers conceded, total metres carried, defenders beaten, ratio of tackles missed to tackles made, total missed tackles, and turnovers won. Outcomes of Premiership rugby matches are better predicted when relative data sets are utilised. Basic open-field abilities based around an effective kicking game, ball carrying abilities, and not conceding penalties when the opposition are in possession are the most relevant predictors of success.

Fragmentation size is an important indicator for evaluating blasting effectiveness. To address the limitations of conventional blasting fragmentation size prediction methods in terms of prediction accuracy and applicability, this study proposes an NRBO-CNN-LSSVM model for predicting mean fragmentation size, which integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Least Squares Support Vector Machines (LSSVM), and the Newton-Raphson Optimizer (NRBO). The study is based on a database containing 105 samples derived from both previous research and field collection. Additionally, several machine learning prediction models, including CNN-LSSVM, CNN, LSSVM, Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Support Vector Regression (SVR), are developed for comparative analysis. The results showed that the NRBO-CNN-LSSVM model achieved remarkable prediction accuracy on the training dataset, with a coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) as high as 0.9717 and a root mean square error ( RMSE ) as low as 0.0285. On the test set, the model maintained high prediction accuracy, with an R 2 value of 0.9105 and an RMSE of 0.0403. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis revealed that the modulus of elasticity ( E ) was a key variable influencing the prediction of mean fragmentation size. Partial Dependence Plots (PDP) analysis further disclosed a significant positive correlation between the modulus of elasticity ( E ) and mean fragmentation size. In contrast, a distinct negative correlation was observed between the powder factor ( P f ) and mean fragmentation size. To enhance the convenience of the model in practical applications, we developed an interactive Graphical User Interface (GUI), allowing users to input relevant variables and obtain instant prediction results.

The incorporation of fibers into Ultra-High-Performance Concrete (UHPC) significantly enhances its flexural strength and ductility, making it a desirable material for high-performance structural applications. However, predicting the flexural behavior of fiber-reinforced UHPC remains challenging due to the complex interactions among constituent materials. This complexity increases further with the partial replacement of cement by supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs), which alter matrix reactivity and microstructure. To address these challenges, this study employs Random Forest (RF) regression to predict the ultimate flexural strength of UHPC, incorporating mixtures with diverse SCM combinations and up to two different fiber types. A dataset of 550 experimental mixtures, comprising 41 input variables, was used to train and validate the model. Results highlight the critical influence of fiber type and dosage, as well as matrix parameters such as cement and silica fume content, water-to-binder ratio, and aggregate size. Partial Dependence Plots (PDPs) were used to visualize these effects, offering interpretable insights into the flexural behavior of UHPC under bending loads.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has achieved immense progress in recent years across a wide array of application domains, with biomedical imaging and sensing emerging as particularly impactful areas. However, the integration of AI in safety-critical fields, particularly biomedical domains, continues to face a major challenge of explainability arising from the opacity of complex prediction models. Overcoming this obstacle falls within the realm of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), which is widely acknowledged as an essential aspect for successfully implementing and accepting AI techniques in practical applications to ensure transparency, fairness, and accountability in the decision-making processes and mitigate potential biases. This article provides a systematic cross-domain review of XAI techniques applied to quantitative prediction tasks, with a focus on their methodological relevance and potential adaptation to biomedical imaging and sensing. To achieve this, following PRISMA guidelines, we conducted an analysis of 44 Q1 journal articles that utilised XAI techniques for prediction applications across different fields where quantitative databases were used, and their contributions to explaining the predictions were studied. As a result, 13 XAI techniques were identified for prediction tasks. Shapley Additive eXPlanations (SHAP) was identified in 35 out of 44 articles, reflecting its frequent computational use for feature-importance ranking and model interpretation. Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME), Partial Dependence Plots (PDPs), and Permutation Feature Index (PFI) ranked second, third, and fourth in popularity, respectively. The study also recognises theoretical limitations of SHAP and related model-agnostic methods, such as their additive and causal assumptions, which are particularly critical in heterogeneous biomedical data. Furthermore, a synthesis of the reviewed studies reveals that while many provide computational evaluation of explanations, none include structured human–subject usability validation, underscoring an important research gap for clinical translation. Overall, this study offers an integrated understanding of quantitative XAI techniques, identifies methodological and usability gaps for biomedical adaptation, and provides guidance for future research aimed at safe and interpretable AI deployment in biomedical imaging and sensing.

In recent years, the field of construction engineering has experienced a significant paradigm shift, embracing the integration of machine learning (ML) methodologies, with a particular emphasis on forecasting the characteristics of steel-fiber-reinforced concrete (SFRC). Despite the theoretical sophistication of existing models, persistent challenges remain—their opacity, lack of transparency, and real-world relevance for practitioners. To address this gap and advance our current understanding, this study employs the extra gradient (XG) boosting algorithm, crafting a comprehensive approach. Grounded in a meticulously curated database drawn from 43 seminal publications, encompassing 420 distinct records, this research focuses predominantly on three primary fiber types: crimped, hooked, and mil-cut. Complemented by hands-on experimentation involving 20 diverse SFRC mixtures, this empirical campaign is further illuminated through the strategic use of partial dependence plots (PDPs), revealing intricate relationships between input parameters and consequent compressive strength. A pivotal revelation of this research lies in the identification of optimal SFRC formulations, offering tangible insights for real-world applications. The developed ML model stands out not only for its sophistication but also its tangible accuracy, evidenced by exemplary performance against independent datasets, boasting a commendable mean target-prediction ratio of 99%. To bridge the theory–practice gap, we introduce a user-friendly digital interface, thoroughly designed to guide professionals in optimizing and accurately predicting the compressive strength of SFRC. This research thus contributes to the construction and civil engineering sectors by enhancing predictive capabilities and refining mix designs, fostering innovation, and addressing the evolving needs of the industry.