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Fitting a cubic smoothing spline is a typical smoothing method. This paper reveals a principle of duality in the penalized least squares regressions relating to the method. We also provide a number of results derived from them, some of which are illustrated by a real data example.

This article discusses a general framework for smoothing parameter estimation for models with regular likelihoods constructed in terms of unknown smooth functions of covariates. Gaussian random effects and parametric terms may also be present. By construction the method is numerically stable and convergent, and enables smoothing parameter uncertainty to be quantified. The latter enables us to fix a well known problem with AIC for such models, thereby improving the range of model selection tools available. The smooth functions are represented by reduced rank spline like smoothers, with associated quadratic penalties measuring function smoothness. Model estimation is by penalized likelihood maximization, where the smoothing parameters controlling the extent of penalization are estimated by Laplace approximate marginal likelihood. The methods cover, for example, generalized additive models for nonexponential family responses (e.g., beta, ordered categorical, scaled t distribution, negative binomial and Tweedie distributions), generalized additive models for location scale and shape (e.g., two stage zero inflation models, and Gaussian location-scale models), Cox proportional hazards models and multivariate additive models. The framework reduces the implementation of new model classes to the coding of some standard derivatives of the log-likelihood. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Penalized regression methods, such as L ₁ regularization, are routinely used in high-dimensional applications, and there is a rich literature on optimality properties under sparsity assumptions. In the Bayesian paradigm, sparsity is routinely induced through two-component mixture priors having a probability mass at zero, but such priors encounter daunting computational problems in high dimensions. This has motivated continuous shrinkage priors, which can be expressed as global-local scale mixtures of Gaussians, facilitating computation. In contrast to the frequentist literature, little is known about the properties of such priors and the convergence and concentration of the corresponding posterior distribution. In this article, we propose a new class of Dirichlet–Laplace priors, which possess optimal posterior concentration and lead to efficient posterior computation. Finite sample performance of Dirichlet–Laplace priors relative to alternatives is assessed in simulated and real data examples.

Recent work by Reiss and Ogden provides a theoretical basis for sometimes preferring restricted maximum likelihood (REML) to generalized cross-validation (GCV) for smoothing parameter selection in semiparametric regression. However, existing REML or marginal likelihood (ML) based methods for semiparametric generalized linear models (GLMs) use iterative REML or ML estimation of the smoothing parameters of working linear approximations to the GLM. Such indirect schemes need not converge and fail to do so in a non-negligible proportion of practical analyses. By contrast, very reliable prediction error criteria smoothing parameter selection methods are available, based on direct optimization of GCV, or related criteria, for the GLM itself. Since such methods directly optimize properly defined functions of the smoothing parameters, they have much more reliable convergence properties. The paper develops the first such method for REML or ML estimation of smoothing parameters. A Laplace approximation is used to obtain an approximate REML or ML for any GLM, which is suitable for efficient direct optimization. This REML or ML criterion requires that Newton-Raphson iteration, rather than Fisher scoring, be used for GLM fitting, and a computationally stable approach to this is proposed. The REML or ML criterion itself is optimized by a Newton method, with the derivatives required obtained by a mixture of implicit differentiation and direct methods. The method will cope with numerical rank deficiency in the fitted model and in fact provides a slight improvement in numerical robustness on the earlier method of Wood for prediction error criteria based smoothness selection. Simulation results suggest that the new REML and ML methods offer some improvement in mean-square error performance relative to GCV or Akaike's information criterion in most cases, without the small number of severe undersmoothing failures to which Akaike's information criterion and GCV are prone. This is achieved at the same computational cost as GCV or Akaike's information criterion. The new approach also eliminates the convergence failures of previous REML- or ML-based approaches for penalized GLMs and usually has lower computational cost than these alternatives. Example applications are presented in adaptive smoothing, scalar on function regression and generalized additive model selection.

We compare alternative computing strategies for solving the constrained lasso problem. As its name suggests, the constrained lasso extends the widely used lasso to handle linear constraints, which allow the user to incorporate prior information into the model. In addition to quadratic programming, we employ the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) and also derive an efficient solution path algorithm. Through both simulations and benchmark data examples, we compare the different algorithms and provide practical recommendations in terms of efficiency and accuracy for various sizes of data. We also show that, for an arbitrary penalty matrix, the generalized lasso can be transformed to a constrained lasso, while the converse is not true. Thus, our methods can also be used for estimating a generalized lasso, which has wide-ranging applications. Code for implementing the algorithms is freely available in both the Matlab toolbox SparseReg and the Julia package ConstrainedLasso . Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

In evaluation of cancer risk related to environmental chemical exposures, the effect of many chemicals on disease is ultimately of interest. However, because of potentially strong correlations among chemicals that occur together, traditional regression methods suffer from collinearity effects, including regression coefficient sign reversal and variance inflation. In addition, penalized regression methods designed to remediate collinearity may have limitations in selecting the truly bad actors among many correlated components. The recently proposed method of weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression attempts to overcome these problems by estimating a body burden index, which identifies important chemicals in a mixture of correlated environmental chemicals. Our focus was on assessing through simulation studies the accuracy of WQS regression in detecting subsets of chemicals associated with health outcomes (binary and continuous) in site-specific analyses and in non-site-specific analyses. We also evaluated the performance of the penalized regression methods of lasso, adaptive lasso, and elastic net in correctly classifying chemicals as bad actors or unrelated to the outcome. We based the simulation study on data from the National Cancer Institute Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results Program (NCI-SEER) case-control study of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) to achieve realistic exposure situations. Our results showed that WQS regression had good sensitivity and specificity across a variety of conditions considered in this study. The shrinkage methods had a tendency to incorrectly identify a large number of components, especially in the case of strong association with the outcome.

A number of variable selection methods have been proposed involving nonconvex penalty functions. These methods, which include the smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) penalty and the minimax concave penalty (MCP), have been demonstrated to have attractive theoretical properties, but model fitting is not a straightforward task, and the resulting solutions may be unstable. Here, we demonstrate the potential of coordinate descent algorithms for fitting these models, establishing theoretical convergence properties and demonstrating that they are significantly faster than competing approaches. In addition, we demonstrate the utility of convexity diagnostics to determine regions of the parameter space in which the objective function is locally convex, even though the penalty is not. Our simulation study and data examples indicate that nonconvex penalties like MCP and SCAD are worthwhile alternatives to the lasso in many applications. In particular, our numerical results suggest that MCP is the preferred approach among the three methods.

Grouping structures arise naturally in many statistical modeling problems. Several methods have been proposed for variable selection that respect grouping structure in variables. Examples include the group LASSO and several concave group selection methods. In this article, we give a selective review of group selection concerning methodological developments, theoretical properties and computational algorithms. We pay particular attention to group selection methods involving concave penalties. We address both group selection and bi-level selection methods. We describe several applications of these methods in nonparametric additive models, semiparametric regression, seemingly unrelated regressions, genomic data analysis and genome wide association studies. We also highlight some issues that require further study.

The Lasso estimate for linear regression parameters can be interpreted as a Bayesian posterior mode estimate when the regression parameters have independent Laplace (i.e., double-exponential) priors. Gibbs sampling from this posterior is possible using an expanded hierarchy with conjugate normal priors for the regression parameters and independent exponential priors on their variances. A connection with the inverse-Gaussian distribution provides tractable full conditional distributions. The Bayesian Lasso provides interval estimates (Bayesian credible intervals) that can guide variable selection. Moreover, the structure of the hierarchical model provides both Bayesian and likelihood methods for selecting the Lasso parameter. Slight modifications lead to Bayesian versions of other Lasso-related estimation methods, including bridge regression and a robust variant.

If there are datasets, too large to fit into a single computer or too expensive for a computationally intensive data analysis, what should we do? We propose a split-and-conquer approach and illustrate it using several computationally intensive penalized regression methods, along with a theoretical support. We show that the split-and-conquer approach can substantially reduce computing time and computer memory requirements. The proposed methodology is illustrated numerically using both simulation and data examples.