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This report examines the role for natural resource wealth in driving Africa's economic transformation, and the implications of the low carbon transition for resource-rich economies. The report explores these themes and offers policy makers with a set of decision points to help them navigate the coming years of uncertainty.

Sub-Saharan Africa is on the verge of an energy boom. New discoveries off the East and West coasts have raised hopes of significant revenues that can accelerate poverty reduction and enhance Africa's status as a destination for industrial investment.

Are the current account fluctuations in oil-exporting countries \"excessive\"? How should their real exchange rate respond to the evolution of external (and domestic) fundamentals? This paper proposes methodologies tailored to the specific features of oil-exporting countries that help address these questions. Price-based methodologies (based on the time series of real effective exchange rates) identify a strong link between the real exchange rate and the terms of trade, but have relatively limited explanatory power. On the other hand, an empirical model of the current account, which fits oil exporting countries' data well, and an intertemporal model that takes into account the stock of oil reserves provide useful benchmarks for oil exporters' external balances.

This paper examines the structural competitiveness of oil-rich economies in sub-Saharan Africa relative to other major oil-exporting developing countries, and investigates reasons for systematic differences in the non-oil export performance across these economies. The analysis reveals that oil-rich Africa lags behind other oil-exporters in terms of diversification, global market share and the overall investment climate. The poor performance of their nonoil sector can be largely attributed to weak infrastructure and institutional quality. The results also show that institutional quality is a significant determinant of the extent to which oil abundance affects the competitiveness of the non-oil sector; thereby explaining the divergent experiences of oil-rich economies across the world. This implies that oil wealth does not necessarily weaken the non-oil tradable sector; countries may mitigate the impact of Dutch disease and benefit from oil booms if revenues are used prudently to reduce oil dependence.

This report is the first to examine tourism in Africa comprehensively and regionally and the first to recommend practical, evidence-based measures enabling the sector s economic and development power. This gives new impetus to the continent s development progress by leveraging tourism in pursuit of lasting poverty alleviation and the creation of significantly more jobs and opportunities for all Africans.

The Theory demonstrates that oil price and oil volatility (OVX) are significant determinants of economic activity; however, studies seldom consider both variables in the oil-exchange rate nexus and ignore the distributional heterogeneity of the exchange rate. We investigate their joint effect and employ both the quantile regression and Markov switching models to address this. We differentiate between positive/negative shocks and control for the effect of the global financial crisis in 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. We observe that OVX shocks significantly impact the exchange rate for all countries whereas, oil price shocks only affect the exchange rate of oil importing countries. Rising (falling) OVX causes the local currency to depreciate (appreciate). The impact of rising or falling OVX is the same for oil importing and oil exporting countries whereas the impact of rising and falling oil price varies. The impact of oil price and OVX on exchange rate is affected by market conditions. The exchange rate responds to oil price and OVX mostly at lower quantiles (bearish markets) for all countries, which reveals investors sensitivity. In contrast, a weak to no significant response is observed at the higher quantiles (bullish market). Our results are robust in model selection (Markov switching models).

China's economic ascendance over the past two decades has generated ripple effects in the world economy. Its search for natural resources to satisfy the demands of industrialization has led it to Sub-Saharan Africa. Trade between China and Africa in 2006 totaled more than $50 billion, with Chinese companies importing oil from Angola and Sudan, timber from Central Africa, and copper from Zambia. Demand from China has contributed to an upward swing in prices, particularly for oil and metals from Africa, and has given a boost to real GDP in Sub-Saharan Africa. Chinese aid and investment in infrastructure are bringing desperately needed capital to the continent. At the same time, however, strong Chinese demand for oil is contributing to an increase in the import bill for many oil-importing Sub-Saharan African countries, and its exports of low-cost textiles, while benefiting African consumers, is threatening to displace local production. China poses a challenge to good governance and macroeconomic management in Africa because of the potential Dutch disease implications of commodity booms. China presents both an opportunity for Africa to reduce its marginalization from the global economy and a challenge for it to effectively harness the influx of resources to promote poverty-reducing economic development at home.

Owing to its contribution to employment and non-oil revenue, agriculture remains a mainstay of Nigeria’s economy. The study attempts a contextualisation of agricultural development and its relationship with poverty and food security in Nigeria. The methodology adopted involves the review of relevant literature and analyses of secondary data. The study established that agriculture has lost its exalted status in Nigeria’s international trade outlook, with the nation being import-dependent. Besides the overdependence on oil, the study highlights critical constraints responsible for the unsatisfactory performance of the agricultural sector. The neglect of agriculture has coincided with a steady increase in poverty levels, accompanied with persisting issues of food insecurity. Prevalence of undernourishment is also positively associated with poverty or deprivation levels. The study recommends among others, renewed efforts towards economic diversification, increased investment and support for the agricultural sector particularly smallholders, as well as the development and long-term implementation of well thought-out agricultural policies.

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate the optimal inflation targets for an appropriate exchange rate policy in 15 major oil exporting countries in Sub-Saharan African (SSA). Design/methodology/approach - Dynamic heterogeneous panel threshold techniques are used via threshold-effect test and threshold regression. This procedure is achieved through a grid search and bootstrapping replications method to stimulate the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio test of the null hypothesis on no-threshold as against the alternative hypothesis. The p-values validate the threshold estimates. Findings - Findings revealed that the optimal inflation target has a turning point and its impact on the real exchange rate is up to a threshold level of 14.47 per cent. Furthermore, the inflation rate above the threshold level overwhelmingly revealed its effect on real exchange regimes. Research limitations/implications - It would have been a good idea to investigate optimal inflation targets for all African countries but due to inadequate data the selection criteria was narrowed to oil-exporting countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Practical implications Inflation targeting beyond the threshold level would have serious implications on the monetary policy. Originality/value - To the best of the knowledge, this is the first study to look at optimal inflation targets for 15 major oil exporting countries in general and SSA countries in particular. The findings provide a critical analysis of an inflation regime for a typical oil-producing country that oil exports being their source of revenue.

Over many years rises and fall of world oil prices have been repeatedly reflected in the boom-bust cycles in oil-exporting countries the world over. The recent spectacular rise and equally spectacular fall in prices provides an opportunity to inquire whether anything is different this time. In this paper we limit the analysis to the experience, outlook, and longterm fiscal policy considerations for eight of the world's oil-producing countries in sub- Saharan Africa. Because we are interested in gauging their fiscal vulnerability and sustainability from the angle of managing exhaustible oil wealth, we focus on the non-oil primary balance as the relevant indicator of how initial conditions and resource endowments can influence long-term considerations in several different models of fiscal rules.