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"Pflanzenbau."
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The Agricultural Origins of Time Preference
This research explores the origins of observed differences in time preference across countries and regions. Exploiting a natural experiment associated with the expansion of suitable crops for cultivation in the course of the Columbian Exchange, the research establishes that pre-industrial agro-climatic characteristics which were conducive to higher return to agricultural investment triggered selection, adaptation, and learning processes that generated a persistent positive effect on the prevalence of long-term orientation in the contemporary era. Furthermore, the research establishes that these agro-climatic characteristics have had a culturally embodied impact on economic behavior such as technological adoption, education, saving, and smoking.
Journal Article
Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from US Agriculture
Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on economic outcomes requires knowing how agents might adapt to a changing climate. We exploit large variation in recent temperature and precipitation trends to identify adaptation to climate change in US agriculture, and use this information to generate new estimates of the potential impact of future climate change on agricultural outcomes. Longer run adaptations appear to have mitigated less than half—and more likely none—of the large negative short-run impacts of extreme heat on productivity. Limited recent adaptation implies substantial losses under future climate change in the absence of countervailing investments.
Journal Article
Evolving Comparative Advantage and the Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Markets
A large agronomic literature models the implications of climate change for a variety of crops and locations around the world. The goal of the present paper is to quantify the macro-level consequences of these micro-level shocks. Using an extremely rich micro-level data set that contains information about the productivity—both before and after climate change—of each of 10 crops for each of 1.7 million fields covering the surface of the earth, we find that the impact of climate change on these agricultural markets would amount to a 0.26 percent reduction in global GDP when trade and production patterns are allowed to adjust. Since the value of output in our 10 crops is equal to 1.8 percent of world GDP, this corresponds to about one-sixth of total crop value.
Journal Article
Seasonal Liquidity, Rural Labor Markets, and Agricultural Production
Rural economies in many developing countries are characterized by a lean season in the months preceding harvest, when farmers have depleted their cash and grain savings from the previous year. To identify the impacts of liquidity during the lean season, we offered subsidized loans in randomly selected villages in rural Zambia. Ninety-eight percent of households took up the loan. Loan eligibility led to increases in on-farm labor and agricultural output, driving up wages in local labor markets. Larger effects for poorer households suggest that liquidity constraints contribute to inequality in rural economies.
Journal Article
Crop Planning in Sustainable Agriculture: Dynamic Farmland Allocation in the Presence of Crop Rotation Benefits
This paper examines crop planning decisions in sustainable agriculture—that is, how to allocate farmland among multiple crops in each growing season when the crops have rotation benefits across growing seasons. We consider a farmer who periodically allocates the farmland between two crops in the presence of revenue uncertainty where revenue is stochastically larger and farming cost is lower when a crop is grown on rotated farmland (where the other crop was grown in the previous season). We characterize the optimal dynamic farmland allocation policy and perform sensitivity analysis to investigate how revenue uncertainty of each crop affects the farmer’s optimal allocation decision and profitability. Using a calibration based on a farmer growing corn and soybeans in Iowa, we show that growing only one crop over the entire planning horizon, as employed in industrial agriculture, leads to a considerable profit loss—that is, crop planning based on principles of sustainable agriculture has substantial value. We propose a simple heuristic allocation policy, which we characterize in closed form. Using our model calibration, we show that (i) the proposed policy not only outperforms the commonly suggested heuristic policies in the literature, but also provides a near-optimal performance and (ii) compared with the optimal policy, the proposed policy has a higher allocation of crops to rotated farmland, and thus, it is potentially more environmentally friendly.
The online appendix is available at
https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2018.3044
.
This paper was accepted by Serguei Netessine, operations management.
Journal Article
A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on European Agriculture
This research estimates the impact of climate on European agriculture using a continental scale Ricardian analysis. Climate, soil, geography and regional socio-economic variables are matched with farm level data from 41,030 farms across Western Europe. We demonstrate that a median quantile regression outperforms OLS given farm level data. The results suggest that European farms are slightly more sensitive to warming than American farms with impacts from
+
5 to
-
32 % by 2100 depending on the climate scenario. Farms in Southern Europe are predicted to be particularly sensitive, suffering losses of
-
5 to
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9 % per degree Celsius.
Journal Article
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Crop Production in West Africa: Examining the Mitigating Potential of Social Protection
This study examined how the effect of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on crop production can be controlled in the West Africa sub-region. Social protection was used as a mitigating factor to absorb the effect of GHG emissions. The study engaged a panel data consisting of 14 Economic Community of West African States member countries to analyse the data which was sourced from the World Development Indicators and Country Policy and Institutional Assessments for the period 2000-2016, with the use of fixed and random effects econometric model. Results showed that an increase in greenhosue gas emissions reduced crop production by 0.13%, this is through the lowering of crop yields resulting from the emissions of GHGs. Therefore, based on the findings, the study recommended that effective social protection programmes such as the Linkage Assurance Crop Insurance Solutions that will provide cover against unavoidable loss of crops or resulting directly from the insured perils such as insurance against losses incurred from GHG emissions and other crop demaging activities shoud be implemented to reduce risks associated with farming. Keywords: Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Social Protection, Crop Production, West Africa JEL Classifications: D13, Q15, R11, L98 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7056
Journal Article
Additionality in U.S. Agricultural Conservation Programs
Agricultural conservation programs aim to improve environmental quality by using payments to support voluntary adoption of environmentally sound practices. Supported practices, however, yield additional environmental gain only if they would not have been adopted without payment. We estimate additionality for selected practices using propensity score matching to analyze data from the Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS). We find that greater than 95% of off-field structural practices (filter strips, riparian buffers) supported by payments are additional but that less than 50% of conservation tillage payments yield additional adoption. The effect of nutrient management payments varies across nutrient management practices and crops.
Journal Article
