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A data assimilation system (DAS) is described for global atmospheric reanalysis from 0- to 100-km altitude. We apply it to the 2014 austral winter of the Deep Propagating Gravity Wave Experiment (DEEPWAVE), an international field campaign focused on gravity wave dynamics from 0 to 100 km, where an absence of reanalysis above 60 km inhibits research. Four experiments were performed from April to September 2014 and assessed for reanalysis skill above 50 km. A four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) run specified initial background error covariances statically. A hybrid-4DVAR (HYBRID) run formed background error covariances from an 80-member forecast ensemble blended with a static estimate. Each configuration was run at low and high horizontal resolution. In addition to operational observations below 50 km, each experiment assimilated 105 observations of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) every 6 h. While all MLT reanalyses show skill relative to independent wind and temperature measurements, HYBRID outperforms 4DVAR. MLT fields at 1-h resolution (6-h analysis and 1–5-h forecasts) outperform 6-h analysis alone due to a migrating semidiurnal (SW2) tide that dominates MLT dynamics and is temporally aliased in 6-h time series. MLT reanalyses reproduce observed SW2 winds and temperatures, including phase structures and 10–15-day amplitude vacillations. The 0–100-km reanalyses reveal quasi-stationary planetary waves splitting the stratopause jet in July over New Zealand, decaying from 50 to 80 km then reintensifying above 80 km, most likely via MLT forcing due to zonal asymmetries in stratospheric gravity wave filtering.

Nine‐years of mesospheric wind measurements, from two meteor radars at 52°N latitude, were analyzed to study planetary waves (PWs) and tides through estimating their zonal wavenumbers. The analysis reveals that multi‐day oscillations are predominantly driven by PW normal modes (NMs), which exhibit distinct seasonal variations and statistical association with Sudden Stratospheric Warming events. Specifically, a prominent 6‐day NM emerges in April, followed by dominant 4‐ and 2‐day NMs persisting until June, with subsequent peaks of 2‐, 4‐, and 6‐day NMs extending from July to October. Furthermore, this study presents the first observational verification of the frequencies and zonal wavenumbers of over 10 secondary waves, arising from nonlinear interactions among planetary‐scale waves. A notable finding is the prevalence of non‐migrating components in the winter 24‐hr and summer 8‐hr tides, phenomena attributed to the nonlinear interactions. Our findings highlight the complexity of atmospheric nonlinear dynamics in generating diverse planetary‐scale periodic oscillations. Plain Language Summary By analyzing 9 years of wind data from two distinct longitudes, we investigated the origins of planetary‐scale atmospheric waves. Our research revealed that waves shaped by the atmosphere's physical properties drive most multi‐day wind fluctuations. These waves exhibit variability: some occur regularly between April and October, while others are associated with a meteorological event known as the sudden stratospheric warming. Interactions between these waves, tides, and other planetary‐scale phenomena generate secondary waves that are difficult to detect from a single station or single spacecraft analysis. By utilizing data from two longitudes, we identified more than 10 of these waves for the first time. These waves may explain the prevalence of non‐sun‐synchronous components in the 24‐hr and 8‐hr tides during certain seasons, which is unusual given the typical dominance of sun‐synchronous tides. Our findings underscore the extensive nonlinear behaviors of planetary‐scale waves, leading to a complex array of oscillations. Key Points Planetary wave normal modes drive multi‐day oscillations, showing April‐October seasonality and statistical SSW associations First evidence of frequency and zonal wavenumber matching for over 10 secondary waves of nonlinear interactions among planetary‐scale waves Non‐migrating components dominate the winter 24‐hr tide and summer 8‐hr tide, attributed to the nonlinear interactions

The present study investigated dominant characteristics of autumn Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) interannual variations and impacts of September–October (SO) mean SIC anomalies in the East Siberian–Chukchi–Beaufort (EsCB) Seas on winter Eurasian climate variability. Results showed that the decreased SO EsCB sea ice is favorable for tropospheric warming and positive geopotential height anomaly over the Arctic region one month later through transporting much more heat flux to the atmosphere from the open water. When entering the early winter (November–January), enhanced upward propagation of quasi-stationary planetary waves in the mid-high latitudes generates anomalous Eliassen–Palm flux convergence in the upper troposphere, which decelerates the westerly winds and maintains the positive geopotential height anomaly in the Arctic region. This anticyclonic anomaly extends southward into central-western Eurasia and leads to evident surface cooling there. Two months later, it further develops downstream accompanied by a deepened trough, making northeastern China experience a colder late winter (January–March). Meanwhile, an anticyclonic anomaly over the eastern North Pacific excites a horizontal eastward wave train and contributes to a positive (negative) geopotential height anomaly around Greenland (Europe), favoring a negative surface temperature anomaly over western Europe. In addition, the stratospheric polar vortex is also significantly weakened in the wintertime, which is attributed to a decreased meridional temperature gradient, and decelerated westerly winds provide a favorable condition for more quasi-stationary planetary waves propagating into the stratosphere. Some major features of atmospheric responses to EsCB sea ice loss are well reproduced in the CAM4 sensitivity experiments.

Middle atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) must employ a parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GWs). Such parameterizations typically make very simple assumptions about gravity wave sources, such as uniform distribution in space and time or an arbitrarily specified GW source function. The authors present a configuration of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) that replaces the arbitrarily specified GW source spectrum with GW source parameterizations. For the nonorographic wave sources, a frontal system and convective GW source parameterization are used. These parameterizations link GW generation to tropospheric quantities calculated by the GCM and provide a model-consistent GW representation. With the new GW source parameterization, a reasonable middle atmospheric circulation can be obtained and the middle atmospheric circulation is better in several respects than that generated by a typical GW source specification. In particular, the interannual NH stratospheric variability is significantly improved as a result of the source-oriented GW parameterization. It is also shown that the addition of a parameterization to estimate mountain stress due to unresolved orography has a large effect on the frequency of stratospheric sudden warmings in the NH stratosphere by changing the propagation of stationary planetary waves into the polar vortex.

Trends in the coupled stratosphere‐troposphere system during the 1979–2022 period are investigated in the Northern Hemisphere using reanalysis datasets. More upward planetary wave propagation in December is shown to precede the deceleration of the stratospheric polar vortex in January. This deceleration prevents the waves from continuing to propagate upward in February and favors an acceleration of the stratospheric polar vortex in March. This is associated with an increased Northern Hemisphere annular mode in March in the stratosphere and the troposphere. Trends show a moderate significance level because of strong interannual variability. Recent seasons whose anomalies project onto the trends are those for which wave‐1 anomaly constructively interferes with wave‐1 climatology in December, which occurs when there is warming in an area extending from Eastern Canada to Greenland and slight cooling over Eurasia. It shows the potential for predicting the springtime stratospheric polar vortex from wintertime wave‐1 anomalies. Plain Language Summary In winter the stratosphere hosts strong westerly winds forming the stratospheric polar vortex. Variations in the vortex strength can affect weather patterns in the underlying troposphere. Vice‐versa, the stratospheric vortex can also be disrupted by tropospheric waves that propagate upwards into the stratosphere. Sea‐ice loss from Arctic warming is amongst the forcings that have been proposed to produce tropospheric waves leading to a weakening of the polar vortex. However, there is a strong dependence of the stratospheric signal on the region of sea ice loss. In the present study, we show that mid‐winter to early spring stratospheric trends during the 1979–2022 period are linked to large‐scale surface temperature trends in December. Specifically, strong warming from Eastern Canada to Greenland and relative cooling over Eurasia in December are associated with enhanced upward wave propagation and a deceleration of the stratospheric polar vortex in January. In mid‐winter a weaker than usual vortex inhibits wave propagation to the stratosphere, allowing for a recovery in vortex strength by March. In conclusion, our work shows how the opposite mid‐winter and early spring trends in the stratosphere can be connected with stronger wave propagation from the surface in December and with its time‐evolving effects on troposphere–stratosphere coupling. Key Points January and March exhibit opposite trends in the stratospheric Northern Annular Mode (NAM) during 1979–2022 The negative (positive) trend in the NAM in January (March) is explained by more (less) upward wave propagation in December (February) More upward wave propagation in December is linked to warming over Eastern Canada and cooling over Siberia

We introduce a diagnostic tool to assess a climatological framework of the optimal propagation conditions for stationary planetary waves. Analyzing 50 winters using NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis data we derive probability density functions (PDFs) of positive vertical wave number as a function of zonal and meridional wave numbers. We contrast this quantity with classical climatological means of the vertical wave number. Introducing a membership value function (MVF) based on fuzzy logic, we objectively generate a modified set of PDFs (mPDFs) and demonstrate their superior performance compared to the climatological mean of vertical wave number and the original PDFs. We argue that mPDFs allow an even better understanding of how background conditions impact wave propagation in a climatological sense. As expected, probabilities are decreasing with increasing zonal wave numbers. In addition we discuss the meridional wave number dependency of the PDFs which is usually neglected, highlighting the contribution of meridional wave numbers 2 and 3 in the stratosphere. We also describe how mPDFs change in response to strong vortex regime (SVR) and weak vortex regime (WVR) conditions, with increased probabilities of the wave propagation during WVR than SVR in the stratosphere. We conclude that the mPDFs are a convenient way to summarize climatological information about planetary wave propagation in reanalysis and climate model data.

It is well established that the shallow branch of the Brewer‐Dobson circulation accelerates in a warming climate due to enhanced wave drag in the subtropical lower stratosphere. This has been linked to the strengthening of the upper flanks of the subtropical jets. However, the seasonality of the zonal wind trends, peaking in the winter hemisphere, is opposite to that of the Eliassen‐Palm flux convergence trends, peaking in summer. We investigate the seasonality in the wave drag trends and find a different behavior for each hemisphere. The Shepherd and McLandress (2011, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010jas3608.1) mechanism, involving transient wave dissipation at higher levels following the rise of the critical lines, is found to maximize in austral summer. On the other hand, in the Northern Hemisphere the wave drag increase peaks in summer primarily due to the changes in the stationary planetary waves (monsoonal circulations) associated with enhanced deep convection. Plain Language Summary The Brewer‐Dobson circulation, responsible for mass, heat and constituents global transport in the stratosphere, is projected to accelerate in a warming climate. This circulation is driven by the momentum transferred by dissipating waves. We explore the seasonality of trends in wave dissipation in the subtropical lower stratosphere. First, we show that the largest changes in the wave dissipation take place in the summer hemisphere, opposite to the largest changes in the zonal wind, which is known to control wave dissipation conditions. We investigate this apparent contradiction and find that (a) the conditions are particularly favorable for the waves to be affected by the changing wind in summer, due to their spectral characteristics and the structure of the background zonal wind, in particular the proximity of the zero wind line; and (b) in the Northern Hemisphere the changes are primarily associated with stationary waves triggered by enhanced deep convection in a warmer climate. Key Points Future subtropical trends in lower stratospheric wave drag are strongest in the summer hemisphere, whereas zonal wind trends peak in winter The largest changes in transient wave drag due to critical line shift are found in the Southern Hemisphere summer The Northern Hemisphere summer trends are mainly due to changes in stationary wave drag linked to stronger and higher deep convection

A major strong sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) occurred in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratosphere in 2002 (hereafter referred to as SSW2002), which is one of the most unusual winters in the SH. Following several warmings, the polar vortex broke down in midwinter. Eastward-traveling waves and their interaction with quasi-stationary planetary waves played an important role during this event. This study analyzed the Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA-55) dataset to examine the SSW event that occurred in the SH in 2019 (hereafter referred to as SSW2019). In 2019, a rapid temperature increase and decelerated westerly winds were observed at the polar cap, but since there was no reversal of westerly winds to easterly winds at 60∘ S in the middle to lower stratosphere, the SSW2019 was classified as a minor warming event. The results showed that quasi-stationary planetary waves of zonal wavenumber 1 developed during the SSW2019. The strong vertical component of the Eliassen–Palm flux with zonal wavenumber 1 is indicative of pronounced propagation of planetary waves to the stratosphere. The wave driving in September 2019 was larger than that of the major SSW event in 2002. Major SSWs tend to accompany preceding minor warmings, preconditioning, which changes the zonal flow that weaken the polar night jet as seen in SSW2002. A similar preconditioning was hardly observed in SSW2019. The strong wave driving in SSW2019 occurred in high latitudes. Waveguides (i.e., positive values of the refractive index squared) were found at high latitudes in the upper stratosphere during the warming period, which provided favorable conditions for quasi-stationary planetary waves to propagate upward and poleward.

The impact of tropical deep convection on southern winter stationary waves and its modulation by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) have been investigated in a long (210 year) climate model simulation and in ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the period 1979–2018. Model results reveal that tropical deep convection over the region of its climatological maximum modulates high-latitude stationary planetary waves in the southern winter hemisphere, corroborating the dominant role of tropical thermal forcing in the generation of these waves. In the tropics, deep convection enhancement leads to wavenumber-1 eddy anomalies that reinforce the climatological Rossby–Kelvin wave couplet. The Rossby wave propagates toward the extratropical southern winter hemisphere and upward through the winter stratosphere reinforcing wavenumber-1 climatological eddies. As a consequence, stronger tropical deep convection is related to greater upward wave propagation and, consequently, to a stronger Brewer–Dobson circulation and a warmer polar winter stratosphere. This linkage between tropical deep convection and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter polar vortex is also found in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Furthermore, model results indicate that the enhancement of deep convection observed during the easterly phase of the QBO (E-QBO) gives rise to a similar modulation of the southern winter extratropical stratosphere, which suggests that the QBO modulation of convection plays a fundamental role in the transmission of the QBO signature to the southern stratosphere during the austral winter, revealing a new pathway for the QBO–SH polar vortex connection. ERA-Interim corroborates a QBO modulation of deep convection; however, the shorter data record does not allow us to assess its possible impact on the SH polar vortex.

Using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis dataset, this study classifies stratospheric northern annular mode (NAM) anomalies during the negative or positive phase into two categories—anomalies extending into the troposphere [trop event (TE); referred to as negative or positive TEs] and those not extending into the troposphere [nontrop event (NTE); referred to as negative or positive NTEs], and the corresponding tropospheric environments during the TEs and NTEs are identified. Compared with that for the negative NTEs, the upward wave fluxes entering the stratosphere are stronger and more persistent during the negative TEs. Furthermore, the stronger and more persistent upward wave fluxes during the negative TEs are due to more favorable conditions for upward wave propagation, which is manifested by fewer occurrences of negative refractive index squared in the mid- to high-latitude troposphere and stronger wave intensity in the mid- to high-latitude troposphere. However, the tropospheric wave intensity plays a more important role than the tropospheric conditions of planetary wave propagation in modulating the upward wave fluxes into the stratosphere. Stronger and more persistent upward wave fluxes in the negative TEs, particularly wave-1 fluxes, are closely related to the negative geopotential height anomalies over the North Pacific and positive geopotential height anomalies over the Euro-Atlantic sectors. These negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies over the North Pacific (Euro-Atlantic) are related to the positive (negative) diabatic heating anomalies and the decreased (increased) blocking activities in the mid- to high latitudes. The subtropical diabatic heating could also impact the strength of the mid- to high-latitude geopotential height anomalies through modulating horizontal wave fluxes. For positive NAM events, the results are roughly similar to those for negative NAM events, but with opposite signal.