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• Premise of the study: Near-future climate changes are likely to elicit major vegetation changes. Disequilibrium dynamics, which occur when vegetation comes out of equilibrium with climate, are potentially a key facet of these. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for making accurate predictions, informing conservation planning, and understanding likely changes in ecosystem function on time scales relevant to society. However, many predictive studies have instead focused on equilibrium end-points with little consideration of the transient trajectories.• Methods: We review what we should expect in terms of disequilibrium vegetation dynamics over the next 50–200 yr, covering a broad range of research fields including paleoecology, macroecology, landscape ecology, vegetation science, plant ecology, invasion biology, global change biology, and ecosystem ecology.• Key results: The expected climate changes are likely to induce marked vegetation disequilibrium with climate at both leading and trailing edges, with leading-edge disequilibrium dynamics due to lags in migration at continental to landscape scales, in local population build-up and succession, in local evolutionary responses, and in ecosystem development, and trailing-edge disequilibrium dynamics involving delayed local extinctions and slow losses of ecosystem structural components. Interactions with habitat loss and invasive pests and pathogens are likely to further contribute to disequilibrium dynamics. Predictive modeling and climate-change experiments are increasingly representing disequilibrium dynamics, but with scope for improvement.• Conclusions: The likely pervasiveness and complexity of vegetation disequilibrium is a major challenge for forecasting ecological dynamics and, combined with the high ecological importance of vegetation, also constitutes a major challenge for future nature conservation.

A change in climate would be expected to shift plant distribution as species expand in newly favorable areas and decline in increasingly hostile locations. We compared surveys of plant cover that were made in 1977 and 2006-2007 along a 2,314-m elevation gradient in Southern California's Santa Rosa Mountains. Southern California's climate warmed at the surface, the precipitation variability increased, and the amount of snow decreased during the 30-year period preceding the second survey. We found that the average elevation of the dominant plant species rose by ≈65 m between the surveys. This shift cannot be attributed to changes in air pollution or fire frequency and appears to be a consequence of changes in regional climate.

Aim Alpine plant species’ distributions are thought to have been shifting to higher elevations in response to climate change. By moving upslope, species can occupy cooler and more suitable environments as climate change warms their current ranges. Despite evidence of upslope migration in the northern hemisphere, there is limited evidence for elevational shifts in southern hemisphere plants. Our study aimed to determine if alpine plants in Australia have migrated upslope in the last 2 to 6 decades. Location Kosciuszko National Park, NSW, Australia. Methods We collated historic occurrence data for 36 Australian alpine plant species from herbarium specimens and historic field observations and combined these historic data with modern occurrence data collected in the field. Results Eleven of the thirty‐six species had shifted upslope in mean elevation and four species showed downslope elevational shifts. The rate of change for upslope shifts varied between 4 and 10 m per year and the rate of change for most downslope shifts was between 4 and 8 m per year, with one species shifting downslope at a high rate of 18 m per year. Additionally, some species showed shifts upward in their upper range edge and/or upward or downward shifts in their lower range edge. Five species also showed range contractions in the difference between their lower and upper range edges over time, while two showed range expansions. We found no significant differences in elevational shifts through time among herbaceous dicotyledons, herbaceous monocotyledons and shrubs. Main Conclusions Plant elevational shifts are occurring rapidly in the Australian alpine zone. This may allow species to persist under climate change. However, if current warming trends continue, several species within the Australian alpine zone will likely run out of suitable habitat within a century.

Significance Climate change has the potential to reduce the supply of surface water by accelerating mountain vegetation growth and evapotranspiration (ET), though the likelihood and severity of this effect are poorly known. We used the upper Kings River basin in California’s Sierra Nevada as a case study of the sensitivity of runoff to increased ET with warming. We found that Kings River flow is highly sensitive to vegetation expansion; warming projected for 2100 could increase ET across the Kings River watershed by 28% and decrease riverflow by 26%. Moreover, we found a consistent relationship between watershed ET and temperature across the Sierra Nevada; this consistency implies a potential widespread reduction in water supply with warming, with important implications for California’s economy and environment. Climate change has the potential to reduce surface-water supply by expanding the activity, density, or coverage of upland vegetation, although the likelihood and severity of this effect are poorly known. We quantified the extent to which vegetation and evapotranspiration (ET) are presently cold-limited in California’s upper Kings River basin and used a space-for-time substitution to calculate the sensitivity of riverflow to vegetation expansion. We found that runoff is highly sensitive to vegetation migration; warming projected for 2100 could increase average basin-wide ET by 28% and decrease riverflow by 26%. Kings River basin ET currently peaks at midelevation and declines at higher elevation, creating a cold-limited zone above 2,400 m that is disproportionately important for runoff generation. Climate projections for 2085–2100 indicate as much as 4.1 °C warming in California’s Sierra Nevada, which would expand high rates of ET 700-m upslope if vegetation maintains its current correlation with temperature. Moreover, we observed that the relationship between basin-wide ET and temperature is similar across the entire western slope of California’s Sierra Nevada, implying that the risk of increasing montane ET with warming is widespread.

(Rosaceae) comprises more than 500 species with additional commercially cultivated raspberries and blackberries. The most recent (> 100 years old) global taxonomic treatment of the genus defined 12 subgenera; two subgenera were subsequently described and some species were rearranged. Intra- and interspecific ploidy levels and hybridization make phylogenetic estimation of challenging. Our objectives were to estimate the phylogeny of 94 taxonomically and geographically diverse species and three cultivars using chloroplast DNA sequences and target capture of approximately 1,000 low copy nuclear genes; estimate divergence times between major clades; and examine the historical biogeography of species diversification. Target capture sequencing identified eight major groups within . Subgenus and Subg. were monophyletic, while other recognized subgenera were para- or polyphyletic. Multiple hybridization events likely occurred across the phylogeny at subgeneric levels, e.g., Subg. (blackberries) × Subg. (raspberries) and Subg. × Subg. (Arctic berries) hybrids. The raspberry heritage within known cultivated blackberry hybrids was confirmed. The most recent common ancestor of the genus was most likely distributed in North America. Multiple distribution events occurred during the Miocene (about 20 Ma) from North America into Asia and Europe across the Bering land bridge and southward crossing the Panamanian Isthmus. species diversified greatly in Asia during the Miocene. taxonomy does not reflect phylogenetic relationships and subgeneric revision is warranted. The most recent common ancestor migrated from North America towards Asia, Europe, and Central and South America early in the Miocene then diversified. Ancestors of the genus may have migrated to Oceania by long distance bird dispersal. This phylogeny presents a roadmap for further systematics research. In conclusion, the target capture dataset provides high resolution between species though it also gave evidence of gene tree/species tree and cytonuclear discordance. Discordance may be due to hybridization or incomplete lineage sorting, rather than a lack of phylogenetic signal. This study illustrates the importance of using multiple phylogenetic methods when examining complex groups and the utility of software programs that estimate signal conflict within datasets.

Tree range shifts during geohistorical global change events provide a useful real-world model for how future changes in forest biomes may proceed. In North America, during the last deglaciation, the distributions of tree taxa varied significantly as regards the rate and direction of their responses for reasons that remain unclear. Local-scale processes such as establishment, growth, and resilience to environmental stress ultimately influence range dynamics. Despite the fact that interactions between trees and soil biota are known to influence local-scale processes profoundly, evidence linking below-ground interactions to distribution dynamics remains scarce. We evaluated climate velocity and plant traits related to dispersal, environmental tolerance and below-ground symbioses, as potential predictors of the geohistorical rates of expansion and contraction of the core distributions of tree genera between 16 and 7 ka BP. The receptivity of host genera towards ectomycorrhizal fungi was strongly supported as a positive predictor of poleward rates of distribution expansion, and seed mass was supported as a negative predictor. Climate velocity gained support as a positive predictor of rates of distribution contraction, but not expansion. Our findings indicate that understanding how tree distributions, and thus forest ecosystems, respond to climate change requires the simultaneous consideration of traits, biotic interactions and abiotic forcing.

In his or her Perspective, Blumenthal discusses how plants from high- resource habitats are often poorly defended, nutritious, and strongly regulated by enemies. Consequently, these species may benefit the most by entering new habits to escape their natural enemies. This hypothesis predicts that high- resource invasive species may be particularly susceptible to biological control and that increases in resource availability will favor exotic plants.

Aim Forest herbs might be unable to track shifts in habitat suitability due to rapid climate change and habitat fragmentation. In this study, we quantified the role of dispersal limitation and the potential mitigating effect of large‐scale reforestation on the redistribution of the herbaceous forest plant species Primula elatior under climate change. Location Europe. Methods High resolution (100 m) landscape‐scale and macro‐climatic variables were combined to predict range‐wide habitat suitability using Maxent. Dispersal limitation was modelled, based on isolation‐by‐resistance (IBR) principles through integration of circuit theory and genomic data, to assess patch accessibility and metapopulation stability under climate change. Large‐scale reforestation was evaluated as a potential mitigating strategy by incorporating a land use change scenario into the distribution and dispersal models. Results Landscape‐scale variables contributed significantly to the distribution of P. elatior (78.33%) and to the accuracy of our model (AUC = 0.81). Isolation‐by‐resistance (R2cond = .92) was driven by land use (45.5%), distance from rivers (36.4%) and elevation (18.2%). It was estimated that 46.4 ± 13.9% (mean ± SD of climate change scenarios) of the total distribution area would be lost due to climate change by 2050 and an additional 15.6 ± 1.7% (mean ± SD) of the distribution would not be accessible through migration. The median latitude of the patch distribution shifted 183.2 ± 34.8 km (mean ± SD) northwards and 58.1 ± 9.3 km (mean ± SD) to more maritime regions. The patch accessibility was low in these regions and the metapopulation stability decreased considerably in the south of the distribution. Reforestation mitigated 54.1 ± 18.2% (mean ± SD) of the accessible distribution area loss and 49.5 ± 4.2% (mean ± SD) of the decrease in metapopulation stability. Main conclusion To alleviate the loss of the accessible distribution area of P. elatior under climate change, it will be required to integrate climate mitigation strategies (RCP 2.6), range‐wide afforestation, restoration of ecological connectivity and focused assisted migration to newly available habitat.

Questions Are recent hedgerows less rich in forest vascular plants than ancient hedgerows? Does the proximity to potential source populations influence the forest species richness in recent hedgerows? Is there a difference in the dispersal potential of forest specialists found in recent and ancient hedgerows? How similar is the species composition between hedgerows of different ages? Location Southeastern Schleswig‐Holstein, Northern Germany. Methods We investigated 30 hedgerows in a pairwise design to compare the species composition of ancient and recent hedgerows. Results While recent hedgerows already function as habitats for herbaceous forest specialists, they contain significantly fewer forest species than ancient hedgerows. Besides hedgerow age proximity to ancient forests, a wide shrub layer, high pH values and a low phosphorus content are also positively associated with the number of forest specialists. The similarity in species composition between recent and ancient hedgerows increases with the age of the recent hedgerow. Epizoochorous dispersal and reproduction by seed favour the colonisation of recent hedgerows by forest species. Most environmental and hedgerow structural parameters do not differ between the age categories except for pH, which is significantly higher in recent hedgerows. Conclusions Ancient hedgerows are important for regional biodiversity, especially as source populations for recent hedgerows, and therefore need to be protected. If the recent hedgerows are managed traditionally, they can over time transform into valuable habitats similar to ancient hedgerows. We compared pairs of ancient and recent hedgerows to investigate the influence of hedgerow age on species composition. While recent hedgerows already function as habitats for herbaceous forest specialists, they contain significantly fewer forest species than ancient hedgerows. But if the recent hedgerows are managed traditionally, over time they can transform into valuable habitats similar to ancient hedgerows.