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The concentration of police resources in stable crime hotspots has proven effective in reducing crime, but the extent to which police can disrupt dynamically changing crime hotspots is unknown. Police must be able to anticipate the future location of dynamic hotspots to disrupt them. Here we report results of two randomized controlled trials of near real-time epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) crime forecasting, one trial within three divisions of the Los Angeles Police Department and the other trial within two divisions of the Kent Police Department (United Kingdom). We investigate the extent to which (i) ETAS models of short-term crime risk outperform existing best practice of hotspot maps produced by dedicated crime analysts, (ii) police officers in the field can dynamically patrol predicted hotspots given limited resources, and (iii) crime can be reduced by predictive policing algorithms under realistic law enforcement resource constraints. While previous hotspot policing experiments fix treatment and control hotspots throughout the experimental period, we use a novel experimental design to allow treatment and control hotspots to change dynamically over the course of the experiment. Our results show that ETAS models predict 1.4–2.2 times as much crime compared to a dedicated crime analyst using existing criminal intelligence and hotspot mapping practice. Police patrols using ETAS forecasts led to an average 7.4% reduction in crime volume as a function of patrol time, whereas patrols based upon analyst predictions showed no significant effect. Dynamic police patrol in response to ETAS crime forecasts can disrupt opportunities for crime and lead to real crime reductions.

Objectives To examine the impacts of broken windows policing at crime hot spots on fear of crime, ratings of police legitimacy and reports of collective efficacy among residents of targeted hot spots. Methods A block randomized experimental design with a police intervention targeting disorder delivered to 55 treatment street segments with an equal number of segments serving as controls. Main outcomes were measured using a panel survey of 371 persons living or working in these sites. Results The broken windows police intervention delivered to crime hot spots in this study had no significant impacts on fear of crime, police legitimacy, collective efficacy, or perceptions of crime or social disorder. Perceptions of physical disorder appear to have been modestly increased in the target areas. Conclusions The findings suggest that recent criticisms of hot spots policing approaches which focus on possible negative “backfire” effects for residents of the targeted areas may be overstated. The study shows that residents are not aware of, or much affected by, a three hour per week dosage of aggressive order maintenance policing on their blocks (in addition to routine police responses in these areas). Future research needs to replicate these findings focusing on varied target populations and types of crime hot spots, and examining different styles of hot spots policing.

Background Although naloxone is widely acknowledged as a life-saving intervention and a critical tool for first responders, there remains a need to explore how law enforcement officers have adapted to a shifting scope of work. Past research has focused mainly on officer training, their abilities to administer naloxone, and to a lesser extent on their experiences and interactions working with people who use drugs (PWUD). Methods A qualitative approach was used to explore officer perspectives and behaviors surrounding responses to incidents of suspected opioid overdose. Between the months of March and September 2017, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 38 officers from 17 counties across New York state (NYS). Results Analysis of in-depth interviews revealed that officers generally considered the additional responsibility of administering naloxone to have become “part of the job”. Many officers reported feeling as though they are expected to wear multiple hats, functioning as both law enforcement and medical personnel and at times juggling contradictory roles. Evolving views on drugs and drug use defined many interviews, as well as the recognition that a punitive approach to working with PWUD is not the solution, emphasizing the need for cohesive, community-wide support strategies. Notable differences in attitudes toward PWUD appeared to be influenced by an officer’s connection to someone who uses drugs and/or due to a background in emergency medical services. Conclusion Law enforcement officers in NYS are emerging as an integral part of the continuum of care for PWUD. Our findings are capturing a time of transition as more traditional approaches to law enforcement appear to be shifting toward those prioritizing prevention and diversion. Widespread adoption of naloxone administration by law enforcement officers in NYS is a powerful example of the successful integration of a public health intervention into police work.

Objectives To evaluate the impact of proactive police response on residential burglary and theft from vehicle in micro-time hot spots as well as whether spatial displacement occurs. Methods Over 2 years, 114 treatment and 103 control micro-time hot spots were assigned to groups using “trickle-flow” randomization. Responses were implemented as part of the police department’s established practices, and micro-time hot spots were blocked based on their temporal proximity—sprees or ongoing. The study was blinded and tested proactive patrol versus a no-dosage control condition. Results The department responded to each micro-time hot spot with, on average, five 20-min responses per day for 19 days. Eighty percent of the response time involved conducting directed patrol without encountering suspicious activity. Results show that treatment micro-time hot spots had significantly fewer crimes after 15 days (79%) and 30 days (74%). Treatment effects were greatest in the first 15 days (1.15) followed by days 16–30 (.83). Conclusions The study examines a real-world strategy institutionalized into the day-today operations of a police department. The largest impact on crime was seen during response. In addition, crime reductions that occurred while micro-time hot spots received response held for 2 months after the responses end with no evidence of spatial displacement. Our findings reveal larger effect sizes than most hot spots policing studies which may be due to how the unit of analysis was defined, the systematic nature of the response implementation, and the use of a no-dosage, blind control condition.