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"Population Control"
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The effects of China's universal two-child policy
In October, 2015, China's one-child policy was replaced by a universal two-child policy. The effects of the new policy are inevitably speculative, but predictions can be made based on recent trends. The population increase will be relatively small, peaking at 1·45 billion in 2029 (compared with a peak of 1·4 billion in 2023 if the one-child policy continued). The new policy will allow almost all Chinese people to have their preferred number of children. The benefits of the new policy include: a large reduction in abortions of unapproved pregnancies, virtual elimination of the problem of unregistered children, and a more normal sex ratio. All of these effects should improve health outcomes. Effects of the new policy on the shrinking workforce and rapid population ageing will not be evident for two decades. In the meantime, more sound policy actions are needed to meet the social, health, and care needs of the elderly population.
Journal Article
Assessing the impact of the “one-child policy” in China: A synthetic control approach
There is great debate surrounding the demographic impact of China's population control policies, especially the one-birth restrictions, which ended only recently. We apply an objective, data-driven method to construct the total fertility rates and population size of a 'synthetic China', which is assumed to be not subjected to the two major population control policies implemented in the 1970s. We find that while the earlier, less restrictive 'later-longer-fewer' policy introduced in 1973 played a critical role in driving down the fertility rate, the role of the 'one-child policy' introduced in 1979 and its descendants was much less significant. According to our model, had China continued with the less restrictive policies that were implemented in 1973 and followed a standard development trajectory, the path of fertility transition and total population growth would have been statistically very similar to the pattern observed over the past three decades.
Journal Article
Transforming insect population control with precision guided sterile males with demonstration in flies
The sterile insect technique (SIT) is an environmentally safe and proven technology to suppress wild populations. To further advance its utility, a novel CRISPR-based technology termed precision guided SIT (pgSIT) is described. PgSIT mechanistically relies on a dominant genetic technology that enables simultaneous sexing and sterilization, facilitating the release of eggs into the environment ensuring only sterile adult males emerge. Importantly, for field applications, the release of eggs will eliminate burdens of manually sexing and sterilizing males, thereby reducing overall effort and increasing scalability. Here, to demonstrate efficacy, we systematically engineer multiple pgSIT systems in
Drosophila
which consistently give rise to 100% sterile males. Importantly, we demonstrate that pgSIT-generated sterile males are fit and competitive. Using mathematical models, we predict pgSIT will induce substantially greater population suppression than can be achieved by currently-available self-limiting suppression technologies. Taken together, pgSIT offers to potentially transform our ability to control insect agricultural pests and disease vectors.
Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) is used to suppress wild populations. Here the authors integrate CRISPR-based technology and SIT to develop a precision guided SIT (pgSIT), and demonstrate its proof-of-principle by generating 100% sterile males.
Journal Article
Population Control Policies and Fertility Convergence
Rapid population growth in developing countries in the middle of the 20th century led to fears of a population explosion and motivated the inception of what effectively became a global population-control program. The initiative, propelled in its beginnings by intellectual elites in the United States, Sweden, and some developing countries, mobilized resources to enact policies aimed at reducing fertility by widening contraception provision and changing family-size norms. In the following five decades, fertility rates fell dramatically, with a majority of countries converging to a fertility rate just above two children per woman, despite large cross-country differences in economic variables such as GDP per capita, education levels, urbanization, and female labor force participation. The fast decline in fertility rates in developing economies stands in sharp contrast with the gradual decline experienced earlier by more mature economies. In this paper, we argue that population-control policies likely played a central role in the global decline in fertility rates in recent decades and can explain some patterns of that fertility decline that are not well accounted for by other socioeconomic factors.
Journal Article
Optimizing dog population control strategies in Thailand using mathematical and economic modeling
A mathematical model was constructed to investigate dog population dynamics and explore the impact of population management and rabies prevention. We aimed to evaluate cost-effective sterilization and vaccination strategies for dog population control and rabies prevention in Thailand. The developed compartmental model was calibrated with dog population data from Lopburi province (between 2019 and 2022) and simulated five sterilization scenarios. These measures included a combined 80% coverage of the rabies vaccine and 20% coverage of a sterilization program among non-specific dog types. Our findings indicated that sterilization programs targeting female indoor, outdoor, and stray dogs may prove to be the most effective in reducing the total dog population above 50% over a five-year period, surpassing the efficacy of the current intervention. Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that the two female dog sterilization strategies were cost-saving compared to the current practice, as the total costs of sterilization and vaccination decreased over time due to the reduction in the dog population. In conclusion, targeting female dog sterilization could reduce the population and was cost-saving compared to current strategies. Further data to inform dog population demographic and available resources including manpower, rabies vaccine, sterilization toolkits, and related materials will be required to fully explore intervention accessibility and feasibility within the context of rabies prevention and control in Thailand.
Journal Article
Peritoneal mesothelioma and asbestos exposure: a population-based case–control study in Lombardy, Italy
ObjectivesAsbestos is the main risk factor for peritoneal mesothelioma (PeM). However, due to its rarity, PeM has rarely been investigated in community-based studies. We examined the association between asbestos exposure and PeM risk in a general population in Lombardy, Italy.MethodsFrom the regional mesothelioma registry, we selected PeM cases diagnosed in 2000–2015. Population controls (matched by area, gender and age) came from two case–control studies in Lombardy on lung cancer (2002–2004) and pleural mesothelioma (2014). Assessment of exposure to asbestos was performed through a quantitative job-exposure matrix (SYN-JEM) and expert evaluation based on a standardised questionnaire. We calculated period-specific and gender-specific OR and 90% CI using conditional logistic regression adjusted for age, province of residence and education.ResultsWe selected 68 cases and 2116 controls (2000–2007) and 159 cases and 205 controls (2008–2015). The ORs for ever asbestos exposure (expert-based, 2008–2015 only) were 5.78 (90% CI 3.03 to 11.0) in men and 8.00 (2.56 to 25.0) in women; the ORs for definite occupational exposure were 12.3 (5.62 to 26.7) in men and 14.3 (3.16 to 65.0) in women. The ORs for ever versus never occupational asbestos exposure based on SYN-JEM (both periods) were 2.05 (90% CI 1.39 to 3.01) in men and 1.62 (0.79 to 3.27) in women. In men, clear positive associations were found for duration, cumulative exposure (OR 1.33 (1.19 to 1.48) per fibres/mL-years) and latency.ConclusionsUsing two different methods of exposure assessment we provided evidence of a clear association between asbestos exposure and PeM risk in the general population.
Journal Article
Durable contraception in the female domestic cat using viral-vectored delivery of a feline anti-Müllerian hormone transgene
Eighty percent of the estimated 600 million domestic cats in the world are free-roaming. These cats typically experience suboptimal welfare and inflict high levels of predation on wildlife. Additionally, euthanasia of healthy animals in overpopulated shelters raises ethical considerations. While surgical sterilization is the mainstay of pet population control, there is a need for efficient, safe, and cost-effective permanent contraception alternatives. Herein, we report evidence that a single intramuscular treatment with an adeno-associated viral vector delivering an anti-Müllerian hormone transgene produces long-term contraception in the domestic cat. Treated females are followed for over two years, during which transgene expression, anti-transgene antibodies, and reproductive hormones are monitored. Mating behavior and reproductive success are measured during two mating studies. Here we show that ectopic expression of anti-Müllerian hormone does not impair sex steroids nor estrous cycling, but prevents breeding-induced ovulation, resulting in safe and durable contraception in the female domestic cat.
This study demonstrates the safety and long-term efficacy of a single-dose, injectable contraceptive in female domestic cats. Treated females remained contracepted for over two years, and did not ovulate or produce kittens when paired with males.
Journal Article
Patients admitted to treatment for substance use disorder in Norway: a population-based case–control study of socio-demographic correlates and comparative analyses across substance use disorders
Background
Improved knowledge regarding socio-demographic correlates of people with substance use disorders (SUDs) is essential to better plan and provide adequate services for SUD patients and their families, and to improve our understanding of the complex mechanisms underlying progression into and development of various SUDs. This study aimed to: i) describe demographic, economic, and social correlates of people with SUDs in comparison with those of the general population and ii) compare these correlates across SUDs from licit versus illicit substances, as well as across specific SUDs.
Methods
A national population-based case–control study included
all
SUD patients enrolled in specialized drug treatment in Norway in 2009–2010 (
N
= 31 245) and a population control sample, frequency-matched on age and gender (
N
= 31 275). Data on education level, labour market participation, income level and sources, and family/living arrangement were obtained by linkages to national registers.
Results
Demographic, economic, and social correlates of SUD patients differed substantially from those of the general population, and across specific SUDs. Among SUD patients, those with illicit – as compared to licit – SUDs were younger (mean quotient = 0.72 [0.71–0.72]), more often had low education level (RR = 1.68 [1.63–1.73]), were less often in paid work (RR = 0.74 [0.72–0.76]) and had lower income (mean quotient = 0.61 [0.60–0.62]). Comparison of patients with different SUD diagnoses revealed substantial demographic differences, including the relatively low mean age among cannabis patients and the high share of females among sedatives/hypnotics patients. Opioid patients stood out by being older, and more often out of work, receiving social security benefits, and living alone. Cocaine and alcohol patients were more often better educated, included in the work force, and had a better financial situation.
Conclusion
Findings revealed substantial and important differences in socio-demographic correlates between SUD patients and the general population, between SUD patients with illicit and with licit substance use, and across specific SUD patient groups.
Journal Article