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Suppressing infections of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) will probably require the rapid identification and isolation of individuals infected with the virus on an ongoing basis. Reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT–PCR) tests are accurate but costly, which makes the regular testing of every individual expensive. These costs are a challenge for all countries around the world, but particularly for low-to-middle-income countries. Cost reductions can be achieved by pooling (or combining) subsamples and testing them in groups 1 – 7 . A balance must be struck between increasing the group size and retaining test sensitivity, as sample dilution increases the likelihood of false-negative test results for individuals with a low viral load in the sampled region at the time of the test 8 . Similarly, minimizing the number of tests to reduce costs must be balanced against minimizing the time that testing takes, to reduce the spread of the infection. Here we propose an algorithm for pooling subsamples based on the geometry of a hypercube that, at low prevalence, accurately identifies individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 in a small number of tests and few rounds of testing. We discuss the optimal group size and explain why, given the highly infectious nature of the disease, largely parallel searches are preferred. We report proof-of-concept experiments in which a positive subsample was detected even when diluted 100-fold with negative subsamples (compared with 30–48-fold dilutions described in previous studies 9 – 11 ). We quantify the loss of sensitivity due to dilution and discuss how it may be mitigated by the frequent re-testing of groups, for example. With the use of these methods, the cost of mass testing could be reduced by a large factor. At low prevalence, the costs decrease in rough proportion to the prevalence. Field trials of our approach are under way in Rwanda and South Africa. The use of group testing on a massive scale to monitor infection rates closely and continually in a population, along with the rapid and effective isolation of people with SARS-CoV-2 infections, provides a promising pathway towards the long-term control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A mathematical algorithm for population-wide screening of SARS-CoV-2 infections using pooled parallel RT–PCR tests requires considerably fewer tests than individual testing procedures and has minimal delays in the identification of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2.

ObjectiveThe English Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (BCSP) recommends 3 yearly colonoscopy surveillance for patients at intermediate risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) postpolypectomy (those with three to four small adenomas or one ≥10 mm). We investigated whether faecal immunochemical tests (FITs) could reduce surveillance burden on patients and endoscopy services.DesignIntermediate-risk patients (60–72 years) recommended 3 yearly surveillance were recruited within the BCSP (January 2012–December 2013). FITs were offered at 1, 2 and 3 years postpolypectomy. Invitees consenting and returning a year 1 FIT were included. Participants testing positive (haemoglobin ≥40 µg/g) at years one or two were offered colonoscopy early; all others were offered colonoscopy at 3 years. Diagnostic accuracy for CRC and advanced adenomas (AAs) was estimated considering multiple tests and thresholds. We calculated incremental costs per additional AA and CRC detected by colonoscopy versus FIT surveillance.Results74% (5938/8009) of invitees were included in our study having participated at year 1. Of these, 97% returned FITs at years 2 and 3. Three-year cumulative positivity was 13% at the 40 µg/g haemoglobin threshold and 29% at 10 µg/g. 29 participants were diagnosed with CRC and 446 with AAs. Three-year programme sensitivities for CRC and AAs were, respectively, 59% and 33% at 40 µg/g, and 72% and 57% at 10 µg/g. Incremental costs per additional AA and CRC detected by colonoscopy versus FIT (40 µg/g) surveillance were £7354 and £180 778, respectively.ConclusionsReplacing 3 yearly colonoscopy surveillance in intermediate-risk patients with annual FIT could reduce colonoscopies by 71%, significantly cut costs but could miss 30%–40% of CRCs and 40%–70% of AAs.Trial registration number ISRCTN18040196; Results.

ObjectivesTo describe a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of digital breast tomosynthesis including synthesized two-dimensional mammograms (DBT) versus digital mammography (DM) in a population-based screening program for breast cancer and to compare selected secondary screening outcomes for the two techniques.MethodsThis RCT, performed in Bergen as part of BreastScreen Norway, was approved by the Regional Committees for Medical Health Research Ethics. All screening attendees in Bergen were invited to participate, of which 89% (14,274/15,976) concented during the first year, and were randomized to DBT (n = 7155) or DM (n = 7119). Secondary screening outcomes were stratified by mammographic density and compared using two-sample t-tests, chi-square tests, ANOVA, negative binomial regression and tests of proportions (z tests).ResultsMean reading time was 1 min 11 s for DBT and 41 s for DM (p < 0.01). Mean time spent at consensus was 3 min 12 s for DBT and 2 min 12 s for DM (p < 0.01), while the rate of cases discussed at consensus was 6.4% and 7.4%, respectively for DBT and DM (p = 0.03). The recall rate was 3.0% for DBT and 3.6% for DM (p = 0.03). For women with non-dense breasts, recall rate was 2.2% for DBT versus 3.4% for DM (p = 0.04). The rate did not differ for women with dense breasts (3.6% for both). Mean glandular dose per examination was 2.96 mGy for DBT and 2.95 mGy for DM (p = 0.433).ConclusionsInterim analysis of a screening RCT showed that DBT took longer to read than DM, but had significantly lower recall rate than DM. We found no differences in radiation dose between the two techniques.Key Points• In this RCT, DBT was associated with longer interpretation time than DM• Recall rates were lower for DBT than for DM• Mean glandular radiation dose did not differ between DBT and DM

Background HIV risk remains unacceptably high among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in southern and eastern Africa, reflecting structural and social inequities that drive new infections. In 2015, PEPFAR (the United States President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief) with private-sector partners launched the DREAMS Partnership, an ambitious package of interventions in 10 sub-Saharan African countries. DREAMS aims to reduce HIV incidence by 40% among AGYW over two years by addressing multiple causes of AGYW vulnerability. This protocol outlines an impact evaluation of DREAMS in four settings. Methods To achieve an impact evaluation that is credible and timely, we describe a mix of methods that build on longitudinal data available in existing surveillance sites prior to DREAMS roll-out. In three long-running surveillance sites (in rural and urban Kenya and rural South Africa), the evaluation will measure: (1) population-level changes over time in HIV incidence and socio-economic, behavioural and health outcomes among AGYW and young men (before, during, after DREAMS); and (2) causal pathways linking uptake of DREAMS interventions to ‘mediators’ of change such as empowerment, through to behavioural and health outcomes, using nested cohort studies with samples of ~ 1000–1500 AGYW selected randomly from the general population and followed for two years. In Zimbabwe, where DREAMS includes an offer of pre-exposure HIV prophylaxis (PrEP), cohorts of young women who sell sex will be followed for two years to measure the impact of ‘DREAMS+PrEP’ on HIV incidence among young women at highest risk of HIV. In all four settings, process evaluation and qualitative studies will monitor the delivery and context of DREAMS implementation. The primary evaluation outcome is HIV incidence, and secondary outcomes include indicators of sexual behavior change, and social and biological protection. Discussion DREAMS is, to date, the most ambitious effort to scale-up combinations or ‘packages’ of multi-sectoral interventions for HIV prevention. Evidence of its effectiveness in reducing HIV incidence among AGYW, and demonstrating which aspects of the lives of AGYW were changed, will offer valuable lessons for replication.

In ulcerative colitis surveillance, chromoendoscopy improves dysplasia detection 3 – 5-fold compared with white light endoscopy (WLE). The aim of this study was to investigate whether narrow band imaging (NBI) can improve dysplasia detection compared with WLE. This was a randomized, parallel-group trial. A total of 220 patients were needed to be recruited to detect a threefold increase in dysplasia detection. In all, 112 patients with long-standing ulcerative colitis were randomized to colonoscopic extubation with NBI (56) or WLE (56) (1:1 ratio) at two tertiary endoscopy units in the United Kingdom. Targeted biopsies of suspicious areas and quadrantic random biopsies every 10 cm were taken in both groups. The primary outcome measure was the proportion of patients with at least one area of dysplasia detected. In a prespecified mid-point analysis, the criteria for trial discontinuation were met and the trial was stopped and analyzed at this point. There was no difference in the primary outcome between the two groups, with 5 patients having at least one dysplastic lesion in each group (odds ratio (OR) 1.00, 95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) 0.27 – 3.67, P = 1.00). This remained unchanged when adjusted for other variables (OR 0.69, 95 % CI 0.16 – 2.96, P = 0.62). Overall, dysplasia detection was 9 % in each arm. Yield of dysplasia from random nontargeted biopsies was 1 / 2,707 (0.04 % ). Overall, in this multicenter parallel-group trial, there was no difference in dysplasia detection when using NBI compared with high-definition WLE colonoscopy. Random background biopsies were ineffective in detecting dysplasia.

Background: Urothelial bladder cancer (UBC) is characterised by a high risk of recurrence. Patient monitoring is currently based on iterative cystoscopy and on urine cytology with low sensitivity in non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). Telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) is frequently reactivated in UBC by promoter mutations. Methods: We studied whether detection of TERT mutation in urine could be a predictor of UBC recurrence and compared this to cytology/cystoscopy for patient follow-up. A total of 348 patients treated by transurethral bladder resection for UBC were included together with 167 control patients. Results: Overall sensitivity was 80.5% and specificity 89.8%, and was not greatly impacted by inflammation or infection. TERT remaining positive after initial surgery was associated with residual carcinoma in situ . TERT in urine was a reliable and dynamic predictor of recurrence in NMIBC ( P <0.0001). In univariate analysis, TERT positive-status after initial surgery increased risk of recurrence by 5.34-fold ( P =0.0004). TERT positive-status was still associated with recurrence in the subset of patients with negative cystoscopy ( P =0.034). Conclusions: TERT mutations in urine might be helpful for early detection of recurrence in UBC, especially in NMIBC.

Childhood maltreatment and depressive disorders have both been associated with a dysregulation of the hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal axis. The FKBP5 gene codes for a co-chaperone regulating the glucocorticoid-receptor sensitivity. Previous evidence suggests that subjects carrying the TT genotype of the FKBP5 gene single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs1360780 have an increased susceptibility to adverse effects of experimental stress. We therefore tested the hypothesis of an interaction of childhood abuse with rs1360780 in predicting adult depression. In all, 2157 Caucasian subjects from the Study of Health in Pomerania (German general population) completed the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II) and Childhood Trauma Questionnaire. The DSM-IV diagnosis of major depressive disorder (MDD) was assessed by interview. Genotypes of rs1360780 were taken from the Affymetrix Human SNP Array 6.0. Significant interaction ( p =0.006) of physical abuse with the TT genotype of rs1360780 was found increasing the BDI-II score to 17.4 (95% confidence interval (CI)=12.0–22.9) compared with 10.0 (8.2–11.7) in exposed CC/CT carriers. Likewise, the adjusted odds ratio for MDD in exposed TT carriers was 8.2 (95% CI=1.9–35.0) compared with 1.3 (0.8–2.3) in exposed subjects with CC/CT genotypes. Relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) analyses confirmed a significant additive interaction effect (RERI=6.8; 95% CI=0.64–33.7; p <0.05). In explorative analyses, the most severe degree of sexual and emotional abuse also yielded significant interaction effects ( p <0.05). This study revealed interactions between physical abuse and rs1360780 of the FKBP5 gene, confirming its role in the individual susceptibility to depression. Given the large effect sizes, rs1360780 could be included into prediction models for depression in individuals exposed to childhood abuse.

ObjectiveCap-assisted colonoscopy (CAC) uses a small plastic transparent cap attached to the tip of the colonoscope that can depress and flatten colonic folds and thus improve visualisation of their proximal aspects. The aim of this study was to compare CAC with standard colonoscopy (SC; high-definition white light) for adenoma detection rates.DesignThis is a prospective randomised controlled trial.SettingThe study was performed in a tertiary-care Veterans Affairs Medical Center in the USA.PatientsSubjects undergoing screening or surveillance colonoscopy were enrolled.InterventionsSubjects were randomised to undergo either CAC or SC.Main outcome measuresThe outcome measures were the proportion of subjects with at least one adenoma, the number of adenomas detected per subject, insertion time, caecal intubation rates and complications.Results420 subjects were enrolled and included in the study (210 in each group). The proportion of subjects with at least one adenoma was higher with CAC compared to SC (69% vs 56%, p=0.009). CAC also detected a higher number of adenomas per subject (2.3 vs 1.4, p<0.001). The caecal intubation time was shorter with CAC (3.29 min vs 3.98 min, p<0.001). The caecal intubation rates were similar in the two groups (99% vs 98%, p=0.37). There were no complications associated with CAC or SC.ConclusionsCAC detected a 13% higher number of subjects with at least one adenoma and 59% higher adenomas per subject. CAC is a safe, effective and practical means to improve adenoma detection rates.Clinical Trial RegistrationNCT 01211132.

Dengue remains a major public threat and existing dengue control/surveillance programs lack sensitivity and proactivity. More efficient methods are needed. A cluster randomized controlled trial was conducted for 18 months to determine the efficacy of using a combination of gravid oviposition sticky (GOS) traps and dengue non-structural 1 (NS1) antigen for early surveillance of dengue among Aedes mosquito. Eight residential apartments were randomly assigned into intervention and control groups. GOS traps were placed at the intervention apartments weekly to trap Aedes mosquitoes and these tested for dengue NS1 antigen. When dengue-positive pool was detected, the community were notified and advised to execute protective measures. Fewer dengue cases were recorded in the intervention group than the control. Detection of NS1-positive mosquitoes was significantly associated with GOS Aedes index (r s  = 0.68, P < 0.01) and occurrence of dengue cases (r s  = 0.31, P < 0.01). Participants’ knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) toward dengue control indicated significant improvement for knowledge (P < 0.01), practice (P < 0.01) and total scores (P < 0.01). Most respondents thought this surveillance method is good (81.2%) and supported its use nationwide. Thus, GOS trap and dengue NS1 antigen test can supplement the current dengue surveillance/control, in alignment with the advocated integrated vector management for reducing Aedes -borne diseases.

The role of exposure to substances in the workplace in new-onset asthma is not well characterised in population-based studies. We therefore aimed to estimate the relative and attributable risks of new-onset asthma in relation to occupations, work-related exposures, and inhalation accidents. We studied prospectively 6837 participants from 13 countries who previously took part in the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (1990–95) and did not report respiratory symptoms or a history of asthma at the time of the first study. Asthma was assessed by methacholine challenge test and by questionnaire data on asthma symptoms. Exposures were defined by high-risk occupations, an asthma-specific job exposure matrix with additional expert judgment, and through self-report of acute inhalation events. Relative risks for new onset asthma were calculated with log-binomial models adjusted for age, sex, smoking, and study centre. A significant excess asthma risk was seen after exposure to substances known to cause occupational asthma (Relative risk=1·6, 95% CI 1·1–2·3, p=0·017). Risks were highest for asthma defined by bronchial hyper-reactivity in addition to symptoms (2·4, 1·3–4·6, p=0·008). Of common occupations, a significant excess risk of asthma was seen for nursing (2·2, 1·3–4·0, p=0·007). Asthma risk was also increased in participants who reported an acute symptomatic inhalation event such as fire, mixing cleaning products, or chemical spills (RR=3·3, 95% CI 1·0–11·1, p=0·051). The population-attributable risk for adult asthma due to occupational exposures ranged from 10% to 25%, equivalent to an incidence of new-onset occupational asthma of 250–300 cases per million people per year. Occupational exposures account for a substantial proportion of adult asthma incidence. The increased risk of asthma after inhalation accidents suggests that workers who have such accidents should be monitored closely.