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Population aging : is Latin America ready?
The past half-century has seen enormous changes in the demographic makeup of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). In the 1950s, LAC had a small population of about 160 million people, less than today's population of Brazil. Two-thirds of Latin Americans lived in rural areas. Families were large and women had one of the highest fertility rates in the world, low levels of education, and few opportunities for work outside the household. Investments in health and education reached only a small fraction of the children, many of whom died before reaching age five. Since then, the size of the LAC population has tripled and the mostly rural population has been transformed into a largely urban population. There have been steep reductions in child mortality, and investments in health and education have increased, today reaching a majority of children. Fertility has been more than halved and the opportunities for women in education and for work outside the household have improved significantly. Life expectancy has grown by 22 years. Less obvious to the casual observer, but of significance for policy makers, a population with a large fraction of dependent children has evolved into a population with fewer dependents and a very large proportion of working-age adults. This overview seeks to introduce the reader to three groups of issues related to population aging in LAC. First is a group of issues related to the support of the aging and poverty in the life cycle. Second is the question of the health transition. Third is an understanding of the fiscal pressures that are likely to accompany population aging and to disentangle the role of demography from the role of policy in that process.
eBook
Twenty years of China's ageing society : achievements, challenges, and prospects
An in-depth study of the ageing problem in China from a multidisciplinary perspective. It summarizes the development process, achievements and challenges of China from the year 2000 to 2020, and illustrates the exploration process of the theory and practice to actively address population ageing with Chinese characteristics.
BOOK
Exploring the spatial-temporal distribution and evolution of population aging and social-economic indicators in China
Background
China is one of the world’s fastest-aging countries. Population aging and social-economic development show close relations. This study aims to illustrate the spatial-temporal distribution and movement of gravity centers of population aging and social-economic factors and thier spatial interaction across the provinces in China.
Methods
Factors of elderly population rate (EPR), elderly dependency ratio (EDR), per capita gross regional product (GRP
pc
), and urban population rate (UPR) were collected. Distribution patterns were detected by using global spatial autocorrelation, Kernel density estimation, and coefficient of variation. Further, Arc GIS software was used to find the gravity centers and their movement trends yearly from 2002 to 2018. The spatial interaction between the variables was investigated based on bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis.
Results
The results showed a larger variety of global spatial autocorrelation indexed by Moran’s
I
and stable trends of dispersion degree without obvious convergence in EPR and EDR. Furthermore, the gravity centers of the proportion of EPR and EDR moved northeastward. In contrast, the economic and urbanization factors showed a southwestward movement, which exhibited an reverse trend compared to population aging indicators. Moreover, the movement rates of EPR and EDR (15.12 and 18.75 km/year, respectively) were higher than that of GRP
pc
(13.79 km/year) and UPR (6.89 km/year) annually during the study period. Further, the bivariate spatial autocorrelation variation is in line with the movement trends of gravity centers which showed a polarization trend of population aging and social-economic factors that the difference between southwest and northeast directions and exhibited a tendency to expand in China.
Conclusions
In sum, our findings revealed the difference in spatio-temporal distribution and variation between population aging and social-economic factors in China. It further indicates that the opposite movements of gravity centers and the change of the BiLISA in space which may result in the increase of the economic burden of the elderly care in northern China. Hence, future development policy should focus on the social-economic growth and distribution of old-aged supporting resources, especially in northern China.
Journal Article
Trends, Determinants and the Implications of Population Aging in Iran
Fertility and mortality decline are major drivers of Iran’s population aging. A rapid and sharp fall in fertility rates over the past three decades as well as a substantial rise in life expectancy are causing rapid aging of Iran’s population. The present paper uses the 2015 United Nations Population Division data to discuss the trends, determinants and the implications of population aging in Iran. According to the medium fertility variant, people age 60 and older will represent 31% (almost 29 million people) of Iran’s population by 2050. The population age 65 and older is projected to be 22% (more than 20 million) and that of aged 80 and older 3.8% (around 3.5 million) in 2050, that are almost four-times higher than the corresponding figures in 2015. Data on the speed of population aging show that Iran is the second fastest aging country in the world in terms of the percentage point increase in the population age 60 and over between 2015 and 2050; Iran is second only to South Korea, by less than .01%. The rapid population aging of Iran has significant implications for all societal institutions and decision makers that have to be addressed by the Iranian society. Gender-related issues and socio-economic security in old age are two key issues resulting from such a fast population aging. As with many rapidly aging populations, Iran needs a strategy for social and economic supports for an aging population that will not promote views of aging people as a burden.
Journal Article
Spatiotemporal evolution of global population ageing from 1960 to 2017
Background
Population ageing is an increasingly severe global issue. And this has been posing challenges for public health policies and medical resource allocation There are various features of population ageing in different regions worldwide.
Methods
All data were obtained from the health data of World Bank Open Data. Quantile linear regression was used to subtly measure the common variation tendency and strength of the global ageing rate and ageing population. The Bayesian space-time hierarchy model (BSTHM) was employed to assess the detailed spatial temporal evolution of ageing rate and ageing population in global 195 countries and regions.
Results
Annual growth of the ageing (65 and above) rate occurred on six continents: Europe (0.1532%), Oceania (0.0873%), Asia (0.0834%), South America (0.0723%), North America (0.0673%) and Africa (0.0069%). The coefficient of variation of the global ageing rate increased from 0.54 in 1960 to 0.69 in 2017. The global ageing rate and ageing population increased over this period, correlating positively with their quantiles. Most countries (37/39) in Europe belong to the top level with regard to the ageing rate, including the countries with the greatest degree of ageing—Sweden, Germany, Austria, Belgium and the UK—whose spatial relative risks of ageing are 3.180 (3.113–3.214), 3.071 (3.018–3.122), 2.951 (2.903–3.001), 2.932 (2.880–2.984) and 2.917 (2.869–2.967), respectively. Worldwide, 44 low ageing areas which were distributed mainly in Africa (26 areas) and Asia (15 areas) experienced a decreasing trend of ageing rates. The local trends of ageing population in the 195 areas increased.
Conclusions
The differentiation of global population ageing is becoming increasingly serious. Globally, all 195 areas showed an increasing local ageing trend in absolute terms, although there were 44 low-ageing areas that experienced a decreasing local trend of ageing rate. The statistical results may provide some baseline reference for developing public health policies in various countries or regions, especially in less-developed areas.
Journal Article
Continued use intention of wearable health technologies among the elderly: an enablers and inhibitors perspective
PurposeWearable health technologies (WHTs) show promise in improving the health and well-being of the aging population because they promote healthy lifestyles. They can be used to collect health information from users and encourage them to be physically active. Despite potential benefits of WHTs, recent studies have shown that older people have low continued use intention toward WHTs. Previous work on this topic is disjointed, and new theoretical viewpoints are required.Design/methodology/approachThe authors propose an enablers and inhibitors perspective to model factors influencing continued use intention of WHTs among the elderly. To test the model, we collected data from Chinese elderly (N = 295) who had prior experience using WHTs.FindingsThe study results show that social value is the strongest enabler of continued WHT use, and emotional and epistemic values and device quality also increase use continuance. Inertia and technology anxiety were identified as significant inhibitors. A post hoc importance performance map analysis revealed that while emotional value is a highly significant predictor of continued WHT use, existing WHTs do not stimulate such value in our sample.Research limitations/implicationsThe research findings illustrate the importance of incorporating user resistance in technology acceptance studies in general and WHT usage studies in particular. This study contributes by providing an integrative model of technology continued use intention for the elderly along with practical implications for policymakers.Originality/valueA limited number of prior studies have taken both enablers and inhibitors into account when explaining continued WHT use intention among the elderly. This paper fills this research gap and contributes to the WHT literature by considering both enablers and inhibitors in the same model. Moreover, this study contributes to the ongoing research on WHT, and more broadly, gerontechnology use among the elderly.
Journal Article