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A consistent determinant of the establishment success of alien species appears to be the number of individuals that are introduced to found a population (propagule pressure), yet variation in the form of this relationship has been largely unexplored. Here, we present the first quantitative systematic review of this form, using Bayesian meta-analytical methods. The relationship between propagule pressure and establishment success has been evaluated for a broad range of taxa and life histories, including invertebrates, herbaceous plants and long-lived trees, and terrestrial and aquatic vertebrates. We found a positive mean effect of propagule pressure on establishment success to be a feature of every hypothesis we tested. However, establishment success most critically depended on propagule pressures in the range of 10-100 individuals. Heterogeneity in effect size was associated primarily with different analytical approaches, with some evidence of larger effect sizes in animal rather than plant introductions. Conversely, no variation was accounted for in any analysis by the scale of study (field to global) or methodology (observational, experimental, or proxy) used. Our analyses reveal remarkable consistency in the form of the relationship between propagule pressure and alien population establishment success.

The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (FAW), first invaded Africa in 2016 and has since become established in many areas across the continent where it poses a serious threat to food and nutrition security. We re-parameterized the existing CLIMEX model to assess the FAW global invasion threat, emphasizing the risk of transient and permanent population establishment in Africa under current and projected future climates, considering irrigation patterns. FAW can establish itself in almost all countries in eastern and central Africa and a large part of western Africa under the current climate. Climatic barriers, such as heat and dry stresses, may limit the spread of FAW to North and South Africa. Future projections suggest that FAW invasive range will retract from both northern and southern regions towards the equator. However, a large area in eastern and central Africa is projected to have an optimal climate for FAW persistence. These areas will serve as FAW ‘hotspots’ from where it may migrate to the north and south during favorable seasons and then pose an economic threat. Our projections can be used to identify countries at risk for permanent and transient FAW-population establishment and inform timely integrated pest management interventions under present and future climate in Africa.

1. In a rapidly urbanising world, the ability of plant species to survive and build selfsustaining populations in urban environments is increasingly important for biodiversity conservation. Yet, the contribution of cities to biodiversity conservation remains unclear because ecologists have studied biodiversity patterns, largely without considering the population establishment of plants and the ways in which different kinds of urban ecosystems harbour native and endangered plant species. These limitations can mislead conservation policies for cities. 2. To better understand how urban ecosystems can contribute to biodiversity conservation, we propose a framework that links the population status (casual or established) of plant species with ecosystem novelty and highlights barriers to population establishment in different types of urban ecosystems, from natural remnants to novel ecosystems. 3. To quantify the relative importance of natural remnants vs. human-shaped ecosystems for the conservation of self-sustaining urban plant populations, we reanalyse a unique dataset from a metropolitan region in Europe with information on the population status of 1,199 plant species. 4. Results demonstrate that urban ecosystems harbour many established native and endangered species although a considerable share (37%) of species of conservation concern are confined to natural remnants. In hybrid and immature novel ecosystems, high species numbers reflect many species with only casual populations. The role of novel ecosystems as habitats for native and endangered plant species increases as novel ecosystems mature. 5. Synthesis and applications. General information about plant species richness in urban environments may mislead conservation policies as different kinds of urban ecosystems can play different roles in harbouring species of conservation concern. Moreover, presence/absence data can mask establishment failures of species. This proposed framework helps to distinguish between casual and established populations of plant species, and highlights barriers to population persistence in urban ecosystems, reflecting different land uses and land use histories over time. Revealing the role of natural remnants vs. hybrid vs. novel ecosystems as habitats for species of conservation concern illustrates opportunities for biodiversity conservation in all urban ecosystems and can support setting priorities for conservation.

Reintroductions to establish populations usually occur in locations believed to have high-quality habitat to maximize the potential for high population growth rates and long-term population viability. Nonetheless, researchers and managers may have insufficient knowledge of what comprises high-quality habitat or of other requirements for members of a species with low population sizes or how to determine whether these conditions are present at potential reintroduction sites. Locations available for reintroduction may lack optimal habitat but have other characteristics that can benefit a reintroduction. Reintroductions allow rigorous study of reintroduced animals to improve understanding of a species’ biology and to inform future management and conservation actions. The fisher, a medium sized carnivoran in the family Mustelidae, is a long-lived (5–8 years) species of concern in western North America due, in part, to the perceived incompatibility of fishers and landscapes commercially managed for timber production. Due to concern about the status of fishers in California, from late 2009 to late 2011 we reintroduced 40 fishers from across northwestern California to the 648 km 2 , privately owned Stirling Management Area that was managed intensively for timber production in the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades of California. The controlled initial conditions facilitated research into other aspects of fisher biology. We monitored reintroduced fishers and their offspring through 2017 to evaluate whether this managed landscape in California, predicted to possess adequate habitat for fishers, could support a new fisher population. Both female and male fishers had high monthly survival (>0.95). On average, 81% of adult females gave birth with a mean litter size of 1.9 ± 0.1 (minimum number of kits ±95% confidence interval). Survival and reproduction rates were constant across years and all vital rates were similar to most extant fisher populations elsewhere in California. By 2013, reproduction was effectively independent of the founding individuals. By 2017, the population was relatively small (n = 119 ± 96–141, 95% credible intervals) but had nearly tripled over the initial number reintroduced. Stochastic population simulations indicated that the population is unlikely to go extinct within the first 50 years after reintroduction, or 40 years after the completion of field research. Nevertheless, significant habitat changes resulting from wildfire could change those predictions. Thus, sites with landscape conditions similar to our study site and managed similarly for timber production should be considered when planning future fisher reintroductions.

1. Quantifying the complex spatial dynamics taking place at range edges is critical for understanding future distributions of species, yet very few systems have sufficient data or the spatial resolution to empirically test these dynamics. This paper reviews how data from a large-scale pest management programme have provided important contributions to the fields of population dynamics and invasion biology. 2. The invasion of gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) is well-documented from its introduction near Boston, Massachusetts USA in 1869 to its current extent of over 900,000 km² in Eastern North America. Over the past two decades, the USDA Forest Service Slow the Spread (STS) programme for managing the future spread of gypsy moth has produced unrivalled spatiotemporal data across the invasion front. 3. The STS programme annually deploys a grid of 60,000–100,000 pheromone-baited traps, currently extending from Minnesota to North Carolina. The data from this programme have provided the foundation for investigations of complex population dynamics and the ability to examine ecological hypotheses previously untestable outside of theoretical venues, particularly regarding invasive spread and Allee effects. 4. This system provides empirical data on the importance of long-distance dispersal and time-lags on population establishment and spatial spread. Studies showing high rates of spatiotemporal variation of the range edge, from rapid spread to border stasis and even retraction, highlight future opportunities to test mechanisms that influence both invasive and native species ranges. 5. The STS trap data have also created a unique opportunity to study low-density population dynamics and quantify Allee effects with empirical data. Notable contributions include evidence for spatiotemporal variation in Allee effects, demonstrating empirical links between Allee effects and spatial spread, and testing mechanisms of population persistence and growth rates at range edges. 6. There remain several outstanding questions in spatial ecology and population biology that can be tested within this system, such as the scaling of local ecological processes to large-scale dynamics across landscapes. The gypsy moth is an ideal model of how important ecological questions can be answered by thinking more broadly about monitoring data.

Irrigation with 200 mM NaCl significantly increases vegetative and reproductive growth of the extreme halophyte Suaeda salsa . However, little is known about how the progeny of S. salsa plants grown under a continuous NaCl supply behave in terms of growth and seed set parameters. We investigated various plant growth and reproductive parameters of the progeny that germinated from seeds harvested from mother plants grown under 0 or 200 mM NaCl over three generations. Seedling emergence, plant height, stem diameter, total branch length, flowering branch length, flowering branch ratio, and seed production were all significantly enhanced in the progeny produced by mother plants grown with 200 mM NaCl compared to progeny of mother plants grown on low salinity conditions. Therefore, irrigation with 200 mM of NaCl is beneficial to seed development in the halophyte S. salsa and possibly contributes to population establishment in high salinity environments. Likewise, the prolonged absence of NaCl in the growth environment inhibits seed development, results in lower seed quality, and thus limits seedling growth of the progeny, thereby restricting S. salsa to a high salinity ecological niche.

Abstract The feral cattle of the subantarctic island of Amsterdam provide an outstanding case study of a large mammalian population that was established by a handful of founders and thrived within a few generations in a seemingly inhospitable environment. Here, we investigated the genetic history and composition of this population using genotyping and sequencing data. Our inference showed an intense but brief founding bottleneck around the late 19th century and revealed contributions from European taurine and Indian Ocean Zebu in the founder ancestry. Comparative analysis of whole-genome sequences further revealed a moderate reduction in genetic diversity despite high levels of inbreeding. The brief and intense bottleneck was associated with high levels of drift, a flattening of the site frequency spectrum and a slight relaxation of purifying selection on mildly deleterious variants. Unlike some populations that have experienced prolonged reductions in effective population size, we did not observe any significant purging of highly deleterious variants. Interestingly, the population’s success in the harsh environment can be attributed to preadaptation from their European taurine ancestry, suggesting no strong bioclimatic challenge, and also contradicting evidence for insular dwarfism. Genome scan for footprints of selection uncovered a majority of candidate genes related to nervous system function, likely reflecting rapid feralization driven by behavioral changes and complex social restructuring. The Amsterdam Island cattle offers valuable insights into rapid population establishment, feralization, and genetic adaptation in challenging environments. It also sheds light on the unique genetic legacies of feral populations, raising ethical questions according to conservation efforts.

Summary 1. Over the past two decades, Ixodes scapularis, the primary tick vector of the Lyme disease pathogen Borrelia burgdorferi in North America has expanded its range northward from the USA to colonize new regions in southern Canada. We have previously projected range increases for I. scapularis based on temperature suitability, but to what extent this is matched by actual tick range expansion is unknown. 2. Since 1990, I. scapularis ticks have been collected across Canada offering a unique opportunity to track the range expansion of an arthropod vector. We used these data to model time‐to‐establishment for tick populations across Canada to identify factors influencing the rate of spread. 3. Our results point to both long‐distance dispersal of ticks by migratory birds and local dispersal by resident hosts as important potential mechanisms underlying patterns of tick range expansion. 4. Temperature (accumulated degree days > 0 °C) was the most important determinant of environmental suitability for tick population establishment, suggesting that climate warming may facilitate range expansion. 5. Model projections suggest that I. scapularis range will expand c. 46 km year−1 in the coming decade, with climate warming expected to increase the rate of spread. This expansion is likely to result in a substantial increase in human Lyme disease risk, with the proportion of the human population of eastern Canada inhabiting areas with established tick populations increasing from 18% in 2010 to over 80% by 2020. 6. This first empirical model of I. scapularis invasion supports theoretical range projections based on climate suitability and provides a unique data‐driven estimate of the speed of northward range expansion for I. scapularis at the continental scale. 7. Synthesis and applications. By tracking I. scapularis invasion in Canada over the past two decades, we show that I. scapularis is rapidly expanding its range and is likely to colonize the most densely populated areas of southern Canada in the coming decade. These projections suggest that prompt action is necessary to prepare the Canadian public for a likely epidemic of Lyme disease, with emphasis on focusing surveillance activities to confirm the locations of emerging Lyme disease risk. By tracking I. scapularis invasion in Canada over the past two decades, we show that I. scapularis is rapidly expanding its range and is likely to colonize the most densely populated areas of southern Canada in the coming decade. These projections suggest that prompt action is necessary to prepare the Canadian public for a likely epidemic of Lyme disease, with emphasis on focusing surveillance activities to confirm the locations of emerging Lyme disease risk.

To successfully establish itself in a novel environment, an animal must make an inherent trade-off between knowledge accumulation and exploitation of knowledge gained (i.e., the exploration–exploitation dilemma). To evaluate how habitat quality affects the spatio-temporal scale of switching between exploration and exploitation during home range establishment, we conducted experimental trials comparing resource selection and space-use of translocated animals to those of reference individuals using reciprocal translocations between habitat types of differing quality. We selected wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) as a model species to investigate hypotheses related to the movement behavior of translocated individuals because they are globally distributed large mammals that are often translocated within their introduced range to facilitate recreational hunting. Individuals translocated to higher quality habitat (i.e. higher proportions of bottomland hardwood habitats) exhibited smaller exploratory movements and began exploiting resources more quickly than those introduced to lower quality areas, although those in lower-quality areas demonstrated an increased rate of selection for preferred habitat as they gained knowledge of the landscape. Our data demonstrate that habitat quality mediates the spatial and temporal scale at which animals respond behaviorally to novel environments, and how these processes may determine the success of population establishment.