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"Population forecasting."
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Is the age pension in Australia sustainable and fair? Evidence from forecasting the old-age dependency ratio using the Hamilton-Perry model
The age pension aims to assist eligible elderly Australians who meet specific age and residency criteria in maintaining basic living standards. In designing efficient pension systems, government policymakers seek to satisfy the expectations of the overall aging population in Australia. However, the population’s unique demographic characteristics at the state and territory level are often overlooked due to the lack of available data. We use the Hamilton-Perry model, which requires minimum input, to model and forecast the evolution of age-specific populations at the state and territory level. We also integrate the obtained sub-national demographic information to determine sustainable pension ages up to 2051. We also investigate pension welfare distribution in all states and territories to identify the disadvantaged residents under the current pension system. Using the sub-national mortality data for Australia from 1971 to 2021 obtained from AHMD (2023), we implement the Hamilton-Perry model with the help of functional time series forecasting techniques. With the forecasts of age-specific population sizes for each state and territory, we compute the old age dependency ratio to determine the nationwide sustainable pension age.
Journal Article
Population Ageing and Australia's Future
\"This volume provides evidence from many of Australia’s leading scholars from a range of social science disciplines to support policies that address challenges presented by Australia’s ageing population. It builds on presentations made to the 2014 Symposium of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia. The material is in four parts: Perspectives on Ageing; Population Ageing: Global, regional and Australian perspectives; Improving Health and Wellbeing; Responses by Government and Families/Individuals. ‘The Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia sees this volume as a major contribution to improving our understanding of Australia’s population ageing. Social science research in this area truly underpins our ability as a nation to manage such demographic change, and its consequences for the economy and society. Such knowledge helps ensure that our citizens can live even better lives.’ — Glenn Withers, President, ASSA\"
eBook
Maximum Canada : why 35 million Canadians are not enough
\"Award-winning author and Globe and Mail feature columnist Doug Saunders argues we need 100 million Canadians if we're to outgrow our colonial past and build a safer, greener, more prosperous future. It would shock most Canadians to learn that before 1967, more people have fled this country than immigrated to it. That was no accident. Long after we ceased to be an actual colony, our economic policies and social tendencies kept us poorly connected to the outside world, attracting few of the people and building few of the institutions needed to sustain us. Canada has a history of underpopulation, and its effects are still being felt. Post-1967, a new Canada emerged. The closed, colonial idea of Canada gave way to an open, pluralist and connected vision. At Canada's 150th anniversary, that open vision has become a fragile consensus across major parties and cultures. Yet support for a closed Canada remains influential. In a rare and bold vision for Canada's future, Maximum Canada proposes a most audacious way forward: To avoid global obscurity and create lasting prosperity, to build equality and reconciliation of indigenous and regional divides, and to ensure economic and ecological sustainability, Canada needs to triple its population--and this can be done without a large immigration increase.\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Forecasting and Criminal Justice Policy and Practice
We address the organization of criminal justice forecasting and implications for its use in criminal justice policymaking. We argue that the use of forecasting is relatively widespread in criminal justice agency settings, but it is used primarily to inform decision-making and practice rather than to formulate and test new policy proposals. Using predictive policing and prison population forecasting as our main examples of the range of forecasting methods adopted in criminal justice practice, we describe their uses, how their use is organized, and the implications of the organizational arrangements for the transparent, reviewable, and consensual use of forecasting. We point out that both prison population forecasting and predictive policing have long histories that have led to advances in methodology. Prison population forecasting has generally become embedded in budget decision-making processes that contribute to greater transparency in method and applications. Predictive policing has been less transparent in method and use, partly because the methods are more complicated and rely on larger amounts of data, but it generally has not be used in ways to foster community engagement and build public support. Concerns about the legitimacy of its use persist.
Journal Article
Demography and Population Projection of ITetranychus urticae/I Colonized by Entomopathogenic Fungal Endophytes
The two-spotted spider mite Tetranychus urticae and its interactions with fungi, notably Beauveria bassiana, on common bean plants were the main subjects of this study. The mite’s life cycle on untreated and endophyte-colonized plants was examined using the age-stage, two-sex life table hypothesis. The findings indicated that mites reared on untreated plants had shorter developmental stages and higher fecundity than those on colonized plants. Furthermore, mites on untreated plants displayed a higher intrinsic rate of increase and net reproductive rate. The study also revealed that fungal endophyte colonization negatively affected mite growth, adult lifespan, fecundity, reproductive rate, and the intrinsic rate of increase. The findings point to a possible application of entomopathogenic fungal endophytes in host plant resistance programs for future integrated pest control. Tetranychus urticae is a highly polyphagous and global pest. Spider mites primarily feed on the underside of leaves, resulting in decreased photosynthesis, nutritional loss, and the development of chlorotic patches. We investigated the life tables of the two-spotted spider mite T. urticae on fungal endophyte Beauveria bassiana colonized and untreated plants of the common Phaseolus vulgaris L., a bean plant. Based on the age-stage, two-sex life table theory, data were evaluated. The mites raised on untreated plants had protonymphs, deutonymphs, and total pre-adult stage durations that were considerably shorter (1.76, 2.14, and 9.77 d, respectively) than the mites raised on plants that had been colonized (2.02, 2.45, and 10.49 d, respectively). The fecundity (F) varied from 28.01 eggs per female of colonized plants to 57.67 eggs per female of endophyte-untreated plants. The net reproductive rate (R[sub.0] ) in the plants with and without endophytes was 19.26 and 42.53 brood, respectively. The untreated plants had an intrinsic rate of increase (rm) of 0.245 days as opposed to the colonized plants, which had an r of 0.196 days and a finite rate of increase (λ) (1.27 and 1.21, respectively). Population forecasts based on a two-sex, age-stage life table demonstrated the dynamism and variability of the stage structure. Furthermore, the colonization of B. bassiana had a negative impact on the growth and development of T. urticae. It lowered the adult mite life span, female fecundity, net reproduction rate, and intrinsic growth rate. We propose that future research should better use entomopathogenic fungal endophytes to understand host plant resistance strategies in integrated pest management.
Journal Article
Stochastic population forecasts based on conditional expert opinions
The paper develops and applies an expert-based stochastic population forecasting method, which can also be used to obtain a probabilistic version of scenario-based official forecasts. The full probability distribution of population forecasts is specified by starting from expert opinions on the future development of demographic components. Expert opinions are elicited as conditional on the realization of scenarios, in a two-step (or multiple-step) fashion. The method is applied to develop a stochastic forecast for the Italian population, starting from official scenarios from the Italian National Statistical Office.
Journal Article
How population change will transform our world
In How Population Will Transform Our World, Sarah Harper looks at fertility rates and age structures of populations in different regions of the world against the backdrop of urbanization and climate change, drawing out the profound implications and challenges for societies, economies, and the environment in the decades to come.
eBook