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"Population levels"
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Within‐Ecosystem Comparison of Bigmouth Buffalo Ictiobus cyprinellus and Common Carp Cyprinus carpio Reveals Diverging Population Trajectories, Declining Recruitment, and a Lifespan of 148 Years
by
Bielak‐Lackmann, Ewelina S.
,
Foley, Michelle
,
Villeneuve, James
in
Aquatic ecosystems
,
Buffalo
,
buffalofish
2025
The bigmouth buffalo Ictiobus cyprinellus is a long‐lived, migratory freshwater fish native to North America whose numbers are declining amidst increasing conservation concerns. Recent studies have uncovered long lifespans, delayed maturation, and episodic recruitment of bigmouth buffalo. Building from previous work in the Qu'Appelle watershed of Saskatchewan, here we quantify otolith‐derived population demographics of bigmouth buffalo and invasive common carp Cyprinus carpio across multiple sites in the drainage. The common carp ( n = 125) and bigmouth buffalo ( n = 173) collected from 2018 to 2024 reveal that common carp reach asymptotic size two times faster, live three times shorter lives, and invest significantly more into reproduction while also exhibiting recruitment stability during the water control era (post‐1958). Indeed, invasive common carp now outnumber native bigmouth buffalo in this watershed by at least an order of magnitude. In contrast, only a single year class (1997) was evident for bigmouth buffalo after 1949. Therefore, only one recruitment year was evident for this species since common carp were first detected in the system in 1955. Remarkably, we find that as of 2024 more than 90% of bigmouth buffalo in this system are greater than 75 years old with a known maximum age of 148 years. We now know that the bigmouth buffalo is the 11th longest‐lived vertebrate out of more than 66,000 species, and across diverse systems can have recruitment gaps longer than any other animal. Bigmouth buffalo require immediate conservation reassessment amidst ongoing population declines.
Journal Article
Scaling marine fish movement behavior from individuals to populations
by
Patterson, Toby A.
,
Griffiths, Christopher A.
,
Wright, Serena R.
in
Atlantic cod
,
Behavior
,
data storage tags
2018
Understanding how, where, and when animals move is a central problem in marine ecology and conservation. Key to improving our knowledge about what drives animal movement is the rising deployment of telemetry devices on a range of free‐roaming species. An increasingly popular way of gaining meaningful inference from an animal's recorded movements is the application of hidden Markov models (HMMs), which allow for the identification of latent behavioral states in the movement paths of individuals. However, the use of HMMs to explore the population‐level consequences of movement is often limited by model complexity and insufficient sample sizes. Here, we introduce an alternative approach to current practices and provide evidence of how the inclusion of prior information in model structure can simplify the application of HMMs to multiple animal movement paths with two clear benefits: (a) consistent state allocation and (b) increases in effective sample size. To demonstrate the utility of our approach, we apply HMMs and adapted HMMs to over 100 multivariate movement paths consisting of conditionally dependent daily horizontal and vertical movements in two species of demersal fish: Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua; n = 46) and European plaice (Pleuronectes platessa; n = 61). We identify latent states corresponding to two main underlying behaviors: resident and migrating. As our analysis considers a relatively large sample size and states are allocated consistently, we use collective model output to investigate state‐dependent spatiotemporal trends at the individual and population levels. In particular, we show how both species shift their movement behaviors on a seasonal basis and demonstrate population space use patterns that are consistent with previous individual‐level studies. Tagging studies are increasingly being used to inform stock assessment models, spatial management strategies, and monitoring of marine fish populations. Our approach provides a promising way of adding value to tagging studies because inferences about movement behavior can be gained from a larger proportion of datasets, making tagging studies more relevant to management and more cost‐effective. Tagging studies are increasingly being used to inform stock assessment models, spatial management strategies, and the monitoring of marine fish populations. One criticism of tagging studies is that they often lack in sample size, limiting a researcher's ability to ask population‐ and management‐level questions of their data. By introducing a novel adaptation to the behavioural classification of movement observations, we demonstrate how researchers can use a combination of data‐rich and data‐poor movement paths to infer population‐level space use patterns, ultimately making tagging studies more cost‐effective and more relevant to management objectives.
Journal Article
Population-Level Effects of Lead Fishing Tackle on Common Loons
by
VOGEL, HARRY S.
,
LAFLAMME, ERIC M.
,
POKRAS, MARK A.
in
adults
,
Aquatic birds
,
Bioaccumulation
2018
Poisoning from lead fishing tackle has been identified as the leading cause of mortality in adult common loons (Gavia immer). As a K-selected species, adult survival is a critical component in the population demography of loons, but the population-level effects of mortality from ingested lead tackle on loons have not been quantified. We used a long-term dataset (1989–2012) on common loon mortality in New Hampshire, USA, to describe the types of lead tackle ingested by loons, investigate methods of ingestion of lead tackle, document the number and rate of adult mortalities resulting from lead tackle, and test for a population-level effect of lead tackle on the loon population in New Hampshire. Nearly half (48.6%) of collected adult mortalities resulted from lead toxicosis from ingested lead fishing tackle, representing an adjusted annual mortality rate of 1.7 ± 0.6% (SD) of the statewide population. Jigs accounted for 52.6% and sinkers for 38.8% of the archived lead tackle objects removed from loons, a higher proportion of jigs than has been reported in previous studies. The timing of lead tackle mortalities and a high incidence of accompanying non-lead associated fishing gear (hooks, fishing line, leaders, swivels, wire), which peaked in July and August, suggest that loons obtain the majority of lead tackle from current fishing activity rather than from a reservoir of lead tackle on lake bottoms. To project the statewide loon population in the absence of lead fishing tackle as a stressor, we constructed a retrospective population model, which re-inserted loons that died from lead tackle into the population, and used linear regression to test for a population-level effect. We defined a population-level effect as a difference in the population growth rate (λ). We estimated that lead tackle mortality reduced the population growth rate (λ) by 1.4% and the statewide population by 43% during the years of the study. This study suggests that replacing lead fishing sinkers and jigs weighing ≤28.4 g with non-toxic alternatives would result in an immediate benefit to the loon population in New Hampshire.
Journal Article
Demographic and potential biological removal models identify raptor species sensitive to current and future wind energy
by
Beston, Julie A.
,
Merrill, Matt D.
,
Diffendorfer, Jay E.
in
Animal breeding
,
Anthropogenic factors
,
applied ecology
2021
A central challenge in applied ecology is understanding the effect of anthropogenic fatalities on wildlife populations and predicting which populations may be particularly vulnerable and in greatest need of management attention. We used three approaches to investigate the potential effects of fatalities from collisions with wind turbines on 14 raptor species for both current (106 GW) and anticipated future (241 GW) levels of installed wind energy capacity in the United States. Our goals were to identify species at relatively high vs low risk of experiencing population declines from turbine collisions and to also compare results generated from these approaches. Two of the approaches used a calculated turbine‐caused mortality rate to decrement population growth, where population trends were derived either from the North American Breeding Bird Survey or from a matrix model parameterized from literature‐derived demographic values. The third approach was potential biological removal, which estimates the number of fatalities that allow a population to reach and maintain its optimal sustainable population set by management objectives. Different results among the methods reveal substantial gaps in knowledge and uncertainty in both demographic parameters and species‐specific estimates of fatalities from wind turbines. Our results suggest that, of the 14 species studied, those with relatively higher potential of population‐level impacts from wind turbine collisions included barn owl, ferruginous hawk, golden eagle, American kestrel, and red‐tailed hawk. Burrowing owl, Cooper’s hawk, great horned owl, northern harrier, turkey vulture, and osprey had a relatively lower potential for population impacts, and results were not easily interpretable for merlin, prairie falcon, and Swainson’s hawk. Projections of current levels of fatalities to future wind energy scenarios at 241 GW of installed capacity suggest some species could experience population declines because of turbine collisions. Populations of those species may benefit from research to identify tools to prevent or reduce raptor collisions with wind turbines.
Journal Article
Estimating the economic burden of colorectal cancer in China, 2019–2030: A population‐level prevalence‐based analysis
2024
Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common cancers worldwide. Comprehensive data on the economic burden of CRC at a population‐level is critical in informing policymaking, but such data are currently limited in China. Methods From a societal perspective, the economic burden of CRC in 2019 was estimated, including direct medical and nonmedical expenditure, disability, and premature‐death‐related indirect expenditure. Data on disease burden was taken from the GBD 2019 and analyzed using a prevalence‐based approach. The per‐person direct expenditure and work loss days were from a multicenter study; the premature‐death‐related expenditure was estimated using a human capital approach. Projections were conducted in different simulated scenarios. All expenditure data were in Chinese Yuan (CNY) and discounted to 2019. Results In 2019, the estimated overall economic burden of CRC in China was CNY170.5 billion (0.189% of the local GDP). The direct expenditure was CNY106.4 billion (62.4% of the total economic burden), 91.4% of which was a direct medical expenditure. The indirect expenditure was CNY64.1 billion, of which 63.7% was related to premature death. The predicted burden would reach CNY560.0 billion in 2030 given constant trends for disease burden; however, it would be alternatively reduced to
Journal Article
Systematic failure to operate on colorectal cancer liver metastases in California
by
Haye, Sidra
,
Fong, Yuman
,
Melstrom, Laleh
in
Cancer therapies
,
Chemotherapy
,
Clinical Cancer Research
2020
Background Despite evidence that liver resection improves survival in patients with colorectal cancer liver metastases (CRCLM) and may be potentially curative, there are no population‐level data examining utilization and predictors of liver resection in the United States. Methods This is a population‐based cross‐sectional study. We ed data on patients with synchronous CRCLM using California Cancer Registry from 2000 to 2012 and linked the records to the Office of Statewide Health Planning Inpatient Database. Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) was used to map liver resection rates to California counties. Patient‐ and hospital‐level predictors were determined using mixed‐effects logistic regression. Results Of the 24 828 patients diagnosed with stage‐IV colorectal cancer, 16 382 (70%) had synchronous CRCLM. Overall liver resection rate for synchronous CRCLM was 10% (county resection rates ranging from 0% to 33%) with no improvement over time. There was no correlation between county incidence of synchronous CRCLM and rate of resection (R2 = .0005). On multivariable analysis, sociodemographic and treatment‐initiating‐facility characteristics were independently associated with receipt of liver resection after controlling for patient disease‐ and comorbidity‐related factors. For instance, odds of liver resection decreased in patients with black race (OR 0.75 vs white) and Medicaid insurance (OR 0.62 vs private/PPO); but increased with initial treatment at NCI hospital (OR 1.69 vs Non‐NCI hospital), or a high volume (10 + cases/year) (OR 1.40 vs low volume) liver surgery hospital. Conclusion In this population‐based study, only 10% of patients with liver metastases underwent liver resection. Furthermore, the study identifies wide variations and significant population‐level disparities in the utilization of liver resection for CRCLM in California. In this population‐based study, only 10% of patients with liver metastases underwent liver reseaction. Further, the study identifies wide variations and significant population‐level disparities in the utilization of liver resection for CRCLM in California.
Journal Article
What Fish ‘Want’ and ‘Like’: Yet Another Perspective on Fish Welfare
by
Gygax, Lorenz
,
Hillmann, Edna
,
Gansel, Lars Christian
in
Affect (Psychology)
,
Animal welfare
,
Consciousness
2025
In this viewpoint, we highlight two issues that we believe deserve more emphasize in the ongoing discussions on fish welfare. On the basis of the naturally or artificially selected proximate behavioural mechanism, an animal today may attempt to reach goals that are not necessarily equal to the functions that yielded higher fitness in the past process of evolution. These attempts lead to proximate ‘needs’ of animals. Accordingly, we can increase fish welfare by asking what goals fish are trying to reach (‘wanting’) and which results will satisfy their resulting needs (‘liking’). This can be done independently of the hard question about their subjective experiences. Because answering such questions of wanting and liking relies on highly experimental procedures, we should additionally think about approaches to assess fish welfare in practice in a way that goes beyond health aspects, too. Recently developed techniques open exciting avenues to tap into judgement biases of populations that may indicate welfare and may be applicable in large‐scale fish production systems. Being aware of these two issues hopefully helps to temper the conflict between the two current extreme poles of either negating or assuming a high level of fish sentience in the discussion of fish welfare. Animal welfare is likely to depend on affective states also in fish. Given that motivation (wanting) and goal assessment (liking) are important contributors to affective states, it is worthwhile studying and understanding the specific behavioural needs of farmed fish species. This helps to ensure that holding conditions allow them to follow their wants and reach states that they like.
Journal Article
Treed Gaussian processes for animal movement modeling
by
Rieber, Camille J.
,
Haukos, David A.
,
Hefley, Trevor J.
in
Algorithms
,
Animals
,
Bayesian analysis
2024
Wildlife telemetry data may be used to answer a diverse range of questions relevant to wildlife ecology and management. One challenge to modeling telemetry data is that animal movement often varies greatly in pattern over time, and current continuous‐time modeling approaches to handle such nonstationarity require bespoke and often complex models that may pose barriers to practitioner implementation. We demonstrate a novel application of treed Gaussian process (TGP) modeling, a Bayesian machine learning approach that automatically captures the nonstationarity and abrupt transitions present in animal movement. The machine learning formulation of TGPs enables modeling to be nearly automated, while their Bayesian formulation allows for the derivation of movement descriptors with associated uncertainty measures. We demonstrate the use of an existing R package to implement TGPs using the familiar Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We then use estimated movement trajectories to derive movement descriptors that can be compared across individuals and populations. We applied the TGP model to a case study of lesser prairie‐chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) to demonstrate the benefits of TGP modeling and compared distance traveled and residence times across lesser prairie‐chicken individuals and populations. For broad usability, we outline all steps necessary for practitioners to specify relevant movement descriptors (e.g., turn angles, speed, contact points) and apply TGP modeling and trajectory comparison to their own telemetry datasets. Combining the predictive power of machine learning and the statistical inference of Bayesian methods to model movement trajectories allows for the estimation of statistically comparable movement descriptors from telemetry studies. Our use of an accessible R package allows practitioners to model trajectories and estimate movement descriptors, facilitating the use of telemetry data to answer applied management questions. We apply a recently developed Bayesian machine learning model to both increase the accessibility of complex animal movement models and simultaneously achieve advanced modeling of highly varied telemetry data. By nesting this model within a widely applicable inferential framework and utilizing an accessible R package for modeling, we facilitate application by practitioners to model trajectories, estimate movement descriptors, and answer applied management questions.
Journal Article
Sample size guidelines for mapping migration corridors and population distributions using tracking data
by
Slezak, Elissa
,
Beaupre, Chloe
,
Halseth, Joseph
in
GPS tracking
,
migration
,
population‐level mapping
2025
Animal distribution maps are a key tool for wildlife conservation, guiding high‐profile decisions, such as legally designating priority habitat or building highway crossing structures. GPS tracking data enhances these efforts but requires balancing statistically robust sample sizes with minimizing researcher impacts on wildlife and costs. Nevertheless, rigorous guidelines that leverage a priori information are still lacking on how to determine the optimal number of tracked animals (i.e. sample size) for accurately mapping migration corridors and seasonal ranges at the population level, particularly in the context of ungulate conservation. We used a cumulative curve resampling approach to evaluate the consequences of reduced animal sample size, assessed sample size sufficiency and extrapolated where sample size sufficiency might occur outside of the observed data. We illustrate our approach with simulated data. We then compiled GPS data from 77 ungulate populations and aggregated individuals' spatial distributions in each study area to create population‐level migration and seasonal distributions and examined whether known explanatory variables (e.g. population abundance, environmental metrics) could predict sufficient sample sizes to map population distribution. Our simulated and empirical analyses to assess and model sample size sufficiency demonstrated that sample size varies depending on the species, season, population‐level percent volume contour of interest and population abundance. For example, for migration distributions at the 95% volume contour, the interquartile range for number of individuals needed to reach an adequate sample was 10–23 for bighorn sheep, 51–93 for elk and 58–164 for mule deer. Practical implication. For existing datasets, the resampling approach quantifies the sensitivity of population distribution maps to sample size. To guide study design for future GPS tracking projects aimed at mapping population distributions, our models provide specific sample size recommendations incorporating known population covariates. If adequate model training data are available, our approach can be extended across a wide range of taxa and populations to inform sample size requirements for estimating robust distribution patterns. Population‐level distribution maps are essential for wildlife conservation, yet clear guidelines for how many GPS‐tracked animals are needed remain lacking. Using simulated and empirical data from 77 ungulate populations, we evaluated how sample size affects distribution estimates and developed models that predict sufficient sample sizes based on species, season and population covariates. Our approach provides flexible, data‐driven recommendations to inform study design and, with adequate model training data, can be extended across taxa to support robust distribution mapping.
Journal Article
Transcriptome sequencing reveals population differentiation in gene expression linked to functional traits and environmental gradients in the South African shrub Protea repens
by
Carlson, Jane E
,
Holsinger, Kent E
,
Akman, Melis
in
Carbohydrate Metabolism - genetics
,
Cell Wall - metabolism
,
Climate
2016
Understanding the environmental and genetic mechanisms underlying locally adaptive trait variation across the ranges of species is a major focus of evolutionary biology. Combining transcriptome sequencing with common garden experiments on populations spanning geographical and environmental gradients holds promise for identifying such mechanisms. The South African shrub Protea repens displays diverse phenotypes in the wild along drought and temperature gradients. We grew plants from seeds collected at 19 populations spanning this species’ range, and sequenced the transcriptomes of these plants to reveal gene pathways associated with adaptive trait variation. We related expression in co‐expressed gene networks to trait phenotypes measured in the common garden and to source population climate. We found that expression in gene networks correlated with source‐population environment and with plant traits. In particular, the activity of gene networks enriched for growth related pathways correlated strongly with source site minimum winter temperature and with leaf size, stem diameter and height in the garden. Other gene networks with enrichments for photosynthesis related genes showed associations with precipitation. Our results strongly suggest that this species displays population‐level differences in gene expression that have been shaped by source population site climate, and that are reflected in trait variation along environmental gradients.
Journal Article
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