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In pothole‐dominated catchments, such as those in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), potholes strongly influence catchment hydrologic behavior through complex and dynamic fill–spill–connection mechanisms. This complexity—combined with the predominance of ungauged catchments and the lack of high‐resolution pothole inventories—poses challenges for both traditional hydrologic models and purely data‐driven deep learning approaches. To address this, we developed the δHBV‐Pot model within a differentiable modeling framework (δ). This physics‐informed deep learning model integrates the conceptual HBV model with a probabilistic algorithm that emulates the aggregate effects of pothole fill–spill–connection processes. Applied to 98 PPR catchments, δHBV‐Pot achieves stronger predictive accuracy and physical realism than a purely data‐driven Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) model and two conceptual hydrologic models. The PPR‐scale regional δHBV‐Pot model successfully simulates hydrologic behavior for the majority of pseudo‐ungauged (test) catchments withheld during model development, effectively regionalizing (a) high‐flow magnitude and interannual variability, (b) intra‐annual flashiness of high‐flow and normal flow conditions, and (c) interannual variability in pothole water storage dynamics. Moreover, the model identifies vulnerable catchments with large high‐flow magnitude and variability—even in the absence of streamflow data—and delineates catchments with varying temporal variability in pothole water storage without requiring detailed pothole inventories. Our findings highlight the value of combining conceptual hydrology with data‐driven deep learning models in pothole‐dominated regions. This integrated approach enables the regionalization of high‐flow and pothole storage characteristics to ungauged catchments, providing critical insights for vulnerability assessment and the design of sustainable water and ecological management strategies in pothole‐dominated landscapes.

Grasslands, and the depressional wetlands that exist throughout them, are endangered ecosystems that face both climate and land-use change pressures. Tens of millions of dollars are invested annually to manage the existing fragments of these ecosystems to serve as critical breeding habitat for migratory birds. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) contains millions of depressional wetlands that produce between 50% and 80% of the continent’s waterfowl population. Previous modeling efforts suggested that climate change would result in a shift of suitable waterfowl breeding habitat from the central to the southeast portion of the PPR, an area where over half of the depressional wetlands have been drained. The implications of these projections suggest a massive investment in wetland restoration in the southeastern PPR would be needed to sustain waterfowl populations at harvestable levels. We revisited these modeled results indicating how future climate may impact the distribution of waterfowl-breeding habitat using up-to-date climate model projections and a newly developed model for simulating prairie-pothole wetland hydrology. We also presented changes to the number of “May ponds,” a metric used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to estimate waterfowl breeding populations and establish harvest regulations. Based on the output of 32 climate models and two emission scenarios, we found no evidence that the distribution of May ponds would shift in the future. However, our results projected a 12% decrease to 1% increase in May pond numbers when comparing the most recent climate period (1989–2018) to the end of the 21st century (2070–2099). When combined, our results suggest areas in the PPR that currently support the highest densities of intact wetland basins, and thus support the largest numbers of breeding-duck pairs, will likely also be the places most critical to maintaining continental waterfowl populations in an uncertain future.

Land-use practices can alter shallow groundwater and salinity, further impacting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly in the hydrologically dynamic riparian zones of wetlands. Emissions of CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O were estimated in soil cores collected from two prairie pothole region (PPR) sites with three adjacent land-use practices (i. e., annual crop = AC, pasture = PA, and short rotation willow = SRW) and treated with declining water table depths (2 to 26 cm), and salinity (S0 = control, S1 = 6 mS cm⁻¹, and S2 = 12 mS cm⁻¹) in a microcosm experiment. Land-use practices significantly (p < 0.001) affected GHG emissions in soils from both sites in the order of PA > AC = SRW. Compared to the control, emissions of CO₂ and CH₄ were significantly lower under higher salinity treatments (i.e., S1 and S2), while N₂O was significantly higher (p < 0.05). Emissions under declining groundwater table depths were significantly (p < 0.001) variable and specific to each gas, indicating the impacts of shifted soil moisture regime. Overall, the CO₂ and CH₄ emissions increased up to week four and then decreased with declining water table depths, whereas N₂O emission increased up to a maximum at week six. The soils from SRW had considerably lower global warming potential compared to AC and PA. Groundwater salinity in soils from contrasting land-use in the PPR has significant impacts on GHG emissions with potential for crucial climate feedback; however, the magnitude and direction of the impacts depend on hydrology.

Fishes have spread into previously fishless wetlands, likely affecting other species. In the Prairie Pothole Region of North America, the invasion of fish into wetlands is facilitated by interactions of altered land use, climate, and hydrology. We aimed to understand the effects of fishes on amphipods, which are macroinvertebrates that vertebrates rely on as forage. We hypothesized the presence and abundance of fish, particularly benthivores, would have detrimental effects on amphipod abundance. Our study design targeted a large gradient of amphipod abundances among wetlands, including very high abundances of two amphipod species: Gammarus lacustris and Hyalella azteca . We found that fishless basins had twice as many amphipods as those with fish, on average. Gammarus lacustris were not detected in the presence of Black Bullhead Ameiurus melas . The abundance of both amphipod species had negative associations with the most common fishes, Fathead Minnow Pimephales promelas and Brook Stickleback Culaea inconstans . A multivariate community analysis showed the benthivore-fish functional feeding guild was negatively associated with the amphipod community, as hypothesized. However, our study design captured several wetlands with anomalies of high abundances of both fish and amphipods, obscuring their relationships. Our results aid resource managers by confirming several fish guilds and species are associated with lower abundances of amphipods. These findings can inform resource managers who make decisions about managing for fish and wildlife; for example, they may choose to manage existing fish populations or protect existing wetlands with high amphipod densities from new fish invasions.

Land area planted to row crops has expanded globally with increased demand for food and biofuels. Agricultural expansion in the Dakota Prairie Pothole Region (DPPR), USA affects a variety of agricultural and non-agricultural land-use types, including grasslands and wetlands that provide critical wildlife habitat and other ecosystem services. The purpose of this study was to quantify recent changes in rural land cover/land use, analyze trends, and interpret results in relation to climate, agronomic practice, and ethanol production. The primary data sources were 1980–2012 statewide cropland data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service, and the USDA Cropland Data Layer, produced annually for the DPPR from 2006 through 2012. Area planted to corn or soybean row crops increased, and small grain (e.g., wheat, barley) area decreased significantly over the analysis period. Corn and soybean expanded by 27 % in the DPPR between 2010 and 2012 alone, an areal increase (+15,400 km 2 ) larger than the U.S. state of Connecticut. This expansion displaced primarily small grains and grassland (e.g., pastures, haylands, remnant prairies). Grassland regularly exchanged land with corn and soybean, small grains, and wetlands and water. Corn and soybean had high inter-annual self-replacement values (68–80 %), and continuous corn/soy row cropping was the second most common combination over a three-year period, ranking after continuous grassland. Small grain self-replacement values were only 22–35 %, indicating frequent relocation in the landscape. Temporary gains in wetland and grassland area were attributed to unusually wet climatic conditions and late snowfalls that prevented crop planting. Nearly all of the region’s ethanol refineries were located where corn and soybean crops constituted 50 % or more of the land area. Quantification of grassland losses in the U.S. Northern Plains requires evaluation of all land uses that interact with grasslands, and a longer term perspective that incorporates grassland as part of a normal land-use rotation.

ContextDynamic landscapes vary in both space and time, yielding a critical knowledge gap in landscape ecology: does spatiotemporally-variable habitat within a landscape increase species occurrence and abundance? Wetland landscapes are an excellent model system for addressing this question, as wetlands fluctuate in permanence across both space and time, providing habitat and supporting species with diverse life histories.ObjectivesWe applied environmental DNA (eDNA) to evaluate the effect of variability in wetland permanence on amphibian occurrence and abundance across spatiotemporal scales.MethodsWe combined predictions of wetland permanence derived from remotely sensed imagery with eDNA to assess the occurrence and abundance of three amphibian species across the U.S. Plains and Prairie Pothole Region. We tested the effect of variability in wetland permanence on amphibian occurrence and abundance across four spatial–temporal scales: (i) wetland; (ii) landscape context; (iii) wetland across time, and (iv) landscape context across time.ResultsWe found strong evidence that spatial and temporal fluctuations in wetland permanence yielded more amphibian species at higher abundances. Furthermore, we found that species’ responses to wetland variability aligned with a priori predictions based on their natural histories.ConclusionsHabitat variability across spatial and temporal scales promotes species occurrence and abundance. Maintaining the historical range of spatial and temporal variability within landscapes is essential for retaining species variability, particularly under climate change. Integrating eDNA and spatial modeling approaches provide an effective approach for broad-scale biodiversity assessments and for testing ecological theory.

Land-use change and climatic variability are significant drivers for the loss of ecosystem services and soil quality in the prairie pothole region (PPR) wetland systems. Land-use induced changes in groundwater table and salinity may influence biogeochemical processes facilitated by extracellular enzymes (EEs) involved in soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition. The effects of changing groundwater table and salinity on β-glucosidase (BG), N-acetyl glucosaminidase (NAG), and alkaline phosphatase (AP) activities were assessed in wetland soils collected from three different adjacent riparian land-use practices in the PPR. In a microcosm study conducted over ten weeks, soils were treated with groundwater salinity (control, 6 mS cm −1 , and 12 mS cm −1 ) and declining groundwater table depths. Extracellular enzyme activities (EEAs) differed significantly ( p  < 0.05) among soils from different land-uses and between groundwater table depths. The impact of groundwater salinity on soil EEAs were non-significant ( p  > 0.05). Soil EEAs were significantly higher in soils from pasture, suggesting that the land-use effects resulted from background SOC and TN. Soil EEAs significantly ( p  < 0.05) reduced under a deeper groundwater table depth, except reverse for BG in site B, indicated that the lowered groundwater table could lead to transitory drought stress for SOM decomposers. Graphical Abstract

Evaluating the impact of land-use practices on soil organic carbon (SOC) in the Canadian prairie pothole region (PPR) is of concern due to the potential to sequester carbon and sustain soil health. In a field experiment, SOC content, carbon fractions, and chemical composition were assessed under short-rotation willow (SRW) plantation in the marginal riparian zones of two PPR wetland sites and compared with adjacent annual crop (AC) and pasture (PA). The SOC, water extractable (WEOC), light fraction (LFOC), and particulate organic carbon (POC) were used to evaluate the content and its fractions, whereas Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy was used to characterize the chemical composition. The SOC was higher in PA in both sites; however, significant (p < 0.05) only in site B. The SOC, LFOC, and POC followed a similar land-use pattern in both sites, i.e., PA > SRW = AC. The SOC and WEOC were significantly higher (p < 0.05) in 0–15 cm across all land-use practices. The ratios of phenolic and amides to polysaccharides were significantly higher (p < 0.05), while aromatic and carboxylic to polysaccharides were lower under SRW in both sites indicated microbial synthesis of these substances. The abundance of SOC functional groups was higher in the subsoil, accompanied by altered spectral properties with depths showing the potential soil organic matter transformation related to carbon fractions changes. The higher alkyl-C to O-alkyl-C ratio at 15–30 cm under SRW suggested better SOC stability and the potential advantage of C sequestration in the PPR.Graphic abstract

We explored how a geographic information system modeling approach could be used to quantify supporting ecosystem services related to the type, abundance, and distribution of landscape components. Specifically, we use the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs model to quantify habitats that support amphibians and birds, floral resources that support pollinators, native-plant communities that support regional biodiversity, and above- and below-ground carbon stores in the Des Moines Lobe ecoregion of the U.S. We quantified services under two scenarios, one that represented the 2012 Des Moines Lobe landscape, and one that simulated the conversion to crop production of wetlands and surrounding uplands conserved under the USDA Agricultural Conservation Easement Program (ACEP). While ACEP easements only covered 0.35% of the ecoregion, preserved wetlands and grasslands provided for 19,020 ha of amphibian habitat, 21,462 ha of grassland-bird habitat, 18,798 ha of high-quality native wetland plants, and 27,882 ha of floral resources for pollinators. Additionally, ACEP protected lands stored 257,722 t of carbon that, if released, would result in costs in excess of 45-million USD. An integrated approach using results from a GIS-based model in combination with process-based model quantifications will facilitate more informed decisions related to ecosystem service tradeoffs.

In the US Corn Belt, a recent doubling in commodity prices has created incentives for landowners to convert grassland to corn and soybean cropping. Here, we use land cover data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service Cropland Data Layer to assess grassland conversion from 2006 to 2011 in the Western Corn Belt (WCB): five states including North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Iowa. Our analysis identifies areas with elevated rates of grass-to-corn/soy conversion (1.0–5.4% annually). Across the WCB, we found a net decline in grass-dominated land cover totaling nearly 530,000 ha. With respect to agronomic attributes of lands undergoing grassland conversion, corn/soy production is expanding onto marginal lands characterized by high erosion risk and vulnerability to drought. Grassland conversion is also concentrated in close proximity to wetlands, posing a threat to waterfowl breeding in the Prairie Pothole Region. Longer-term land cover trends from North Dakota and Iowa indicate that recent grassland conversion represents a persistent shift in land use rather than short-term variability in crop rotation patterns. Our results show that the WCB is rapidly moving down a pathway of increased corn and soybean cultivation. As a result, the window of opportunity for realizing the benefits of a biofuel industry based on perennial bioenergy crops, rather than corn ethanol and soy biodiesel, may be closing in the WCB.