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Liraglutide 3·0 mg was shown to reduce bodyweight and improve glucose metabolism after the 56-week period of this trial, one of four trials in the SCALE programme. In the 3-year assessment of the SCALE Obesity and Prediabetes trial we aimed to evaluate the proportion of individuals with prediabetes who were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. In this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, adults with prediabetes and a body-mass index of at least 30 kg/m2, or at least 27 kg/m2 with comorbidities, were randomised 2:1, using a telephone or web-based system, to once-daily subcutaneous liraglutide 3·0 mg or matched placebo, as an adjunct to a reduced-calorie diet and increased physical activity. Time to diabetes onset by 160 weeks was the primary outcome, evaluated in all randomised treated individuals with at least one post-baseline assessment. The trial was conducted at 191 clinical research sites in 27 countries and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01272219. The study ran between June 1, 2011, and March 2, 2015. We randomly assigned 2254 patients to receive liraglutide (n=1505) or placebo (n=749). 1128 (50%) participants completed the study up to week 160, after withdrawal of 714 (47%) participants in the liraglutide group and 412 (55%) participants in the placebo group. By week 160, 26 (2%) of 1472 individuals in the liraglutide group versus 46 (6%) of 738 in the placebo group were diagnosed with diabetes while on treatment. The mean time from randomisation to diagnosis was 99 (SD 47) weeks for the 26 individuals in the liraglutide group versus 87 (47) weeks for the 46 individuals in the placebo group. Taking the different diagnosis frequencies between the treatment groups into account, the time to onset of diabetes over 160 weeks among all randomised individuals was 2·7 times longer with liraglutide than with placebo (95% CI 1·9 to 3·9, p<0·0001), corresponding with a hazard ratio of 0·21 (95% CI 0·13–0·34). Liraglutide induced greater weight loss than placebo at week 160 (–6·1 [SD 7·3] vs −1·9% [6·3]; estimated treatment difference −4·3%, 95% CI −4·9 to −3·7, p<0·0001). Serious adverse events were reported by 227 (15%) of 1501 randomised treated individuals in the liraglutide group versus 96 (13%) of 747 individuals in the placebo group. In this trial, we provide results for 3 years of treatment, with the limitation that withdrawn individuals were not followed up after discontinuation. Liraglutide 3·0 mg might provide health benefits in terms of reduced risk of diabetes in individuals with obesity and prediabetes. Novo Nordisk, Denmark.

Objective: Having demonstrated short-term weight loss with liraglutide in this group of obese adults, we now evaluate safety/tolerability (primary outcome) and long-term efficacy for sustaining weight loss (secondary outcome) over 2 years. Design: A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled 20-week study with 2-year extension (sponsor unblinded at 20 weeks, participants/investigators at 1 year) in 19 European clinical research centers. Subjects: A total of 564 adults ( n =90–98 per group; body mass index 30–40 kg m −2 ) enrolled, 398 entered the extension and 268 completed the 2-year trial. Participants received diet (500 kcal deficit per day) and exercise counseling during 2-week run-in, before being randomly assigned (with a telephone or web-based system) to once-daily subcutaneous liraglutide (1.2, 1.8, 2.4 or 3.0 mg, n =90–95), placebo ( n =98) or open-label orlistat (120 mg × 3, n =95). After 1 year, liraglutide/placebo recipients switched to liraglutide 2.4 mg, then 3.0 mg (based on 20-week and 1-year results, respectively). The trial ran from January 2007–April 2009 and is registered with Clinicaltrials.gov , number NCT00480909. Results: From randomization to year 1, liraglutide 3.0 mg recipients lost 5.8 kg (95% confidence interval 3.7–8.0) more weight than those on placebo and 3.8 kg (1.6–6.0) more than those on orlistat ( P ⩽0.0001; intention-to-treat, last-observation-carried-forward). At year 2, participants on liraglutide 2.4/3.0 mg for the full 2 years (pooled group, n =184) lost 3.0 kg (1.3–4.7) more weight than those on orlistat ( n =95; P <0.001). Completers on liraglutide 2.4/3.0 mg ( n =92) maintained a 2-year weight loss of 7.8 kg from screening. With liraglutide 3.0 mg, 20-week body fat decreased by 15.4% and lean tissue by 2.0%. The most frequent drug-related side effects were mild to moderate, transient nausea and vomiting. With liraglutide 2.4/3.0 mg, the 2-year prevalence of prediabetes and metabolic syndrome decreased by 52 and 59%, with improvements in blood pressure and lipids. Conclusion: Liraglutide is well tolerated, sustains weight loss over 2 years and improves cardiovascular risk factors.

There is a direct relationship between bodyweight and risk of diabetes. Lorcaserin, a selective serotonin 2C receptor agonist that suppresses appetite, has been shown to facilitate sustained weight loss in obese or overweight patients. We aimed to evaluate the long-term effects of lorcaserin on diabetes prevention and remission. In this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial done in eight countries, we recruited overweight or obese patients (body-mass index ≥27 kg/m2) with or at high risk for atherosclerotic vascular disease. Eligible patients were aged 40 years or older; patients at high risk for atherosclerotic vascular disease had to be aged 50 years or older with diabetes and at least one other risk factor. Patients were randomly assigned to receive either lorcaserin (10 mg twice daily) or matching placebo. Additionally, all patients had access to a standardised weight management programme based on lifestyle modification. The prespecified primary metabolic efficacy endpoint of time to incident diabetes was assessed in patients with prediabetes at baseline. The prespecified secondary outcomes for efficacy were incident diabetes in all patients without diabetes, achievement of normoglycaemia in patients with prediabetes, and change in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) in patients with diabetes. Hypoglycaemia was a prespecified safety outcome. Analysis was by intention to treat, using Cox proportional hazard models for time-to-event analyses. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02019264. Between Feb 7, 2014, and Nov 20, 2015, 12 000 patients were randomly assigned to lorcaserin or placebo (6000 patients in each group) and followed up for a median of 3·3 years (IQR 3·0–3·5). At baseline, 6816 patients (56·8%) had diabetes, 3991 (33·3%) prediabetes, and 1193 (9·9%) normoglycaemia. At 1 year, patients treated with lorcaserin had a net weight loss beyond placebo of 2·6 kg (95% CI 2·3–2·9) for those with diabetes, 2·8 kg (2·5–3·2) for those with prediabetes, and 3·3 kg (2·6–4·0) for those with normoglycaemia (p<0·0001 for all analyses). Lorcaserin reduced the risk of incident diabetes by 19% in patients with prediabetes (172 [8·5%] of 2015 vs 204 [10·3%] of 1976; hazard ratio 0·81, 95% CI 0·66–0·99; p=0·038) and by 23% in patients without diabetes (174 [6·7%] of 2615 vs 215 [8·4%] of 2569; 0·77, 0·63–0·94; p=0·012). Lorcaserin resulted in a non-significant increase in the rate of achievement of normoglycaemia in patients with prediabetes (185 [9·2%] vs 151 [7·6%]; 1·20, 0·97–1·49; p=0·093). In patients with diabetes, lorcaserin resulted in a reduction of 0·33% (95% CI 0·29–0·38; p<0·0001) in HbA1c compared with placebo at 1 year from a mean baseline of 53 mmol/mol (7·0%). In patients with diabetes at baseline, severe hypoglycaemia with serious complications was rare, but more common with lorcaserin (12 [0·4%] vs four [0·1%] events; p=0·054). Lorcaserin decreases risk for incident diabetes, induces remission of hyperglycaemia, and reduces the risk of microvascular complications in obese and overweight patients, supporting the role of lorcaserin as an adjunct to lifestyle modification for chronic management of weight and metabolic health. Eisai.

Our objective was to quantify and predict diabetes risk reduction during the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study (DPPOS) in participants who returned to normal glucose regulation at least once during the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) compared with those who consistently met criteria for prediabetes. DPPOS is an ongoing observational study of participants from the DPP randomised trial. For this analysis, diabetes cumulative incidence in DPPOS was calculated for participants with normal glucose regulation or prediabetes status during DPP with and without stratification by previous randomised treatment group. Cox proportional hazards modelling and generalised linear mixed models were used to quantify the effect of previous (DPP) glycaemic status on risk of later (DPPOS) diabetes and normal glucose regulation status, respectively, per SD in change. Included in this analysis were 1990 participants of DPPOS who had been randomly assigned to treatment groups during DPP (736 intensive lifestyle intervention, 647 metformin, 607 placebo). These studies are registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00004992 (DPP) and NCT00038727 (DPPOS). Diabetes risk during DPPOS was 56% lower for participants who had returned to normal glucose regulation versus those who consistently had prediabetes (hazard ratio [HR] 0·44, 95% CI 0·37–0·55, p<0·0001) and was unaffected by previous group assignment (interaction test for normal glucose regulation and lifestyle intervention, p=0·1722; normal glucose regulation and metformin, p=0·3304). Many, but not all, of the variables that increased diabetes risk were inversely associated with the chance of a participant reaching normal glucose regulation status in DPPOS. Specifically, previous achievement of normal glucose regulation (odds ratio [OR] 3·18, 95% CI 2·71–3·72, p<0·0001), increased β-cell function (OR 1·28; 95% CI 1·18–1·39, p<0·0001), and insulin sensitivity (OR 1·16, 95% CI 1·08–1·25, p<0·0001) were associated with normal glucose regulation in DPPOS, whereas the opposite was true for prediction of diabetes, with increased β-cell function (HR 0·80, 95% CI 0·71–0·89, p<0·0001) and insulin sensitivity (HR 0·83, 95% CI 0·74–0·94, p=0·0001) having a protective effect. Among participants who did not return to normal glucose regulation in DPP, those assigned to the intensive lifestyle intervention had a higher diabetes risk (HR 1·31, 95% CI 1·03–1·68, p=0·0304) and lower chance of normal glucose regulation (OR 0·59, 95% CI 0·42–0·82, p=0·0014) than did the placebo group in DPPOS. We conclude that prediabetes is a high-risk state for diabetes, especially in patients who remain with prediabetes despite intensive lifestyle intervention. Reversion to normal glucose regulation, even if transient, is associated with a significantly reduced risk of future diabetes independent of previous treatment group. US National Institutes of Health.

The frequency of obesity has risen dramatically in recent years but only few safe and effective drugs are currently available. We assessed the effect of liraglutide on bodyweight and tolerability in obese individuals without type 2 diabetes. We did a double-blind, placebo-controlled 20-week trial, with open-label orlistat comparator in 19 sites in Europe. 564 individuals (18–65 years of age, body-mass index 30–40 kg/m 2) were randomly assigned, with a telephone or web-based system, to one of four liraglutide doses (1·2 mg, 1·8 mg, 2·4 mg, or 3·0 mg, n=90–95) or to placebo (n=98) administered once a day subcutaneously, or orlistat (120 mg, n=95) three times a day orally. All individuals had a 500 kcal per day energy-deficit diet and increased their physical activity throughout the trial, including the 2-week run-in. Weight change analysed by intention to treat was the primary endpoint. An 84-week open-label extension followed. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00422058. Participants on liraglutide lost significantly more weight than did those on placebo (p=0·003 for liraglutide 1·2 mg and p<0·0001 for liraglutide 1·8–3·0 mg) and orlistat (p=0·003 for liraglutide 2·4 mg and p<0·0001 for liraglutide 3·0 mg). Mean weight loss with liraglutide 1·2–3·0 mg was 4·8 kg, 5·5 kg, 6·3 kg, and 7·2 kg compared with 2·8 kg with placebo and 4·1 kg with orlistat, and was 2·1 kg (95% CI 0·6–3·6) to 4·4 kg (2·9–6·0) greater than that with placebo. More individuals (76%, n=70) lost more than 5% weight with liraglutide 3·0 mg that with placebo (30%, n=29) or orlistat (44%, n=42). Liraglutide reduced blood pressure at all doses, and reduced the prevalence of prediabetes (84–96% reduction) with 1·8–3·0 mg per day. Nausea and vomiting occurred more often in individuals on liraglutide than in those on placebo, but adverse events were mainly transient and rarely led to discontinuation of treatment. Liraglutide treatment over 20 weeks is well tolerated, induces weight loss, improves certain obesity-related risk factors, and reduces prediabetes. Novo Nordisk A/S, Bagsvaerd, Denmark.

Both intermittent fasting and specific probiotics have shown promise in improving glucose tolerance with a potential for synergistic effects through alterations to gut microbiota. In this randomized, double-blinded, two-arm feasibility study, we investigated whether intermittent fasting, supplemented with Lacticaseibacillus rhamnosus HN001 probiotic, reduces HbA1c in individuals with prediabetes. All participants with HbA1c 40–50 mmol/mol commenced intermittent fasting (2 days per week of calorie restriction to 600–650 kcal/day) and were randomized 1:1 to either daily probiotic (Lacticaseibacillus rhamnosus HN001) or placebo for 12 weeks. The primary outcome was a change in HbA1c. Secondary outcomes included changes in anthropometry, body composition, glucoregulatory markers, lipids, hunger hormones, liver enzymes, inflammatory markers, gut hormones, calorie and macronutrient intake, quality of life, hunger, mood and eating behavior. Of 33 participants who commenced the trial, 26 participants (mean age 52 years, body mass index (BMI) 34.7 kg/m2) completed the intervention (n = 11 placebo, n = 15 probiotic). HbA1c decreased from 43 ± 2.7 mmol/mol to 41 ± 2.3 mmol/mol, p < 0.001, with average of 5% weight loss. No significant between-group differences were seen in primary or secondary outcomes except for social functioning (p = 0.050) and mental health (p = 0.007) scores as improvements were seen in the probiotic group, but not in the placebo group. This study shows additional psychological benefits of probiotic supplementation during intermittent fasting to achieve weight loss and glycemic improvement in prediabetes.

One-third of US adults, 86 million people, have prediabetes. Two-thirds of adults are overweight or obese and at risk for diabetes. Effective and affordable interventions are needed that can reach these 86 million, and others at high risk, to reduce their progression to diagnosed diabetes. The aim was to evaluate the effectiveness of a fully automated algorithm-driven behavioral intervention for diabetes prevention, Alive-PD, delivered via the Web, Internet, mobile phone, and automated phone calls. Alive-PD provided tailored behavioral support for improvements in physical activity, eating habits, and factors such as weight loss, stress, and sleep. Weekly emails suggested small-step goals and linked to an individual Web page with tools for tracking, coaching, social support through virtual teams, competition, and health information. A mobile phone app and automated phone calls provided further support. The trial randomly assigned 339 persons to the Alive-PD intervention (n=163) or a 6-month wait-list usual-care control group (n=176). Participants were eligible if either fasting glucose or glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) was in the prediabetic range. Primary outcome measures were changes in fasting glucose and HbA1c at 6 months. Secondary outcome measures included clinic-measured changes in body weight, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL) ratio, and Framingham diabetes risk score. Analysis was by intention-to-treat. Participants' mean age was 55 (SD 8.9) years, mean BMI was 31.2 (SD 4.4) kg/m(2), and 68.7% (233/339) were male. Mean fasting glucose was in the prediabetic range (mean 109.9, SD 8.4 mg/dL), whereas the mean HbA1c was 5.6% (SD 0.3), in the normal range. In intention-to-treat analyses, Alive-PD participants achieved significantly greater reductions than controls in fasting glucose (mean -7.36 mg/dL, 95% CI -7.85 to -6.87 vs mean -2.19, 95% CI -2.64 to -1.73, P<.001), HbA1c (mean -0.26%, 95% CI -0.27 to -0.24 vs mean -0.18%, 95% CI -0.19 to -0.16, P<.001), and body weight (mean -3.26 kg, 95% CI -3.26 to -3.25 vs mean -1.26 kg, 95% CI -1.27 to -1.26, P<.001). Reductions in BMI, waist circumference, and TG/HDL were also significantly greater in Alive-PD participants than in the control group. At 6 months, the Alive-PD group reduced their Framingham 8-year diabetes risk from 16% to 11%, significantly more than the control group (P<.001). Participation and retention was good; intervention participants interacted with the program a median of 17 (IQR 14) of 24 weeks and 71.1% (116/163) were still interacting with the program in month 6. Alive-PD improved glycemic control, body weight, BMI, waist circumference, TG/HDL ratio, and diabetes risk. As a fully automated system, the program has high potential for scalability and could potentially reach many of the 86 million US adults who have prediabetes as well as other at-risk groups. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01479062; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01479062 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6bt4V20NR).

Background: Recent studies indicate that glucagon-like peptide (GLP)-1 inhibits appetite in part through regulation of soluble leptin receptors. Thus, during weight loss maintenance, GLP-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) administration may inhibit weight loss-induced increases in soluble leptin receptors thereby preserving free leptin levels and preventing weight regain. Methods: In a randomized controlled trial, 52 healthy obese individuals were, after a diet-induced 12% body weight loss, randomized to treatment with or without administration of the GLP-1RA liraglutide (1.2 mg per day). In case of weight gain, low-calorie diet products were allowed to replace up to two meals per day to achieve equal weight maintenance. Glucose tolerance and hormone responses were investigated before and after weight loss and after 52 weeks weight maintenance. Primary end points: increase in soluble leptin receptor plasma levels and decrease in free leptin index after 52 weeks weight loss maintenance. Results: Soluble leptin receptor increase was 59% lower; 2.1±0.7 vs 5.1±0.8 ng ml −1 (−3.0 (95% confidence interval (CI)=−0.5 to −5.5)), P <0.001 and free leptin index decrease was 43% smaller; −62±15 vs −109±20 (−47 (95% CI=−11 to −83)), P <0.05 with administration of GLP-1RA compared with control group. The 12% weight loss was successfully maintained in both the groups with no significant change in weight after 52 weeks follow-up. The GLP-1RA group had greater weight loss during the weight maintenance period (−2.3 kg (95% CI=−0.6 to −4.0)), and had fewer meal replacements per day compared with the control group (minus one meal per day (95% CI=−0.6 to −1)), P <0.001. Fasting glucose was decreased by an additional −0.2±0.1 mmol l −1 in the GLP-1RA group in contrast to the control group, where glucose increased 0.3±0.1 mmol l −1 to the level before weight loss (−0.5mmol l −1 (95% CI=−0.1 to −0.9)), P <0.005. Meal response of peptide PYY 3–36 was higher at week 52 in the GLP-1RA group compared with the control group, P <0.05. Conclusions: The weight maintaining effect of GLP-1RAs may be mediated by smaller decrease in free leptin and higher PYY 3–36 response. Low dose GLP-1RA therapy maintained 12% weight loss for 1 year and may prevent pre-diabetes in obesity.

Abstract Context There is little information about fatty liver in prediabetes as it transitions to early diabetes. Objective This study is aimed at evaluating the prevalence and determinants of fatty liver in the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP). Methods We measured liver fat as liver attenuation (LA) in Hounsfield units (HU) in 1876 participants at ~14 years following randomization into the DPP, which tested the effects of lifestyle or metformin interventions versus standard care to prevent diabetes. LA was compared among intervention groups and in those with versus without diabetes, and associations with baseline and follow-up measurements of anthropometric and metabolic covariates were assessed. Results There were no differences in liver fat between treatment groups at 14 years of follow-up. Participants with diabetes had lower LA (mean ± SD: 46 ± 16 vs 51 ± 14 HU; P < 0.001) and a greater prevalence of fatty liver (LA < 40 HU) (34% vs 17%; P < 0.001). Severity of metabolic abnormalities at the time of LA evaluation was associated with lower LA categories in a graded manner and more strongly in those with diabetes. Averaged annual fasting insulin (an index of insulin resistance [OR, 95% CI 1.76, 1.41-2.20]) waist circumference (1.63, 1.17-2.26), and triglyceride (1.42, 1.13-1.78), but not glucose, were independently associated with LA < 40 HU prevalence. Conclusion Fatty liver is common in the early phases of diabetes development. The association of LA with insulin resistance, waist circumference, and triglyceride levels emphasizes the importance of these markers for hepatic steatosis in this population and that assessment of hepatic fat in early diabetes development is warranted.