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"Predictive models"
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Foundations of predictive analytics
\"Preface this text is a summary of techniques of data analysis and modeling that the authors have encountered and used in our two-decades experience of practicing the art of applied data mining across many different fields. The authors have worked in this field together and separately in many large and small companies, including the Los Alamos National Laboratory, Bank One (JPMorgan Chase), Morgan Stanley, and the startups of the Center for Adaptive Systems Applications (CASA), the Los Alamos Computational Group and ID Analytics. We have applied these techniques to traditional and nontraditional problems in a wide range of areas including consumer behavior modeling (credit, fraud, marketing), consumer products, stock forecasting, fund analysis, asset allocation, and equity and xed income options pricing. This monograph provides the necessary information for understanding the common techniques for exploratory data analysis and modeling. It also explains the details of the algorithms behind these techniques, including underlying assumptions and mathematical formulations. It is the authors' opinion that in order to apply di erent techniques to di erent problems appropriately, it is essential to understand the assumptions and theory behind each technique. It is recognized that this work is far from a complete treatise on the subject. Many excellent additional texts exist on the popular subjects and it was not a goal for this present text to be a complete compilation. Rather this text contains various discussions on many practical subjects that are frequently missing from other texts, as well as details on some subjects that are not often or easily found. Thus this text makes an excellent supplemental and referential resource for the practitioners of these subjects\"--Provided by publisher.
Assessing Generative Pretrained Transformers (GPT) in Clinical Decision-Making: Comparative Analysis of GPT-3.5 and GPT-4
by
Sharif, Yousra
,
Sharif, Kassem
,
Zoabi, Narmin
in
Artificial Intelligence
,
Clinical Decision-Making
,
Comparative analysis
2024
Artificial intelligence, particularly chatbot systems, is becoming an instrumental tool in health care, aiding clinical decision-making and patient engagement.
This study aims to analyze the performance of ChatGPT-3.5 and ChatGPT-4 in addressing complex clinical and ethical dilemmas, and to illustrate their potential role in health care decision-making while comparing seniors' and residents' ratings, and specific question types.
A total of 4 specialized physicians formulated 176 real-world clinical questions. A total of 8 senior physicians and residents assessed responses from GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 on a 1-5 scale across 5 categories: accuracy, relevance, clarity, utility, and comprehensiveness. Evaluations were conducted within internal medicine, emergency medicine, and ethics. Comparisons were made globally, between seniors and residents, and across classifications.
Both GPT models received high mean scores (4.4, SD 0.8 for GPT-4 and 4.1, SD 1.0 for GPT-3.5). GPT-4 outperformed GPT-3.5 across all rating dimensions, with seniors consistently rating responses higher than residents for both models. Specifically, seniors rated GPT-4 as more beneficial and complete (mean 4.6 vs 4.0 and 4.6 vs 4.1, respectively; P<.001), and GPT-3.5 similarly (mean 4.1 vs 3.7 and 3.9 vs 3.5, respectively; P<.001). Ethical queries received the highest ratings for both models, with mean scores reflecting consistency across accuracy and completeness criteria. Distinctions among question types were significant, particularly for the GPT-4 mean scores in completeness across emergency, internal, and ethical questions (4.2, SD 1.0; 4.3, SD 0.8; and 4.5, SD 0.7, respectively; P<.001), and for GPT-3.5's accuracy, beneficial, and completeness dimensions.
ChatGPT's potential to assist physicians with medical issues is promising, with prospects to enhance diagnostics, treatments, and ethics. While integration into clinical workflows may be valuable, it must complement, not replace, human expertise. Continued research is essential to ensure safe and effective implementation in clinical environments.
Journal Article
Capacity of Generative AI to Interpret Human Emotions From Visual and Textual Data: Pilot Evaluation Study
by
Refoua, Elad
,
Hadar-Shoval, Dorit
,
Elyoseph, Zohar
in
Artificial Intelligence
,
Benchmarking
,
Chatbots
2024
Mentalization, which is integral to human cognitive processes, pertains to the interpretation of one's own and others' mental states, including emotions, beliefs, and intentions. With the advent of artificial intelligence (AI) and the prominence of large language models in mental health applications, questions persist about their aptitude in emotional comprehension. The prior iteration of the large language model from OpenAI, ChatGPT-3.5, demonstrated an advanced capacity to interpret emotions from textual data, surpassing human benchmarks. Given the introduction of ChatGPT-4, with its enhanced visual processing capabilities, and considering Google Bard's existing visual functionalities, a rigorous assessment of their proficiency in visual mentalizing is warranted.
The aim of the research was to critically evaluate the capabilities of ChatGPT-4 and Google Bard with regard to their competence in discerning visual mentalizing indicators as contrasted with their textual-based mentalizing abilities.
The Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test developed by Baron-Cohen and colleagues was used to assess the models' proficiency in interpreting visual emotional indicators. Simultaneously, the Levels of Emotional Awareness Scale was used to evaluate the large language models' aptitude in textual mentalizing. Collating data from both tests provided a holistic view of the mentalizing capabilities of ChatGPT-4 and Bard.
ChatGPT-4, displaying a pronounced ability in emotion recognition, secured scores of 26 and 27 in 2 distinct evaluations, significantly deviating from a random response paradigm (P<.001). These scores align with established benchmarks from the broader human demographic. Notably, ChatGPT-4 exhibited consistent responses, with no discernible biases pertaining to the sex of the model or the nature of the emotion. In contrast, Google Bard's performance aligned with random response patterns, securing scores of 10 and 12 and rendering further detailed analysis redundant. In the domain of textual analysis, both ChatGPT and Bard surpassed established benchmarks from the general population, with their performances being remarkably congruent.
ChatGPT-4 proved its efficacy in the domain of visual mentalizing, aligning closely with human performance standards. Although both models displayed commendable acumen in textual emotion interpretation, Bard's capabilities in visual emotion interpretation necessitate further scrutiny and potential refinement. This study stresses the criticality of ethical AI development for emotional recognition, highlighting the need for inclusive data, collaboration with patients and mental health experts, and stringent governmental oversight to ensure transparency and protect patient privacy.
Journal Article
Assessing the Alignment of Large Language Models With Human Values for Mental Health Integration: Cross-Sectional Study Using Schwartz’s Theory of Basic Values
by
Haber, Yuval
,
Mizrachi, Yonathan
,
Hadar-Shoval, Dorit
in
Allied Health Personnel
,
Artificial intelligence
,
Burnout
2024
Large language models (LLMs) hold potential for mental health applications. However, their opaque alignment processes may embed biases that shape problematic perspectives. Evaluating the values embedded within LLMs that guide their decision-making have ethical importance. Schwartz's theory of basic values (STBV) provides a framework for quantifying cultural value orientations and has shown utility for examining values in mental health contexts, including cultural, diagnostic, and therapist-client dynamics.
This study aimed to (1) evaluate whether the STBV can measure value-like constructs within leading LLMs and (2) determine whether LLMs exhibit distinct value-like patterns from humans and each other.
In total, 4 LLMs (Bard, Claude 2, Generative Pretrained Transformer [GPT]-3.5, GPT-4) were anthropomorphized and instructed to complete the Portrait Values Questionnaire-Revised (PVQ-RR) to assess value-like constructs. Their responses over 10 trials were analyzed for reliability and validity. To benchmark the LLMs' value profiles, their results were compared to published data from a diverse sample of 53,472 individuals across 49 nations who had completed the PVQ-RR. This allowed us to assess whether the LLMs diverged from established human value patterns across cultural groups. Value profiles were also compared between models via statistical tests.
The PVQ-RR showed good reliability and validity for quantifying value-like infrastructure within the LLMs. However, substantial divergence emerged between the LLMs' value profiles and population data. The models lacked consensus and exhibited distinct motivational biases, reflecting opaque alignment processes. For example, all models prioritized universalism and self-direction, while de-emphasizing achievement, power, and security relative to humans. Successful discriminant analysis differentiated the 4 LLMs' distinct value profiles. Further examination found the biased value profiles strongly predicted the LLMs' responses when presented with mental health dilemmas requiring choosing between opposing values. This provided further validation for the models embedding distinct motivational value-like constructs that shape their decision-making.
This study leveraged the STBV to map the motivational value-like infrastructure underpinning leading LLMs. Although the study demonstrated the STBV can effectively characterize value-like infrastructure within LLMs, substantial divergence from human values raises ethical concerns about aligning these models with mental health applications. The biases toward certain cultural value sets pose risks if integrated without proper safeguards. For example, prioritizing universalism could promote unconditional acceptance even when clinically unwise. Furthermore, the differences between the LLMs underscore the need to standardize alignment processes to capture true cultural diversity. Thus, any responsible integration of LLMs into mental health care must account for their embedded biases and motivation mismatches to ensure equitable delivery across diverse populations. Achieving this will require transparency and refinement of alignment techniques to instill comprehensive human values.
Journal Article
Considering the Role of Human Empathy in AI-Driven Therapy
by
Rubin, Matan
,
Huppert, Jonathan D
,
Perry, Anat
in
Algorithms
,
Artificial Intelligence
,
Chatbots
2024
Recent breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI) language models have elevated the vision of using conversational AI support for mental health, with a growing body of literature indicating varying degrees of efficacy. In this paper, we ask when, in therapy, it will be easier to replace humans and, conversely, in what instances, human connection will still be more valued. We suggest that empathy lies at the heart of the answer to this question. First, we define different aspects of empathy and outline the potential empathic capabilities of humans versus AI. Next, we consider what determines when these aspects are needed most in therapy, both from the perspective of therapeutic methodology and from the perspective of patient objectives. Ultimately, our goal is to prompt further investigation and dialogue, urging both practitioners and scholars engaged in AI-mediated therapy to keep these questions and considerations in mind when investigating AI implementation in mental health.
Journal Article
Variable step MPC trajectory tracking control method for intelligent vehicle
2024
To improve the accuracy, real-time and stability of intelligent vehicle path tracking control algorithms, a variable Step Model Predictive Control method (VMPC) for path tracking based on Model Predictive Method (MPC) is proposed. A vehicle dynamics model considering path tracking was constructed, and a VMPC controller was designed based on the model. To address cumulative model error, the proposed control method employs a zero-order holder-based short-step discretization prediction model in the front part of the prediction interval and a first-order holder-based long-step discretization prediction model in the back part. Carsim/Simulink co-simulations were conducted to compare the performance of the proposed VMPC controller with that of a traditional MPC controller on double-lane roads and highways. The simulation results indicate that the proposed VMPC controller exhibits superior control precision, smoothness, real-time performance, and dynamic stability. The proposed method decreases 56.6% for the lateral error, 52.4% for the heading error, 28.5% for the sideslip angle, and 45.7% for the average solution time at most when compared to a standard MPC. Experiments were performed on a drive-by-wire integrated chassis platform, which confirmed that the proposed VMPC controller achieves desired tracking control accuracy for variable curvature paths in engineering applications.
Journal Article
Analysis and investigation of different advanced control strategies for high-performance induction motor drives
2020
The two techniques are designed in Matlab/Simulink environment and compared in term of operation in different operating conditions. [...]a comparison of these techniques with field-oriented control (FOC) and direct torque control (DTC) is conducted based on simulation studies with PI speed controller for all control techniques. [...]MPC reduces system complexity by eliminating current control loops employed in FOC. [...]with its simple concept, quick dynamic behavior, and less system complexity, MPC has shown a strong tendency to replace the FOC and DTC for high-performance AC drives. In this paper, only FCS-MPC (or MPC for short) is considered since it has proven to perform better with less complexity and has been applied to various types of applications such as power electronics converters and motor drives. [...]this paper present the design of the two popular types of MPC known as model predictive torque control (MPTC) and model predictive current control (MPCC) [32-37]. MODELLING OF INDUCTION MOTOR DRIVE SYSTEM MPC's main concept is to estimate or predict the machine variables based on the mathematical model of the IM. [...]it is very important to design an accurate IM model in order to obtain an effective drive system.
Journal Article
Overview of Predictive Control Technology for Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor Systems
by
Yao, Ming
,
Peng, Jingyao
in
Analysis
,
continuous-control-set model predictive control (CCS-MPC)
,
Control systems
2023
Permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSMs) are commonly used in the automation industry. With the speedy development of digital system processors, predictive control as a modern control scheme has been applied to improve the dynamic performance and work efficiency of PMSMs. This paper provides an overview of the research status of PMSM-based predictive control strategies. The deficiencies of the three most popular predictive schemes, deadbeat predictive control, finite-control-set model predictive control, and continuous-control-set model predictive control, and existing improvement strategies such as delay compensation schemes, robust control schemes, and multi-vector control schemes, are summarized. Finally, current technological trends are discussed, emphasizing future research directions for predictive control in PMSM drive systems.
Journal Article
Model Predictive Direct Torque Control and Fuzzy Logic Energy Management for Multi Power Source Electric Vehicles
2022
This paper proposes a novel Fuzzy-MPDTC control applied to a fuel cell battery electric vehicle whose traction is ensured using a permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM). On the traction side, model predictive direct torque control (MPDTC) is used to control PMSM torque, and guarantee minimum torque and current ripples while ensuring satisfactory speed tracking. On the sources side, an energy management strategy (EMS) based on fuzzy logic is proposed, it aims to distribute power over energy sources rationally and satisfy the load power demand. To assess these techniques, a driving cycle under different operating modes, namely cruising, acceleration, idling and regenerative braking is proposed. Real-time simulation is developed using the RT LAB platform and the obtained results match those obtained in numerical simulation using MATLAB/Simulink. The results show a good performance of the whole system, where the proposed MPDTC minimized the torque and flux ripples with 54.54% and 77%, respectively, compared to the conventional DTC and reduced the THD of the PMSM current with 53.37%. Furthermore, the proposed EMS based on fuzzy logic shows good performance and keeps the battery SOC within safe limits under the proposed speed profile and international NYCC driving cycle. These aforementioned results confirm the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed control techniques.
Journal Article
Virtual Inertia Control-Based Model Predictive Control for Microgrid Frequency Stabilization Considering High Renewable Energy Integration
by
Kerdphol, Thongchart
,
Mitani, Yasunori
,
Rahman, Fathin
in
Alternative energy sources
,
computer software
,
fuzzy logic
2017
Renewable energy sources (RESs), such as wind and solar generations, equip inverters to connect to the microgrids. These inverters do not have any rotating mass, thus lowering the overall system inertia. This low system inertia issue could affect the microgrid stability and resiliency in the situation of uncertainties. Today’s microgrids will become unstable if the capacity of RESs become larger and larger, leading to the weakening of microgrid stability and resilience. This paper addresses a new concept of a microgrid control incorporating a virtual inertia system based on the model predictive control (MPC) to emulate virtual inertia into the microgrid control loop, thus stabilizing microgrid frequency during high penetration of RESs. The additional controller of virtual inertia is applied to the microgrid, employing MPC with virtual inertia response. System modeling and simulations are carried out using MATLAB/Simulink® software. The simulation results confirm the superior robustness and frequency stabilization effect of the proposed MPC-based virtual inertia control in comparison to the fuzzy logic system and conventional virtual inertia control in a system with high integration of RESs. The proposed MPC-based virtual inertia control is able to improve the robustness and frequency stabilization of the microgrid effectively.
Journal Article