Explore the vast range of titles available.

Under unbalanced grid conditions, the DC side voltage of pulse width modulation (PWM) rectifier will overshoot during start-up and reference voltage transients, which may lead to system instability. In this paper, a deadbeat predictive power control (DPPC) with fuzzy PI compound controller (FPCC) and power predictive corrector (PPC) is proposed to solve that problem. Firstly, the parameters of the PI controller are adjusted online by the fuzzy control rule of the FPCC to eliminate the overshoot of the DC side voltage and contribute to faster dynamic responses, which thereby could correct the reference active power. Secondly, the static error between the reference and system active powers is reduced by accumulative predictive errors in the PPC. The simulation is carried out under ideal and unbalanced grid conditions. The result shows that the proposed control scheme can effectively eliminate the overshoot of DC voltage, reduce the static error of active power, and improve the dynamic response and anti-interference ability of the rectifier.

Purpose Partial least squares (PLS) has been introduced as a “causal-predictive” approach to structural equation modeling (SEM), designed to overcome the apparent dichotomy between explanation and prediction. However, while researchers using PLS-SEM routinely stress the predictive nature of their analyses, model evaluation assessment relies exclusively on metrics designed to assess the path model’s explanatory power. Recent research has proposed PLSpredict, a holdout sample-based procedure that generates case-level predictions on an item or a construct level. This paper offers guidelines for applying PLSpredict and explains the key choices researchers need to make using the procedure. Design/methodology/approach The authors discuss the need for prediction-oriented model evaluations in PLS-SEM and conceptually explain and further advance the PLSpredict method. In addition, they illustrate the PLSpredict procedure’s use with a tourism marketing model and provide recommendations on how the results should be interpreted. While the focus of the paper is on the PLSpredict procedure, the overarching aim is to encourage the routine prediction-oriented assessment in PLS-SEM analyses. Findings The paper advances PLSpredict and offers guidance on how to use this prediction-oriented model evaluation approach. Researchers should routinely consider the assessment of the predictive power of their PLS path models. PLSpredict is a useful and straightforward approach to evaluate the out-of-sample predictive capabilities of PLS path models that researchers can apply in their studies. Research limitations/implications Future research should seek to extend PLSpredict’s capabilities, for example, by developing more benchmarks for comparing PLS-SEM results and empirically contrasting the earliest antecedent and the direct antecedent approaches to predictive power assessment. Practical implications This paper offers clear guidelines for using PLSpredict, which researchers and practitioners should routinely apply as part of their PLS-SEM analyses. Originality/value This research substantiates the use of PLSpredict. It provides marketing researchers and practitioners with the knowledge they need to properly assess, report and interpret PLS-SEM results. Thereby, this research contributes to safeguarding the rigor of marketing studies using PLS-SEM.

1. Habitat selection models usually assume that the spatial distributions of animals depend positively on the distributions of resources and negatively on interference. However, the presence of conspecifics at a given location also signals safety and the availability of resources. This may induce followers to select contiguous patches and causes animals to cluster. Resource availability, interference and attraction therefore jointly lead to self-organized patterns in foraging animals. 2. We analyse the distribution of foraging shorebirds at landscape level on the basis of a resource-based model to establish, albeit indirectly, the importance of conspecific attraction and interference. 3. At 23 intertidal sites with a mean area of 170 ha spread out over the Dutch Wadden Sea, the spatial distribution of six abundant shorebird species was determined. The location of individuals and groups was mapped using a simple method based on projective geometry, enabling fast mapping of low-tide foraging shorebird distributions. We analysed the suitability of these 23 sites in terms of food availability and travel distances to high tide roosts. 4. We introduce an interference sensitivity scale which maps interference as a function of inter-individual distance. We thus obtain interference-insensitive species, which are only sensitive to interference at short inter-individual distances (and may thus pack densely) and interference-sensitive species which interfere over greater inter-individual distances (and thus form sparse flocks). 5. We found that interference-insensitive species like red knot (Calidris canutus) and dunlins (Calidris alpina) are more clustered than predicted by the spatial distribution of their food resources. This suggests that these species follow each other when selecting foraging patches. In contrast, curlew (Numenius arquata) and grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), known to be sensitive to interference, form sparse flocks. Hence, resource-based models have better predictive power for interference-sensitive species than for interference-insensitive species. 6. It follows from our analysis that monitoring programmes, habitat selection models and statistical analyses should also consider the mechanisms of self-organization.

A large array of species distribution model (SDM) approaches has been developed for explaining and predicting the occurrences of individual species or species assemblages. Given the wealth of existing models, it is unclear which models perform best for interpolation or extrapolation of existing data sets, particularly when one is concerned with species assemblages. We compared the predictive performance of 33 variants of 15 widely applied and recently emerged SDMs in the context of multispecies data, including both joint SDMs that model multiple species together, and stacked SDMs that model each species individually combining the predictions afterward. We offer a comprehensive evaluation of these SDM approaches by examining their performance in predicting withheld empirical validation data of different sizes representing five different taxonomic groups, and for prediction tasks related to both interpolation and extrapolation. We measure predictive performance by 12 measures of accuracy, discrimination power, calibration, and precision of predictions, for the biological levels of species occurrence, species richness, and community composition. Our results show large variation among the models in their predictive performance, especially for communities comprising many species that are rare. The results do not reveal any major trade‐offs among measures of model performance; the same models performed generally well in terms of accuracy, discrimination, and calibration, and for the biological levels of individual species, species richness, and community composition. In contrast, the models that gave the most precise predictions were not well calibrated, suggesting that poorly performing models can make overconfident predictions. However, none of the models performed well for all prediction tasks. As a general strategy, we therefore propose that researchers fit a small set of models showing complementary performance, and then apply a cross‐validation procedure involving separate data to establish which of these models performs best for the goal of the study.

Purpose This study aims to propose guidelines for the joint use of partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to combine symmetric and asymmetric perspectives in model evaluation, in the hospitality and tourism field. Design/methodology/approach This study discusses PLS-SEM as a symmetric approach and fsQCA as an asymmetric approach to analyze structural and configurational models. It presents guidelines to conduct an fsQCA based on latent construct scores drawn from PLS-SEM, to assess how configurations of exogenous constructs produce a specific outcome in an endogenous construct. Findings This research highlights the advantages of combining PLS-SEM and fsQCA to analyze the causal effects of antecedents (i.e., exogenous constructs) on outcomes (i.e., endogenous constructs). The construct scores extracted from the PLS-SEM analysis of a nomological network of constructs provide accurate input for performing fsQCA to identify the sufficient configurations required to predict the outcome(s). Complementing the assessment of the model’s explanatory and predictive power, the fsQCA generates more fine-grained insights into variable relationships, thereby offering the means to reach better managerial conclusions. Originality/value The application of PLS-SEM and fsQCA as separate prediction-oriented methods has increased notably in recent years. However, in the absence of clear guidelines, studies applied the methods inconsistently, giving researchers little direction on how to best apply PLS-SEM and fsQCA in tandem. To address this concern, this study provides guidelines for the joint use of PLS-SEM and fsQCA.

Statistical modeling is a powerful tool for developing and testing theories by way of causal explanation, prediction, and description. In many disciplines there is near-exclusive use of statistical modeling for causal explanation and the assumption that models with high explanatory power are inherently of high predictive power. Conflation between explanation and prediction is common, yet the distinction must be understood for progressing scientific knowledge. While this distinction has been recognized in the philosophy of science, the statistical literature lacks a thorough discussion of the many differences that arise in the process of modeling for an explanatory versus a predictive goal. The purpose of this article is to clarify the distinction between explanatory and predictive modeling, to discuss its sources, and to reveal the practical implications of the distinction to each step in the modeling process.

Executioner-caspase activation has been considered a point-of-no-return in apoptosis. However, numerous studies report survival from caspase activation after treatment with drugs or radiation. An open question is whether cells can recover from direct caspase activation without pro-survival stress responses induced by drugs. To address this question, we engineered a HeLa cell line to express caspase-3 inducibly and combined it with a quantitative caspase activity reporter. While high caspase activity levels killed all cells and very low levels allowed all cells to live, doses of caspase activity sufficient to kill 15 to 30% of cells nevertheless allowed 70 to 85% to survive. At these doses, neither the rate, nor the peak level, nor the total amount of caspase activity could accurately predict cell death versus survival. Thus, cells can survive direct executioner-caspase activation, and variations in cellular state modify the outcome of potentially lethal caspase activity. Such heterogeneities may underlie incomplete tumor cell killing in response to apoptosis-inducing cancer treatments.

Finite element (FE) model studies have made important contributions to our understanding of functional biomechanics of the lumbar spine. However, if a model is used to answer clinical and biomechanical questions over a certain population, their inherently large inter-subject variability has to be considered. Current FE model studies, however, generally account only for a single distinct spinal geometry with one set of material properties. This raises questions concerning their predictive power, their range of results and on their agreement with in vitro and in vivo values. Eight well-established FE models of the lumbar spine (L1-5) of different research centers around the globe were subjected to pure and combined loading modes and compared to in vitro and in vivo measurements for intervertebral rotations, disc pressures and facet joint forces. Under pure moment loading, the predicted L1-5 rotations of almost all models fell within the reported in vitro ranges, and their median values differed on average by only 2° for flexion-extension, 1° for lateral bending and 5° for axial rotation. Predicted median facet joint forces and disc pressures were also in good agreement with published median in vitro values. However, the ranges of predictions were larger and exceeded those reported in vitro, especially for the facet joint forces. For all combined loading modes, except for flexion, predicted median segmental intervertebral rotations and disc pressures were in good agreement with measured in vivo values. In light of high inter-subject variability, the generalization of results of a single model to a population remains a concern. This study demonstrated that the pooled median of individual model results, similar to a probabilistic approach, can be used as an improved predictive tool in order to estimate the response of the lumbar spine.

This paper presents a brief overview of the recent literature on adaptive design of clinical trials from a Bayesian perspective for statistically not so sophisticated readers. Adaptive designs are attracting a keen interest in several disciplines, from a theoretical viewpoint and also—potentially—from a practical one, and Bayesian adaptive designs, in particular, have raised high expectations in clinical trials. The main conceptual tools are highlighted here, with a mention of several trial designs proposed in the literature that use these methods, including some of the registered Bayesian adaptive trials to this date. This review aims at complementing the existing ones on this topic, pointing at further interesting reading material.

Large-n studies of conflict have produced a large number of statistically significant results but little accurate guidance in terms of anticipating the onset of conflict. The authors argue that too much attention has been paid to finding statistically significant relationships, while too little attention has been paid to finding variables that improve our ability to predict civil wars. The result can be a distorted view of what matters most to the onset of conflict. Although these models may not be intended to be predictive models, prescriptions based on these models are generally based on statistical significance, and the predictive attributes of the underlying models are generally ignored. These predictions should not be ignored, but rather need to be heuristically evaluated because they may shed light on the veracity of the models. In this study, the authors conduct a side-by-side comparison of the statistical significance and predictive power of the different variables used in two of the most influential models of civil war. The results provide a clear demonstration of how potentially misleading the traditional focus on statistical significance can be. Until out-of-sample heuristics — especially including predictions — are part of the normal evaluative tools in conflict research, we are unlikely to make sufficient theoretical progress beyond broad statements that point to GDP per capita and population as the major causal factors accounting for civil war onset.