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Since 1952, the primary election in a small, not very diverse New England state has had a disproportionate impact on the U.S. presidential nomination process and the ensuing general election. Although just a handful of delegates are at stake, the New Hampshire primary has become a massive media event and a reasonably reliable predictor of a campaign’s ultimate success or failure. In The First Primary, Moore and Smith offer a comprehensive history of the state’s primary, an analysis of its media coverage and impact, and a description of the New Hampshire electorate, along with a discussion of how that electorate reflects or diverges from national opinions on candidates and issues. A book for political scientists and political junkies, media and policy professionals, and all students of American government, The First Primary ably fills the gaps in our understanding of New Hampshire’s outsize role in the nomination process.

The economy is so powerful in determining the results of U.S. presidential elections that political scientists can predict winners and losers with amazing accuracy long before the campaigns start. But if it is true that \"it's the economy, Stupid,\" why do incumbents in good economies sometimes lose? The reason, Lynn Vavreck argues, is that what matters is not just the state of the economy but how candidates react to it. By demonstrating more precisely than ever before how candidates and their campaigns affect the economic vote,The Message Mattersprovides a powerful new way of understanding past elections--and predicting future ones. Vavreck examines the past sixty years of presidential elections and offers a new theory of campaigns that explains why electoral victory requires more than simply being the candidate favored by prevailing economic conditions. Using data from presidential elections since 1952, she reveals why, when, and how campaign messages make a difference--and when they can outweigh economic predictors of election outcomes. The Message Mattersdoes more than show why candidates favored by the economy must build their campaigns around economic messages. Vavreck's theory also explains why candidates disadvantaged by the economy must try to focus their elections on noneconomic issues that meet exacting criteria--and why this is so hard to do.

Election 2012 has already begun. In fact, it's in full gear. To no one's surprise, President Barack Obama in early April formed his reelection committee, which will allow his campaign to begin raising money for what is expected to be the most expensive presidential campaign in American history. His reelection, though, is by no means a sure thing -- thanks in large part to the state of the U.S. economy. With the U.S. unemployment rate hovering around nine percent, the national average price of gas approaching four dollars per gallon, and the housing market nationwide continuing to fall, Republicans are preparing for a presidential election that they hope will be a referendum on President Obama and his economic policies. A recent USA Today/Gallup poll should not give \"Obama for America\" (OFA) much comfort: Only 37 percent approve of the president's handling of the economy. With that as a backdrop, eight Republicans have already declared their candidacies for the Republican nomination -- sensing a real opportunity to make Barack Obama a one-term president. The White House, of course, has taken notice of the polls and the competition. And it has readily acknowledged that the electoral map that won Obama the Oval Office in 2008 will be strikingly different in 2012. What follows is an evaluation of the Republican field for the nomination, who the White House fears most, and what will likely be the path to the presidency for the 2012 Republican nominee. Adapted from the source document.

In the northern hardwood forest, growth of vernal photosynthetic herbs is temporally restricted to the period between spring snowmelt and summer canopy development. This characteristic suggests that several unique adaptations exist which allow the species to complete their life cycles, and that temporal separation of production in the herbaceous layer may add to structural and functional complexity of the ecosystem. Erythronium americanum Ker. (Liliaceae) was examined in central New Hampshire with respect to its natural history, growth characteristics and influence on energy flow and mineral cycling in the deciduous forest ecosystem. Growth leading to the early spring development of photosynthetic tissue begins with fall root growth and continues through a long winter phase during which the shoot elongates from the perennating organ, through the soil and into the snowpack. Following snowmelt, the shoots begin rapid unfurling and maturation of the photosynthetic tissue. The length of the mature leaf phase is controlled by the timing of snowmelt and canopy development, and may be quite variable between successive years. During the short period of production, total biomass increased by 190% in 1972 and 338% in 1973; however, plant weight at the end of the winter period in 1973 had decreased to 28% of the spring 1972 maximum. In the annual energy cycle, biomass losses during the nonphotosynthetic period may amount to more than production during the preceding spring. In comparison with summer green herbs, Erythronium shoot tissue contained significantly higher concentrations of N but lower levels of K, Mg and Ca, suggesting that the spring adaptation may be oriented toward higher N levels of the soil during the spring period as well as higher light levels at the forest floor. Significant correlations of biomass of vernal photosynthetic herbs with summer green species imply that temporally separated species may utilize the same physical site and resources. This adds to the structural complexity and production of the herbaceous layer; however, the vernal photosynthetics account for only 0.5% of total aboveground primary production of the ecosystem. The temporal character of Erythronium's growth and its capacity for rapid biomass accumulation combine to make it a significant factor in nutrient dynamics in the deciduous forest. Uptake of N and K during spring flushing of nutrients from the ecosystem and later release through senescence of shoot tissue appear to reduce gross ecosystem losses of these elements.

The best way to get to New Hampshire from New York is to fly to Boston, particularly if you have reservations about hopping onto the tiny commuter planes that serve Manchester. From La Guardia the Delta Shuttle leaves every hour on the half-hour and the US Airways shuttle on the hour; each will land you at Logan International Airport within the hour and has discounted fares that last through most of the weekend. From there, a car, which will be easier to rent in Boston than in New Hampshire these next few weeks, will get you to the state border within the hour on either Interstate 95 or Interstate 93, depending on where you want to start. As for accommodations, stick to the Concord-Manchester-Nashua triangle if you can. There are nicer cities and towns in New Hampshire -- Portsmouth, on the coast, or Hanover, where Dartmouth College is -- but the triangle is where most of the campaigning takes place. (The best hotel here is without a doubt the Bedford Village Inn, whose spacious rooms include fireplaces and Jacuzzis, but expect heavy competition from the journalistic regulars on expense accounts who have booked suites here years in advance.) The Marriott in Nashua and the Center of New Hampshire Holiday Inn in Manchester are more than adequate, as are the Fairfield Inn and the Comfort Inn in Concord. Bill Clinton had no complaints about setting up camp near the airport in Manchester in a musty old Days Inn that smelled of chlorine in January 1992, and look where he ended up. From here, walk across the square to the second floor of the Tuck Library of the New Hampshire Historical Society at 30 Park Street for ''First in the Nation,'' an exhibition organized by the New Hampshire Photojournalists Association, with a roomful of pictures taken by New Hampshire photographers who have captured some of the best-known moments in the state's political history. The first is probably the most familiar: the photograph of Senator Edmund S. Muskie, standing on a flatbed truck in front of the Manchester headquarters of The Union Leader, denouncing the newspaper for attacking his wife, Jane. This was the moment in the snow where some journalists described Mr. Muskie as breaking down in tears, though not, interestingly, in the article that appeared in the anti-Muskie Manchester Union Leader the next day, which can be read back in the museum.

\"Many people agreed that the contest had already transformed the nation. For the first time, a woman and a black man were viable candidates for the presidency.\" (Junior Scholastic) Read more about the success of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on the 2008 campaign trail.