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One-dimensional empirical measures, order statistics, and Kantorovich transport distances
This work is devoted to the study of rates of convergence of the empirical measures \\mu_{n} = \\frac {1}{n} \\sum_{k=1}^n \\delta_{X_k}, n \\geq 1, over a sample (X_{k})_{k \\geq 1} of independent identically distributed real-valued random variables towards the common distribution \\mu in Kantorovich transport distances W_p. The focus is on finite range bounds on the expected Kantorovich distances \\mathbb{E}(W_{p}(\\mu_{n},\\mu )) or \\big [ \\mathbb{E}(W_{p}^p(\\mu_{n},\\mu )) \\big ]^1/p in terms of moments and analytic conditions on the measure \\mu and its distribution function. The study describes a variety of rates, from the standard one \\frac {1}{\\sqrt n} to slower rates, and both lower and upper-bounds on \\mathbb{E}(W_{p}(\\mu_{n},\\mu )) for fixed n in various instances. Order statistics, reduction to uniform samples and analysis of beta distributions, inverse distribution functions, log-concavity are main tools in the investigation. Two detailed appendices collect classical and some new facts on inverse distribution functions and beta distributions and their densities necessary to the investigation.
eBook
The Pseudo-Marginal Approach for Efficient Monte Carlo Computations
We introduce a powerful and flexible MCMC algorithm for stochastic simulation. The method builds on a pseudo-marginal method originally introduced in [Genetics 164 (2003) 1139-1160], showing how algorithms which are approximations to an idealized marginal algorithm, can share the same marginal stationary distribution as the idealized method. Theoretical results are given describing the convergence properties of the proposed method, and simple numerical examples are given to illustrate the promising empirical characteristics of the technique. Interesting comparisons with a more obvious, but inexact, Monte Carlo approximation to the marginal algorithm, are also given.
Journal Article
Nilspace Factors for General Uniformity Seminorms, Cubic Exchangeability and Limits
We study a class of measure-theoretic objects that we call
eBook
Chance in the world : a Humean guide to objective chance
Whether something happens randomly, by chance; or from a series of events.
Book
Robust Solutions of Optimization Problems Affected by Uncertain Probabilities
In this paper we focus on robust linear optimization problems with uncertainty regions defined by
φ
-divergences (for example, chi-squared, Hellinger, Kullback-Leibler). We show how uncertainty regions based on
φ
-divergences arise in a natural way as confidence sets if the uncertain parameters contain elements of a probability vector. Such problems frequently occur in, for example, optimization problems in inventory control or finance that involve terms containing moments of random variables, expected utility, etc. We show that the robust counterpart of a linear optimization problem with
φ
-divergence uncertainty is tractable for most of the choices of
φ
typically considered in the literature. We extend the results to problems that are nonlinear in the optimization variables. Several applications, including an asset pricing example and a numerical multi-item newsvendor example, illustrate the relevance of the proposed approach.
This paper was accepted by Gérard P. Cachon, optimization.
Journal Article