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Contains the papers presented at the 27th European Society of Computer-Aided Process Engineering (ESCAPE) Event held in Barcelona, from 1st-5th October 2017.

The 24th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering creates an international forum where scientific and industrial contributions of computer-aided techniques are presented with applications in process modeling and simulation, process synthesis and design, operation, and process optimization. The organizers have broadened the boundaries of Process Systems Engineering by inviting contributions at different scales of modeling and demonstrating vertical and horizontal integration. Contributions range from applications at the molecular level to the strategic level of the supply chain and sustainable development. They cover major classical themes, at the same time exploring a new range of applications that address the production of renewable forms of energy, environmental footprints and sustainable use of resources and water.

30th European Symposium on Computer Aided Chemical Engineering, Volume 47 contains the papers presented at the 30th European Symposium of Computer Aided Process Engineering (ESCAPE) event held in Milan, Italy, May 24-27, 2020. It is a valuable resource for chemical engineers, chemical process engineers, researchers in industry and academia, students, and consultants for chemical industries.

Techniques such as neural networks, fuzzy logic and expert systems are a key tool for researchers and engineers requiring powerful solutions to a wide range of problems. The e-book presents practical examples of real cases where these techniques have been successfully applied.

The European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering (ESCAPE) series presents the latest innovations and achievements of leading professionals from the industrial and academic communities. The ESCAPE series serves as a forum for engineers, scientists, researchers, managers and students to present and discuss progress being made in the area of computer aided process engineering (CAPE). European industries large and small are bringing innovations into our lives, whether in the form of new technologies to address environmental problems, new products to make our homes more comfortable and energy efficient or new therapies to improve the health and well being of European citizens. Moreover, the European Industry needs to undertake research and technological initiatives in response to humanity's \"Grand Challenges,\" described in the declaration of Lund, namely, Global Warming, Tightening Supplies of Energy, Water and Food, Ageing Societies, Public Health, Pandemics and Security. Thus, the Technical Theme of ESCAPE 21 will be \"Process Systems Approaches for Addressing Grand Challenges in Energy, Environment, Health, Bioprocessing Nanotechnologies.\"

With the increase in the amount of data captured during the manufacturing process, monitoring systems are becoming important factors in decision making for management. Current technologies such as Internet of Things (IoT)-based sensors can be considered a solution to provide efficient monitoring of the manufacturing process. In this study, a real-time monitoring system that utilizes IoT-based sensors, big data processing, and a hybrid prediction model is proposed. Firstly, an IoT-based sensor that collects temperature, humidity, accelerometer, and gyroscope data was developed. The characteristics of IoT-generated sensor data from the manufacturing process are: real-time, large amounts, and unstructured type. The proposed big data processing platform utilizes Apache Kafka as a message queue, Apache Storm as a real-time processing engine and MongoDB to store the sensor data from the manufacturing process. Secondly, for the proposed hybrid prediction model, Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN)-based outlier detection and Random Forest classification were used to remove outlier sensor data and provide fault detection during the manufacturing process, respectively. The proposed model was evaluated and tested at an automotive manufacturing assembly line in Korea. The results showed that IoT-based sensors and the proposed big data processing system are sufficiently efficient to monitor the manufacturing process. Furthermore, the proposed hybrid prediction model has better fault prediction accuracy than other models given the sensor data as input. The proposed system is expected to support management by improving decision-making and will help prevent unexpected losses caused by faults during the manufacturing process.

In recent years, a considerable amount of effort has been devoted, both in industry and academia, towards the development of advanced methods of control theory with focus on its practical implementation in various fields of human activity such as space control, robotics, control applications in marine systems, control processes in agriculture and food production. Control Systems: Theory and Applications consists of selected best papers which were presented at XXIV International conference on automatic control “Automatics 2017” (September 13–15, 2017, Kyiv, Ukraine) organized by Ukrainian Association on Automatic Control (National member organization of IFAC – International Federation on Automatic Control) and National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine. More than 120 presentations where discussed at the conference, with participation of the scientists from the numerous countries. The book is divided into two main parts, a first on Theory of Automatic Control (5 chapters) and the second on Control Systems Applications (8 chapters). The selected chapters provide an overview of challenges in the area of control systems design, modeling, engineering and implementation and the approaches and techniques that relevant research groups within this area are employing to try to resolve these. This book on advanced methods of control theory and successful cases in the practical implementation is ideal for personnel in modern technological processes automation and SCADA systems, robotics, space and marine industries as well as academic staff and master/research students in computerized control systems, automatized and computer-integrated systems, electrical and mechanical engineering.

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Monitoring specific chemical properties is the key to chemical process control. Today, mainly optical online methods are applied, which require time- and cost-intensive calibration effort. NMR spectroscopy, with its advantage being a direct comparison method without need for calibration, has a high potential for enabling closed-loop process control while exhibiting short set-up times. Compact NMR instruments make NMR spectroscopy accessible in industrial and rough environments for process monitoring and advanced process control strategies. We present a fully automated data analysis approach which is completely based on physically motivated spectral models as first principles information (indirect hard modeling—IHM) and applied it to a given pharmaceutical lithiation reaction in the framework of the European Union’s Horizon 2020 project CONSENS. Online low-field NMR (LF NMR) data was analyzed by IHM with low calibration effort, compared to a multivariate PLS-R (partial least squares regression) approach, and both validated using online high-field NMR (HF NMR) spectroscopy.