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Economic development in provincial China : the central Shaanxi since 1930
The economic development of Central Shaanxi province from 1930 until today illustrates the effects of famine, war, & construction under Chinese communism. It portrays the growing pains of a frontier economy & discusses the natural barriers to agricultural expansion. An extensive economic survey of counties in hill & plain areas based on data from local governments & the author's own observation shows great regional differences, in the past as well as the present.
Book
Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure
Has rising import competition contributed to the polarization of US politics? Analyzing multiple measures of political expression and results of congressional and presidential elections spanning the period 2000 through 2016, we find strong though not definitive evidence of an ideological realignment in trade-exposed local labor markets that commences prior to the divisive 2016 US presidential election. Exploiting the exogenous component of rising import competition by China, we find that trade exposed electoral districts simultaneously exhibit growing ideological polarization in some domains, meaning expanding support for both strong-left and strong-right views, and pure rightward shifts in others. Specifically, trade-impacted commuting zones or districts saw an increasing market share for the Fox News channel (a rightward shift), stronger ideological polarization in campaign contributions (a polarized shift), and a relative rise in the likelihood of electing a Republican to Congress (a rightward shift). Trade-exposed counties with an initial majority White population became more likely to elect a GOP conservative, while trade-exposed counties with an initial majority-minority population became more likely to elect a liberal Democrat, where in both sets of counties, these gains came at the expense of moderate Democrats (a polarized shift). In presidential elections, counties with greater trade exposure shifted toward the Republican candidate (a rightward shift). These results broadly support an emerging political economy literature that connects adverse economic shocks to sharp ideological realignments that cleave along racial and ethnic lines and induce discrete shifts in political preferences and economic policy.
Journal Article
Are collective political actions and private political actions substitutes or complements? Empirical evidence from China's private sector
This paper examines the circumstances under which collective and private corporate political actions are more likely to be substitutes or complements. Using data based on a series of nationwide surveys conducted on privately owned firms in China, I find that firms that are engaged in collective political actions are more likely to pursue private political actions. This positive relationship is stronger in less economically developed provinces and when there are greater opportunities for the state to redistribute economic resources in product and capital markets. Meanwhile, this relationship is weaker in the presence of heavier regulatory burdens and for firms in which the state has some equity or owned by individuals who had prior political careers. These findings contribute to the corporate political action literature.
Journal Article
Do Credit Market Shocks Affect the Real Economy? Quasi-experimental Evidence from the Great Recession and “Normal” Economic Times
Using comprehensive data on bank lending and establishment-level outcomes from 1997–2010, this paper finds that small business lending is an unimportant determinant of small business and overall economic activity. A shift-share style research design is implemented to predict county-level lending shocks using variation in preexisting bank market shares and bank supply shifts. Counties with negative predicted lending shocks experienced declines in small business loan originations, indicating that it is costly to switch lenders. However, small business loan originations have an economically insignificant and generally statistically insignificant impact on both small firm and overall employment during the Great Recession and normal times.
Journal Article
The long-run effects of teacher strikes
We exploit cross-cohort variation in the prevalence of teacher strikes within and across provinces in Argentina to examine how teacher strikes affect student long-run outcomes. Being exposed to the average incidence of strikes during primary school reduces labor earnings of males and females by 3.2% and 1.9%, respectively. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that this amounts to an aggregate annual earnings loss of $2.34 billion. We also find an increase in unemployment and a decline in the skill levels of the occupations into which students sort. These effects are driven, at least in part, by a reduction in educational attainment.
Journal Article
The Adoption and Impact of Soil and Water Conservation Technology: An Endogenous Switching Regression Application
This paper identifies the factors that affect farmers' decisions to adopt soil and water conservation technology in Africa and how this technology impacts farm yields and net returns. This technology is important because it improves efficiency of water use from rainfall—a critical issue in waterdeficient Sub-Saharan Africa. An analysis of new data from a survey of 342 rice farmers in northern Ghana shows that farmers' education, capital and labor constraints, social networks and extension contacts, and farm soil conditions mainly determine adoption of field ridging, and the adoption of this technology increases rice yields and net returns significantly.
Journal Article
Do men and women respond differently to competition?
This paper provides new evidence of gender differences in response to increased competition, focusing on important life tasks performed in a regular social environment. The analysis takes advantage of a major education reform in Ontario that exogenously increased competition for university grades. Comparing students prereform and postreform using rich administrative data, I find that male average grades and the proportion of male students graduating “on time” increased relative to females. Further, the evidence indicates that these changes were due to increased relative effort rather than self-selection. The findings have implications for the delivery of education and incentive provision more generally.
Journal Article
Measuring resilience to economic shocks: an application to Spain
In this paper, we evaluate Spanish regions’ resistance to the economic crisis under three main resilience notions: “adaptative,” “engineering” and “ecological.” “Adaptative” resilience is measured through a traditional shift-share approach applied to employment, whereas “engineering” and “ecological” resilience pay attention to growth path and total employment level, in the pre- and post-crisis period. The paper presents an application of the different notion of resilience to the case of Spanish provinces in the last years. We find that provinces with sectoral structure and location advantages, or those with locational advantages in the post-crisis period (according to the “adaptative” resilience measure), exhibit a significantly lower “drop” in growth (according to the “engineering” and “ecological” resilience measure). Furthermore, we conclude that the probability of presenting a better behavior (lower “drop” in growth than the average) increases for those regions specialized in the service sector before the crisis. As expected, the worse behavior has correspond to those regions specialized in the pre-crisis period in the construction sector.
Journal Article