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Ukraine's Trade Policy identifies the key drivers of Ukraine's recent trade performance, assesses current trade policies, and proposes recommendations to strengthen the Ukraine’s trade integration strategy. It also identifies core bottlenecks in the ongoing integration processes, including global and regional integration. The study concludes that the main obstacles to furthering Ukraine’s trade integration are domestic, and relate to deficiencies in the business environment. Problems in customs administration, standardization, and administrative barriers for new entry require immediate attention. The report highlights specific policy issues that hamper WTO accession, such as trade legislation, protection of intellectual property rights, government support for specific industries, and export restrictions. It also recommends improvements in the structure of Ukraine’s import tariffs, reform of both the regime of free economic zones and mechanism of VAT refund, and investment in a major upgrade of government capacity for investment and export promotion. The report also draws attention to the importance of the post-WTO accession agenda for Ukraine. To take advantage of WTO membership, the Government will need to undertake significant institutional reforms to implement WTO regulatory rules in ways that facilitate integration into the world economy and provide benefits to private sector participants.

With ever-increasing political tensions between China and Russia on one side and the EU and the US on the other, it only seems a matter of time until protectionist policies cause a decoupling of global value chains. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium trade model calibrated with the latest version of the GTAP database to simulate the effect of such a decoupling–implemented by doubling non-tariff barriers–between the two blocks on trade and welfare. Imposing import barriers almost completely eliminates bilateral imports. In addition, changes in price levels lead to higher imports and lower exports of the imposing country group from and to the rest of the world. The targeted country group increases exports to the rest of the world and reduces imports. Welfare falls in all countries involved, suggesting that governments should strive to cooperate rather than turn away from each other. By imposing a trade war on Russia, the political West could inflict severe damage on the Russian economy because of the latter’s smaller relative economic size.

The world economy has recently navigated through the pandemic caused by the coronavirus. Almost all the affected countries have responded with stringency measures to control the pandemic. However, these restrictions appear to have critically impacted the global supply chain and cross-border movement of goods. In this regard, we attempt to investigate the impact of pandemic-related stringency measures on India’s import demand. For this purpose, we use bilateral monthly import data of India with its major trading counterparts. Our findings suggest that stringency measures have a positive impact on imports, indicating that the economy relies more on imported items when its domestic production and supply chain are disrupted by the pandemic-related restrictions. Conversely, the import origin countries’ restrictions have a negative impact on Indian imports, indicating that these restrictions have adversely affected the production and supply chain in origin countries, thereby reducing the overall flow of imports to India. We also find that economic policy uncertainty of home and product origin countries has a negative impact on Indian imports. Our results also confirm that the pandemic-related restrictions and different types of uncertainty have an asymmetric effect on imports.

Rare earth elements (REEs) have become increasingly important because of their relative scarcity and worldwide increasing demand, as well as China's quasi-monopoly of this market. REEs are virtually not substitutable, and they are essential for a variety of hightech products and modern key technologies. This has raised serious concerns that China will misuse its dominant position to set export quotas in order to maximize its own profits at the expense of other rare earth user industries (wealth transfer motive). In fact, export restrictions on REEs were the catalyst for the U.S. to lodge a formal complaint against China in 2012 at the World Trade Organization (WTO). This paper analyzes possible wealth transfer effects by focusing on export quota announcements (the so-called MOFCOM announcements) by China, and the share price reactions of Chinese REE suppliers, the U.S. REE users, and the rest of the world REE refiners. Overall, we find limited support for the view of a wealth transfer in connection with MOFCOM announcements only when disentangling events prior to and post the initiation of the WTO trial, consistent with the trial triggering changes to China's REE policy and recent announcement to abolish quotas. We do find, however, that extreme REE price movements have a first-order effect on all companies in the REE industry consistent with recent market trends to enable hedging against REE price volatility.

As tariffs have fallen worldwide, the increasing importance of non-tariff policies for further trade liberalization has become widely recognized. The methods for assessing the potential effects of such liberalization have lagged significantly behind those available for analyzing tariffs. This book is the first volume that comprehensively addresses this gap. It has been designed to be useful for both economists and policymakers, especially for those involved in communicating ideas and results between economists and policymakers. This indispensable book contains cutting-edge discussions of the full range of methodologies used in this area, including business surveys, summary statistics such as effective rates of protection and price gaps, time-series and panel econometrics, and simulation methods such as computable general equilibrium. It covers the entire spectrum of policies under discussion in current trade negotiations, including trade facilitation, services policies, quantitative measures, customs procedures, standards, movement of natural persons, and anti-dumping. Some prominent contributors to this book are Bijit Bora (World Trade Organization), John Wilson, Tsunehiro Otsuki and Vlad Manole (World Bank), Catherine Mann (Institute of International Economics), Alan Deardorff and Robert Stern (University of Michigan), Joe Francois (Erasmus University), Dean Spinanger (University of Kiel), Antoni Estevadeordal and Kati Suominen (Inter-American Development Bank), Thomas Prusa (Rutgers University), Thomas Hertel and Terrie Walmsley (Purdue University), Scott Bradford (Brigham Young University), Judith Dean, Robert Feinberg, Soamiely Andriamananjara and Marinos Tsigas (US International Trade Commission).

The paper contributes to the discussion about the revenue implications of trade reform by assessing the approximate fiscal revenue impact of different liberalization formulae under consideration in multilateral trade negotiations for a group of low- and middle-income countries. The study applies a linear optimization framework to data for bound tariffs, applied tariffs, and imports at the HS-6 digit level for 58 developing countries, and simulates results for different sets of import demand elasticities and developing country \"flexibilities.\" While only a small number of countries face a significant impact, results point toward the need for complementary fiscal measures in the countries most affected by revenue loss.

Trade reform in Latin America in the 1980s and 1990s was in significant part a reform of policy-making institutions. The institutions that existed when the reforms began had been created in response to particular protectionist pressures at particular times, and afterward they were controlled by the interests on whose behalf they had been created. This book was prompted by preliminary evidence suggesting that the reforms have been better sustained in Peru than in Argentina. Peru has continued its liberalization whereas Argentina has imposed a number of new trade restrictions. Moreover, decisions on many of Argentina's restrictions have not gone through the new mechanisms. The objective of this book is to draw lessons from Peruvian and Argentine experience that will be useful to governments that want to maintain an open trade regime. From a positive perspective, the authors want to identify what the Peruvian government has done that has kept its liberalization moving forward. The Peru study focuses on how reform leaders in that country have reinforced the evolution of a new management culture and how they have disseminated widely in Peruvian society a positive vision of Peru in the international economy.