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Numerous studies have examined how farmers are involved and behave in the use of pesticides, but what drives farmers’ intention to diminish pesticide applications is mostly unknown. This study explored farmers’ intention to minimize pesticide use, through the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and an adjusted form of the TPB, with perceived risk of loss as an additional variable to the original model. On a scale from 1 to 5, intention to reduce pesticide use had the lowest score of all variables (2.36), indicating that most farmers did not show intention to reduce pesticide use. Only 15.2% of the farmers were willing to reduce pesticide use, while 8.3% were undecided. Moreover, 58.2% of the farmers had high levels of perceived risk of loss by the reduction of pesticide use, which explained 37.3% of farmers’ intention. From the three variables of the TPB, attitudes had the highest score (3.34), indicating slightly favorable attitudes toward pesticide reduction, while perceived behavior control had the lowest score (2.70), indicating poor control of pesticide reduction. Also, the three basic variables of the TPB were positively correlated ( P < 0.01) with farmers’ intention to reduce pesticides, while a negative correlation ( P < 0.01) was noted between intention to reduce pesticides and perceived risk of loss. The three basic variables of the TPB were significant predictors of intention, capturing 54.7% of the variation in farmers’ intention. Adding perceived risk of loss as a construct to the TPB improved the predictive ability of the original model. Poor control of pesticide reduction (high-perceived barriers) and high perceived risk of loss drive farmers’ intention to reduce the use of pesticides. Advancing alternative crop protection methods focusing on agro-ecology and integrated pest management should be included in the work of extension services.

The summer monsoon–affected area is a suitable area for agricultural production in China. Against the background of climate warming, the activity of the summer monsoon is changing significantly. The drought and flood disasters in this region are becoming more and more frequent and have a greater and more serious impact on agricultural production. Therefore, based on observational data from meteorological stations and yield loss data in agriculture caused by drought and flood disasters in summer monsoon–affected areas, this paper studied the characteristics of the hazard of disaster-causing factors, the risk of losses to agriculture caused by droughts and floods, and their correlation. Moreover, it compared and analyzed the variability of drought and flood hazard and risk to agriculture before and after a temperature rise. The results showed that the precipitation in summer monsoon–affected areas is obviously affected by monsoon activities, and there is an overall though non-significant positive correlation between annual average standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the summer monsoon activity index (MI). The drought disaster comprehensive loss rate (DCLR) was generally higher than the flood disaster comprehensive loss rate (FCLR). This shows that the impact of drought on agriculture production is significantly greater than that of floods in this area. The high hazard and risk areas for drought were mainly distributed along the edge of the summer monsoon area and in its vicinity, whereas the high hazard and risk areas for flooding were mainly distributed in the lower reach of the Yangtze, Songhua, and Liaohe Rivers. Among them, Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang are high-risk superposition areas of drought and flood disasters. The hazards of drought and flood dominate the risk of disaster loss. Climate warming has significantly expanded the high-hazard and high-risk ranges in China for drought and flood disasters and has also changed their spatial distribution patterns. The high-hazard area for drought has shifted to the monsoon edge area, the high-risk area for drought has moved northward, and both the high-hazard and the high-risk areas for floods have clearly moved southward. The impact of climate warming on drought was more significant than on floods. This study provides important scientific guidance for formulating drought and flood disaster prevention planning and agricultural production development patterns in China.

Environmental risks give urgency to the need to understand the society–nature relationship. While the ecosystem services (ES) framework allows analysis of interrelationships between biophysical supply and human demand for natural resources, further research is needed to understand what drives societal demand for ES. Here, I explore how incorporation of the key sociological theories of risk (systems theory, ‘world risk society’, and cultural theory of risk) can advance this understanding. By examining these theories, the following key insights were identified: (1) A deeper understanding of societal structures and risk perception helps to understand culturally driven patterns of ES demand; (2) sociological ES research must use inter- and transdisciplinary methods to understand the drivers of ES demand and risk perception. It must also link this understanding to the natural sciences’ knowledge of the drivers of ES supply if it is to identify new instruments of environmental governance; (3) while anthropocentric in character, the ES framework, especially one that is modified by the concept of risk, enables society to reflect on its role as a proactive part of a social–ecological system, rather than a passive victim of nature’s whims. This change in perspective may prove to be a key step in achieving sustainable development.

This paper discusses the relationship between weather and rice productivity modeled using the Cobb–Douglas production function principle, with the hypothesis that rice production will increase in line with the increase in average rainfall, wind speed, and temperature every month and then decrease if the weather conditions exceed the threshold. As a result, farmers have the risk of losing rice production. To overcome this problem, we try to estimate the value of the risk. The purpose of this study is to estimate the risk of losses that occurred in rice plants due to weather changes. The method used in this study is risk estimation with the Tail Value at Risk (TVaR) approach. In addition to TVaR, it is estimated simultaneously with Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). This study uses weather data consisting of rainfall data, wind speed, and air temperature collected from geophysical and meteorological data. Meanwhile, yield data were obtained and processed from the Central Statistics Agency and the West Java Agricultural Service. The data used are data from 2008 to 2021. There are two main parts of the results in this study, namely mathematical analysis and data analysis. The mathematical analysis is a risk model derivation process, which includes TVaR risk measurement. The data analysis process is a simulation of the estimated risk of rice production loss. The results obtained from this study are the value of opportunity risk of loss based on the VaR, CVaR, and TVaR approaches. The conclusion of this study is that the rice plants have a risk of loss in the form of reduced yields caused by weather changes. Farmers can plan to overcome this loss problem, by setting up a reserve fund. Risk of loss can be managed through the rice agricultural insurance program. This is in line with the Indonesian government’s program through the ministry of agriculture. Thus, farmers, insurance companies, and the government can manage the risk of losing rice yields.

Decisions associated with life safety risk management of natural hazards can involve significant potential consequences for public safety. Given possible limitations to available societal resources, it is therefore necessary to establish a clear and rational basis for the allocation of resources towards risk management. A viable approach for utilising life safety risk assessment in public safety decisions that are aimed at improving the welfare of the public and other stakeholders is described in this paper. This approach is conceptually based on the principles of the Life Quality Index (LQI) (Nathwani et al. in Affordable safety by choice: the life quality method. University of Waterloo, Waterloo, 1997 ; Nathwani et al. in Engineering decisions for life quality: how safe is safe enough? Springer, London, 2009 ). A case study involving the cost–benefit analysis of selected packages of measures for reducing the risks posed by different rainfall-induced flow-like phenomena—which include hyperconcentrated flows, debris flows and landslides on open slopes—in the municipality of Nocera Inferiore (located in the Campania region in southern Italy) is then described. As demonstrated through the case study, the approach enables a clear evaluation of the efficiency and acceptability of the risk mitigation packages and provides vital decision support in their prioritisation and optimisation.

Two models of ambiguity preferences that permit comparative statics analysis of greater ambiguity aversion yield definite predictions concerning propensities for self-insurance and self-protection: The levels of both activities that are optimal for an ambiguity-averse decision maker are higher in the presence of ambiguity than in its absence, and demands for both activities increase with greater ambiguity aversion. The reason is that, at levels optimal for one decision maker, an increase in either activity results in a mean-preserving contraction in the distribution of expected utility in the presence of ambiguity, which is valuable to anyone with the same risk preferences who is more ambiguity averse.

In this paper, we propose a bivariate extension of univariate composite (two-spliced) distributions defined by a bivariate Pareto distribution for values larger than some thresholds and by a bivariate Gumbel distribution on the complementary domain. The purpose of this distribution is to capture the behavior of bivariate data consisting of mainly small and medium values but also of some extreme values. Some properties of the proposed distribution are presented. Further, two estimation procedures are discussed and illustrated on simulated data and on a real data set consisting of a bivariate sample of claims from an auto insurance portfolio. In addition, the risk of loss in this insurance portfolio is estimated by Monte Carlo simulation.

The Red List of threatened habitat types in Germany was first published in 1994 and it is updated approximately every ten years. In 2017 the third version was published by the German Federal Agency for Nature Conservation. In the course of the revision, the criteria system was also extended. In doing so, an attempt was made to find a compromise between the consideration of international developments that had taken place and existing national requirements. In particular, short-term developments should become visible through the German Red List status. In addition to ‘National long-term Threat’, the valuation now also includes ‘Current Trend’ and ‘Rarity’. Following the IUCN’s approach, the collapse risk is now represented on the basis of several criteria. However, in contrast to the IUCN procedure, where the worst evaluated criterion is determinative for Red List status, in our procedure all criteria are included in the evaluation. To counteract misleading signal-effects for management decisions, all significant criteria have an influence on the resulting German Red List status (RLG). They are combined in an assessment scheme. In order to map the overall risk of loss, both the long-term threat as a historical reference value and furthermore the current trend must have an influence on RLG. As a result, 65% of habitat types have differing risk of loss.

With the increasing number of dams and the age of older dams, the issues of dam safety are becoming more prominent. The potential dam safety problem is not only a security issue but also a an issue of risk for areas downstream of dams. Therefore, risk management is the core of dam safety administration. Dam risk classification is an important part of risk management that should consider the probability of dam failure and the risk of loss (potential damage). This paper summarizes research on dam risk classification and finds that ‘three degrees’ and ‘four degrees’ of dam risk classification are used widely in developed countries or districts. It proposes that four degrees of risk could be adopted by the risk matrix approach for the current situation and relevant regulations of China. It might make the dam safety management more efficient and have a certain guiding significance in establishing the standard of dam risk classification in China.

This study assesses how the mass public reasons about political institutions by examining the effects of winning and losing on support for several electoral reform proposals. The national sample survey identified majorities supporting proposals for major changes in America's electoral institutions, and that suggested electoral losses may have a modest effect in reducing losers' satisfaction with how democracy works. Random assignment experiments that tested hypotheses derived from theories of risk perception were conducted. It was found that people who saw themselves as winners and losers in the electoral arena reasoned differently when proposals for change were framed in terms of loss. Losers may be just slightly more supportive than winners of some electoral reforms; however, they appeared less sensitive than winners to framing effects that presented reform proposals in terms of the risks of loss. Winners may support the same reform proposals but their support for change decreased more when the proposals were framed as a potential loss. Winners are thus risk aversive when evaluating electoral reform proposals, while losers may even be risk seeking. Although this survey found support for major reforms, the patterns of reasoning that were identified in the mass public suggest a basis for the stability of electoral institutions.