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Downscaling is necessary to generate high-resolution observation data to validate the climate model forecast or monitor rainfall at the micro-regional level operationally. Available observations generated by automated weather stations or meteorological observatories are often limited in spatial resolution resulting in misrepresentation or absence of rainfall information at these levels. Dynamical and statistical downscaling models are often used to get information at high-resolution gridded data over larger domains. As rainfall variability is dependent on the complex spatio-temporal process leading to non-linear or chaotic spatio-temporal variations, no single downscaling method can be considered efficient enough. In the domains dominated by complex topographies, quasi-periodicities, and non-linearities, deep learning (DL)–based methods provide an efficient solution in downscaling rainfall data for regional climate forecasting and real-time rainfall observation data at high spatial resolutions. We employed three deep learning-based algorithms derived from the super-resolution convolutional neural network (SRCNN) methods in this work. Summer monsoon season data from India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) data set were downscaled up to 4 times higher resolution using these methods. High-resolution data derived from deep learning-based models provide better results than linear interpolation for up to 4 times higher resolution. Among the three algorithms, namely, SRCNN, stacked SRCNN, and DeepSD, employed here, the best spatial distribution of rainfall amplitude and minimum root-mean-square error is produced by DeepSD-based downscaling. Hence, the use of the DeepSD algorithm is advocated for future use. We found that spatial discontinuity in amplitude and intensity rainfall patterns is the main obstacle in the downscaling of precipitation. Furthermore, we applied these methods for model data post-processing, in particular, ERA5 reanalysis data. Downscaled ERA5 rainfall data show a much better distribution of spatial covariance and temporal variance when compared with observation. This study is the first step towards developing deep learning-based weather data downscaling model for Indian summer monsoon rainfall data.

In this study, 60-year monthly rainfall data of Bangladesh were analysed to detect trends. Modified Mann–Kendall, Spearman’s rho tests and Sen’s slope estimators were applied to find the long-term annual, dry season and monthly trends. Sequential Mann–Kendall analysis was applied to detect the potential trend turning points. Spatial variations of the trends were examined using inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation. AutoRegressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for the country mean rainfall and for other two stations data which depicted the highest and the lowest trend in the Mann–Kendall and Spearman’s rho tests. Results showed that there is no significant trend in annual rainfall pattern except increasing trends for Cox’s Bazar, Khulna, Satkhira and decreasing trend for Srimagal areas. For the dry season, only Bogra area represented significant decreasing trend. Long-term monthly trends demonstrated a mixed pattern; both negative and positive changes were found from February to September. Comilla area showed a significant decreasing trend for consecutive 3 months while Rangpur and Khulna stations confirmed the significant rising trends for three different months in month-wise trends analysis. Rangpur station data gave a maximum increasing trend in April whereas a maximum decreasing trend was found in August for Comilla station. ARIMA models predict +3.26, +8.6 and −2.30 mm rainfall per year for the country, Cox’s Bazar and Srimangal areas, respectively. However, all the test results and predictions revealed a good agreement among them in the study.

India's agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins.

Understanding and quantifying long-term rainfall variability at regional scale is important for a country like India where economic growth is very much dependent on agricultural production which in turn is closely linked to rainfall distribution. Using machine learning techniques viz., cluster analysis (CA) and principal component analysis (PCA), the spatial and temporal rainfall patterns over the meteorological subdivisions in India are examined. Monthly rainfall data of 117 years (1901–2017) from India Meteorological Department over 36 meteorological subdivisions in India is used in this study. Using hierarchical clustering method, six homogeneous rainfall clusters were identified in India. Among the rainfall clusters, Group 1 had 30% dissimilarity with Groups 2, 3, and 4 while Group 5 and Group 6 are highly dissimilar (more than 90% dissimilarity) with the rest of the groups. Rainfall seasons in each group were further classified into dry, wet, and transition periods. The duration of dry period is smaller in group which consists of subdivisions from southern part of the country. The transition period between dry and wet period was found to be smaller for subdivisions in the coastal region. Both CA and PCA showed high rainfall variability in Groups 5 and 6, which comprise subdivisions from north east, Kerala, Konkan, and costal Karnataka and low rainfall variability in Groups 1 and 2 which comprise subdivisions from east, north, and central part of the country. Strong negative trend in annual and Indian summer monsoon rainfall is seen in northeast India and Kerala while positive trend is observed over costal Karnataka and Konkan region. The negative trend in post monsoon rainfall particularly over the peninsular and northeast India indicates weakening of northeast monsoon rainfall in the country.

In this study, an attempt has been made to analyze long-term annual and seasonal rainfall trends along with change point of annual rainfall in West Bengal, India for 102 years (1901 to 2002) using monthly rainfall data of 18 rainfall stations. The Mann-Kendall test is used to identify trend in rainfall time series and Theil-Sen’s slope estimator to assess the magnitude of this trend. Trend-free pre-whitening method is used to eliminate the influence of significant lag-1 correlation from the series. Change in magnitude is derived in terms of percentage change over mean rainfall. Pettitt-Mann-Whitney and standard normal homogeneity test have been used to identify change point of annual rainfall. The results show that significant trend is found at five stations in annual rainfall, six stations in monsoon rainfall, and eight stations in postmonsoon rainfall. Maldah station has recorded highest negative change in magnitude in annual (− 14%) as well as monsoon rainfall (− 20.48%). South 24 Parganas rainfall station exhibits highest positive change in magnitude in annual (+ 13.98%) and monsoon (+ 13.27%) rainfall. Postmonsoon rainfall portrays positive change in magnitude at 16 rainfall stations with highest change in Birbhum station (+ 40.07%). Three most probable change point years of annual rainfall, viz. 1956, 1967, and 1952 have been observed for the rainfall stations situated in northern, southern, and western part in West Bengal. In the post change point period, the number of rainfall stations with decreasing trend has risen in northern and western part whereas it has lessened in southern part.

The focus of this paper was to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of dry and wet events using the standard precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in the Tana River Basin (TRB) in Kenya. The SPEI is a new drought index which incorporates the effect of evapotranspiration on drought analysis thus making it possible to identify changes in water demand in the context of global warming. The SPEI was computed at 6- and 12-month timescales using a 54-year long monthly rainfall data from the Global Precipitation and Climate Center (GPCC) and temperature data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) both recorded between 1960 and 2013. Both datasets have a spatial resolution of 0.5° by 0.5° and were extracted for every grid point in the basin. The SPEI was used to assess the temporal and spatial evolution of dry and wet events as well as determine their duration, severity, and intensity. The evolution of significant historical dry and wet events and the frequency of occurrence were clearly identified. The index showed that the period between 1960 and 1980 was dominated by dry events while wet events were dominant in the period between 1990 and 2000. The SPEI6 had the longest duration of dry events of 30 months and severity of 44.67 which was observed at grid 5while the highest intensity was 2.18 observed at grid 31. Grid 19 had the longest duration (52 months) and highest severity (88.08) of dry events for SPEI12 and the intensity was highest (1.94) in grid 31. The longest duration (23) and highest severity (40.03) of wet events for SPEI6 were recorded in grid 39. The highest intensity of wet events for SPEI6 was 1.91 at grid 23 and 1.81 at grid 37 for SPEI12. The principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to the SPEI time series in order to assess the spatial pattern of variability of the dry and wet events in the basin. The PCA showed that there were two leading components which explained over 80% of the spatial variation of dry and wet events in the basin. Further, the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) was applied to the PCA scores in order to capture the time-frequency dynamics. The wavelet transform of the SPEI6 and SPEI12 identified significant periodicities of 1 to 2 years across the spectrum.

The data scarcity and poor availability of observed daily rainfalls over Southeast Asia has limited the possibility to a wider range of studies in light of impacts from climate change and extreme hydro-meteorological processes such as floods, droughts, and other watershed management practices. To fill such a gap, data assimilation was carried out in this study to construct a long-term gridded daily (0.50° × 0.50°) rainfall time series (1951–2014) over Southeast Asia. In rainfall data assimilation, the available and globally accepted high resolution gridded datasets viz. Southeast Asia observed (SA-OBS) (1981–2014), APHRODITE (1951–2007), TRMM (1998–2018), PRINCETON (1951–2008) along with limited rain gauges-based rainfalls were utilized. In this study, eight gap filling methods were employed and tested at 20 selected rainfall grids to fill the long gaps presented in the SA-OBS gridded dataset. The strength of each method and associated uncertainties were evaluated in the computed rainfalls utilizing multiple functions at missing grids. The accuracy of each method, in case of extreme rainfalls, was tested by quantile–quantile (Q–Q) plots at different quantile intervals. The distance power method based on the Pearson correlation coefficient and the multiple linear regression method performed satisfactorily and produced minimum uncertainties in filling rainfall gaps. To test the accuracy and compatibility of gap-filled SA-OBS gridded dataset with other sources of datasets, the seasonality analysis and rainfall indices comparison were carried out. Results showed that the gap-filled SA-OBS dataset was better comparable to other sources of rainfalls. For the construction of the long-term rainfall time series (1951–2014), quantile mapping was adopted for bias correction and the quality of the final merged dataset was evaluated.

In mountainous regions, rainfall plays a key role in water supply for millions of people. However, rainfall data for these sites are limited and generally of low quality, making it difficult to evaluate the nature, amount, and timing of rainfall. This is particularly true for the páramo, a high-elevation grassland in the northern Andes that is a primary source of water for large populations in Ecuador, Colombia, and Venezuela. In this study, high-resolution laser disdrometer data and standard tipping-bucket rain gauge data were used to improve knowledge of rainfall in the páramo. For 36 months, rainfall was monitored in a high-elevation (3780 m MSL) headwater catchment in southern Ecuador. Average annual rainfall during this period was 1345 mm. Results indicate that (i) when input from very low–intensity events (drizzle) is taken into account, rainfall is 15% higher than previously thought; (ii) rainfall occurs throughout the year (only approximately 12% of the days are dry); (iii) rainfall occurs primarily as drizzle (80% of rainfall duration), which accounts for 29% of total rainfall amount; and (iv) the timing and average intensity of rainfall varies throughout the year (shorter afternoon events are common from October to May, whereas longer night events—with lower intensities—are more frequent from June to September). Although some of these numbers may vary regionally, the results contribute to a better understanding of rainfall in the wet Andean páramo.

Drought is a complex natural phenomenon, so, precise prediction of drought is an effective mitigation tool for measuring the negative consequences on agriculture, ecosystems, hydrology, and water resources. The purpose of this research was to explore the potential capability of support vector regression (SVR) integrated with two meta-heuristic algorithms i.e., Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO), and Spotted Hyena Optimizer (SHO), for meteorological drought (MD) prediction by utilizing EDI (effective drought index). For this objective, the two-hybrid SVR–GWO, and SVR–SHO models were constructed at Kumaon and Garhwal regions of Uttarakhand State (India). The EDI was computed in both study regions by using monthly rainfall data series to calibrate and validate the advanced hybrid SVR models. The autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial-ACF (PACF) were utilized to determine the optimal inputs (antecedent EDI) for EDI prediction. The results produced by the hybrid SVR models were compared with the calculated (observed) values by employing the statistical indicators and through graphical inspection. A comparison of results demonstrates that the hybrid SVR–GWO model outperformed to the SVR–SHO models for all study stations located in Kumaon and Garhwal regions. Also, the results highlighted the better suitability, supremacy, and convergence behavior of meta-heuristic algorithms (i.e., GWO and SHO) for meteorological drought prediction in the study regions.

Heavy rainfall has consistently acted as the primary catalyst for floods, resulting in numerous casualties and significant economic losses globally. Rainfall forecasting is accomplished by analysing existing rainfall data, which is then used to analyse the hydraulic system’s features. Gaining an understanding of rainfall requirements is a crucial challenge for every location, particularly in the case of India, given its diverse geographical area, population, and other influencing factors that impact various demands. This study evaluated the rainfall data for a span of 1990-2021 in six districts of Kerala State, India. To match the rainfall data from all districts, we utilized both Kaumarasamy-distribution and Dagum-distributions. Various Probabilistic tests, were employed to comparing these distributions. The results revealed that, in Kasargod, the Kumarasamy distribution demonstrates superior goodness-of-fit with the lowest Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic (0.0597) and Anderson-darling statistic (2.271). However, in Wayanad, Malappuram, Palakkad, Idukki, and Trivandrum, the Dagum distribution consistently exhibits the most accurate fit, evident from its lowest Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics (0.07447, 0.05435, 0.0556, 0.03636, 0.04291) and favourable Chi-Squared statistics (19.471, 8.4907, 19.239, 5.7318, 7.5297). These results emphasize the regional variation in precipitation data and the suitability of specific distribution models for accurate representation across differentlocations.