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Dispersal affects species' ability to move or adapt in response to environmental change. Successful long‐distance dispersal also requires reproduction in areas with few mates, thus mating systems, especially the capacity for self‐fertilization, may influence the speed and success of range shifts. Here, we review: the theoretical predictions regarding dispersal and mating‐system evolution at equilibrium, expanding and contracting range limits; the empirical support for these predictions; and how these geographic patterns may influence future range evolution. Equilibrium range limits can arise from environmental gradients in habitat quality, temporal variation or habitat heterogeneity. Dispersal has been predicted to increase or decrease towards range edges, depending on which life‐history traits respond to the ecological gradient(s). In general, spatial habitat isolation selects against dispersal, whereas temporal stochasticity favours dispersal. At expanding range fronts, dispersal should increase due to spatial sorting for dispersive individuals and the benefits of colonizing vacant habitat. Dispersal evolution is likely more constrained during native range shifts than invasions. Models of expansion across environmental gradients and during climate‐tracking range shifts are lacking. Little theory considers evolution at contracting range margins. We suggest that increased dispersal should be selected if there is local adaptation to climate, as dispersers from warmer areas will out‐compete nondispersers no longer adapted to new climatic conditions. Dispersal increases should be more pronounced in regions where local adaptation is stronger. Self fertilization may be favoured at equilibrium, expanding or contracting range margins by providing reproductive assurance. However, this benefit depends on how inbreeding depression is influenced by genetic load, the severity of the abiotic environment, and the competitive milieu in edge populations. Models for the joint evolution of mating and dispersal in plants suggest that although selfing may evolve at range limits, it will not necessarily be associated with high dispersal. Empirical evidence to test these predictions is scarce. Geographic surveys of dispersal traits, mating‐system traits and relevant selective factors are needed, especially studies of: (i) stable range limits that identify underlying environmental gradients; (ii) moving range limits that compare traits across space and time; and (iii) contracting limits that assess variation in local adaptation towards the range edge.

ABSTRACT Aim The mountain biodiversity is highly threatened by climate change, with many species facing habitat reduction and/or local extinction. Poikilohydric organisms like lichens are extremely sensitive to environmental conditions and changes. A comprehensive overview of the impact of climate change on the future distribution of lichens is still missing. Thus, we quantified the range shift, loss in suitable areas and potential climatic refugia for more than 250 lichens, exploring these trends for each species and grouping them by their ecological needs and functional traits. Location Alps chain and surrounding areas (Europe). Methods We performed species distribution models to investigate the range shifts of 272 lichens under different climate change scenarios. Range shift was investigated by modelling gain and loss in suitability score along the elevational gradient, for each species separately and grouping them based on growth forms and temperature‐affinities. Based on the ‘high suitability score stability’ index we developed maps of potential refuge areas. Results We predicted a huge loss of habitat suitability over time, especially under the SSP5‐5.8. Fruticose lichens and cryophilous species will be the most impacted. Moreover, contrary to the assumption of an upward range shift, most species showed no significant relationship between altitude and increase in habitat suitability, suggesting different redistribution patterns for lichens. In the same way, climatic refugia are not only identified at high elevations but also in deep valleys and cold exposure. Main Conclusions The response of lichens to climate change is extremely heterogeneous, and an upper‐range shift is less common than expected. Spatial redistribution is highly distinct among functional groups. The identified climatic refugia confirm this pattern, underlining the urgent need to improve the conservation effort, especially for fruticose and cryophilic species.

ABSTRACT Climate‐induced range shifts may displace species into novel habitats where their life history characteristics may differ in response to new physiological conditions. One such species is the mangrove tree crab, Aratus pisonii, that has expanded beyond mangrove habitats into salt marshes, with the help of anthropogenic structures such as boat docks that mimic its natural habitat in many ways. Individuals in the salt marsh grow to smaller sizes and have different reproductive patterns than individuals in the native mangrove or in boat dock habitats. We examined the metabolic rates of crabs associated with each of these three habitats to determine whether changes in energy expenditure could account for the life history changes that have been documented. We found that the metabolic patterns were similar in the three habitats, with metabolic rate increasing with body size and with temperature, being higher for females than for males and increasing during reproduction. However, once these factors were accounted for, there was no additional difference in metabolic patterns between habitats. Combining these patterns with known patterns of temperature differences and differences in food intake between the mangrove, salt marsh, and boat docks provides mechanistic insight into the energy mismatch that has been created by this range expansion from mangroves to salt marshes. The energy dynamics in these different habitats are consistent with and are capable of explaining the observed patterns of life history variation that accompany this range expansion. Our study provides an example of a mechanistic approach to understanding the influence of climate change and associated range shifts on life history variation across habitat types. We show that metabolic costs of mangrove tree crabs are similar in native mangrove habitats and in salt marshes that have recently been colonized with climate change. Our results suggest that changes to life history of this species that accompany this range expansion are the result of energetic constraints in salt marshes.

Altitudinal gradients provide a useful space‐for‐time substitution to examine the capacity for plant competition and facilitation to mediate responses to climate change. Decomposing net interactions into their facilitative and competitive components, and quantifying the performance of plants with and without neighbours along altitudinal gradients, may prove particularly informative in understanding the mechanisms behind plant responses to environmental change. To decouple the inherent responses of species to climate from the responses of plant–plant interactions to climate, we conducted a meta‐analysis. Using data from 16 alpine experiments, we tested if changes in net interactions along altitudinal gradients were due to a change in the performance of target species without neighbours (i.e. environmental severity effects only) or with neighbours (neighbour trait mediated effects). There was a global shift from competition to facilitation with increasing altitude driven by both environmental severity and neighbour trait effects. However, this global pattern was strongly influenced by the high number of studies in mesic climates and driven by competition at low altitude in temperate climates (neighbour trait effect), and facilitation at high altitude in arctic and temperate climates (environmental severity effect). In Mediterranean systems, there was no significant effect of competition, and facilitation increased with decreasing altitude. Changes in facilitation with altitude could not unambiguously be attributed to either neighbour trait effects or environmental severity effects, probably because of the opposing stress gradients of cold and aridity in dry environments. Partitioning net interactions along altitudinal gradients led to the prediction that climate change should decrease the importance of facilitation in mesic alpine communities, which might in turn exacerbate the negative effects of climate change in these regions. In xeric climates, the importance of facilitation by drought‐tolerant species should increase at low altitudes which should mitigate the negative effect of climate change. However, the importance of facilitation by cold‐tolerant species at high altitudes may decrease and exacerbate the effects of climate change.

The Gulf of Maine (GoM) is one of the fastest-warming parts of the world’s oceans. Some species’ distributional shifts have already been documented, especially for commercially-important species. Less is known about species that are not currently exploited but may become so in the future. As a case study into these issues, we focus on lumpfish ( Cyclopterus lumpus) because of the recognized and timely need to understand wild lumpfish population dynamics to support sustainable fisheries and aquaculture developments. Using occurrence data from five different fisheries-dependent and independent surveys, we examined lumpfish distribution over time in the GoM. We found that lumpfish presence was more likely in Fall and correlated with deeper waters and colder bottom temperatures. Since 1980, lumpfish presence has increased over time and shifted north. Given a limited set of data, these findings should be interpreted with caution as additional work is needed to assess if the actual distribution of lumpfish is changing. Nevertheless, our work provides preliminary information for resource managers to ensure that lumpfish are harvested sustainably for use in emergent lumpfish aquaculture facilities.

In recent decades, a rapid range expansion of the golden jackal (Canis aureus) towards Northern and Western Europe has been observed. The golden jackal is a medium‐sized canid, with a broad and flexible diet. Almost 200 different parasite species have been reported worldwide from C. aureus, including many parasites that are shared with dogs and cats and parasite species of public health concern. As parasites may follow the range shifts of their host, the range expansion of the golden jackal could be accompanied by changes in the parasite fauna in the new ecosystems. In the new distribution area, the golden jackal could affect ecosystem equilibrium, e.g., through changed competition situations or predation pressure. In a niche modeling approach, we project the future climatic habitat suitability of the golden jackal in Europe in the context of whether climatic changes promote range expansion. We use an ensemble forecast based on six presence‐absence algorithms to estimate the climatic suitability of C. aureus for different time periods up to the year 2100 considering different IPCC scenarios on future development. As predictor variables, we used six bioclimatic variables provided by worldclim. Our results clearly indicate that areas with climatic conditions analogous to those of the current core distribution area of the golden jackal in Europe will strongly expand towards the north and the west in future decades. Thus, the observed range expansion may be favored by climate change. The occurrence of stable populations can be expected in Central Europe. With regard to biodiversity and public health concerns, the population and range dynamics of the golden jackal should be surveyed. Correlative niche models provide a useful and frequently applied tool for this purpose. The results can help to make monitoring more efficient by identifying areas with suitable habitat and thus a higher probability of occurrence. In recent decades, a rapid range expansion of the golden jackal (Canis aureus) towards northern and western Europe has been observed. In an ensemble forecasting niche modelling approach, we projected the potential future range expansion of the golden jackal in Europe.

Climate change is predicted to be one of the greatest drivers of ecological change in the coming century. Increases in temperature over the last century have clearly been linked to shifts in species distributions. Given the magnitude of projected future climatic changes, we can expect even larger range shifts in the coming century. These changes will, in turn, alter ecological communities and the functioning of ecosystems. Despite the seriousness of predicted climate change, the uncertainty in climate-change projections makes it difficult for conservation managers and planners to proactively respond to climate stresses. To address one aspect of this uncertainty, we identified predictions of faunal change for which a high level of consensus was exhibited by different climate models. Specifically, we assessed the potential effects of 30 coupled atmosphere—ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) future-climate simulations on the geographic ranges of 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians in the Western Hemisphere. Eighty percent of the climate projections based on a relatively low greenhouse-gas emissions scenario result in the local loss of at least 10% of the vertebrate fauna over much of North and South America. The largest changes in fauna are predicted for the tundra. Central America, and the Andes Mountains where, assuming no dispersal constraints, specific areas are likely to experience over 90% turnover, so that faunal distributions in the future will bear little resemblance to those of today.

Warming waters and changing ocean currents are increasing the supply of tropical fish larvae to temperature regions where they are exposed to novel habitats, namely temperate macroalgae and barren reefs. Here, we use underwater surveys on the temperate reefs of south-eastern (SE) Australia and western Japan (~33.5°N and S, respectively) to investigate how temperate macroalgal and non-macroalgal habitats influence recruitment success of a range of tropical fishes. We show that temperate macroalgae strongly affected recruitment of many tropical fish species in both regions and across three recruitment seasons in SE Australia. Densities and richness of recruiting tropical fishes, primarily planktivores and herbivores, were over seven times greater in non-macroalgal than macroalgal reef habitat. Species and trophic diversity ( K -dominance) were also greater in non-macroalgal habitat. Temperate macroalgal cover was a stronger predictor of tropical fish assemblages than temperate fish assemblages, reef rugosities or wave exposure. Tropical fish richness, diversity and density were greater on barren reef than on reef dominated by turfing algae. One common species, the neon damselfish ( Pomacentrus coelestis ), chose non-macroalgal habitat over temperate macroalgae for settlement in an aquarium experiment. This study highlights that temperate macroalgae may partly account for spatial variation in recruitment success of many tropical fishes into higher latitudes. Hence, habitat composition of temperate reefs may need to be considered to accurately predict the geographic responses of many tropical fishes to climate change.

The global redistribution of species due to climate change and other anthropogenic causes is driving novel human–wildlife interactions with complex consequences. On the one hand, range‐shifting species could disrupt recipient ecosystems. On the other hand, these species may be contracting in their historic range, contributing to loss of biodiversity there. Given that arriving range‐shifting species could also perhaps have positive effects on recipient ecosystems, there is [in principle] a net benefit equation to be calculated. Thus, public opinion on these species may be divided and they may present a unique challenge to wildlife management. We surveyed the opinion of wildlife recorders about the establishment and management of eight birds and eight insects whose ranges have recently shifted into the United Kingdom. We asked whether respondents' attitudes were explained by the species' or respondents' characteristics, and whether or not climate change was emphasised as a cause of range‐shift. We also conducted qualitative analysis of the recorders' text responses to contextualise these results. Attitudes to range‐shifting species were mostly positive but were more ambivalent for less familiar taxa and for insects compared with birds. Respondents were strongly opposed to eradicating or controlling new range‐shifters, and to management aimed to increase their numbers. Whether climate change was presented as the cause of range‐shifts did not affect attitudes, likely because respondents assumed climate change was the driver regardless. These findings suggest that it will be difficult to generate support for active management to support or hinder species' redistribution, particularly for invertebrate or overlooked species among wildlife recorders. However, the positive attitudes suggest that on the whole range‐shifting species are viewed sympathetically. Engaging with wildlife recorders may represent an opportunity to garner support for conservation actions which will benefit both currently native and arriving species, such as improvements to habitat quality and connectivity. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

1. Due to global warming and other changes in the environment, many native and exotic plant species show range expansion from lower to higher latitudes. In the new range, the (in) ability of range-expanding plants to establish associations with local soil microbes can have important consequences for plant abundance; however, very little information exists on rhizosphere communities of range-expanding plant species. Here, we examine the rhizosphere microbial community composition of range-expanding plant species in comparison with phylogenetically related species that are native in the invaded range. 2. We tested the hypothesis that range-expanding plants species would promote fewer shifts in rhizosphere communities than congeneric natives would. In order to test this, soil was collected from the invaded habitat and six range-expanding and nine congeneric natives were planted individually in pots to condition soil microbial communities. 3. After harvesting, individuals of the same species were planted in conditioned own and control soils to test the legacy effects of soil conditioning on biomass production. The control soils were mixtures of soils conditioned by all other plant species, except congenerics. After 10 weeks of plant growth, we determined the rhizosphere community composition of bacteria, fungi, arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) and Fusarium spp. 4. All groups of microbes were analysed qualitatively using denaturating gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE). Ergosterol was determined as a quantitative measure of nonarbuscular mycorrhizal fungal biomass, and realtime PCR was applied to detect amounts of Fusarium spp. 5. Range-expanding plants had less fungal hyphal biomass and lower amounts of Fusarium spp. in the rhizosphere than congenerics. Bacterial community composition was influenced by a combination of soil conditioning and plant origin, whereas fungal communities, AMF and Fusarium spp. were less pronounced in their responses to the experimental treatments. 6. Synthesis. We conclude that the lack of legacy effects in range-expanding plant species compared with natives may be due to differences in bacterial rhizosphere community composition, or to different quantities of potential pathogenic fungi. If the range-expanding plant species were benefiting more from AMF, effects will not have been due to differences in community composition, but we cannot exclude other options, such as different effectiveness of AMF or other soil biota in the rhizosphere of range-expanding vs. native plant species. The greater accumulation of bacterial and fungal pathogens in the rhizosphere of natives in relation to range expanders might explain the successful establishment of range-expanding plants.