Explore the vast range of titles available.

Abstract The combined actions of climatic variations and landscape barriers shape the history of natural populations. When organisms follow their shifting niches, obstacles in the landscape can lead to the splitting of populations, on which evolution will then act independently. When two such populations are reunited, secondary contact occurs in a broad range of admixture patterns, from narrow hybrid zones to the complete dissolution of lineages. A previous study suggested that barn owls colonized the Western Palearctic after the last glaciation in a ring-like fashion around the Mediterranean Sea, and conjectured an admixture zone in the Balkans. Here, we take advantage of whole-genome sequences of 94 individuals across the Western Palearctic to reveal the complex history of the species in the region using observational and modeling approaches. Even though our results confirm that two distinct lineages colonized the region, one in Europe and one in the Levant, they suggest that it predates the last glaciation and identify a secondary contact zone between the two in Anatolia. We also show that barn owls recolonized Europe after the glaciation from two distinct glacial refugia: a previously identified western one in Iberia and a new eastern one in Italy. Both glacial lineages now communicate via eastern Europe, in a wide and permeable contact zone. This complex history of populations enlightens the taxonomy of Tyto alba in the region, highlights the key role played by mountain ranges and large water bodies as barriers and illustrates the power of population genomics in uncovering intricate demographic patterns.

Protected areas (PA) are refugia of biodiversity. However, anthropogenic climate change induces a redistribution of life on Earth that affects the effectiveness of PAs. When species are forced to migrate from protected to unprotected areas to track suitable climate, they often face degraded habitats in human-dominated landscapes and a higher extinction threat. Here, we assess how climate conditions are expected to shift within the world’s terrestrial PAs ( n  = 137,432). PAs in the temperate and northern high-latitude biomes are predicted to obtain especially high area proportions of climate conditions that are novel within the PA network at the local, regional and global scale by the end of this century. These PAs are predominantly small, at low elevation, with low environmental heterogeneity, high human pressure, and low biotic uniqueness. Our results guide adaptation measures towards PAs that are strongly affected by climate change, and of low adaption capacity and high conservation value. Protected areas are important refugia for wildlife, so if climate conditions within them change, wildlife could lose critical suitable habitat. Here the authors calculate the projected gain and loss of climate conditions within terrestrial protected areas worldwide.

Mountain ranges contain high concentrations of endemic species and are indispensable refugia for lowland species that are facing anthropogenic climate change 1 , 2 . Forecasting biodiversity redistribution hinges on assessing whether species can track shifting isotherms as the climate warms 3 , 4 . However, a global analysis of the velocities of isotherm shifts along elevation gradients is hindered by the scarcity of weather stations in mountainous regions 5 . Here we address this issue by mapping the lapse rate of temperature (LRT) across mountain regions globally, both by using satellite data (SLRT) and by using the laws of thermodynamics to account for water vapour 6 (that is, the moist adiabatic lapse rate (MALRT)). By dividing the rate of surface warming from 1971 to 2020 by either the SLRT or the MALRT, we provide maps of vertical isotherm shift velocities. We identify 17 mountain regions with exceptionally high vertical isotherm shift velocities (greater than 11.67 m per year for the SLRT; greater than 8.25 m per year for the MALRT), predominantly in dry areas but also in wet regions with shallow lapse rates; for example, northern Sumatra, the Brazilian highlands and southern Africa. By linking these velocities to the velocities of species range shifts, we report instances of close tracking in mountains with lower climate velocities. However, many species lag behind, suggesting that range shift dynamics would persist even if we managed to curb climate-change trajectories. Our findings are key for devising global conservation strategies, particularly in the 17 high-velocity mountain regions that we have identified. An analysis of the rate at which isotherms are shifting in mountain regions worldwide identifies 17 key regions with particularly high vertical isotherm shift velocities, and provides insight into how these shifts affect species ranges.

During periods of strong environmental change, some areas may serve as refugia, where components of biodiversity can find protection, persist and potentially expand from should conditions again become favourable. The refugia concept has previously been used in the context of climatic change, to describe climatically stable areas in which taxa survived past Quaternary glacial–interglacial oscillations, or where they might persist in the future under anthropogenic climate change. However, with the recognition that Earth has entered the Anthropocene, an era in which human activities are the dominant driving force on ecosystems, it is critical to also consider human pressures on the environment as factors limiting species distributions. Here, we present a novel concept, Anthropocene refugia, to refer to areas that provide spatial and temporal protection from human activities and that will remain suitable for a given taxonomic unit in the long-term. It integrates a deep-time perspective on species biogeography that provides information on the natural rather than current-day relictual distribution of species, with spatial information on modern and future anthropogenic threats. We define the concept and propose a methodology to effectively identify and map realized and potential current and future refugia, using examples for two megafaunal species as a proof of concept. We argue that identifying Anthropocene refugia will improve biodiversity conservation and restoration by allowing better prediction of key areas for conservation and potential for re-expansions today and in the future. More generally, it forms a new conceptual framework to assess and manage the impact of anthropogenic activities on past, current and future patterns of species distributions. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?’

Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates, yet their resilience to rising temperatures remains poorly understood 1 , 2 . This is primarily because knowledge of thermal tolerance is taxonomically and geographically biased 3 , compromising global climate vulnerability assessments. Here we used a phylogenetically informed data-imputation approach to predict the heat tolerance of 60% of amphibian species and assessed their vulnerability to daily temperature variations in thermal refugia. We found that 104 out of 5,203 species (2%) are currently exposed to overheating events in shaded terrestrial conditions. Despite accounting for heat-tolerance plasticity, a 4 °C global temperature increase would create a step change in impact severity, pushing 7.5% of species beyond their physiological limits. In the Southern Hemisphere, tropical species encounter disproportionally more overheating events, while non-tropical species are more susceptible in the Northern Hemisphere. These findings challenge evidence for a general latitudinal gradient in overheating risk 4 , 5 – 6 and underscore the importance of considering climatic variability in vulnerability assessments. We provide conservative estimates assuming access to cool shaded microenvironments. Thus, the impacts of global warming will probably exceed our projections. Our microclimate-explicit analyses demonstrate that vegetation and water bodies are critical in buffering amphibians during heat waves. Immediate action is needed to preserve and manage these microhabitat features. A 4 °C global temperature increase would push 7.5% of amphibian species beyond their physiological limits.

High precipitation in boreal northeastern North America could help forests withstand the expected temperature-driven increase in evaporative demand, but definitive evidence is lacking. Using a network of tree-ring collections from 16,450 stands across 583,000 km² of boreal forests in Québec, Canada, we observe a latitudinal shift in the correlation of black spruce growth with temperature and reduced precipitation, from negative south of 49°N to largely positive to the north of that latitude. Our results suggest that the positive effect of a warmer climate on growth rates and growing season length north of 49°N outweighs the potential negative effect of lower water availability. Unlike the central and western portions of the continent's boreal forest, northeastern North America may act as a climatic refugium in a warmer climate.

Expanding the network of protected areas is a core strategy for conserving biodiversity in the face of climate change. Here, we explore the impacts on reserve network cost and configuration associated with planning for climate change in the USA using networks that prioritize areas projected to be climatically suitable for 1460 species both today and into the future, climatic refugia and areas likely to facilitate climate-driven species movements. For 14% of the species, networks of sites selected solely to protect areas currently climatically suitable failed to provide climatically suitable habitat in the future. Protecting sites climatically suitable for species today and in the future significantly changed the distribution of priority sites across the USA—increasing relative protection in the northeast, northwest and central USA. Protecting areas projected to retain their climatic suitability for species cost 59% more than solely protecting currently suitable areas. Including all climatic refugia and 20% of areas that facilitate climate-driven movements increased the cost by another 18%. Our results indicate that protecting some types of climatic refugia may be a relatively inexpensive adaptation strategy. Moreover, although addressing climate change in conservation plans will have significant implications for the configuration of networks, the increased cost of doing so may be relatively modest. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions’.

Corals are a major habitat-building life-form on tropical reefs that support a quarter of all species in the ocean and provide ecosystem services to millions of people. Marine heat waves continue to threaten and shape reef ecosystems by killing individual coral colonies and reducing their diversity. However, marine heat waves are spatially and temporally heterogeneous, and so too are the environmental and biological factors mediating coral resilience during and following thermal events. This combination results in highly variable outcomes at both the coral bleaching and mortality stages of every event. This, in turn, impedes the assessment of changing reef-scale patterns of thermal tolerance or places of resistance known as reef refugia. We developed a largescale, high-resolution coral mortality monitoring capability based on airborne imaging spectroscopy and applied it to a major marine heat wave in the Hawaiian Islands. While water depth and thermal stress strongly mediated coral mortality, relative coral loss was also inversely correlated with preheat-wave coral cover, suggesting the existence of coral refugia. Subsequent mapping analyses indicated that potential reef refugia underwent up to 40% lower coral mortality compared with neighboring reefs, despite similar thermal stress. A combination of human and environmental factors, particularly coastal development and sedimentation levels, differentiated resilient reefs from other more vulnerable reefs. Our findings highlight the role that coral mortality mapping, rather than bleaching monitoring, can play for targeted conservation that protects more surviving corals in our changing climate.

The Arctic is experiencing a rapid shift toward warmer regimes, calling for a need to understand levels of biodiversity and ecosystem responses to climate cycles. This study presents genetic data for 109 Arctic marine forest species (seaweeds), which revealed contiguous populations extending from the Bering Sea to the northwest Atlantic, with high levels of genetic diversity in the east Canadian Arctic. One-fifth of the species sampled appeared restricted to Arctic waters. Further supported by hindcasted species distributions during the Last Glacial Maximum, we hypothesize that Arctic coastal systems were recolonized from many geographically disparate refugia leading to enriched diversity levels in the east Canadian Arctic, with important contributions stemming from northerly refugia likely centered along southern Greenland. Our results suggest Arctic marine biomes persisted through cycles of glaciation, leading to unique assemblages in polar waters, rather than being entirely derived from southerly (temperate) areas following glaciation. As such, Arctic marine species are potentially born from selective pressures during Cenozoic global cooling and eventual ice conditions beginning in the Pleistocene. Arctic endemic diversity was likely additionally driven by repeated isolations into globally disparate refugia during glaciation. This study highlights the need to take stock of unique Arctic marine biodiversity. Amplification of warming and loss of perennial ice cover are set to dramatically alter available Arctic coastal habitat, with the potential loss of diversity and decline in ecosystem resilience.

The sediment record from Lake Ohrid (Southwestern Balkans) represents the longest continuous lake archive in Europe, extending back to 1.36 Ma. We reconstruct the vegetation history based on pollen analysis of the DEEP core to reveal changes in vegetation cover and forest diversity during glacial–interglacial (G–IG) cycles and early basin development. The earliest lake phase saw a significantly different composition rich in relict tree taxa and few herbs. Subsequent establishment of a permanent steppic herb association around 1.2 Ma implies a threshold response to changes in moisture availability and temperature and gradual adjustment of the basin morphology. A change in the character of G–IG cycles during the Early–Middle Pleistocene Transition is reflected in the record by reorganization of the vegetation from obliquity- to eccentricity-paced cycles. Based on a quantitative analysis of tree taxa richness, the first large-scale decline in tree diversity occurred around 0.94 Ma. Subsequent variations in tree richness were largely driven by the amplitude and duration of G–IG cycles. Significant tree richness declines occurred in periods with abundant dry herb associations, pointing to aridity affecting tree population survival. Assessment of long-term legacy effects between global climate and regional vegetation change reveals a significant influence of cool interglacial conditions on subsequent glacial vegetation composition and diversity. This effect is contrary to observations at high latitudes, where glacial intensity is known to control subsequent interglacial vegetation, and the evidence demonstrates that the Lake Ohrid catchment functioned as a refugium for both thermophilous and temperate tree species.