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"Regime change Case studies."
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Covert Regime Change
2018
O'Rourke's book offers a onestop shop for understanding
foreignimposed regime change. Covert Regime Change is an impressive
book and required reading for anyone interested in understanding
hidden power in world politics. ― Political Science
Quarterly
States seldom resort to war to overthrow their
adversaries. They are more likely to attempt to covertly
change the opposing regime, by assassinating a foreign leader,
sponsoring a coup d'état, meddling in a democratic election, or
secretly aiding foreign dissident groups.
In Covert Regime Change , Lindsey A.
O'Rourke shows us how states really act when trying to overthrow
another state. She argues that conventional focus on overt cases
misses the basic causes of regime change. O'Rourke provides
substantive evidence of types of security interests that drive
states to intervene. Offensive operations aim to overthrow a
current military rival or break up a rival alliance. Preventive
operations seek to stop a state from taking certain actions, such
as joining a rival alliance, that may make them a future security
threat. Hegemonic operations try to maintain a hierarchical
relationship between the intervening state and the target
government. Despite the prevalence of covert attempts at regime
change, most operations fail to remain covert and spark blowback in
unanticipated ways.
Covert Regime Change assembles an
original dataset of all American regime change operations during
the Cold War. This fund of information shows the United States was
ten times more likely to try covert rather than overt regime change
during the Cold War. Her dataset allows O'Rourke to address three
foundational questions: What motivates states to attempt foreign
regime change? Why do states prefer to conduct these operations
covertly rather than overtly? How successful are such missions in
achieving their foreign policy goals?
Determinants of Democratization
2010,2012
What are the determinants of democratization? Do the factors that move countries toward democracy also help them refrain from backsliding toward autocracy? This book attempts to answer these questions through a combination of a statistical analysis of social, economic, and international determinants of regime change in 165 countries around the world in 1972–2006, and case study work on nine episodes of democratization occurring in Argentina, Bolivia, Hungary, Nepal, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, Turkey, and Uruguay. The findings suggest that democracy is promoted by long-term structural forces such as economic prosperity, but also by peaceful popular uprisings and the institutional setup of authoritarian regimes. In the short-run, however, elite actors may play a key role, particularly through the importance of intra-regime splits. Jan Teorell argues that these results have important repercussions both for current theories of democratization and for the international community's effort in developing policies for democracy promotion.
Too much, too soon? A review of the effects of increasing wildfire frequency on tree mortality and regeneration in temperate eucalypt forests
by
Nitschke, Craig R.
,
Fairman, Thomas A.
,
Bennett, Lauren T.
in
Case studies
,
Climate change
,
Eucalyptus
2016
In temperate Australia, wildfires are predicted to be more frequent and severe under climate change. This could lead to marked changes in tree mortality and regeneration in the region’s predominant eucalypt forests, which have been burned repeatedly by extensive wildfires in the period 2003–14. Recent studies have applied alternative stable state models to select ‘fire sensitive’ forest types, but comparable models have not been rigorously examined in relation to the more extensive ‘fire tolerant’ forests in the region. We review the effects of increasing wildfire frequency on tree mortality and regeneration in temperate forests of Victoria, south-eastern Australia, based on the functional traits of the dominant eucalypts: those that are typically killed by wildfire to regenerate from seed (‘obligate seeders’) and those that mostly survive to resprout (‘resprouters’). In Victoria, over 4.3 million ha of eucalypt forest has been burned by wildfire in the last decade (2003–14), roughly equivalent to the cumulative area burned in the previous 50 years (1952–2002; 4.4 million ha). This increased wildfire activity has occurred regardless of several advancements in fire management, and has resulted in over 350 000 ha of eucalypt forest being burned twice or more by wildfire at short (≤11 year) intervals. Historical and recent evidence indicates that recurrent wildfires threaten the persistence of the ‘fire sensitive’ obligate seeder eucalypt forests, which can facilitate a shift to non-forest states if successive fires occur within the trees’ primary juvenile period (1–20 years). Our review also highlights potential for structural and state changes in the ‘fire tolerant’ resprouter forests, particularly if recurrent severe wildfires kill seedlings and increase tree mortality. We present conceptual models of state changes in temperate eucalypt forests with increasing wildfire frequency, and highlight knowledge gaps relating to the development and persistence of alternative states driven by changes in fire regimes.
Journal Article
Covert regime change : America's secret Cold War
\"This study is the first to systematically assemble an original dataset of all American regime change operations during the Cold War. The United States attempted more than 10 times more covert than overt regime changes. The author asks three questions: What motivates states to attempt foreign regime changes? Why do states prefer to conduct these operations covertly, as opposed to overtly? How successful are these missions in achieving their foreign policy goals?\"-- Provided by publisher.
biogeographic model of fire regimes in Australia: current and future implications
2010
Patterns of fire regimes across Australia exhibit biogeographic variation in response to four processes. Variations in area burned and fire frequency result from differences in the rates of 'switching' of biomass growth, availability to burn, fire weather and ignition. Therefore differing processes limit fire (i.e. the lowest rate of switching) in differing ecosystems. Current and future trends in fire frequency were explored on this basis. Case studies of forests (cool temperate to tropical) and woodlands (temperate to arid) were examined. These represent a broad range of Australian biomes and current fire regimes. Information on the four processes was applied to each case study and the potential minimum length of interfire interval was predicted and compared to current trends. The potential effects of global change on the processes were then assessed and future trends in fire regimes were predicted. Variations in fire regimes are primarily related to fluctuations in available moisture and dominance by either woody or herbaceous plant cover. Fire in woodland communities (dry climates) is limited by growth of herbaceous fuels (biomass), whereas in forests (wet climates) limitation is by fuel moisture (availability to burn) and fire weather. Increasing dryness in woodland communities will decrease potential fire frequency, while the opposite applies in forests. In the tropics, both forms of limitation are weak due to the annual wet/dry climate. Future change may therefore be constrained. Increasing dryness may diminish fire activity over much of Australia (dominance of dry woodlands), though increases may occur in temperate forests. Elevated CO₂ effects may confound or reinforce these trends. The prognosis for the future fire regime in Australia is therefore uncertain.
Journal Article
A Burning Story: The Role of Fire in the History of Life
2009
Ecologists, biogeographers, and paleobotanists have long thought that climate and soils controlled the distribution of ecosystems, with the role of fire getting only limited appreciation. Here we review evidence from different disciplines demonstrating that wildfire appeared concomitant with the origin of terrestrial plants and played an important role throughout the history of life. The importance of fire has waxed and waned in association with changes in climate and paleoatmospheric conditions. Well before the emergence of humans on Earth, fire played a key role in the origins of plant adaptations as well as in the distribution of ecosystems. Humans initiated a new stage in ecosystem fire, using it to make the Earth more suited to their lifestyle. However, as human populations have expanded their use of fire, their actions have come to dominate some ecosystems and change natural processes in ways that threaten the sustainability of some landscapes.
Journal Article
The Regime Shifts Database: a framework for analyzing regime shifts in social-ecological systems
by
Rocha, Juan C.
,
Biggs, Reinette
,
Peterson, Garry D.
in
Agricultural management
,
Agriculture
,
alternative stable state
2018
Regime shifts, i.e., large, persistent, and usually unexpected changes in ecosystems and social-ecological systems, can have major impacts on ecosystem services, and consequently, on human well-being. However, the vulnerability of different regions to various regime shifts is largely unknown because evidence for the existence of regime shifts in different ecosystems and parts of the world is scattered and highly uneven. Furthermore, research tends to focus on individual regime shifts rather than comparisons across regime shifts, limiting the potential for identifying common drivers that could reduce the risk of multiple regime shifts simultaneously. Here, we introduce the Regime Shifts Database, an open-access database that systematically synthesizes information on social-ecological regime shifts across a wide range of systems using a consistent, comparative framework, providing a wide-ranging information resource for environmental planning, assessment, research, and teaching initiatives. The database currently contains 28 generic types of regime shifts and > 300 specific case studies. Each entry provides a literature-based synthesis of the key drivers and feedbacks underlying the regime shift, as well as impacts on ecosystem services and human well-being, and possible management options. Across the 28 regime shifts, climate change and agriculture-related activities are the most prominent among a wide range of drivers. Biodiversity, fisheries, and aquatic ecosystems are particularly widely affected, as are key aspects of human well-being, including livelihoods, food and nutrition, and an array of cultural ecosystem services. We hope that the database will stimulate further research and teaching on regime shifts that can inform policy and practice and ultimately enhance our collective ability to manage and govern large, abrupt, systemic changes in the Anthropocene.
Journal Article