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Despite in‐situ observations of perennial firn aquifers (PFAs) at specific locations of the Antarctic ice sheet, a comprehensive continent‐wide mapping of PFA distribution is currently lacking. We present an estimate of their distribution across Antarctica in the form of a probability assessment using a Monte Carlo technique. Our approach involves a novel methodology that combines observations from Sentinel‐1 and Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) with output from a regional climate model. To evaluate our method, we conduct an extensive comparison with Operation Ice Bridge observations from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Application to Antarctica reveals high PFA probabilities in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP), particularly along its northern, northwestern, and western coastlines, as well as on the Wilkins, Müller, and George VI ice shelves. Outside the AP, PFA probability is low, except for some locations with marginally higher probabilities, such as on the Abbot, Totten, and Shackleton ice shelves. Plain Language Summary We explore the presence of subsurface water storage within the firn layer in Antarctica, known as perennial firn aquifers (PFA), using a new method that combines satellite data and climate models. These PFAs, previously identified in Greenland, store and transmit meltwater, and could influence ice‐sheet behavior. Our study maps the likelihood of PFAs across Antarctica, finding high probabilities along the Antarctic Peninsula's northern and western coasts, as well as on specific ice shelves. Outside this region, PFAs are unlikely, except for a few spots with somewhat enhanced probability on Abbot, Totten, and Shackleton ice shelves. This inventory enhances our understanding of Antarctic hydrology and has broader implications for understanding ice‐sheet dynamics. Key Points An innovative aquifer detection method, combining satellite and regional climate model data, is applied to Antarctica The evaluation of the methodology in Greenland, showing 91% correspondence, suggests good adaptability for Antarctica The Antarctic Peninsula stands out as the only region with high aquifer probability; in the rest of Antarctica, the likelihood is low

The Paris Agreement of COP21 set a goal of holding global average temperature increases to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. This is particularly relevant for the African context where temperatures are likely to warm faster than the global average and where the magnitude of change will be regionally heterogeneous. Additionally, many biogeophysical and socioeconomic systems are particularly vulnerable to change in both means and extremes. In this paper we contextualise the lack of regional climate information over Africa at global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels through a short review of the literature. We show most studies that provide information over Africa under specific GWLs have used data from global models, however global models poorly resolve local scale forcing (e.g. topography) nor the internal climate variability of a region. Although downscaling using regional climate models can address these issues we find only one paper that has used downscaled data for GWL studies over Africa. Articles in this focus collection use data from global climate models and the co-ordinated regional downscaling experiment to elucidate the regional and local scale climate responses to various warming levels. This may provide information that contributes meaningfully to the UNFCCC negotiation process and also for the development of adaptation and mitigation policies.

A number of studies have illustrated the utility of environmental DNA (eDNA) for detecting marine vertebrates. However, little is known about the fate and transport of eDNA in the ocean, thus limiting the ability to interpret eDNA measurements. In the present study, we explore how fate and transport processes affect oceanic eDNA in Monterey Bay, California, USA (MB). Regional ocean modeling predictions of advection and mixing are used for an approximately 10,000 km2 area in and around MB to simulate the transport of eDNA. These predictions along with realistic settling rates and first-order decay rate constants are applied as inputs into a particle tracking model to investigate the displacement and spread of eDNA from its release location. We found that eDNA can be transported on the order of tens of kilometers in a few days and that horizontal advection, decay, and settling have greater impacts on the displacement of eDNA in the ocean than mixing. The eDNA particle tracking model was applied to identify possible origin locations of eDNA measured in MB using a quantitative PCR assay for Northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax). We found that eDNA likely originated from within 40 km and south of the sampling site if it had been shed approximately 4 days prior to sampling.

Reliable and highly resolved information about onshore wind energy potential (WEP) is essential for expanding renewable energy to eventually achieve carbon neutrality. In this pilot study, simulated 60 m wind speeds (ws60m) from a km‐scale, convection‐permitting 3.3 km‐resolution ICON‐LAM simulation and often‐used 31 km‐resolution ERA5 reanalysis are evaluated at 18 weather masts. The estimated ICON‐LAM and ERA5 WEPs are then compared using an innovative approach with 1.8 million eligible wind turbine placements over southern Africa. Results show ERA5 underestimates ws60m with a Mean Error (ME) of −1.8 m s−1 (−27%). In contrast, ICON‐LAM shows a ME of −0.1 m s−1 (−1.8%), resulting in a much higher average WEP by 48% compared to ERA5. A combined Global Wind Atlas‐ERA5 product reduces the ws60m underestimation of ERA5 to −0.3 m s−1 (−4.7%), but shows a similar average WEP compared to ERA5 resulting from the WEP spatial heterogeneity. Plain Language Summary Onshore wind energy is expected to play a major role in the global energy transition. However, reliable and highly resolved information on the onshore wind energy potential (WEP) crucial for expansion planning is missing over southern Africa. This study evaluated high resolution 3.3 km ICON‐LAM atmospheric simulations and 31 km ERA5 reanalysis against 60 m wind speed (ws60m) observations and compared the corresponding derived WEPs. The results show that ERA5 underestimates ws60m by 27%, resulting in a 48% lower WEP assessment than ICON‐LAM, whose ws60m simulation results show a very small bias. Underestimation of wind energy yields may hinder further expansion of wind energy, as less economic performance is expected, which underlines the importance of highly resolved weather data. Key Points Simulated ERA5 and km‐scale ICON‐LAM wind speeds are evaluated and corresponding southern Africa wind energy potentials are calculated ERA5 underestimates 60 m wind speed, whereas ICON‐LAM produces lower biases in the wind speed simulations Higher wind energy potentials are revealed from wind speeds simulated by ICON‐LAM compared to ERA5, which is often used for such assessments

This study uses output of a high-resolution (5.5 km) regional atmospheric climate model to describe the present-day (1979–2012) climate of Patagonia, with a particular focus on the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Patagonian ice fields. Through a comparison with available in situ observations, it is shown that the model is able to simulate the sharp climate gradients in western Patagonia. The southern Andes are an efficient barrier for the prevalent atmospheric flow, generating strong orographic uplift and precipitation throughout the entire year. The model suggests extreme orographic precipitation west of the Andes divide, with annual precipitation rates of >5 to 34 m w.e. (water equivalent), and a clear rain shadow east of the divide. These modeled precipitation rates are supported qualitatively by available precipitation stations and SMB estimates on the ice fields derived from firn cores. For the period 1979–2012, a slight atmospheric cooling at upper ice field elevations is found, leading to a small but insignificant increase in the ice field SMB.

Saltwater intrusion is a critical concern for coastal communities due to its impacts on fresh ecosystems and civil infrastructure. Declining recharge and rising sea level are the two dominant drivers of saltwater intrusion along the land‐ocean continuum, but there are currently no global estimates of future saltwater intrusion that synthesize these two spatially variable processes. Here, for the first time, we provide a novel assessment of global saltwater intrusion risk by integrating future recharge and sea level rise while considering the unique geology and topography of coastal regions. We show that nearly 77% of global coastal areas below 60° north will undergo saltwater intrusion by 2100, with different dominant drivers. Climate‐driven changes in subsurface water replenishment (recharge) is responsible for the high‐magnitude cases of saltwater intrusion, whereas sea level rise and coastline migration are responsible for the global pervasiveness of saltwater intrusion and have a greater effect on low‐lying areas. Plain Language Summary Coastal watersheds around the globe are facing perilous changes to their freshwater systems. Driven by climatic changes in recharge and sea level working in tandem, sea water encroaches into coastal groundwater aquifers and consequently salinizes fresh groundwater, in a process called saltwater intrusion. To assess the vulnerability of coastal watersheds to future saltwater intrusion, we applied projections of sea level and groundwater recharge to a global analytical modeling framework. Nearly 77% of the global coast is expected to undergo measurable salinization by the year 2100. Changes in recharge have a greater effect on the magnitude of salinization, whereas sea level rise drives the widespread extensiveness of salinization around the global coast. Our results highlight the variable pressures of climate change on coastal regions and have implications for prioritizing management solutions. Key Points First global analysis of future saltwater intrusion vulnerability responding to spatially variable recharge and sea level rise is provided Recharge drives the extreme cases of saltwater intrusion, while sea level rise is responsible for its global pervasiveness Nearly 77% of global coastal areas below 60° north will undergo saltwater intrusion by 2100

Aerosol radiative effects and thermodynamic responses over South Asia are examined with the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) for March 2012. Model results of aerosol optical depths (AODs) and extinction profiles are analyzed and compared to satellite retrievals and two ground-based lidars located in northern India. The WRF-Chem model is found to heavily underestimate the AOD during the simulated pre-monsoon month and about 83 % of the model's low bias is due to aerosol extinctions below  ∼  2 km. Doubling the calculated aerosol extinctions below 850 hPa generates much better agreement with the observed AOD and extinction profiles averaged over South Asia. To separate the effect of absorption and scattering properties, two runs were conducted: in one run (Case I), the calculated scattering and absorption coefficients were increased proportionally, while in the second run (Case II) only the calculated aerosol scattering coefficient was increased. With the same AOD and extinction profiles, the two runs produce significantly different radiative effects over land and oceans. On the regional mean basis, Case I generates 48 % more heating in the atmosphere and 21 % more dimming at the surface than Case II. Case I also produces stronger cooling responses over the land from the longwave radiation adjustment and boundary layer mixing. These rapid adjustments offset the stronger radiative heating in Case I and lead to an overall lower-troposphere cooling up to −0.7 K day−1, which is smaller than that in Case II. Over the ocean, direct radiative effects dominate the heating rate changes in the lower atmosphere lacking such surface and lower atmosphere adjustments due to fixed sea surface temperature, and the strongest atmospheric warming is obtained in Case I. Consequently, atmospheric dynamics (boundary layer heights and meridional circulation) and thermodynamic processes (water vapor and cloudiness) are shown to respond differently between Case I and Case II, underlining the importance of determining the exact portion of scattering or absorbing aerosols that lead to the underestimation of aerosol optical depth in the model. In addition, the model results suggest that both the direct radiative effect and rapid thermodynamic responses need to be quantified for understanding aerosol radiative impacts.

Anthropogenic aerosols (AER) and greenhouse gases (GHG)—the leading drivers of the forced historical change—produce different large‐scale climate response patterns, with correlations trending from negative to positive over the past century. To understand what caused the time‐evolving comparison between GHG and AER response patterns, we apply a low‐frequency component analysis to historical surface ocean changes from CESM1 single‐forcing large‐ensemble simulations. While GHG response is characterized by its first leading mode, AER response consists of two distinct modes. The first one, featuring long‐term global AER increase and global cooling, opposes GHG response patterns up to the mid‐twentieth century. The second one, featuring multidecadal variations in AER distributions and interhemispheric asymmetric surface ocean changes, appears to reinforce the GHG warming effect over recent decades. AER thus can have both competing and synergistic effects with GHG as their emissions change temporally and spatially. Plain Language Summary Anthropogenically forced climate change over the past century has been mainly caused by two types of emissions: greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols (AER). In general, sulfate aerosols from industrial sources can reflect shortwave radiation to yield a cooling effect opposite to the GHG warming effect. However, model simulations isolating GHG and AER forcings show that the large‐scale climate effect of AER does not always dampen the GHG effect. Instead, over recent decades, AER have produced surface ocean response patterns more like the GHG response. Using a novel low‐frequency statistical decomposion, we find that aerosols have driven two distinct modes of climate change patterns over the historical period. The first mode is associated with global aerosol increase, resulting in global‐wide cooling damping the GHG‐induced warming. The second mode is associated with the shift in aerosol emissions from north America/western Europe to southeast Asia, which drives regional changes enhancing the GHG effect. Our results highlight the importance of considering the temporal and spatial evolutions of AER emissions in assessing GHG and AER climate effects and attributing historical anthropogenic climate changes to GHG and AER forcings. Key Points Over the past century, GHG forced response is characterized by a single dominant mode while AER response consists of two distinct modes Monotonic global aerosol increases, mainly from Southeast Asia emissions, produce a global aerosol cooling mode opposing greenhouse warming Important in recent decades, geographic redistribution of AER emissions produces a second aerosol mode that reinforces greenhouse warming

Fresh submarine groundwater discharge (FSGD) can deliver significant fluxes of water and solutes from land to sea. In the Arctic, which accounts for ∼34% of coastlines globally, direct observations and knowledge of FSGD are scarce. Through integration of observations and process‐based models, we found that regardless of ice‐bonded permafrost depth at the shore, summer SGD flow dynamics along portions of the Beaufort Sea coast of Alaska are similar to those in lower latitudes. Calculated summer FSGD fluxes in the Arctic are generally higher relative to low latitudes. The FSGD organic carbon and nitrogen fluxes are likely larger than summer riverine input. The FSGD also has very high CO2 making it a potentially significant source of inorganic carbon. Thus, the biogeochemistry of Arctic coastal waters is potentially influenced by groundwater inputs during summer. These water and solute fluxes will likely increase as coastal permafrost across the Arctic thaws. Plain Language Summary Groundwater flows from land to sea, transporting freshwater, organic matter, nutrients, and other solutes that impact coastal ecosystems. However, along coasts of the rapidly‐warming Arctic, there is limited knowledge regarding how much fresh groundwater enters the ocean. Using field observations and numerical models, we show that groundwater flowing from tundra in northern coastal Alaska carries large amounts of freshwater, organic matter, and carbon dioxide to the Arctic lagoons during summer. These inputs are likely significant to coastal biogeochemical cycling and marine food webs. Groundwater discharge and the associated transport of dissolved materials are expected to increase due to longer periods of above‐zero temperatures that thaw frozen soils below the tundra. Key Points Summer fresh submarine groundwater discharge (FSGD) to the Alaskan Beaufort Sea is only 3%–7% of rivers but carries as much organic matter Summer FSGD delivers a median of 116 (interquartile range: 35–405) and 6 (2–21) kg/d per km dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen Fresh groundwater at the beach of Simpson Lagoon (SL) has a median PCO2 of ∼33,000 μatm implying substantial CO2 flux

Global warming is shifting the thermal dynamics of lakes, with resulting climatic variability heavily affecting their mixing dynamics. We present a dual ensemble workflow coupling climate models with lake models. We used a large set of simulations across multiple domains, multi‐scenario, and multi GCM‐ RCM combinations from CORDEX data. We forced a set of multiple hydrodynamic lake models by these multiple climate simulations to explore climate change impacts on lakes. We also quantified the contributions from the different models to the overall uncertainty. We employed this workflow to investigate the effects of climate change on Lake Sevan (Armenia). We predicted for the end of the 21st century, under RCP 8.5, a sharp increase in surface temperature (4.3±0.7K)$(4.3\\pm 0.7\\,\\mathrm{K})$and substantial bottom warming (1.7±0.7K)$(1.7\\pm 0.7\\,\\mathrm{K})$ , longer stratification periods (+55 days) and disappearance of ice cover leading to a shift in mixing regime. Increased insufficient cooling during warmer winters points to the vulnerability of Lake Sevan to climate change. Our workflow leverages the strengths of multiple models at several levels of the model chain to provide a more robust projection and at the same time a better uncertainty estimate that accounts for the contributions of the different model levels to overall uncertainty. Although for specific variables, for example, summer bottom temperature, single lake models may perform better, the full ensemble provides a robust estimate of thermal dynamics that has a high transferability so that our workflow can be a blueprint for climate impact studies in other systems. Plain Language Summary Lakes are threatened by climate change because of effects related to the increasing temperature, long stratification, and ice disappearance. One of the best tools to predict these effects on lakes is numerical modeling of lakes that benefit from climate modeling. Climate modeling is normally done globally or in the so‐called general circulation model (GCM) or more detailed simulations on regional levels (RCM) like the CORDEX data set. In this study, we used the CORDEX data, which employed several climate models from several regions (domains) for several climatic scenarios (emissions scenarios) to force multiple lake models. This approach gave us an extensive prediction about various possible outputs. We applied this approach to Lake Sevan (Armenia), a large mountain lake. Our study predicted for the worst‐case scenario, an increase of the surface temperature by almost 4.3 K by the end of the 21st century, 1.75 K for bottom temperature, a total disappearance of ice cover, and about 55 extra days of stratification, showing its vulnerability for climate change. This optimized workflow uses the strength of a wide variety of models on the climate and lake levels to better understand the impact of climate change and quantify the sources of uncertainty in the workflow. Key Points Dual multi‐model ensemble of climate data and lake models is used for robust projections of climate change impacts Variance decomposition effectively identified the sources of uncertainty and contributions of different models to the overall uncertainty Significant warming, longer stratification periods, and loss of ice cover are predicted for Lake Sevan by the end of the 21st century