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Extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) has healthy benefits for noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). However, limited evidence is available about the effects of liver disease and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We evaluate whether dose-increased consumption of EVOO is associated with a lower prevalence of NAFLD and if these effects vary based on body weight. The study included 2436 subjects with a 33% NAFLD prevalence. Daily EVOO was categorized into tertiles: low (0–24 g/day), moderate (25–37 g/day), and high consumption (>37 g/day). Subjects were also classified by body mass index (BMI) as normo-weight (18.5–24.9), overweight (25–29.9), and obese (≥30). Logistic regression analysis was applied to calculate odds ratios (ORs) for NAFLD, considering a 20-gram increment in EVOO intake and accounting for EVOO categories combined with BMI classes. The ORs were 0.83 (0.74;0.93) C.I. p = 0.0018 for continuous EVOO, 0.89 (0.69;1.15) C.I. p = 0.37, and 0.73 (0.55;0.97) C.I. p = 0.03 for moderate and high consumption, respectively, when compared to low consumption. Overall, the percent relative risk reductions (RRR) for NAFLD from low to high EVOO consumption were 18% (16.4%;19.2%) C.I. and 26% (25%;27.4%) C.I. in overweight and obese subjects. High EVOO consumption is associated with a reduced risk of NAFLD. This effect is amplified in overweight subjects and even more in obese subjects.

Logistic regression models are frequently used in cohort studies to determine the association between treatment and dichotomous outcomes in the presence of confounding variables. In a logistic regression model, the association between exposure and outcome is measured using the odds ratio (OR). The OR can be difficult to interpret and only approximates the relative risk (RR) in certain restrictive settings. Several authors have suggested that for dichotomous outcomes, RRs, RR reductions, absolute risk reductions, and the number needed to treat (NNT) are more clinically meaningful measures of treatment effect. We describe a method for deriving clinically meaningful measures of treatment effect from a logistic regression model. This method involves determining the probability of the outcome if each subject in the cohort was treated and if each subject was untreated. These probabilities are then averaged across the study cohort to determine the average probability of the outcome in the population if all subjects were treated and if they were untreated. Risk differences, RRs, and NNTs were derived using a logistic regression model. Clinically meaningful measures of effect can be derived from a logistic regression model in a cohort study. These methods can also be used in randomized controlled trials when logistic regression is used to adjust for possible imbalance in prognostically important baseline covariates.

Preimplantation genetic testing for polygenic disease risk (PGT-P) represents a new tool to aid in embryo selection. Previous studies demonstrated the ability to obtain necessary genotypes in the embryo with accuracy equivalent to in adults. When applied to select adult siblings with known type I diabetes status, a reduction in disease incidence of 45–72% compared to random selection was achieved. This study extends analysis to 11,883 sibling pairs to evaluate clinical utility of embryo selection with PGT-P. Results demonstrate simultaneous relative risk reduction of all diseases tested in parallel, which included diabetes, cancer, and heart disease, and indicate applicability beyond patients with a known family history of disease.

Abstract Aims Renal denervation has been shown to lower blood pressure in sham-controlled trials and represents a device-based treatment option for hypertension. We sought to project clinical event reductions after radiofrequency renal denervation using a novel modelling approach. Methods and results The Global SYMPLICITY Registry is a global, prospective all-comer registry to evaluate safety and efficacy after renal denervation. For this analysis, change in office systolic blood pressure from baseline was calculated from reported follow-up in the Global SYMPLICITY Registry. Relative risks for death and other cardiovascular events as well as numbers needed to treat for event avoidance were obtained for the respective blood pressure reductions based on previously reported meta-regression analyses for the full cohort and high-risk subgroups including type 2 diabetes, chronic kidney disease, resistant hypertension, and high basal cardiovascular risk. Average baseline office systolic blood pressure and reduction estimates for the full cohort (N = 2651) were 166±25 and −14.8 ± 0.4 mmHg, respectively. Mean reductions in blood pressure ranged from −11.0–−21.8 mmHg for the studied high-risk subgroups. Projected relative risks ranged from 0.57 for stroke in the resistant hypertension cohort to 0.92 for death in the diabetes cohort. Significant absolute reductions in major adverse cardiovascular events over 3 years compared with the projected control (8.6 ± 0.7% observed vs. 11.7 ± 0.9% for projected control; P < 0.01) were primarily due to reduced stroke incidence. The robustness of findings was confirmed in sensitivity and scenario analyses. Conclusion Model-based projections suggest radiofrequency renal denervation for patients with uncontrolled hypertension adds considerable clinical benefit across a spectrum of different cohort characteristics.

Background: There is controversy regarding whether using fiber-enriched formula affects the incidence of diarrhea among enterally fed patients in our setting. Also, there is a lack of clinical studies about enterally fed patients’ tolerance for feeding and the incidence of diarrhea among patients in the Middle East. This study aimed to assess fiber enrichment’s efficacy in reducing post-enteral feeding bowel intolerance in non-critically ill patients. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study of 55 fiber-free (FF) and 119 fiber-enriched (FE) tube-fed adult patients admitted for five or more days with medical or surgical conditions. Data on patients’ demographics, antibiotics and laxative medications, and gastrointestinal complications were collected. Absolute risk reduction (ARR), relative risk reduction (RRR), and relative risks (RR) were calculated to assess the efficacy of fiber enrichment in reducing post-enteral feeding bowel intolerance. Statistical significance was set at p ≤ 0.05. Results: The rate of diarrhea dropped from 54.5% for FF to 29% for FE groups, with an ARR of 25.1% (95% CI 24.6–25.6, p < 0.001) and an RRR of 64.1%, and RR was 0.54, reflecting a reduction in the rate of diarrhea by 46% after fiber enrichment. The rate of significant weight loss dropped from 45.5% without enrichment to only 26.9% with enrichment, with an ARR of 18.6% (95% CI: 18.0–19.2, p < 0.001) and RRR of 40.9%, and RR was 0.59, reflecting a 41% reduction in significant weight loss after fiber enrichment. After adjusting for some potential confounders, FF formula was a significant predictor of diarrhea (OR = 3.04, 95% CI 1.49–6.19, p = 0.002) and significant weight loss (OR = 2.37, 95% CI 1.16–4.84, p = 0.018) in tube feeding, while antibiotic intake was also a significant predictor of only diarrhea (OR = 2.68, 95% CI 1.12–6.38, p = 0.026). Conclusions: This study demonstrated the beneficial effect of fiber supplementation in minimizing diarrhea in hospitalized patients receiving tube feeding. Antibiotic usage must be scrutinized and stopped if possible. Overall, the study provides compelling evidence supporting fiber-enriched enteral feeding, though further discussion on potential confounders and clinical applications would enhance its impact. Further, well-designed RCTs are needed to prove the efficacy of fiber-enriched feeds used in enteral tube feeding in non-critically ill patients.

Italy was the first western country to be hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and has suffered nearly 200,000 deaths so far during the four years of the pandemic. In March 2020, Italy first deployed COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) to treat hospitalized patients. Despite this initial effort, the proportion of COVID-19 patients treated with CCP during the first two years of the pandemic (2020–2021) was very low (approximately 2% of individuals hospitalized for COVID-19). In this study, we estimated the number of actual inpatient lives saved by CCP treatment in Italy using national mortality data, and CCP mortality reduction data from meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials and real-world data. We also estimated the potential number of lives saved if CCP had been deployed to 100% of hospitalized patients or used in 15% to 75% of outpatients. According to these models, CCP usage in 2020–2021 saved between 385–1304 lives, but this number would have increased to 17,751–60,079 if 100% of inpatients had been transfused with CCP. Similarly, broader (15–75%) usage in outpatients could have prevented 21,187–190,689 hospitalizations (desaturating hospitals) and 6144–81,926 deaths. These data have important implications for convalescent plasma use in future infectious disease emergencies.

Relative risk reduction and absolute risk reduction measures in the evaluation of clinical trial data are poorly understood by health professionals and the public. The absence of reported absolute risk reduction in COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials can lead to outcome reporting bias that affects the interpretation of vaccine efficacy. The present article uses clinical epidemiologic tools to critically appraise reports of efficacy in Pfzier/BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 mRNA vaccine clinical trials. Based on data reported by the manufacturer for Pfzier/BioNTech vaccine BNT162b2, this critical appraisal shows: relative risk reduction, 95.1%; 95% CI, 90.0% to 97.6%; p = 0.016; absolute risk reduction, 0.7%; 95% CI, 0.59% to 0.83%; p < 0.000. For the Moderna vaccine mRNA-1273, the appraisal shows: relative risk reduction, 94.1%; 95% CI, 89.1% to 96.8%; p = 0.004; absolute risk reduction, 1.1%; 95% CI, 0.97% to 1.32%; p < 0.000. Unreported absolute risk reduction measures of 0.7% and 1.1% for the Pfzier/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, respectively, are very much lower than the reported relative risk reduction measures. Reporting absolute risk reduction measures is essential to prevent outcome reporting bias in evaluation of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy.

Analysis of the relative risk of the spread of dengue fever (DF) in Makassar city, Indonesia, needs to be done to see the which areas are at high risk of DF. Bayesian Autoregressive Conditional (CAR) is used in the mapping model of this disease. This model is Able to model of relative risk by taking into account the smoothing of that relative risk and entering spatial information to reduce the error of the estimated parameters in order the reliable relative risk models is Obtained. In this study, the relative risk value of the spread of DF was Analyzed using the localized Bayesian models CAR. Under this model the geographical mapping of DF in Makassar can be identified for each sub-district and shows that Makassar is still very vulnerable to DF.

Background Group B Streptococcus (GBS) infections are a major cause of invasive disease (IGbsD) in young infants and cause miscarriage and stillbirths. Immunization of pregnant women against GBS in addition to intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis could prevent disease. Establishing accurate serological markers of protection against IGbsD could enable use of efficient clinical trial designs for vaccine development and licensure, without needing to undertake efficacy trials in prohibitively large number of mother-infant dyads. The association of maternal naturally acquired serotype-specific anti-capsular antibodies (IgG) against serotype-specific IGbsD in their infants has been studied in case-control studies. The statistical models used so far to estimate IGbsD risk from these case-control studies assumed that the antibody concentrations measured sharing the same disease status are sampled from the same population, not allowing for differences between mothers colonised by GBS and mothers also potentially infected (e.g urinary tract infection or chorioamnionitis) by GBS during pregnancy. This distinction is relevant as infants born from infected mothers with occult medical illness may be exposed to GBS prior to the mother developing antibodies measured in maternal or infant sera. Methods Unsupervised mixture model averaging (MMA) is proposed and applied here to accurately estimate infant IGbsD risk from case-control study data in presence or absence of antibody concentration subgroups potentially associated to maternal GBS carriage or infection. MMA estimators are compared to non-parametric disease risk estimators in simulation studies and by analysis of two published GBS case-control studies. Results MMA provides more accurate relative risk estimates under a broad range of data simulation scenarios and more accurate absolute disease risk estimates when the proportion of IGbsD cases with high antibody levels is not ignorable. MMA estimates of the relative and absolute disease risk curves are more amenable to clinical interpretation compared to non-parametric estimates with no detectable overfitting of the data. Antibody concentration thresholds predictive of protection from infant IGbsD estimated by MMA from maternal and infant sera are consistent with non-parametric estimates. Conclusions MMA is a flexible and robust method for design, accurate analysis and clinical interpretation of case-control studies estimating relative and absolute IGbsD risk from antibody concentrations measured at or after birth.

\"Necessity is the mother of invention:\" An adage was brought to life with the emergence of the mRNA vaccine against the backdrop of the foreboding and mercurial COVID-19 pandemic. Considering a negligible adverse-effect profile and a break-neck manufacturing speed, it shone bright as the ideal vaccine candidate. However, \"all that glitters is not gold,\" as was evidenced by the significant reactogenicity, a host of multi-systemic side-effects, that are being reported by the vaccine recipients; which is palpably resulting in a shift of emotions for the vaccine, accounting for vaccine hesitancy. Anaphylaxis, antibody-dependent enhancements, and deaths, comprise the most serious side-effects, albeit occurring in sparing numbers. Storage and transportation require fastidious temperatures, rendering it substantially inaccessible to a country like India. The biggest jolt, however, was the unfolding of the biases in reporting vaccine efficacy, as only the attractively high numbers of the relatively equivocal relative risk reduction were reported while keeping at bay the meager numbers of the more forthright absolute risk reduction. Notwithstanding the fallacies, the mRNA vaccine still promises hope; and with the right precautions and finesse, can be potentiated, as \"a watched pot never boils.\"