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This paper reconciles the asymptotic disagreement between Bayesian and frequentist inference in set-identified models by adopting a multiple-prior (robust) Bayesian approach. We propose new tools for Bayesian inference in set-identified models and show that they have a well-defined posterior interpretation in finite samples and are asymptotically valid from the frequentist perspective. The main idea is to construct a prior class that removes the source of the disagreement: the need to specify an unrevisable prior for the structural parameter given the reduced-form parameter. The corresponding class of posteriors can be summarized by reporting the ‘posterior lower and upper probabilities’ of a given event and/or the ‘set of posterior means’and the associated ‘robust credible region’. We show that the set of posterior means is a consistent estimator of the true identified set and the robust credible region has the correct frequentist asymptotic coverage for the true identified set if it is convex. Otherwise, the method provides posterior inference about the convex hull of the identified set. For impulse-response analysis in set-identified Structural Vector Autoregressions, the new tools can be used to overcome or quantify the sensitivity of standard Bayesian inference to the choice of an unrevisable prior.

ObjectiveAdopting a healthy lifestyle, including regular physical activity, is widely believed to decrease cancer risk. This study aimed to quantitatively establish the dose-response relationships between total physical activity and the risk of breast, colon, lung, gastric, and liver cancers.MethodsA systematic review and dose-response analysis were conducted using PubMed and Embase from January 1, 1980 to March 20, 2023. Prospective cohort studies that examined the association between physical activity and the risks of any of the 5 outcomes were included. The search was confined to publications in the English language with a specific focus on human studies. Physical activity is standardized by using the data from US National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) and the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database.ResultsA total of 98 studies, involving a combined population of 16,418,361 individuals, were included in the analysis. Among the included studies, 57 focused on breast cancer, 17 on lung cancer, 23 on colon cancer, 5 on gastric cancer, and 7 on liver cancer. Overall, elevated levels of physical activity exhibited an inverse correlation with the risk of cancer. The dose-response curve for lung cancer exhibited a non-linear pattern, with the greatest benefit risk reduction observed at 13,200 MET-minutes/week of physical activity, resulting in a 14.7% reduction in risk (relative risk 0.853, uncertainty interval 0.798 to 0.912) compared to the inactive population. In contrast, the dose-response curves for colon, gastric, breast, and liver cancers showed linear associations, indicating that heightened levels of total physical activity were consistently associated with reduced cancer risks. However, the increase in physical activity yielded a smaller risk reduction for colon and gastric cancers compared to breast and liver cancers. Compared to individuals with insufficient activity (total activity level < 600 MET-minutes/week), individuals with high levels of activity (≥ 8,000 MET-minutes/week) experienced a 10.3% (0.897, 0.860 to 0.934) risk reduction for breast cancer; 5.9% (0.941, 0.884 to 1.001) for lung cancer; 7.1% (0.929, 0.909 to 0.949) for colon cancer; 5.1% (0.949, 0.908 to 0.992) for gastric cancer; 17.1% (0.829, 0.760 to 0.903) for liver cancer.ConclusionsThis study demonstrated a significant inverse relationship between total physical activity and the risk of breast, gastric, liver, colon, and lung cancers.

This paper serves as a comprehensive “starter pack” for electrical diagnostic methods for power transformers. It offers a thorough review of electrical diagnostic techniques, detailing the required instrumentation and highlighting key research directions. The methods discussed include frequency response analysis, partial discharge testing, dielectric dissipation factor (tan delta), direct current (DC) insulation resistance, polarization index, transformer turns ratio test, recovery voltage measurement, polarization–depolarization currents, frequency domain spectroscopy, breakdown voltage testing, and power factor and capacitance testing. Additionally, the paper brings attention to less-explored electrical diagnostic techniques from the past decade. For each method, the underlying principles, applications, necessary instrumentation, advantages, and limitations are carefully examined, alongside emerging trends in the field. A notable shift observed over the past decade is the growing emphasis on hybrid diagnostic approaches and artificial intelligence (AI)-driven data analytics for fault detection. This study serves as a structured reference for researchers—particularly those in the early stages of their careers—as well as industry professionals seeking to explore electrical diagnostic techniques for power transformer condition assessment. It also outlines promising research avenues, contributing to the ongoing evolution of transformer diagnostics.

Transducers used in acoustic logging while drilling (ALWD) must be mounted on a drill collar, and their radiation performance is dependent on the employed mounting method. Herein, the complex transmitting voltage response of a while-drilling (WD) monopole acoustic source was calculated through finite-element harmonic-response analysis. Subsequently, the acoustic pressure waveform radiated by the source driven by a half-sine excitation voltage signal was calculated using the complex transmitting voltage response. The calculation results were compared with those obtained using finite-element transient analysis to verify the accuracy of the calculation method. The influence of transducer-mounting methods on the radiation performance of the monopole acoustic source was examined by modifying the material and structural dimensions of the coupling medium between the transducer and drill collar as well as the material and thickness of the protective cover. Numerical simulations were performed, and a transducer-mounting method suitable for ALWD was proposed based on the simulation results. Results showed that soft rubber (as the coupling material; thickness = 2 mm) enabled the WD monopole acoustic source to radiate robust acoustic energy in an infinite fluid. Increasing the height of the coupling material enhanced the radiated acoustic energy and reduced axial vibrations on the drill collar. The radiated acoustic pressure signal was unaffected by a steel protective cover (thickness = 0.5 mm). Conversely, increasing the cover thickness reduced the energy of the radiated acoustic signal. With increasing pulse width of the half-sine excitation voltage signal, the amplitude of the radiated acoustic pressure of the transducer initially increased and then declined, reaching a maximum at a pulse width that was 0.6 times the resonant period. Overall, the findings help in designing acoustic-source structures and excitation signals for ALWD tools.

The strong ground motion effect is amplified or de-amplified due to the change in subsoil condition. Local soil properties prediction is critical for earthquake-safe areas and the earthquake hazard assessment of existing structures. This study was carried out with time-domain 1D Nonlinear analysis to understand the soil response characteristics of the Arifiye district. In this sense, geotechnical drilling at 47 points and surface wave analysis at 44 points were performed. Site response profiles in the study area were analyzed with the DeepSoil program for Mw:7.0 1967 Mudurnu and Mw:7.4 1999 Kocaeli earthquake scenarios. Peak spectral acceleration (Pga) and spectral acceleration (Sa) values were determined in the analysis of the Mudunu scenario as 0.11–0.24 g and 0.44–1 g, respectively. The Kocaeli scenario’s Pga and Sa distribution were obtained in a wide range of 0.2–0.56 g and 0.47–2.3 g, respectively, compared to the Mudurnu scenario. Especially in the Mw:7.4 model, high Pga (> 0.3 g) and Sa (> 1 g) values were obtained in the uncemented units located north of the study area. Kocaeli scenario results showed that the spectral accelerations at the surface in soil groups D and E were higher than the Turkish Building Earthquake Code building requirements. It is necessary to update the earthquake design spectra site-specific. The results clearly showed the effect of ground conditions and strong ground motion selection on earthquake-resistant building design.

Understanding how groundwater level changes affect the permeability of bedrock aquifer‐aquitard systems is important for groundwater management, yet this relationship remains poorly understood. This study focuses on Tangshan in the northeastern North China Plain, utilizing tidal response analysis to investigate the dynamic interplay between groundwater level trends and permeability variations in bedrock aquifer‐aquitard systems. High‐frequency groundwater level data from two monitoring wells were employed to reveal a significant positive correlation: rising groundwater head leads to increased permeability of the bedrock aquifer‐aquitard system, primarily due to adjustments in groundwater head. This research provides direct evidence that both climate variability and human activities can influence bedrock aquifer‐aquitard permeability through changes in the groundwater head. The findings highlight the importance of integrating models of dynamic permeability induced by hydrological processes into groundwater resource management frameworks and hazard assessments, particularly in regions experiencing groundwater level recovery, such as the North China Plain.

This study presents a soil-response analysis of Isparta basin, is situated in the one of most important tectonic areas, using surface wave (ReMi™) and borehole data at 24 points. In the analysis, the nonlinear site response analysis approach was carried out using the DeepSoil software. The study area was characterized by C and D soil class according to NEHRP (National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program) and TBEC-2018 (Turkish Building Earthquake Code-2018) soil classification criteria. For the modelling, the strong ground motion recordings of 6.9 Mw Irpinia and 6.4 Mw Dinar were used and the largest peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) maps of the study area were created. The Bdr-1914 model was made using Irpinia record, PGA values in the study area were determined in the range of 0.28–0.41 g and SA in the range of 0.77–1.82 g. In the Dnr-1995 model, the PGA values in the basin were found to be between 0.05–0.1 g and SA was within the range of 0.21–0.48 g. It was observed that the spectral accelerations on the surface, which significantly increased the effects of strong ground motion, particularly for Mw 6.9, near the city center and the Çünür area where new settlement areas were dense. The results indicate that ground specific design is required for construction in these areas, which are above the risk threshold in acceleration design spectra. At the same time, these results show the site response studies have critical importance and may make a significant contribution to the design of safe structures in the alluvial basins.

Railway embankments in seismically active areas are prone to earthquake-induced damage. In many instances globally, such damage has led to substantial economic losses. Serviceability assessment of these embankments is pivotal in ascertaining better performance during earthquakes. This work presents a physics-based approach to assess the serviceability of railway embankments subjected to strong ground motions. A series of nonlinear dynamic analyses are performed to evaluate the failure mechanism, progression of the failure plane, accumulation of plastic strain, and deformations of a railway embankment using the framework of smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH). The embankment and its underlying foundation are treated as a layered domain, and peak acceleration within each layer is determined through the site-specific nonlinear ground response analysis. The vulnerability assessment of the embankment is carried out considering the vertical displacement of the crest, accumulation of plastic strain, and post-failure scenario under site-specific ground motion characteristics. The vulnerability of the embankment is further quantified through fragility analysis by considering various damage levels. Fragility analysis is carried out using incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) against peak ground acceleration (PGA) of input ground motions as the key hazard indicator. The robustness of the developed vulnerability evaluation framework is also scrutinized through a sequence of stochastic analyses, considering the variability in ground conditions to enhance engineering assessment. The embankment is seen to experience a maximum vertical deformation of 0.05 m at the crest when initial signs of plastic strain development are observed, with deformation increasing to around 0.1 m for moderate damage levels and reaching up to 0.2 m at the point of slope failure. Fragility curves reveal that the right edge of the embankment reaches the first damage level at a PGA of approximately 0.12 g, followed by higher damage levels at PGA’s as high as 0.8 g, for a 100% probability of extensive damage. Stochastic analysis shows that the probability of maximum vertical displacement exceeding deterministic values is about 78.47%, with maximum deviations of 2.599 m. For plastic strain, the probability of exceeding deterministic values is 78.49%, with maximum deviations of 13.08. These findings underscore the importance of considering site-specific conditions and the variability of soil properties in seismic assessments to ensure accurate and reliable serviceability evaluations of railway embankments.

The choice of stiffness profile can be crucial in a site response analysis. This research aims to study site response predictions at the large-scale seismic test site in Lotung, Taiwan, employing three different approaches to choosing the stiffness profile in nonlinear and equivalent linear analyses. These approaches consider point average, layer average, and deposit average stiffness profiles. One strong and one weak earthquake event recorded at the site are simulated with these three stiffness profile approaches. Moreover, the stiffness profiles are tested under sets of seven modified real input motions (selected from the European Strong-Motion Database) at various seismic intensity levels. The results indicate that the different stiffness profiles have a minimal effect on the nonlinear site response predictions, in particular for input motions having a PGA greater than or equal to 0.05 g. The spectral acceleration values and PGA and shear strain profiles from nonlinear site response analyses change negligibly when using different approaches to derive the stiffness profile. In the equivalent linear site response analysis, the spectral acceleration predictions are strongly influenced by the stiffness profile approach, regardless of the PGA level of the input motions. The stiffness profile has a more significant role in equivalent linear site response analysis than in nonlinear site response analysis. Therefore, the point average stiffness profile should be used in equivalent linear site response analysis.

Seismic microzonation is performed to assess the seismic risk in an area. In this paper, seismic microzonation for Lahore, Pakistan has been carried out. Firstly, the Geotechnical and geological properties of soils in the region were classified based on 119 boreholes. Two downhole tests were performed to measure the dynamic in-situ properties of soil. The design spectra for Lahore city from BCP 2007 and 2021 were used as target spectra to develop two synthetic acceleration time histories respectively. Afterward, one-dimensional non-linear site response analysis was performed at 33 sites having depth of 30 m for evaluation of parameters such as peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at the ground surface. Major seismic hazards considered for the seismic risk assessment are (1) peak ground acceleration at the ground surface, (2) surface spectral acceleration and (3) spectral amplification in the top 30 m of soil. All the major hazards estimated above were also used to prepare a seismic risk map of Lahore. Additionally, two site-specific design spectra were proposed in accordance with the soil classes D and E. The results of this study demonstrate the importance of micro-scale seismic studies to quantify the seismic risks associated with earthquakes.