Explore the vast range of titles available.

This volume focuses on Global Catastrophic Biological Risks (GCBRs), a special class of infectious disease outbreaks or pandemics in which the combined capacity of the worlds private and government resources becomes severely strained. These events, of which the 1918 influenza pandemic is emblematic, cause severe disruptions in the normal functioning of the world, exact heavy tolls in terms of morbidity and mortality, and lead to major economic losses. GCBRs can be caused by any type of microorganism, and myriad contextual factors can influence their impact. Additionally, there are cascading questions that arise in connection with GCBR prediction, preparation, and response. This book gathers contributions from thought leaders who discuss the multi-faceted approaches needed in order to address this problem. From understanding the special characteristics of various microbes to financing challenges, the volume provides an essential primer on a neglected but highly relevant topic. Physicians, scientists, policymakers, public health practitioners and anyone with an interest in the field of pandemics, emerging infectious disease, biosecurity, and global health security will find it a valuable and insightful resource.

We aimed to identify a five-fraction schedule of adjuvant radiotherapy (radiation therapy) delivered in 1 week that is non-inferior in terms of local cancer control and is as safe as an international standard 15-fraction regimen after primary surgery for early breast cancer. Here, we present 5-year results of the FAST-Forward trial. FAST-Forward is a multicentre, phase 3, randomised, non-inferiority trial done at 97 hospitals (47 radiotherapy centres and 50 referring hospitals) in the UK. Patients aged at least 18 years with invasive carcinoma of the breast (pT1–3, pN0–1, M0) after breast conservation surgery or mastectomy were eligible. We randomly allocated patients to either 40 Gy in 15 fractions (over 3 weeks), 27 Gy in five fractions (over 1 week), or 26 Gy in five fractions (over 1 week) to the whole breast or chest wall. Allocation was not masked because of the nature of the intervention. The primary endpoint was ipsilateral breast tumour relapse; assuming a 2% 5-year incidence for 40 Gy, non-inferiority was predefined as ≤1·6% excess for five-fraction schedules (critical hazard ratio [HR] of 1·81). Normal tissue effects were assessed by clinicians, patients, and from photographs. This trial is registered at isrctn.com, ISRCTN19906132. Between Nov 24, 2011, and June 19, 2014, we recruited and obtained consent from 4096 patients from 97 UK centres, of whom 1361 were assigned to the 40 Gy schedule, 1367 to the 27 Gy schedule, and 1368 to the 26 Gy schedule. At a median follow-up of 71·5 months (IQR 71·3 to 71·7), the primary endpoint event occurred in 79 patients (31 in the 40 Gy group, 27 in the 27 Gy group, and 21 in the 26 Gy group); HRs versus 40 Gy in 15 fractions were 0·86 (95% CI 0·51 to 1·44) for 27 Gy in five fractions and 0·67 (0·38 to 1·16) for 26 Gy in five fractions. 5-year incidence of ipsilateral breast tumour relapse after 40 Gy was 2·1% (1·4 to 3·1); estimated absolute differences versus 40 Gy in 15 fractions were −0·3% (−1·0 to 0·9) for 27 Gy in five fractions (probability of incorrectly accepting an inferior five-fraction schedule: p=0·0022 vs 40 Gy in 15 fractions) and −0·7% (−1·3 to 0·3) for 26 Gy in five fractions (p=0·00019 vs 40 Gy in 15 fractions). At 5 years, any moderate or marked clinician-assessed normal tissue effects in the breast or chest wall was reported for 98 of 986 (9·9%) 40 Gy patients, 155 (15·4%) of 1005 27 Gy patients, and 121 of 1020 (11·9%) 26 Gy patients. Across all clinician assessments from 1–5 years, odds ratios versus 40 Gy in 15 fractions were 1·55 (95% CI 1·32 to 1·83, p<0·0001) for 27 Gy in five fractions and 1·12 (0·94 to 1·34, p=0·20) for 26 Gy in five fractions. Patient and photographic assessments showed higher normal tissue effect risk for 27 Gy versus 40 Gy but not for 26 Gy versus 40 Gy. 26 Gy in five fractions over 1 week is non-inferior to the standard of 40 Gy in 15 fractions over 3 weeks for local tumour control, and is as safe in terms of normal tissue effects up to 5 years for patients prescribed adjuvant local radiotherapy after primary surgery for early-stage breast cancer. National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

\"In spite of improved access to psychosocial interventions, many people with psychosis continue to experience persistent problems which act as significant barriers to their recovery. This book investigates risk and problem behaviours in psychosis including staff and service factors that can impede the delivery of effective care. Working with Problematic Behaviour in Psychosis provides a new approach for assessment formulation and intervention with such problem behaviours in a team context. Of particular interest will be: an outline of the SAFE (Shared Assessment, Formulation and Education) approach an integrative model for understanding risk and problematic behaviour shared risk assessment and management processes the use of CBT in day-to-day interactions with clients a set of formulation driven strategies for managing problematic behaviours case studies and vignettes providing guidance and highlighting the benefits of the approach. This book will have particular appeal to professionals working in residential care for those with complex mental health problems as well as those working in intensive community based services. It is also an excellent resource for those training in psychological therapies for complex mental health problems, risk assessment and management\"--Provided by publisher.

The relevance of blood lipid concentrations to long-term incidence of cardiovascular disease and the relevance of lipid-lowering therapy for cardiovascular disease outcomes is unclear. We investigated the cardiovascular disease risk associated with the full spectrum of bloodstream non-HDL cholesterol concentrations. We also created an easy-to-use tool to estimate the long-term probabilities for a cardiovascular disease event associated with non-HDL cholesterol and modelled its risk reduction by lipid-lowering treatment. In this risk-evaluation and risk-modelling study, we used Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium data from 19 countries across Europe, Australia, and North America. Individuals without prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline and with robust available data on cardiovascular disease outcomes were included. The primary composite endpoint of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was defined as the occurrence of the coronary heart disease event or ischaemic stroke. Sex-specific multivariable analyses were computed using non-HDL cholesterol categories according to the European guideline thresholds, adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and classical modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. In a derivation and validation design, we created a tool to estimate the probabilities of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, dependent on age, sex, and risk factors, and the associated modelled risk reduction, assuming a 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol. Of the 524 444 individuals in the 44 cohorts in the Consortium database, we identified 398 846 individuals belonging to 38 cohorts (184 055 [48·7%] women; median age 51·0 years [IQR 40·7–59·7]). 199 415 individuals were included in the derivation cohort (91 786 [48·4%] women) and 199 431 (92 269 [49·1%] women) in the validation cohort. During a maximum follow-up of 43·6 years (median 13·5 years, IQR 7·0–20·1), 54 542 cardiovascular endpoints occurred. Incidence curve analyses showed progressively higher 30-year cardiovascular disease event-rates for increasing non-HDL cholesterol categories (from 7·7% for non-HDL cholesterol <2·6 mmol/L to 33·7% for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 12·8% to 43·6% in men; p<0·0001). Multivariable adjusted Cox models with non-HDL cholesterol lower than 2·6 mmol/L as reference showed an increase in the association between non-HDL cholesterol concentration and cardiovascular disease for both sexes (from hazard ratio 1·1, 95% CI 1·0–1·3 for non-HDL cholesterol 2·6 to <3·7 mmol/L to 1·9, 1·6–2·2 for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 1·1, 1·0–1·3 to 2·3, 2·0–2·5 in men). The derived tool allowed the estimation of cardiovascular disease event probabilities specific for non-HDL cholesterol with high comparability between the derivation and validation cohorts as reflected by smooth calibration curves analyses and a root mean square error lower than 1% for the estimated probabilities of cardiovascular disease. A 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol concentrations was associated with reduced risk of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, and this risk reduction was greater the earlier cholesterol concentrations were reduced. Non-HDL cholesterol concentrations in blood are strongly associated with long-term risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We provide a simple tool for individual long-term risk assessment and the potential benefit of early lipid-lowering intervention. These data could be useful for physician–patient communication about primary prevention strategies. EU Framework Programme, UK Medical Research Council, and German Centre for Cardiovascular Research.

Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease often fails because of poor adherence among practitioners and individuals to prevention guidelines. We aimed to investigate whether ultrasound-based pictorial information about subclinical carotid atherosclerosis, targeting both primary care physicians and individuals, improves prevention. Visualization of asymptomatic atherosclerotic disease for optimum cardiovascular prevention (VIPVIZA) is a pragmatic, open-label, randomised controlled trial that was integrated within the Västerbotten Intervention Programme, an ongoing population-based cardiovascular disease prevention programme in northern Sweden. Individuals aged 40, 50, or 60 years with one or more conventional risk factors were eligible to participate. Participants underwent clinical examination, blood sampling, and ultrasound assessment of carotid intima media wall thickness and plaque formation. Participants were randomly assigned 1:1 with a computer-generated randomisation list to an intervention group (pictorial representation of carotid ultrasound plus a nurse phone call to confirm understanding) or a control group (not informed). The primary outcomes, Framingham risk score (FRS) and European systematic coronary risk evaluation (SCORE), were assessed after 1 year among participants who were followed up. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01849575. 3532 individuals were enrolled between April 29, 2013, and June 7, 2016, of which 1783 were randomly assigned to the control group and 1749 were assigned to the intervention group. 3175 participants completed the 1-year follow-up. At the 1-year follow-up, FRS and SCORE differed significantly between groups (FRS 1·07 [95% CI 0·11 to 2·03, p=0·0017] and SCORE 0·16 [0·02 to 0·30, p=0·0010]). FRS decreased from baseline to the 1-year follow-up in the intervention group and increased in the control group (−0·58 [95% CI −0·86 to −0·30] vs 0·35 [0·08 to 0·63]). SCORE increased in both groups (0·13 [95% CI 0·09 to 0·18] vs 0·27 [0·23 to 0·30]). This study provides evidence of the contributory role of pictorial presentation of silent atherosclerosis for prevention of cardiovascular disease. It supports further development of methods to reduce the major problem of low adherence to medication and lifestyle modification. Västerbotten County Council, the Swedish Research Council, the Heart and Lung Foundation, the Swedish Society of Medicine, and Carl Bennet Ltd, Sweden.

The revised 2017 European LeukemiaNet (ELN) recommendations for genetic risk stratification of acute myeloid leukemia have been widely adopted, but have not yet been validated in large cohorts of AML patients. We studied 1116 newly diagnosed AML patients (age range, 18–86 years) who had received induction chemotherapy. Among 771 patients not selected by genetics, the ELN-2017 classification re-assigned 26.5% of patients into a more favorable or, more commonly, a more adverse-risk group compared with the ELN-2010 recommendations. Forty percent of the cohort, and 51% of patients ≥60 years, were classified as adverse-risk by ELN-2017. In 599 patients <60 years, estimated 5-year overall survival (OS) was 64% for ELN-2017 favorable, 42% for intermediate-risk and 20% for adverse-risk patients. Among 517 patients aged ≥60 years, corresponding 5-year OS rates were 37, 16, and 6%. Patients with biallelic CEBPA mutations or inv(16) had particularly favorable outcomes, while patients with mutated TP53 and a complex karyotype had especially poor prognosis. DNMT3A mutations associated with inferior OS within each ELN-2017 risk group. Our results validate the prognostic significance of the revised ELN-2017 risk classification in AML patients receiving induction chemotherapy across a broad age range. Further refinement of the ELN-2017 risk classification is possible.

\"This collection covers the essential concepts in the management of coastal disasters, outlining several field surveys of coastal disasters in the 21st century, including the Indian Ocean and Tohoku Tsunamis, and the storm surges of Hurricane Katrina, Cyclone Nargis, and Typhoon Haiyan. Measurements of flood heights, distributions of structural destruction, and residents' testimonies are reported, and the results are analysed and compared with past events and numerical simulations, with the reality of these disasters reconstructed. The book then covers the current understanding of disaster mechanisms and the most advanced tools for future simulation. Uniquely explains how to use disaster surveys along with simulations to mitigate risk. Combines pure scientific studies with practical trials and proposes future procedures for effective coastal disaster mitigation. Coastal Disaster Surveys and Assessment for Risk Mitigation is ideal for students in the disaster field as well as engineers who manage tsunamis, storm surges, high wave attacks and coastal erosion\"-- Provided by publisher.

Objective To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.Design International multicentre prospective study.Setting Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania.Participants 3012 consecutive patients presenting over 12 months with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.Main outcome measures Comparison of pre-endoscopy scores (admission Rockall, AIMS65, and Glasgow Blatchford) and post-endoscopy scores (full Rockall and PNED) for their ability to predict predefined clinical endpoints: a composite endpoint (transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or 30 day mortality), endoscopic treatment, 30 day mortality, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay. Optimum score thresholds to identify low risk and high risk patients were determined.Results The Glasgow Blatchford score was best (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.86) at predicting intervention or death compared with the full Rockall score (0.70), PNED score (0.69), admission Rockall score (0.66, and AIMS65 score (0.68) (all P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≤1 was the optimum threshold to predict survival without intervention (sensitivity 98.6%, specificity 34.6%). The Glasgow Blatchford score was better at predicting endoscopic treatment (AUROC 0.75) than the AIMS65 (0.62) and admission Rockall scores (0.61) (both P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≥7 was the optimum threshold to predict endoscopic treatment (sensitivity 80%, specificity 57%). The PNED (AUROC 0.77) and AIMS65 scores (0.77) were best at predicting mortality, with both superior to admission Rockall score (0.72) and Glasgow Blatchford score (0.64; P<0.001). Score thresholds of ≥4 for PNED, ≥2 for AIMS65, ≥4 for admission Rockall, and ≥5 for full Rockall were optimal at predicting death, with sensitivities of 65.8-78.6% and specificities of 65.0-65.3%. No score was helpful at predicting rebleeding or length of stay.Conclusions The Glasgow Blatchford score has high accuracy at predicting need for hospital based intervention or death. Scores of ≤1 appear the optimum threshold for directing patients to outpatient management. AUROCs of scores for the other endpoints are less than 0.80, therefore their clinical utility for these outcomes seems to be limited.Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16235737.