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This volume focuses on Global Catastrophic Biological Risks (GCBRs), a special class of infectious disease outbreaks or pandemics in which the combined capacity of the worlds private and government resources becomes severely strained. These events, of which the 1918 influenza pandemic is emblematic, cause severe disruptions in the normal functioning of the world, exact heavy tolls in terms of morbidity and mortality, and lead to major economic losses. GCBRs can be caused by any type of microorganism, and myriad contextual factors can influence their impact. Additionally, there are cascading questions that arise in connection with GCBR prediction, preparation, and response. This book gathers contributions from thought leaders who discuss the multi-faceted approaches needed in order to address this problem. From understanding the special characteristics of various microbes to financing challenges, the volume provides an essential primer on a neglected but highly relevant topic. Physicians, scientists, policymakers, public health practitioners and anyone with an interest in the field of pandemics, emerging infectious disease, biosecurity, and global health security will find it a valuable and insightful resource.

We aimed to identify a five-fraction schedule of adjuvant radiotherapy (radiation therapy) delivered in 1 week that is non-inferior in terms of local cancer control and is as safe as an international standard 15-fraction regimen after primary surgery for early breast cancer. Here, we present 5-year results of the FAST-Forward trial. FAST-Forward is a multicentre, phase 3, randomised, non-inferiority trial done at 97 hospitals (47 radiotherapy centres and 50 referring hospitals) in the UK. Patients aged at least 18 years with invasive carcinoma of the breast (pT1–3, pN0–1, M0) after breast conservation surgery or mastectomy were eligible. We randomly allocated patients to either 40 Gy in 15 fractions (over 3 weeks), 27 Gy in five fractions (over 1 week), or 26 Gy in five fractions (over 1 week) to the whole breast or chest wall. Allocation was not masked because of the nature of the intervention. The primary endpoint was ipsilateral breast tumour relapse; assuming a 2% 5-year incidence for 40 Gy, non-inferiority was predefined as ≤1·6% excess for five-fraction schedules (critical hazard ratio [HR] of 1·81). Normal tissue effects were assessed by clinicians, patients, and from photographs. This trial is registered at isrctn.com, ISRCTN19906132. Between Nov 24, 2011, and June 19, 2014, we recruited and obtained consent from 4096 patients from 97 UK centres, of whom 1361 were assigned to the 40 Gy schedule, 1367 to the 27 Gy schedule, and 1368 to the 26 Gy schedule. At a median follow-up of 71·5 months (IQR 71·3 to 71·7), the primary endpoint event occurred in 79 patients (31 in the 40 Gy group, 27 in the 27 Gy group, and 21 in the 26 Gy group); HRs versus 40 Gy in 15 fractions were 0·86 (95% CI 0·51 to 1·44) for 27 Gy in five fractions and 0·67 (0·38 to 1·16) for 26 Gy in five fractions. 5-year incidence of ipsilateral breast tumour relapse after 40 Gy was 2·1% (1·4 to 3·1); estimated absolute differences versus 40 Gy in 15 fractions were −0·3% (−1·0 to 0·9) for 27 Gy in five fractions (probability of incorrectly accepting an inferior five-fraction schedule: p=0·0022 vs 40 Gy in 15 fractions) and −0·7% (−1·3 to 0·3) for 26 Gy in five fractions (p=0·00019 vs 40 Gy in 15 fractions). At 5 years, any moderate or marked clinician-assessed normal tissue effects in the breast or chest wall was reported for 98 of 986 (9·9%) 40 Gy patients, 155 (15·4%) of 1005 27 Gy patients, and 121 of 1020 (11·9%) 26 Gy patients. Across all clinician assessments from 1–5 years, odds ratios versus 40 Gy in 15 fractions were 1·55 (95% CI 1·32 to 1·83, p<0·0001) for 27 Gy in five fractions and 1·12 (0·94 to 1·34, p=0·20) for 26 Gy in five fractions. Patient and photographic assessments showed higher normal tissue effect risk for 27 Gy versus 40 Gy but not for 26 Gy versus 40 Gy. 26 Gy in five fractions over 1 week is non-inferior to the standard of 40 Gy in 15 fractions over 3 weeks for local tumour control, and is as safe in terms of normal tissue effects up to 5 years for patients prescribed adjuvant local radiotherapy after primary surgery for early-stage breast cancer. National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

\"In spite of improved access to psychosocial interventions, many people with psychosis continue to experience persistent problems which act as significant barriers to their recovery. This book investigates risk and problem behaviours in psychosis including staff and service factors that can impede the delivery of effective care. Working with Problematic Behaviour in Psychosis provides a new approach for assessment formulation and intervention with such problem behaviours in a team context. Of particular interest will be: an outline of the SAFE (Shared Assessment, Formulation and Education) approach an integrative model for understanding risk and problematic behaviour shared risk assessment and management processes the use of CBT in day-to-day interactions with clients a set of formulation driven strategies for managing problematic behaviours case studies and vignettes providing guidance and highlighting the benefits of the approach. This book will have particular appeal to professionals working in residential care for those with complex mental health problems as well as those working in intensive community based services. It is also an excellent resource for those training in psychological therapies for complex mental health problems, risk assessment and management\"--Provided by publisher.

Since the first edition of the book was published there have been several changes in the types of risk individuals, businesses, and governments are being exposed to. Cyber-attacks are more frequent and costly and lone-wolf style terrorist attacks are more common; events not addressed in the first edition. The book continues to provide a resource that leads the reader through a risk assessment and shows them the proper tools to be used at the various steps in the process. This book also provides students studying safety and risk assessment a resource that assists them in understanding the various risk assessment tools and presents readers with a toolbox of techniques that can be used to aid them in analyzing conceptual designs, completed designs, procedures and operational risk. On top of the ten new chapters the new edition also includes expanded case studies and real-life examples; coverage on risk assessment software like SAPPHIRE and RAVEN; and end-of-chapter questions for students with a solutions manual for academic adopters.

The relevance of blood lipid concentrations to long-term incidence of cardiovascular disease and the relevance of lipid-lowering therapy for cardiovascular disease outcomes is unclear. We investigated the cardiovascular disease risk associated with the full spectrum of bloodstream non-HDL cholesterol concentrations. We also created an easy-to-use tool to estimate the long-term probabilities for a cardiovascular disease event associated with non-HDL cholesterol and modelled its risk reduction by lipid-lowering treatment. In this risk-evaluation and risk-modelling study, we used Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium data from 19 countries across Europe, Australia, and North America. Individuals without prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline and with robust available data on cardiovascular disease outcomes were included. The primary composite endpoint of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was defined as the occurrence of the coronary heart disease event or ischaemic stroke. Sex-specific multivariable analyses were computed using non-HDL cholesterol categories according to the European guideline thresholds, adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and classical modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. In a derivation and validation design, we created a tool to estimate the probabilities of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, dependent on age, sex, and risk factors, and the associated modelled risk reduction, assuming a 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol. Of the 524 444 individuals in the 44 cohorts in the Consortium database, we identified 398 846 individuals belonging to 38 cohorts (184 055 [48·7%] women; median age 51·0 years [IQR 40·7–59·7]). 199 415 individuals were included in the derivation cohort (91 786 [48·4%] women) and 199 431 (92 269 [49·1%] women) in the validation cohort. During a maximum follow-up of 43·6 years (median 13·5 years, IQR 7·0–20·1), 54 542 cardiovascular endpoints occurred. Incidence curve analyses showed progressively higher 30-year cardiovascular disease event-rates for increasing non-HDL cholesterol categories (from 7·7% for non-HDL cholesterol <2·6 mmol/L to 33·7% for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 12·8% to 43·6% in men; p<0·0001). Multivariable adjusted Cox models with non-HDL cholesterol lower than 2·6 mmol/L as reference showed an increase in the association between non-HDL cholesterol concentration and cardiovascular disease for both sexes (from hazard ratio 1·1, 95% CI 1·0–1·3 for non-HDL cholesterol 2·6 to <3·7 mmol/L to 1·9, 1·6–2·2 for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 1·1, 1·0–1·3 to 2·3, 2·0–2·5 in men). The derived tool allowed the estimation of cardiovascular disease event probabilities specific for non-HDL cholesterol with high comparability between the derivation and validation cohorts as reflected by smooth calibration curves analyses and a root mean square error lower than 1% for the estimated probabilities of cardiovascular disease. A 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol concentrations was associated with reduced risk of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, and this risk reduction was greater the earlier cholesterol concentrations were reduced. Non-HDL cholesterol concentrations in blood are strongly associated with long-term risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We provide a simple tool for individual long-term risk assessment and the potential benefit of early lipid-lowering intervention. These data could be useful for physician–patient communication about primary prevention strategies. EU Framework Programme, UK Medical Research Council, and German Centre for Cardiovascular Research.

Purpose Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a grey-level textural measurement acquired from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry lumbar spine images and is a validated index of bone microarchitecture. In 2015, a Working Group of the European Society on Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal Diseases (ESCEO) published a review of the TBS literature, concluding that TBS predicts hip and major osteoporotic fracture, at least partly independent of bone mineral density (BMD) and clinical risk factors. It was also concluded that TBS is potentially amenable to change as a result of pharmacological therapy. Further evidence on the utility of TBS has since accumulated in both primary and secondary osteoporosis, and the introduction of FRAX and BMD T-score adjustment for TBS has accelerated adoption. This position paper therefore presents a review of the updated scientific literature and provides expert consensus statements and corresponding operational guidelines for the use of TBS. Methods An Expert Working Group was convened by the ESCEO and a systematic review of the evidence undertaken, with defined search strategies for four key topics with respect to the potential use of TBS: (1) fracture prediction in men and women; (2) initiating and monitoring treatment in postmenopausal osteoporosis; (3) fracture prediction in secondary osteoporosis; and (4) treatment monitoring in secondary osteoporosis. Statements to guide the clinical use of TBS were derived from the review and graded by consensus using the Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. Results A total of 96 articles were reviewed and included data on the use of TBS for fracture prediction in men and women, from over 20 countries. The updated evidence shows that TBS enhances fracture risk prediction in both primary and secondary osteoporosis, and can, when taken with BMD and clinical risk factors, inform treatment initiation and the choice of antiosteoporosis treatment. Evidence also indicates that TBS provides useful adjunctive information in monitoring treatment with long-term denosumab and anabolic agents. All expert consensus statements were voted as strongly recommended. Conclusion The addition of TBS assessment to FRAX and/or BMD enhances fracture risk prediction in primary and secondary osteoporosis, adding useful information for treatment decision-making and monitoring. The expert consensus statements provided in this paper can be used to guide the integration of TBS in clinical practice for the assessment and management of osteoporosis. An example of an operational approach is provided in the appendix. Summary This position paper presents an up-to-date review of the evidence base, synthesised through expert consensus statements, which informs the implementation of Trabecular Bone Score in clinical practice.

\"This collection covers the essential concepts in the management of coastal disasters, outlining several field surveys of coastal disasters in the 21st century, including the Indian Ocean and Tohoku Tsunamis, and the storm surges of Hurricane Katrina, Cyclone Nargis, and Typhoon Haiyan. Measurements of flood heights, distributions of structural destruction, and residents' testimonies are reported, and the results are analysed and compared with past events and numerical simulations, with the reality of these disasters reconstructed. The book then covers the current understanding of disaster mechanisms and the most advanced tools for future simulation. Uniquely explains how to use disaster surveys along with simulations to mitigate risk. Combines pure scientific studies with practical trials and proposes future procedures for effective coastal disaster mitigation. Coastal Disaster Surveys and Assessment for Risk Mitigation is ideal for students in the disaster field as well as engineers who manage tsunamis, storm surges, high wave attacks and coastal erosion\"-- Provided by publisher.

Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease often fails because of poor adherence among practitioners and individuals to prevention guidelines. We aimed to investigate whether ultrasound-based pictorial information about subclinical carotid atherosclerosis, targeting both primary care physicians and individuals, improves prevention. Visualization of asymptomatic atherosclerotic disease for optimum cardiovascular prevention (VIPVIZA) is a pragmatic, open-label, randomised controlled trial that was integrated within the Västerbotten Intervention Programme, an ongoing population-based cardiovascular disease prevention programme in northern Sweden. Individuals aged 40, 50, or 60 years with one or more conventional risk factors were eligible to participate. Participants underwent clinical examination, blood sampling, and ultrasound assessment of carotid intima media wall thickness and plaque formation. Participants were randomly assigned 1:1 with a computer-generated randomisation list to an intervention group (pictorial representation of carotid ultrasound plus a nurse phone call to confirm understanding) or a control group (not informed). The primary outcomes, Framingham risk score (FRS) and European systematic coronary risk evaluation (SCORE), were assessed after 1 year among participants who were followed up. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01849575. 3532 individuals were enrolled between April 29, 2013, and June 7, 2016, of which 1783 were randomly assigned to the control group and 1749 were assigned to the intervention group. 3175 participants completed the 1-year follow-up. At the 1-year follow-up, FRS and SCORE differed significantly between groups (FRS 1·07 [95% CI 0·11 to 2·03, p=0·0017] and SCORE 0·16 [0·02 to 0·30, p=0·0010]). FRS decreased from baseline to the 1-year follow-up in the intervention group and increased in the control group (−0·58 [95% CI −0·86 to −0·30] vs 0·35 [0·08 to 0·63]). SCORE increased in both groups (0·13 [95% CI 0·09 to 0·18] vs 0·27 [0·23 to 0·30]). This study provides evidence of the contributory role of pictorial presentation of silent atherosclerosis for prevention of cardiovascular disease. It supports further development of methods to reduce the major problem of low adherence to medication and lifestyle modification. Västerbotten County Council, the Swedish Research Council, the Heart and Lung Foundation, the Swedish Society of Medicine, and Carl Bennet Ltd, Sweden.