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Risk analysis : assessing uncertainties beyond expected values and probabilities
Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyze, predict, and prepare for the level of risk entailed by these decisions is, therefore, one of the most constant and vital skills needed for analysts, scientists and managers. Risk analysis can be defined as a systematic use of information to identify hazards, threats and opportunities, as well as their causes and consequences, and then express risk. In order to successfully develop such a systematic use of information, those analyzing the risk need to understand the fundamental concepts of risk analysis and be proficient in a variety of methods and techniques. Risk Analysis adopts a practical, predictive approach and guides the reader through a number of applications. Risk Analysis: Provides an accessible and concise guide to performing risk analysis in a wide variety of fields, with minimal prior knowledge required. Adopts a broad perspective on risk, with focus on predictions and highlighting uncertainties beyond expected values and probabilities, allowing a more flexible approach than traditional statistical analysis. Acknowledges that expected values and probabilities could produce poor predictions - surprises may occur. Emphasizes the planning and use of risk analyses, rather than just the risk analysis methods and techniques, including the statistical analysis tools. Features many real-life case studies from a variety of applications and practical industry problems, including areas such as security, business and economy, transport, oil & gas and ICT (Information and Communication Technology). Forms an ideal companion volume to Aven's previous Wiley text Foundations of Risk Analysis. Professor Aven's previous book Foundations of Risk Analysis presented and discussed several risk analysis approaches and recommended a predictive approach. This new
text expands upon this predictive approach, exploring further the risk analysis principles, concepts, methods and models in an applied format. This book provides a useful and practical guide to decision-making, aimed at professionals within the risk analysis and risk management field.
eBook
Counterparty credit risk, collateral and funding
\"The book's content is focused on rigorous and advanced quantitative methods for the pricing and hedging of counterparty credit and funding risk. The new general theory that is required for this methodology is developed from scratch, leading to a consistent and comprehensive framework for counterparty credit and funding risk, inclusive of collateral, netting rules, possible debit valuation adjustments, re-hypothecation and closeout rules. The book however also looks at quite practical problems, linking particular models to particular 'concrete' financial situations across asset classes, including interest rates, FX, commodities, equity, credit itself, and the emerging asset class of longevity. The authors also aim to help quantitative analysts, traders, and anyone else needing to frame and price counterparty credit and funding risk, to develop a 'feel' for applying sophisticated mathematics and stochastic calculus to solve practical problems. The main models are illustrated from theoretical formulation to final implementation with calibration to market data, always keeping in mind the concrete questions being dealt with. The authors stress that each model is suited to different situations and products, pointing out that there does not exist a single model which is uniformly better than all the others, although the problems originated by counterparty credit and funding risk point in the direction of global valuation. Finally, proposals for restructuring counterparty credit risk, ranging from contingent credit default swaps to margin lending, are considered\"--provided by publisher.
eBook
Extreme Value Methods with Applications to Finance
Extreme value theory (EVT) provides tools for assessing risk of highly unusual developments, such as financial market crashes. This book presents a synthesis of recent research, with emphasis on dependent observations. It concentrates on modern topics, such as compound Poisson approximation, processes of exceedances, and nonparametric estimation methods, which have not been focused on in other books on extremes. Along with examples from finance and insurance that illustrate the methods, the book includes over 200 exercises, making it useful as a reference book, self-study tool, or comprehensive course text.
eBook
Assessing risk assessment : towards alternative risk measures for complex financial systems
\"Christian Hugo Hoffmann undermines the citadel of risk assessment and management, arguing that classical probability theory is not an adequate foundation for modeling systemic and extreme risk in complex financial systems. He proposes a new class of models which focus on the knowledge dimension by precisely describing market participants own positions and their propensity to react to outside changes. The author closes his thesis by a synthetical reflection on methods and elaborates on the meaning of decision-making competency in a risk management context in banking. By choosing this poly-dimensional approach, the purpose of his work is to explore shortcomings of risk management approaches of financial institutions and to point out how they might be overcome.\" Back cover.
Book
Anticipating correlations
Financial markets respond to information virtually instantaneously. Each new piece of information influences the prices of assets and their correlations with each other, and as the system rapidly changes, so too do correlation forecasts. This fast-evolving environment presents econometricians with the challenge of forecasting dynamic correlations, which are essential inputs to risk measurement, portfolio allocation, derivative pricing, and many other critical financial activities. In Anticipating Correlations, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Engle introduces an important new method for estimating correlations for large systems of assets: Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC). Engle demonstrates the role of correlations in financial decision making, and addresses the economic underpinnings and theoretical properties of correlations and their relation to other measures of dependence. He compares DCC with other correlation estimators such as historical correlation, exponential smoothing, and multivariate GARCH, and he presents a range of important applications of DCC. Engle presents the asymmetric model and illustrates it using a multicountry equity and bond return model. He introduces the new FACTOR DCC model that blends factor models with the DCC to produce a model with the best features of both, and illustrates it using an array of U.S. large-cap equities. Engle shows how overinvestment in collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, lies at the heart of the subprime mortgage crisis--and how the correlation models in this book could have foreseen the risks. A technical chapter of econometric results also is included.
eBook
Modelling under risk and uncertainty : an introduction to statistical, phenomenological and computational methods
Modelling has permeated virtually all areas of industrial, environmental, economic, bio-medical or civil engineering: yet the use of models for decision-making raises a number of issues to which this book is dedicated: How uncertain is my model?Is it truly valuable to support decision-making?.
eBook