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The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Research Summary We draw upon applied psychology literature to explore interagent differences in perceived risk to their equity when making strategic risk decisions. Our theory suggests behavioral agency's predicted negative relationship between equity risk bearing and strategic risk taking is contingent upon four personality traits. Our empirical analyses, based on personality profiles of 158 Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) of S&P 1,500 firms in manufacturing industries, indicate the relationship between executive risk bearing and strategic risk taking crosses from negative to positive for high extraversion, greater openness, and low conscientiousness. These findings demonstrate that agency based predictions of CEO risk taking in response to compensation—and board attempts at creating incentive alignment using compensation—are enhanced by integrating insights from personality trait literature. Managerial Summary We study the effect of CEO personality on their behavioral responses to stock option pay. Our findings reveal that CEOs that score high on extraversion or openness and low on conscientiousness are less likely to decrease their firm's strategic risk taking as the value of their stock options increases. That is, the tendency of CEOs to become more risk averse in their strategic choices as their option wealth increases (due to loss aversion) is weaker for highly extraverted and more open CEOs, but stronger for more conscientiousness CEOs. Overall, our findings suggest that board of directors need to consider personality traits of their CEOs when designing compensation packages with the intention to align incentives of CEOs with shareholder risk preferences.

Selection is likely to shape behavior by acting on behavioral differences between individuals. Testing this idea has been challenging. Lapiedra et al. took advantage of a chain of small islands in the Caribbean colonized by anole lizards. A series of repeated behavioral selection experiments were set up in which brown anole populations were established with and without predators. On predator-free islands, animals that were more exploratory were favored, whereas when predators were present, less adventurous animals survived better. Selection for behavior occurred simultaneously with morphological selection but was predominant when predators were present. Science , this issue p. 1017 The presence or absence of a large lizard predator shapes how experimental populations of brown anoles behave with respect to risk. Biologists have long debated the role of behavior in evolution, yet understanding of its role as a driver of adaptation is hampered by the scarcity of experimental studies of natural selection on behavior in nature. After showing that individual Anolis sagrei lizards vary consistently in risk-taking behaviors, we experimentally established populations on eight small islands either with or without Leiocephalus carinatus , a major ground predator. We found that selection predictably favors different risk-taking behaviors under different treatments: Exploratory behavior is favored in the absence of predators, whereas avoidance of the ground is favored in their presence. On predator islands, selection on behavior is stronger than selection on morphology, whereas the opposite holds on islands without predators. Our field experiment demonstrates that selection can shape behavioral traits, paving the way toward adaptation to varying environmental contexts.

Positive risks benefit adolescent development without posing the same public safety concerns as negative risks, but little is understood about the psychological characteristics of positive risk taking. This study explored the shared and unique correlates of positive and negative risk taking in 223 adolescents (48% female) ages 16–20 years (M = 18.1; SD = 0.81). Positive and negative risk taking were both associated with higher sensation seeking. Unlike negative risk taking, positive risk taking was not associated with impulsivity or risk taking on experimental tasks. Further, positive risk taking was associated with lower reward sensitivity, higher punishment sensitivity, and greater school engagement than negative risk taking. The findings offer new insights for prevailing models of adolescent risk behavior and suggest positive risk taking may be particularly beneficial in the school context.

In the bestselling 'The Signal and the Noise', Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely book, Silver investigates 'The River,' or those whose mastery of risk allows them to shape - and dominate - so much of modern life. These professional risk takers - poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and blue-chip art collectors - can teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the 21st century. By embedding within these worlds, Silver offers insight into a range of issues that affect us all, from the frontiers of finance to the future of AI. The River has increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society, and understanding their mindset - including the flaws in their thinking - is key to understanding what drives technology and the global economy today.

This research examines the impact of the internal allocation of decision-making authority on the risk-taking behavior of enterprise groups, based on a sample of A-share listed parent-subsidiary companies from 2010 to 2022. The study finds that a centralized decision-making structure is associated with reduction in the overall risk profile of enterprise groups. This paper further employs a mechanism analysis through the establishment of a moderated mediation model with an associated network, which reveals that the centralization of internal decision-making authority achieves a reduction in the level of risk-taking through the operation of the internal capital market through two distinct mechanisms. Firstly, it operates the internal capital market, which suppresses diversified investments. Secondly, it improves the efficiency of internal capital allocation. Furthermore, when the associated network is embedded in the internal capital market model, the moderating effect demonstrates that the internal interlocking director network does not suppress diversified investments, but significantly enhances the efficiency of the internal capital market. The associated network of institutional investors serves to reinforce the risk-reducing effect of the internal capital market on risk by reducing noise trading and signal transmission through the diversification and efficiency enhancement of the internal capital market. This paper illuminates the characteristics of network relationships within the internal capital market and the impact of decision-making authority allocation on enterprise risk, and provides strategies to prevent and mitigate significant economic and financial risk.