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Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities 1 , 2 . This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity 3 – 6 . Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017—and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions—was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing—and in some countries reversal—of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories. Contrary to the view that urbanization is a major driver of the global rise in obesity, the global increase in body-mass index is shown to be mostly due to increases in the body-mass indexes of rural populations.

Objectives. To examine 47 years of US urban and rural mortality trends at the county level, controlling for effects of education, income, poverty, and race. Methods. We obtained (1) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER (Wide-ranging ONline Data for Epidemiologic Research) data (1970–2016) on 104 million deaths; (2) US Census data on education, poverty, and race; and (3) Bureau of Economic Analysis data on income. We calculated ordinary least square regression models, including interaction models, for each year. We graphed standardized parameter estimates for 47 years. Results. Rural–urban mortality disparities increased from the mid-1980s through 2016. We found education, race, and rurality to be strong predictors; we found strong interactions between percentage poverty and percentage rural, indicating that the largest penalty was in high-poverty, rural counties. Conclusions. The rural–urban mortality disparity was persistent, growing, and large when compared to other place-based disparities. The penalty had evolved into a high-poverty, rural penalty that rivaled the effects of education and exceeded the effects of race by 2016. Public Health Implications. Targeting public health programs that focus on high-poverty, rural locales is a promising strategy for addressing disparities in mortality.

Rapid demographic ageing substantially affects socioeconomic development 1 – 4 and presents considerable challenges for food security and agricultural sustainability 5 – 8 , which have so far not been well understood. Here, by using data from more than 15,000 rural households with crops but no livestock across China, we show that rural population ageing reduced farm size by 4% through transferring cropland ownership and land abandonment (approximately 4 million hectares) in 2019, taking the population age structure in 1990 as a benchmark. These changes led to a reduction of agricultural inputs, including chemical fertilizers, manure and machinery, which decreased agricultural output and labour productivity by 5% and 4%, respectively, further lowering farmers’ income by 15%. Meanwhile, fertilizer loss increased by 3%, resulting in higher pollutant emissions to the environment. In new farming models, such as cooperative farming, farms tend to be larger and operated by younger farmers, who have a higher average education level, hence improving agricultural management. By encouraging the transition to new farming models, the negative consequences of ageing can be reversed. Agricultural input, farm size and farmer’s income would grow by approximately 14%, 20% and 26%, respectively, and fertilizer loss would reduce by 4% in 2100 compared with that in 2020. This suggests that management of rural ageing will contribute to a comprehensive transformation of smallholder farming to sustainable agriculture in China. Rural population ageing reduces the sustainability of smallholder farming in China, but the transition to a new farming model could reverse the negative effects of rural population ageing.

Objectives. To examine whether living in a rural versus urban area differentially exposes populations to social conditions associated with disparities in access to health care. Methods. We linked Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (2005–2010) data to geographic data from the American Community Survey (2005–2009) and Area Health Resource File (2010). We categorized census tracts as rural and urban by using the Rural–Urban Commuting Area Codes. Respondent sample sizes ranged from 49 839 to 105 306. Outcomes were access to a usual source of health care, cholesterol screening, cervical screening, dental visit within recommended intervals, and health care needs met. Results. African Americans in rural areas had lower odds of cholesterol screening (odds ratio[OR] = 0.37; 95% confidence interval[CI] = 0.25, 0.57) and cervical screening (OR = 0.48; 95% CI = 0.29, 0.80) than African Americans in urban areas. Whites had fewer screenings and dental visits in rural versus urban areas. There were mixed results for which racial/ethnic group had better access. Conclusions. Rural status confers additional disadvantage for most of the health care use measures, independently of poverty and health care supply.

Urban heat islands (UHIs) exacerbate the risk of heat-related mortality associated with global climate change. The intensity of UHIs varies with population size and mean annual precipitation, but a unifying explanation for this variation is lacking, and there are no geographically targeted guidelines for heat mitigation. Here we analyse summertime differences between urban and rural surface temperatures (Δ T s ) worldwide and find a nonlinear increase in Δ T s with precipitation that is controlled by water or energy limitations on evapotranspiration and that modulates the scaling of Δ T s with city size. We introduce a coarse-grained model that links population, background climate, and UHI intensity, and show that urban–rural differences in evapotranspiration and convection efficiency are the main determinants of warming. The direct implication of these nonlinearities is that mitigation strategies aimed at increasing green cover and albedo are more efficient in dry regions, whereas the challenge of cooling tropical cities will require innovative solutions. The effect of cities on urban climate (often warmer but sometimes cooler than their surroundings) is largely explained by local hydroclimate and patterns of city development.

With one billion people on the move or having moved in 2018, migration is a global reality, which has also become a political lightning rod. Although estimates indicate that the majority of global migration occurs within low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), the most prominent dialogue focuses almost exclusively on migration from LMICs to high-income countries (HICs). Nowadays, populist discourse demonises the very same individuals who uphold economies, bolster social services, and contribute to health services in both origin and destination locations. Those in positions of political and economic power continue to restrict or publicly condemn migration to promote their own interests. Meanwhile nationalist movements assert so-called cultural sovereignty by delineating an us versus them rhetoric, creating a moral emergency. In response to these issues, the UCL-Lancet Commission on Migration and Health was convened to articulate evidence-based approaches to inform public discourse and policy. The Commission undertook analyses and consulted widely, with diverse international evidence and expertise spanning sociology, politics, public health science, law, humanitarianism, and anthropology. The result of this work is a report that aims to be a call to action for civil society, health leaders, academics, and policy makers to maximise the benefits and reduce the costs of migration on health locally and globally. The outputs of our work relate to five overarching goals that we thread throughout the report. First, we provide the latest evidence on migration and health outcomes. This evidence challenges common myths and highlights the diversity, dynamics, and benefits of modern migration and how it relates to population and individual health. Migrants generally contribute more to the wealth of host societies than they cost. Our Article shows that international migrants in HICs have, on average, lower mortality than the host country population. However, increased morbidity was found for some conditions and among certain subgroups of migrants, (eg, increased rates of mental illness in victims of trafficking and people fleeing conflict) and in populations left behind in the location of origin. Currently, in 2018, the full range of migrants’ health needs are difficult to assess because of poor quality data. We know very little, for example, about the health of undocumented migrants, people with disabilities, or lesbian, gay, bisexual, transsexual, or intersex (LGBTI) individuals who migrate or who are unable to move. Second, we examine multisector determinants of health and consider the implication of the current sector-siloed approaches. The health of people who migrate depends greatly on structural and political factors that determine the impetus for migration, the conditions of their journey, and their destination. Discrimination, gender inequalities, and exclusion from health and social services repeatedly emerge as negative health influences for migrants that require cross-sector responses. Third, we critically review key challenges to healthy migration. Population mobility provides economic, social, and cultural dividends for those who migrate and their host communities. Furthermore, the right to the highest attainable standard of health, regardless of location or migration status, is enshrined in numerous human rights instruments. However, national sovereignty concerns overshadow these benefits and legal norms. Attention to migration focuses largely on security concerns. When there is conjoining of the words health and migration, it is either focused on small subsets of society and policy, or negatively construed. International agreements, such as the UN Global Compact for Migration and the UN Global Compact on Refugees, represent an opportunity to ensure that international solidarity, unity of intent, and our shared humanity triumphs over nationalist and exclusionary policies, leading to concrete actions to protect the health of migrants. Fourth, we examine equity in access to health and health services and offer evidence-based solutions to improve the health of migrants. Migrants should be explicitly included in universal health coverage commitments. Ultimately, the cost of failing to be health-inclusive could be more expensive to national economies, health security, and global health than the modest investments required. Finally, we look ahead to outline how our evidence can contribute to synergistic and equitable health, social, and economic policies, and feasible strategies to inform and inspire action by migrants, policy makers, and civil society. We conclude that migration should be treated as a central feature of 21st century health and development. Commitments to the health of migrating populations should be considered across all Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and in the implementation of the Global Compact for Migration and Global Compact on Refugees. This Commission offers recommendations that view population mobility as an asset to global health by showing the meaning and reality of good health for all. We present four key messages that provide a focus for future action.

With increasing incidence and mortality, cancer is the leading cause of death in China and is a major public health problem. Because of China's massive population (1.37 billion), previous national incidence and mortality estimates have been limited to small samples of the population using data from the 1990s or based on a specific year. With high-quality data from an additional number of population-based registries now available through the National Central Cancer Registry of China, the authors analyzed data from 72 local, population-based cancer registries (2009-2011), representing 6.5% of the population, to estimate the number of new cases and cancer deaths for 2015. Data from 22 registries were used for trend analyses (2000-2011). The results indicated that an estimated 4292,000 new cancer cases and 2814,000 cancer deaths would occur in China in 2015, with lung cancer being the most common incident cancer and the leading cause of cancer death. Stomach, esophageal, and liver cancers were also commonly diagnosed and were identified as leading causes of cancer death. Residents of rural areas had significantly higher age-standardized (Segi population) incidence and mortality rates for all cancers combined than urban residents (213.6 per 100,000 vs 191.5 per 100,000 for incidence; 149.0 per 100,000 vs 109.5 per 100,000 for mortality, respectively). For all cancers combined, the incidence rates were stable during 2000 through 2011 for males (+0.2% per year; P = .1), whereas they increased significantly (+2.2% per year; P < .05) among females. In contrast, the mortality rates since 2006 have decreased significantly for both males (-1.4% per year; P < .05) and females (-1.1% per year; P < .05). Many of the estimated cancer cases and deaths can be prevented through reducing the prevalence of risk factors, while increasing the effectiveness of clinical care delivery, particularly for those living in rural areas and in disadvantaged populations.

In China, mean body-mass index (BMI) and obesity in adults have increased steadily since the early 1980s. However, to our knowledge, there has been no reliable assessment of recent trends, nationally, regionally, or in certain population subgroups. To address this evidence gap, we present detailed analyses of relevant data from six consecutive nationally representative health surveys done between 2004 and 2018. We aimed to examine the long-term and recent trends in mean BMI and prevalence of obesity among Chinese adults, with specific emphasis on changes before and after 2010 (when various national non-communicable disease prevention programmes were initiated), assess how these trends might vary by sex, age, urban–rural locality, and socioeconomic status, and estimate the number of people who were obese in 2018 compared with 2004. We used data from the China Chronic Disease and Risk Factors Surveillance programme, which was established in 2004 with the aim to provide periodic nationwide data on the prevalence of major chronic diseases and the associated behavioural and metabolic risk factors in the general population. Between 2004 and 2018 six nationally representative surveys were done. 776 571 individuals were invited and 746 020 (96·1%) participated, including 33 051 in 2004, 51 050 in 2007, 98 174 in 2010, 189 115 in 2013, 189 754 in 2015, and 184 876 in 2018. After exclusions, 645 223 participants aged 18–69 years remained for the present analyses. The mean BMI and prevalence of obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) were calculated and time trends compared by sex, age, urban–rural locality, geographical region, and socioeconomic status. Standardised mean BMI levels rose from 22·7 kg/m2 (95% CI 22·5–22·9) in 2004 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·3–24·6) in 2018 and obesity prevalence from 3·1% (2·5–3·7) to 8·1% (7·6–8·7). Between 2010 and 2018, mean BMI rose by 0·09 kg/m2 annually (0·06–0·11), which was half of that reported during 2004–10 (0·17 kg/m2, 95% CI 0·12–0·22). Similarly, the annual increase in obesity prevalence was somewhat smaller after 2010 than before 2010 (6·0% annual relative increase, 95% CI 4·4–7·6 vs 8·7% annual relative increase, 4·9–12·8; p=0·13). Since 2010, the rise in mean BMI and obesity prevalence has slowed down substantially in urban men and women, and moderately in rural men, but continued steadily in rural women. By 2018, mean BMI was higher in rural than urban women (24·3 kg/m2vs 23·9 kg/m2; p=0·0045), but remained lower in rural than urban men (24·5 kg/m2vs 25·1 kg/m2; p=0·0007). Across all six surveys, mean BMI was persistently lower in women with higher levels of education compared with women with lower levels of education, but the inverse was true among men. Overall, an estimated 85 million adults (95% CI 70 million–100 million; 48 million men [95% CI 39 million–57 million] and 37 million women [31 million–43 million]) aged 18–69 years in China were obese in 2018, which was three times as many as in 2004. In China, the rise in mean BMI among the adult population appears to have slowed down over the past decade. However, we found divergent trends by sex, geographical area, and socioeconomic status, highlighting the need for a more targeted approach to prevent further increases in obesity in the Chinese general population. China National Key Research and Development Program, China National Key Project of Public Health Program, and Youth Scientific Research Foundation of the National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

The unique health and aging challenges of rural populations often go unnoticed. In fact, the rural United States is home to disproportionate shares of older and sicker people, there are large and growing rural–urban and within-rural mortality disparities, many rural communities are in population decline, and rural racial/ethnic diversity is increasing. Yet rural communities are not monolithic, and although some rural places are characterized by declining health, others have seen large improvements in population health. We draw on these realities to call for new research in five areas. First, research is needed to better describe health disparities between rural and urban areas and, because rural places are not monolithic, across rural America. Second, research is needed on how trends in rural population health and aging are affecting rural communities. Third, research is needed on the ways in which economic well-being and livelihood strategies interact with rural health and aging. Fourth, we need to better understand the health implications of the physical and social isolation characterizing many rural communities. Finally, we argue for new research on the implications of local natural environments and climate change for rural population health and aging.

Sarcopenia a recognised geriatric syndrome. This study aims to evaluate the prevalence of possible sarcopenia, sarcopenia and severe sarcopenia among older Chinese adults and to identify any associated factors for possible sarcopenia according to the updated diagnostic criteria of the Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia 2019 (AWGS 2019). We used data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). The main outcome of this study was possible sarcopenia. Handgrip strength was measured via a dynamometer. The muscle mass was estimated by anthropometric measures. Physical performance was measured by 5-time chair stand test and gait speed test. A multivariate logistic regression model with stepwise method was employed to identify factors associated with possible sarcopenia. A total of 6172 participants aged 60–94 years were included. The prevalence of possible sarcopenia, sarcopenia and severe sarcopenia was 38.5%, 18.6%, and 8.0%, respectively. Age, rural area, falls, higher C-reactive protein (CRP), and chronic diseases (including hypertension, chronic lung diseases, heart disease, psychiatric disease and arthritis) were associated with a higher risk of possible sarcopenia. Conversely, alcohol consumption, higher gait speed and high levels of hemoglobin were associated with decreased risk of possible sarcopenia. However, the associations between possible sarcopenia with alcohol consumption, heart disease, psychiatric disease and hemoglobin were not significant after Bonferroni correction. Our study reported a relatively high prevalence of sarcopenia among older Chinese population, and identified a range of factors associated with sarcopenia. We also found rural elders are more vulnerable to sarcopenia than urban elders. Additionally, we discovered systemic inflammation might be one of the contributing factors between sarcopenia and related comorbidities. We believe the findings of this study would help to identify individuals at high risk of sarcopenia early and therefore implement the prevention and treatment strategies to reduce the disease burden in China.